texas is the fastest growing state in the union
TRANSCRIPT
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The Future of Texas: The Fastest Growing State in the Union
Developed and presented by: Prof. Rodney Hill
Presidential Professor for Teaching Excellence, & Professor, Department of Architecture at Texas A&M University
& Dr. Jorge Vanegas
Dean, College of Architecture, & Professor, Department of Architecture at Texas A&M University; and
Research Professor, Texas Engineering Experiment Station at Texas A&M University System
HOWDY!
1 PART
We live in a world…
…full of intersections
…and how we handle these intersections can determine if we can
keep on going…
…or we crash…
So, imagine that you/we (or as they say… y’all)
live in Texas.
What is in the horizon
for all of us?
Predictions
Prognostications
Forecasts
Guesses
“It is said that the
present is pregnant with the future.”
Voltaire
… And the present is the offspring of the past…
We also need to remember that the Future arrives every second as today’s reality, and it does not have “Stop,” “Pause,” “Rewind,” “Fast Forward,” “Eject,” “Mute,”
or “Reset” buttons….
And when the future arrives…
It may cause us to…
FREEZE…
Or, it may cause us to want to…
FLEE…
Or, it may cause us to want to…
FIGHT…
Regardless, before it arrives, in facing the
future, we have choices we can
make…
We may choose to contribute to make the Future we want
happen, as…
ACTORS…
We may choose to just wait and see what Future will
happen, as…
SPECTATORS…
Or, when whatever Future arrives:
We may choose to ask “what happened?”
as…
CRITICS…
Or worse, when whatever Future arrives:
We may choose to just say “huh, something
happened?” as…
OBLIVIOUS BYSTANDERS…
And, will the choices we make allow us to ride the wave of the future as
individuals...?
Or be dragged under by it...?
Will the realities we will face along the way crush us...?
Or, will we be able to face them together with others, in teams or in
organizations...?
2 PART
While the U.S. as a whole won’t experience the perfect storm that popula8on growth will bring by 2050 like in Asia, Africa, India and
Central and South America, but Texas will!
The three largest states by popula8on are California, Texas and New York.
Texas is growing faster than any state in the union and will capture 25% of
US popula8on growth by 2050.
In June of 2014, Texas unemployment rate was 5.1%.
Texas has seen a 19% GDP compared to 5% for the USA.
From 2005-‐2010, Texas gained 636,639 residents from other states
and they brought, on net, $14.4 billion in adjusted gross income.
Texas has a AAA credit ra8ng from Standard and Poor.
Economics 21, ManhaYan Ins8tute Aug. 19, 2014
People moving to Texas from California or New York will
probably take a pay cut but but nonetheless enjoy a higher
disposable income. The Economist, Oct. 4, 2014
There are around 2000 people moving to Texas every day! Where are they going?
Texas will grow from 25 million to 55 million by 2050 and will increase the compe88on for water and electricity.
Aljazeera America, July 29, 2014
If you're hun8ng for a great city in which to work -‐-‐ or a place that's economically booming in general -‐-‐
then we've got a crop for you.
(Spoiler alert: Texas is the place to go.) Huffington Post, Jan. 13, 2015
Texas is has ten cites listed as the most
produc3ve & economically booming ci3es in America!
Aus8n and area are #2 Houston area is #7
Ft. Worth/Arlington, TX. Is #8 Dallas, TX. Is #9
San Antonio is #10
Fast Company lists the top 20 ci8es where crea8ve jobs are.
Aus8n is #1 Houston is #6 Dallas is #14 Fast Company, June 25, 2015
The top ten list of best ci8es for Hispanics/La8nos to thrive show
Houston, Dallas-‐Fort Worth, Aus8n and San Antonio.
The top ten list of best ci8es for Asian Americans to thrive show Houston,
Dallas-‐Ft. Worth, and Aus8n. Fast Company, June 11, 2015
Aus8n has set the pace for popula8on growth in the state. Its popula8on grew 37% in the
decade ending n 2010. Associated Press, March 7, 2015
Aus8n is number one and Houston is the number two most overvalued
housing market in the US.
If the roaring economy slows the real estate prices will likely just stagnate.
Real Estate Confiden8al, June 15, 2015
Houston is trying to build a city that is innova8ve, exci8ng,
entrepreneurial and sustainable.
As a result its popula8on of young college graduates grew more
quickly between 2000 & 2010 than any other major metropolis.
Fast Company, July 2015
The State of Texas Demographer says that migrants tend to be
younger, and can help maintain a high worker to re8ree ra8o.
Associated Press, March 7, 2015
35,000 people moved to Houston in 2013 and is second to only New
York City in total popula8on growth.
Houston was the first major city to regain all of their jobs aner the
crash, but as of 2013, Houston had also added two more jobs for every
one lost.
And in 2014, Houston had the highest job crea8on index score.
Houston has passed NYC to become the most ethnically
diverse city in the United States.
With 21 hospitals, eight academic and research ins8tu8ons, and 50 related organiza8ons, Houston has the largest medical center in the
en8re world.
Houston has more parks and green space than any other top 10
metropolitan area city.
Houston, long as a bas8on of the oil and gas industry, has also
become a green leader, geong 50% of its energy from renewable
sources. Fast Company, July 2015
Forbes said Houston will widely be considered America’s “next great global city” by 2023.
Houston has the most Fortune 500 companies outside of NYC.
In August, more new-‐home permits were issued in Houston than in the en8re state of California. Twice as much office space is being built in
Houston as in New York City. Bloomberg Businessweek, Dec. 22, 2014
At more than $500 billion, Houston’s regional economy is now the fourth-‐largest in the U.S. Over the past
decade, Houston has added more jobs—628,000—than exist in all of New Orleans.
In August, more new-‐home permits were issued in Houston than in the en8re state of California.
Twice as much office space is being built in Houston as in New York City.
Bloomberg Businessweek, Dec. 22, 2014
Houston won’t stop growing completely due to the oil prices.
Patrick Jankowski, the resident research economist at the Greater Houston Partnership, says Houston will create 62,900 jobs in 2015
despite losing about 9,000 energy jobs. Bloomberg Businessweek, Dec. 22, 2014
Today energy makes up 38 percent of Houston’s economy, says Jankowski.
Houston’s port is now the biggest in the U.S. Its Texas Medical Center is the largest medical
complex in the world. Growth in Houston has been so strong recently
that the supply of homes is s8ll 8ght. Bloomberg Businessweek, Dec. 22, 2014
Aner the plunge in oil prices, the Lone Star State has been able to
muddle through thanks to the s8ll-‐booming Dallas-‐Fort Worth metro region, The na8on’s fourth largest with nearly seven million people.
Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2015
Dallas-‐Ft. Worth lost more than 100,000 jobs during the recession, but it has added nearly
four 8mes that number since then.
Thanks to its thriving business-‐services and tech sectors, the area has added 36,000 jobs since October 2014, when oil prices started to
nosedive. Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2015
The migra8on of large financial companies ( State Farm, Liberty Mutual etc.) to DFW
will con8nue & may escalate. Toyota is moving to Plano, a Dallas suburb.
DFW will be 3rd largest economy in the USA by 2030, behind NYC & LA.
·∙
In Texas, oil and gas loom as a defining characteris8c, but the role they play in the state economy, while sizable, has diminished in recent years as other
industries, such as health care, biotechnology and sonware, have grown.
Oil and gas jobs make up only about 3 percent of nonagricultural jobs in Texas, a far lower share than government (16 percent) and educa8on and health
services (13 percent). New York Times, Dec. 26, 2014
The San Antonio metro area now has a burgeoning biotech sector and Aus8n has the lowest unemployment rate among the
na8on’s largest metro areas.
Because of its economic hen and size, Dallas will play a bigger role in determining
the rate of Texas’ growth. Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2015
Oil is only 10% of Texas economy today vs. 28% in 1980.
Dallas/Ft. Worth economy will have a net benefit from lower oil prices.
·∙
Texas has added nearly 1 million workers to payrolls since the trough of the recession, and its share of U.S. nonfarm payrolls now stands at 8.2% compared with
7.8% in 2008. Texas has gained 1 Million people from other states
since 2000.
Time Magazine, Oct. 2013: “More than any other state, Texas looks like the future.”
Business Insider, Nov. 23, 2013
“I foresee Texas being the economic magnet that it is,
con8nuing to grow and diversify its economy, so that any drop in the price of oil will be minimized,” said
Greg AbboY, the Governor of Texas.
New York Times, Dec. 26, 2014
Texas is paying one million dollars a year for a New York vault to store close to one billion worth of gold
bars.
The 2015 State Legislature voted to store it in Aus8n.
PBS NEWSHOUR, July 5, 2015
What could be innovated today that
will put Texas in business tomorrow?
Will Texas create the future or will Texas only react to immediate cri8cal events that could have been avoided through future
forecas8ng?
Can you build a city of 750,000 every year for the next 35 years in Texas?
How will you keep expanding present ci3es and deal with transporta3on, infrastructure,
water, energy and food? How many power plants will have to be built or what system(s) will be supplying the energy?
In Texas, will we populate the ci3es, and then plan them?
Currently, NO system can feasibly plan & create the
infrastructure for those ci8es or a construc8on system to build
ci8es at that speed.
This is an unprecedented era of accelera8ng change in human existence where the past will no longer predict the future.
Can you double the number of schools, hospitals and universi8es in 35 years in
Texas?
Who will pay for the construc8on?
Can you double the number of teachers and doctors in 35 years?
Katy, Texas, a suburb of Houston, will be larger than the city of PiYsburgh
within two years. The Katy school parking lots are being turned into classroom space with the
aid of portable buildings. The Houston Chronicle, Sept. 23, 2014
Enrollment in Texas Colleges and Universi8es is around 1.5 million students in 83 ins8tu8ons of
higher educa8on in 2014. The popula8on of Texas will double in 35 years. What prepara8ons does Texas need to take now
to house the expected increase?
Texas has around 1,030 school districts that serve 5,151,925 students in K-‐12.
With popula8on predicted to double in 35 years, what does the State of Texas have to do now to
meet the needs of the ci8zens?
Texas ranks 46th in educa8on funding per student in the United States and 30th in teacher salaries.
The Texas legislature has already reduced school funding resul8ng in loss of teachers and won’t fund new medical school graduates residency programs resul8ng in many of the graduates going to other states who will gladly pay for their internships.
They usually stay in the state that funds them.
Texas ranks 45th na8onally in physician to popula8on ra8o.
With the global shortage of physicians, nurses, therapists and related healthcare personnel, how will hospitals change and morph to insure proper healthcare for an
expanding popula3on?
Texas has about 630 hospitals with 83,000 licensed beds.
With popula8on doubling in 35 years, what plans must Texas take to maintain quality healthcare for the State
of Texas?
Texas leads the na8on in the most uninsured for health care.
Texas ranks dead last in record keeping security!
With the growth of Texas and double the number of cars, will commu8ng be feasible with forecastable gridlocks?
Imagine increasing the number of automobiles by double or more in
Texas ci8es by 2040.
That is 25 years to build the infrastructure, roads and/or rapid transporta8on system to avoid
gridlock!
Houston, Texas
Most of the Worst Highways For Traffic in Texas Are in Houston!
The Texas A&M Transporta8on Ins8tute released its annual list of the most congested highways in the state
this week. You can probably guess where they are already if you've ever driven in Houston, DFW, or Aus8n!
Texas Monthly, Sept 11, 2014
Dallas, Texas
Air pollu8on kills more people each year than any disease.
4 million people is the es8mated total.
Houston and Dallas/Ft. Worth rank #6 & #8 for most polluted ci8es in the US.
The Economist, Sept. 22, 2014
Aus8n, Texas
Houston and Dallas are Texas’ biggest popula8on centers, but the Lone Star state’s capital city ranked higher than both of its major metropolitan areas in
the INRIX traffic study.
Aus8n ranked fourth for gridlock in the 2014 study and third for the worst ci8es to drive in the U.S.
The Hill, Nov. 30, 2014
Bullet trains-‐monorails
Imagine over double the number of people in Texas by 2050 and the
infrastructure, water, food and energy needed to support those numbers.
Urban sprawl could result taking over farmland and crea8ng more
conges8on. Think condos and planned urban
centers instead of suburban sprawl.
Ci8es and their inhabitants’ consump8on account for about 70% of global emissions.
They are also where almost all the world’s net popula8on growth will occur in the next 20 years.
Ci8es must be encouraged to grow dense, not spread out, with good public transport, not clogged highways.
Sprawl wastes money. It ends up subsidized through the provision of more extensive systems of roads, sewers and the like; it reduces the gains in
produc8vity that agglomera8on provides. The report reckons that sprawl costs America $400 billion a
year and quotes research from China that says labor produc8vity would rise 9% if its ci8es were denser.
The Economist, Sept. 22, 2014
Working from home with high speed Internet and virtual-‐reality could ease
the impact.
AT&T has 40% of its workforce working from home.
������������
Virtual office benefits from home offices:���
Less city infrastructure���Less office buildings required ���
Less freeways needed ���Less cost for gasoline/cars ���
������
Once we have full-immersion virtual-reality environments incorporating all of the senses which will be feasible by the
late 2020s, there will be no reason to utilize real offices.���
Real estate will become virtual. ���Ray Kurzweil
What will that do to migration & demographic patterns?���
������������������
What new jobs will that create?
���������
What will VR do to the hospitality industry when an international board
member or speaker can appear in person as a hologram instead of in
person? ���What about virtual classrooms?
By 2025-‐2030 over 65 popula8on will double in the U.S. and will live longer than an any previous genera8on.
U.S. Census Bureau
A graph of global life expectancy over 3me looks like an escalator rising
smoothly.
With each passing year, the newly born live about three months longer
than those born the prior year. The Atlan8c, Oct. 2014
There is a Silver Tsunami sweeping through Texas and the
world. This means innova8on at the intersec8on of health care and
technology.
Texas is expected to become both older and more diverse in the
coming decades, with the elderly and Hispanics in par8cular taking up a greater propor8on of the
popula8on.
Texas, which grew 20.6 percent overall since 2000, had a 25.5 percent increase among residents 65 and older and a 28.3 percent increase among people 85 and older.
Texas' 2.6 million popula3on of people 65 and older accounted for about 10 percent of the
state's total popula3on. Statesman, Nov. 30, 2011
Nursing homes and re3rement communi3es will be in high demand as numbers double.
There is NO more fresh water in the world today than 2000 years ago when the popula8on was 3%
of the present!
Water will become a more pressing problem than oil, and the quan3ty, quality and distribu3on of water will pose significant scien3fic, technological and ecological difficul3es as well as serious
poli3cal and economic challenges.
By 2040, at least 3.5 billion people will run short of water. By 2050, fully 2/3’s of the world’s
popula8on could be living in regions with chronic shortages of
water.
Globally there has been a three-‐fold popula3on increase in the past century and a six-‐fold increase in
water consump3on.
By 2030, there will be 40% less water than is needed due to popula3on and
GDP growth and demand. Washington Post, Aug. 5, 2014
The link between water, food and energy is strong!
The average human drinks 4 liters of water per day while 500 8mes as much water is required to produce our daily food totals.
As murky water snakes through a man-‐made wetland between Dallas and Houston, its
shallow ponds of lush vegeta3on slowly filter out phosphorous and nitrates un3l, a week later, the water runs clear as a creek into the
area drinking supply.
It is supplying an addi3onal 65,000 gallons per day to the Richland-‐Chambers Reservoir.
Associated Press, Aug. 4, 2014
According to the World Water Council, recycled sewage will be a source of drinking water in ci8es around the
world within the next three decades. Washington Post, Aug. 5, 2014
Wichita Falls, the Texas city of more than 104,000, suffering the worst drought on record, is about to
become the first place in Texas to treat sewage and pump it directly
back to residents. Bloomberg, April 28, 2014
Big Springs, Texas and El Paso are also recycling sewage for drinking
water. In 20 years, the majority of ci8es in Texas will be drinking recycled
sewage water.
Freshwater in the Eagle Ford Shale -‐-‐ a geological forma8on that encompasses 30 Texas coun8es,
including Brazos -‐-‐ is being drawn from the aquifers 2.5 8mes faster than the replenish rate, according to key findings from a Texas A&M Bush School of Government
and Public Service study.
As a result, and as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," ac8vity con8nues to grow within the massive shale,
researchers who conducted the study es8mated Texas could face a 2.7-‐trillion-‐gallon water shorxall by 2060.
The Eagle, Dec. 16, 2014
Major ci8es are taking water from agriculture to meet the needs of
growing cites.
Mexico City, Cairo, Beijing, San Diego, Los Angeles, Las Vegas,
Denver and El Paso.
Farmers surrounding the major ci3es have found that the price of water far exceeds the value of the
crops they can produce. Ci8es are buying water rights from
farmers and ranchers. The highly produc3ve land owned
by these farmers will become wasteland.
The Rio Grande is disappearing. Demand for water is growing as average temperatures rise faster than they
ever have in the past 11,000 years.
The water that remains is being fought over by the countries and states that agreed to share the river. At the same 3me, a border fence is being built along its
banks. Texas Tribune, Oct. 16, 2014
Some3mes the Rio Grande doesn’t make it to the Gulf of
Mexico.
Aus8n City Council predicts that Lake Travis will run dry by 2016.
Major water restric8ons will be ordered to slow the demise.
The water level is 48% of capacity.
The 2000s were the hoYest decade on record for the US and 2012 was the hoYest year ever
on record.
The Western drought of recent years represents the driest condi8ons in 800 years and cost Texas and Oklahoma $10 billion in agriculture in 2011
& 2012. Mother Jones, May 6, 2014
On May 14, the Drought Center reported that “excep8onal drought” had completely
dissipated from Texas and Oklahoma for the first 8me since July 2012.
The Union of Concerned Scien8sts noted that the combina8on of a burgeoning El Niño and record-‐breaking ocean surface temperatures in April likely “revs up the hydrological cycle” in
the region for climate change. Scien8fic American, May 27, 2015
In May of 2014, 71% of Texas was in severe drought.
In May of 2015, Texas is dealing with extensive flooding due to the weYest month in recorded Texas
history. Wall Street Journal, May29, 2015
“We’re not ready to call this drought history,” said LCRA Execu8ve Vice President of Water.
“We’re in much beYer shape in terms of water supply than we were just a month ago, but we don’t want anyone to put their guard down too
soon.
While we are seeing higher lake levels than we have seen in some 8me, we also know from history that droughts can persist aner heavy
rains. KXAN News, July 16, 2015
When the atmosphere heats up by 1 degrees C, we can expect three to four
8mes as many superstorms. But if forecasts hold true and
temperatures rise by 2 degrees C, the number of superstorms will increase
tenfold by 2100. The Futurist, Jan. 2014
Last month, 2014, was the warmest August globally since records began being kept in
1880, NASA reported Monday. The globe just keeps warming.
Climate Progress, Sept. 15, 2014
Ci8es are heat islands and can be 14% higher in temperature than the surrounding areas.
Buildings, roads, lack of plants that cool the air by evapora8ng water and heat generated by lots
of human bodies. Business Insider, Aug. 29, 2013
Rapidly warming oceans today could destabilize methane sediments and result in another massive
release of methane that could raise global temperatures by more than 10.8 degrees F.
The ecological effects of such a temperature rise would be more like dystopian science fic8on than scien8fic thinking about climate change to date.
The Futurist, Aug. 2014
According the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 73 million acres of farmland in the United States were taken out of produc8on between 1990 and
2012. Similar trends can be seen worldwide.
The reasons are many, but three broad categories are deser8fica8on, rising oceans, and
urbaniza8on. MIT Technology Review, March 2015
We are truly living in a state of denial when the greater Houston area con3nues to push south into areas that are highly vulnerable to storm surge, the Port of Houston at the head of
Galveston Bay con3nues to expand and the City of Galveston refuses to adopt a setback policy for new construc3on along the Gulf shoreline.
CITE, winter 2014
An analysis of 52 3de gauges in communi3es stretching from Portland, Maine to Freeport, Texas shows that most of these communi3es will experience a steep increase in the number and severity of 3dal flooding events over the coming decades, with significant implica3ons for property, infrastructure, and daily life in
affected areas. Scien8fic American, Oct. 8, 2014
Global warming is also exacerba3ng extreme rainfall, because on a warmer planet, the air
can hold more water vapor.
The U.S. has lost coastline over the last century and over the next century, sea level is
projected to increase by one to four feet. Mother Jones, May 6, 2014
In January of 2014, the Houston Chronicle said that scien8sts
predict that Galveston will be two thirds its size within 30 years due to rising waters, eroding beaches
and land subsiding.
A proposed “Ike Dike” to protect the Galveston/Houston area from hurricane storm surges
should incorporate ameni8es such as business parks, public spaces and pedestrian
thoroughfares, elements that could s8mulate economic and social opportuni8es while enhancing the earthwork’s visual appeal,
concludes research funded by Texas A&M’s Ins3tute for Sustainable Coastal Communi3es.
Texas A&M Today, June 18, 2015
Climatologists who have studied both the history and the computer models on Texas
rainfall have concluded that the state is headed for a very long period-‐-‐possibly marked in
hundreds of years-‐-‐wherein rainfall con8nues to decrease, and more of the state becomes
desert-‐like, a process known as deser8fica8on. State of Texas Drought Project, May 17, 2014
More drought means more wildfires and in 2011, Arizona and New Mexico had the largest wildfires in recorded history, affec8ng more
than 694,000 acres. Texas saw unprecedented wildfires and 3.8
million acres consumed in the state. Mother Jones, May 6, 2014
Texas is uniquely vulnerable to a changing climate.
It’s no longer an issue that maYers only to the polar bear in the Arc8c or to poor people living
on low-‐lying islands in the South Seas. We are already in the crosshairs of nearly every type of weather-‐ and climate-‐related natural
disaster you can imagine. Climate change is ratche8ng up our
vulnerabili8es to unprecedented levels.
Texas Observer, Dec. 18, 2015
Texas has enough wind power and solar energy to power the na8on.
Texas is the No. 1 producer of wind energy in the United States, with nearly 13,000 megawaYs of
installed power and over 1 million megawaYs of as-‐yet-‐untapped poten8al.
Last spring, Texas broke record aner record for the most electricity ever generated by wind energy in the
state Texas Observer, Dec. 18, 2015
Texas isn’t a leader in solar energy—yet—but there are over 300 companies in the state
working to change that, and Texas is the fastest-‐growing in terms of new solar energy.
According to the Solar Energy Industries Associa3on, Texas is the state to watch, with enough solar poten3al to power not just the
United States, but the en3re world. Texas Observer, Dec. 18, 2015
Texas is already a leader in low-‐carbon technology. Texas Tech is home to the Na8onal Wind Ins8tute.
UT-‐Aus8n is a world leader in carbon capture and advanced lithium-‐ion baYeries.
Other Texas universi8es offer exper8se in advanced biofuels, geothermal energy and advanced materials. It’s hard to imagine a future for Texas where energy
doesn’t play a central role. The ques8on is whether we can rise to the challenge of preparing for a changing climate and a carbon-‐free
economy. Texas Observer, Dec. 18, 2015
Construc3on begins in Texas on world’s largest carbon capture facility.
The Petra Nova project is located near Houston, Texas and is a joint venture between the U.S.
DOE, NRG Energy and JX Nippon. With a current price tag topping $470 million, the project is expected to capture up to 90% of emissions
from 240 MW of electricity genera8on capacity. Scien8fic American, July 18, 2014
41 percent of all freshwater consumed in the U.S. was for thermoelectric cooling.
Power plants produce excess heat, requiring cooling cycles that use water.
Only wind and solar voltaic energy produc3on require minimal water.
The Washington Post, Aug. 5, 2014
The only reason Texas didn’t experience rolling blackouts in the summer of 2011 was wind turbines producing 10-‐18% of energy needs.
In March of 2014, Texas produced 37% of its electricity by wind thanks to a new
transmission line. Washington Post, Aug. 5, 2014
With the increase of 27 million people in 35 years, will Texas need to morph to solar and wind energy to meet the energy needs and cut down on greenhouse emissions?
December of 2014, The Texas Tribune said in 15-‐20 years oil
prices will have not determine the price of energy in Texas with the technological improvements and growth of solar and wind turbines.
Electricity u8li8es are facing “disrup8ve challenges” comparable to the way the fixed-‐line telephone industry was
shaken up by mobile.
The u3li3es worry that as more businesses and households use solar, wind and other sources to generate their own power, they will lose customers and revenues, while s3ll
bearing the costs of running the grid.
The u8li8es would then have to charge higher rates, losing more customers, worsening their posi8on further. In the industry, they call it the “death spiral”.
Financial Times, Jan 13, 2015
The City of Georgetown and Georgetown U8li8es Systems announced Wednesday it has signed an agreement to make it one of the first communi8es in the U.S. powered exclusively by
solar and wind energy. The City of Pflugerville is crea8ng a 800 acre
solar collector farm to provide all of its energy. March 18, 2015
Oil & gas may not be a death spiral, says Lyndon Rive, chief execu8ve of SolarCity, a solar company, but it is a “change spiral”.
“When you’ve had a monopoly for a hundred years, and you’ve never seen change, change may seem like death to
you.” Financial Times, Jan. 13, 2015
Over the past four years, the numbers have risen threefold for businesses and fourfold for homes,
as the cost of solar power has plunged thanks to efficiency
improvements. Financial Times, Jan. 13, 2015
IKEA is leading the way in becoming a zero-‐energy company by 2020.
IKEA has wind farms that already power 38 stores, a factory and service center in the U.S. and has put aside 2 billion dollars to go zero-‐
energy world wide. Washington Post, April 15, 2014
Key Findings:
ü Cri3cal water supplies are being drawn down faster than they are being replenished.
ü Higher concentra8ons of pollutants in aquifers make drinking water increasingly unsafe.
ü Aging water pipes and infrastructure are crea3ng a heightened danger of sinkholes.
ü Using water for irriga8on and fossil fuel extrac8on is increasing strains on the water supply, and raising food and energy prices.
ü Desaliniza3on — increasingly being used to supplement fresh water needs — is extremely energy-‐intensive and expensive.
A far worse rendi8on of the water crisis will inevitably unfold across Las Vegas, Southern California, North Texas and the Arizona ci8es of Phoenix and Tucson.
Aquifers that should have lasted un8l 2050 are being pumped dry. Natural News, Dec. 3, 2014
Another example of major concern and consequence is deple8on of the largest and most important underground source of water in the U.S., the Ogallala Aquifer under the High Plains stretching from southern South Dakota through parts of Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and northern Texas.
The aquifer has been the major source of water for municipal and industrial development for decades. Most significantly it has been cri3cal for agriculture in the American heartland oh referred to as
the bread basket not just of the U.S., but the world.
Unfortunately, the era of blindly assuming the largess of the aquifer reflects an unlimited source of water is des8ned to come to end.
For decades the Ogallala has tapped at rates thousands of 3mes greater than it is being restored. Washington Post, March 22, 2013
The Ogallala Aquifer was formed about 10 million years ago when water flowed onto the plains from retrea8ng glaciers and Rocky Mountain streams.
For all intents and purposes, it is no longer being recharged. Once it’s gone, it’s gone, end of story. The current es8mate is that, if irriga8on demands con8nue to exploit the aquifer at rates comparable on average to those over the last 10 years, it will be essen8ally used up in only 25 years.
Washington Post, March 22, 2013
The present rate of pumping from the Ogallala Aquifer will deplete the
water source by 2040. If conserva8on methods are put into place, it will s8ll be gone by 2070 and
will take 6,000 years to refill. Washington Post, Aug. 10, 2012
If the vast aquifers in Saudi or the arid southwestern U.S. are depleted, the loss of irriga8on water means
the end of agriculture.
A decade ago, prospec3ve water marketers easily secured the rights to pump more than 20 billion gallons of water annually from the Carrizo-‐Wilcox aquifer in Central Texas’
Burleson County.
The company now holding those rights, BlueWater, is nego8a8ng a $3 billion deal to send much of that water to
San Antonio. Texas Tribune, Sept. 3, 2014
The San Antonio Water System board unanimously approved a $3.4 billion contract to pipe in 50,000 acre-‐
feet, or 16 billion gallons, of water a year from underneath Central Texas' Burleson County star8ng in
2019.
The contract is with two companies, Aus8n-‐based BlueWater and the Spanish company Abengoa, whose
joint venture is called the Vista Ridge pipeline. Texas Tribune, Sept. 30, 2014
Texas, which consumes a few million acre feet of water per year, has 2.7 billion acre-‐feet of brackish water.
Why wait for breakthroughs in materials to make desalina3on widely affordable?
Instead, pump that brackish water a rela8vely short distance to the surface and then desalinate it.
In many places this might slash energy use and make desalina8on more affordable.
MIT Technology Review, Sept. 23, 2014
The torren8al storms of May 2015 brought trillions of gallons of water of which 3 trillion flowed into the Gulf of Mexico created a dead zone and another 2 trillion gallons will likely evaporate from state reservoirs by year’s end.
The lost water would be enough to serve Texas’ booming popula8on for an en8re year.
Associated Press, June 15, 2015
Widely implemented aquifer storage and recovery should be among the major addi8ons
to the state’s water infrastructure.
A major benefit of aquifers is that their water doesn’t evaporate, which makes them an ideal water source in warmer climates. Pumping sta8ons can inject water into aquifers during wet 8mes and withdraw it when needed.
Associated Press, June 15, 2015
Texas’ popula8on is expected to grow by 82% in the next half century and its water needs by
more than 40% by 2060.
With enough pumping facili8es, the state could draw on an es8mated storage capacity of about 163 trillion gallons-‐15 8mes its current drinking
water reservoir capacity. Associated Press, June 15, 2015
The water scarcity could also pose huge problems for
the burgeoning domes3c energy industry.
A recent Ceres research paper found that a lot of hydraulic fracturing— a process that uses tons of water — is taking place in water-‐scarce regions, with nearly 47% of wells located in highly-‐stressed water basins, including 92% of wells in Colorado and 51% of wells in
Texas. Business Insider, May 22, 2013
Texas is caught in the perfect storm of drought. Years of unregulated expansion and sprawl, limitless groundwater pumping, and poor
conserva8on management prac8ces have set up the state for disaster.
Now come the effects of climate change, with increased temperatures and evapora3on rates,
and the result is a disaster. State of Texas Drought Project, May 17, 2014
You life style will have to be adjusted on lush lawns and tropical landscapes.
Unless you can pay 4X or more for water, your lawn and landscape will be rocks and na8ve
plants.
Look at Aus8n Green Energy requirements.
Google Futurist Ray Kurzweil notes that solar power has been doubling every two years for the past 30 years, as costs have been dropping. He says solar energy is only six doublings — or less than 14 years — away from mee8ng 100
percent of today’s energy needs. KurzweilAI, Sept, 21, 2014
The prices of solar panels have fallen 75 percent in the past five years alone and will fall much further as the technologies to create them improve and scale of produc8on increases.
By 2020, solar energy will be price-‐compe88ve with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world.
The Washington Post, Sept. 20, 2014
In places such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, Australia, and the Southwest United States, residen8al-‐scale solar produc8on has already reached “grid parity” with average residen8al
electricity prices. The Washington Post, Sept. 20, 2014
MIT researchers say they have developed a material that comes very close to the “ideal” for conver8ng solar energy to heat (for conversion to electricity).
It should absorb virtually all wavelengths of light that reach Earth’s surface from the sun — but not much of the rest of the spectrum, since that would increase the energy that is re-‐radiated by the material, and thus lost
to the conversion process. KurzweilAI, Oct. 1, 2014
Paving parking lots with solar panels-‐are streets and highways next?
Wired, May 8, 2014
Wind power, for example, has also come down sharply in price and is now compe88ve with the cost of new coal-‐burning power plants in the United
States. The Washington Post, Sept. 2014
Texas is the na8onal leader in wind energy-‐with more installed
capacity, more wind turbines and more jobs than any other state. The wind energy industry in Texas has created thousands of jobs and
provided billions of dollars in economic benefits.
Genera8ng wind power creates no emissions and uses virtually no water.
The water consump8on savings from wind projects in Texas total more than 7.8 billion
gallons of water a year.
The wind power installed in Texas will avoid 23,103, 000 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions a year, the equivalent of
taking 4,075,000 cars off the road. American Wind Energy Associa8on, Sept. 29, 2014
Eole Water has modified the tradi8onal wind
turbine to create an appliance that can manufacture water from air.
They have a prototype in the desert near Abu Dhabi that produce 62 liters of water an hour
and generates electricity. CNN World, April 30, 2012
If solar power is to become a primary source of electricity around the world, we’ll need cheap ways to
store energy from the sun when it isn’t shining. A paper published in the journal Science this week
reports a major step toward such a system.
Researchers have developed a device that cheaply and efficiently converts the energy in sunlight into
hydrogen, which can be used as a fuel and is easily stored.
MIT Technology Review, Sept. 24, 2014
Tesla is marke8ng storage baYeries for commercial and home use for solar panels and wind generated
electricity.
There will be disrup8on of the en8re fossil-‐fuel industry, star8ng with u8lity
companies — which will face declining demand and then bankruptcy.
Several of them see the wri8ng on the wall.
The smart ones are embracing solar and wind power.
Others are lobbying to stop the progress of solar power — at all costs.
The Washington Post, Sept. 20, 2014
We will go from deba8ng incen8ves for installing clean energies to deba8ng subsidies for u8lity
companies to keep their opera8ons going.
The Washington Post, Sept. 20, 2014
The combina8on of water scarcity, global warming reducing crop
produc8on and two billion people added to the earth will result in
global food scarcity.
Can you live on less food in the future?
The UN Food and Agriculture Organiza8on reports that 87% of global fish stocks are either
fully exploited or overexploited.
Oceans absorb about 33% of human-‐generated CO2, but their ability to con8nue doing this is being reduced by changing acidity and the die-‐offs of coral reefs and other living systems.
The Millennium Project, Sept. 2014
Ocean Aquiculture and Agriculture should be a priority for Texas with
its extensive coastline.
Energy, food and water are interconnected and an abundance of one enables an abundance of the others, a shortage of one can create a shortage of the others.
Scien8fic American, Jan. 2015
Food prices are at their highest point in history and are likely to con8nue increasing over the long term if there
are no major innova8ons in produc8on and changes in
consump8on. The Futurist, Dec. 2011
The average US household spends 10% of annual income on
food. The World Bank forecasts the average U.S. household will
spend 25% of annual income on food within ten years.
When food prices increase by 2.5X by 2020, how will Texas feed the popula8on within the State?
What will it do for energy, water, food, transporta3on and housing? Texas is the fastest growing state
in the union.
Global temperature rise greater than 2 degrees Celsius will compromise food supplies globally. Without more mi8ga8on than is being done today, the temperature is more likely than not
to rise by 4 degrees C by 2100. Scien8fic American, UN Report, Nov. 6, 2014
For every 1% rise in temperature above the norm during the growing season, farmers can expect a 10% decline in wheat,
rice, and corn yields.
CO2 inhibits wheat, barley, rice, maize, potatoes, peas and soybeans assimila8on of nitrate into
proteins, demonstra8ng the the nutri8onal quality of food crops is in jeopardy as climate change
intensifies.
The crops will loose 8% of their protein in the next few decades.
Wheat, in par8cular, will be a problem, because it provides 1/5 of all protein in the world’s human diet.
The Californian, Fall 2014
It is predicted that temperatures will rise 3.6F
this century and that means a twelve to twenty percent fall in global food
produc8on.
Tidal & Wave Energy promise gives Texas an edge.
Ocean Aquiculture and Agriculture should be a priority for Texas with its extensive coastline.
The next major food revolu8on will be ver8cal agriculture, in which we grow food in ver8cal buildings
rather than horizontal land:
Ver8cal agriculture will be able to recycle all nutrients, capture all pollutants, and require no use of an8bio8cs
and pes8cides. Today over one third of usable land is devoted to agriculture (70% of which is for animals for meat
produc3on). Ver8cal agriculture will free up almost all of this.
KurzweilAI, Oct. 10, 2014
We need to build the infrastructure of the future, not just patch up that of the past. Failure to do so will only stall
and hold back recovery. The Great Reset-‐Richard Florida
ü Change is challenging. ü Change is thrilling. ü Change can usher in great
trepida3on. ü Change is everywhere. ü Change is inevitable.
The world’s biggest problems will create the
world’s greatest opportuni3es!
3 PART
In closing…
… we have attempted to offer you the following
three key learning takeaways in answering
the following fundamental question:
What can we do to face the future…?
(1) We need to be Healthy…
(Adapted from Natrass & Altamore)
Society���Today
Unsustainable Direction
Society���Today
Unsustainable Direction
ACTION Margin
for Action
Stabilize
Reverse
(Adapted from Natrass & Altamore)
(2) We need to be Observant...
* Based on the “the boiling frog” analogy…
(3) We need to be Prepared…
Learning/ Teaching
Engagement (Practice, Outreach,
and Service)
Research/ Creative Work/
Scholarship Researching what is taught and how
Transdisciplinarity
Teaching what is researched
The FUTURE
The FUTURE
Service Learning
CARC Students Other TAMU Students Other U.S. Students
International Students
Continuing Education
AEC Professionals Other Professionals
Government Officials The Community
K-12 Education
Vocational and Community
College Education
Traditional Formal University Education
Disciplinary and Interdisciplinary
Bachelor, Master, and Doctoral Levels
The K–Grey life-long learning education pipeline: Multiple Learner Constituencies
Workforce Learners (with a high school degree or higher)
Workforce Learners (without a formal degree at any level)
Pre–K
High School Degree
2 Yr. College Degree
4 Yr. University Degree (Bachelors)
Graduate Degree (Masters)
Doctoral Degree
Grey
High School Non-graduates
College Non-graduates
University Non-graduates
Graduate Studies Non-graduates
Doctoral Studies Non-graduates
Post-Doctoral Work
The FUTURE
