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2016 Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map Risk of terrorism and political violence reduces in Asia Pacific region

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Aon Risk Solutions 2016 Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map: Risk of terrorism and political violence reduces in Asia Pacific region 2

Asia PacificWhile the threat of a terrorist attack is still very real in certain areas of the Asia Pacific, the region has seen several key country risk levels drop or remain low for 2016, according to Aon’s Terrorism and Political Violence Map, created in collaboration with The Risk Advisory Group.

This year Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar all reported a decrease in risk from high to moderate while Australia’s risk level remained low. Terrorism is cited as the main concern in Australia and Thailand and while the political environment in both Philippines and Myanmar has stablished somewhat, civil unrest and political violence are still the principal threats the countries face.

AustraliaWhile the country risk level remains low for 2016 (in line with North America and the majority of Western Europe), there remains a credible threat of terrorist incidents in the country. A lone-actor attack at a New South Wales police station and at least three foiled terrorist plots in the last 12 months underline the continued intent of militant sympathisers or cells to mount attacks within the country.

Australian police have conducted highly publicised raids countrywide as part of Operation Appleby, a counterterrorism effort involving federal and state law enforcement, aimed at disrupting planning around terrorist attacks. Following the attacks last year, as of Q2 2016, the government assesses a terrorist attack is ‘probable’.

For the wider peril perspective (political violence & SRCCMD), there is a minimal risk of civil unrest and armed conflict; terrorism remains the driver for the country rating at this time.

PhilippinesThe overall score has been lowered for the country from high to moderate, but there remains the potential for incidents relating to each of the three perils measured by the map (terrorism & sabotage, SRCCMD and political violence). The reduction in the score reflects a decline in the overall number of terrorist attacks in the country, and our assessment that the prevailing threat of political violence in much of the country has declined during President Aquino’s tenure. The south – principally Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago - remains high risk.

Specific risks remain – particularly ahead of national elections in 2016. Political and anti-foreign protests have taken place within the last 12 months, including in Metro Manila. Militant Islamist separatist groups remain active in the south, and although they are predominantly contained in this area several abductions targeted foreign nationals in the Philippines in 2015. Meanwhile, the communist rebel New People’s Army continued its insurgency in rural areas countrywide, occasionally targeting commercial operations in remote locations.

Aon Risk Solutions 2016 Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map: Risk of terrorism and political violence reduces in Asia Pacific region 3

Thailand

Thailand’s country risk level was lowered from high to moderate this year. Tight political and social controls under the military government mean that a recurrence of major unrest in Bangkok is unlikely, for now, and with the junta holding a firm grip on power, the prospect of regime instability is also reduced.

The threat of terrorism remains high in the far-southern provinces primarily. However, following the Bangkok bombing in August 2015, there remains a legitimate threat of terrorist attacks in the capital, as well as tourist areas.

MyanmarThe country risk level for Myanmar has been lowered from high to moderate this year after the country’s general election passed peacefully in late 2015. Overall, this development contributes to a declining risk of civil unrest and political violence.

The improvement in the overall rating also reflects a decline in the incidence of terrorist attacks and of communal violence last year. The risk of incidents relating to all three measured perils remains, with the potential for sudden outbreaks of unrest, further terrorist incidents, as well as a breakdown in what has so far been an orderly political transition from military to civilian rule.

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