tenva ankara, 9 september 2014 mediterranean energy perspectives mep turkey
TRANSCRIPT
TENVA
Ankara, 9 September 2014
MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY PERSPECTIVES
MEP Turkey
Provides energy supply/demand outlook to 2030
by sectorby fuel
Two energy demand scenarios: Conservative ScenarioProactive Scenario
CO2 emissions
Energy import bill
Energy investment requirements
MEP TURKEY
The Conservative Scenario takes into current policies and ongoing projects, but adopts a cautious approach regarding the implementation of new policy measures and planned projects.
The Proactive Scenario assumes strong efforts to diversify the energy supply mix to favor domestic energy resources, clean energy technologies and prompt implementation of energy demand management programs.
THE ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIOS
Setting main model assumptions
4
Population
2013-2023: 0.9%2023-2030: 0.8%
GDP
2013-2018: IMF WEO2018-2030: 4.1%
Energy prices
International
Domestic
AN OVERVIEW OFOVERALL RESULTS
ANA BAŞLIKLAR
6
SEKTÖREL ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, EKONOMİNİN YAPISINI YANSITMAYA DEVAM EDECEK
KÖMÜRÜN STRATEJİK SEÇİMİ
PETROLE BAĞIMLILIK DEVAM EDECEK
DOĞAL GAZIN GELECEĞİ BİR YOL AYRIMINDA
ELEKTRİK TALEBİ KONTROL ALTINA ALINABILIR
YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ POTANSİYELİ BÜYÜK KAZANIMLAR VADEDİYOR
FOSİL YAKIT KAYNAKLI KİRLİLİK BÜYÜYEN BİR SORUN OLMAYA DEVAM EDECEK
İTHALATA BAĞIMLILIK ENERJİ FATURASINI YÜKSELTECEK
ENERJİ SEKTÖRÜ BÜYÜK YATIRIMLAR GEREKTİRECEK
ULUSLARARASI ENERJİ MERKEZİ OLARAK TÜRKİYE
ENERGY DEMAND AND GDP
Energy demand is set to double in the Conservative Scenario. 20% less energy would be needed in Proactive Scenario.
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
billion 2005 USD using exchange rates
Mtoe
Energy demand-Proactive Scenario
Energy demand-Conservative Scenario
GDP
PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL TYPE
Turkey’s energy future will remain fossil fuel based, although the share of RES would increase to 15% in PS.
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50
100
150
200
250
1990 2012 CS-2023CS-2030PS-2023PS-2030
Mtoe
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas32%
30%
29% 22%
25%
23%
28%
29%
31%6%
6%
10%
4%
4%
5%9%
7%
PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR
More energy will continue to be consumed to generate electricity than any other sector.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2012 2023CS 2030CS 2023PS 2030PS
Agriculture
Commercial & Public Services
Other transformation, own use & losses
Transport
Residential
Industry
Input to power generation
PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION
Will not increase as fast as demand
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110
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mtoe 2012$ bn
ANNUAL NET ENERGY IMPORT BILL
Will increase from $55 bn in 2012 to $104 bn in 2030
NET ENERGY IMPORT BILL
Cumulative net energy import bill over 2013-2030 will be more than double that of 1970-2012.
NEED FOR SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENTS
Total investment need between 2013 and 2030 = $260 bn (in 2012 dollars)
(Of this, $173 bn between 2013-2023)
Electricity sector will account for > 65% of this total,
It will be followed by oil (~ 25%)
ENERGY INTENSITY 1990-2030
Set to decrease in both Scenarios. -5% reduction by 2030 in CS
-23% reduction in PS.
CO2 EMISSIONS 1990-2030
CO2 emissions to double by 2030 in CS . 36% lower in the PS.
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400
600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mt of CO2
Proactive Scenario
Conservative Scenario
36%
INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY: Government Targets vs OME Scenarios
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
GWNuclear Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal
Government targets for non-Hydro RES could be exceed in PS
FUEL SHARES IN POWER GENERATION:Government Targets and OME Scenarios
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Renewables Coal Gas Nuclear
Government Target
Conservative Scenario
Proactive Scenario
Future role of natural gas is the key
SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL
COAL
COAL PRODUCTION
Most of Turkey’s coal reserves are lignite.Coal production to more than double between 2012 and 2030.
COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR
By 2030, coal demand will grow ~70% in CS and 23% in PS.
Power generation will account for half of coal demand.
COAL IMPORTS
Majority of the coal demand will continue to be met by imports.
Net coal imports (mostly hard coal)
may increase to >40 Mt (CS) or decrease to 18Mt (PS) in 2030.
SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL
OIL
OIL & GAS EXPLORATION
still largely under/un-
explored…..
Less than 4300 wells drilled
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
Will continue to decline, by almost 30% between 2012 and 2030,
assuming no major discovery
Oil consumption by end-use sectors
25
will more than double (CS) or nearly double (PS)
OIL PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION
By 2030, oil demand is expected to nearly double in the PS, and more than double in the CS.
(Road) Transport will remain the largest oil consuming sector
…despite that pump prices of gasoline and diesel in Turkey are amongst the highest in the world.
NET OIL IMPORTS
More than 90% of Turkey’s oil demand is met by imports.
Net total oil imports will continue to increase, from over 30 Mt to ~ 70 Mt (CS) or ~60 Mt (PS) by 2030.
The share of crude in oil imports will be higher than today.
SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL
NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
May increase next decade thanks to tight oil and shale gas, but assuming no major discovery in the Med
GAS DEMAND BY SECTOR
Will continue to increase in CS but slightly higher than its 2012 level in PS, due mainly to
power generation
TURKEY NET GAS IMPORTS
…expected to increase by ~70% between 2012 and 2030 (CS), … approximately the same level (a few bcm higher) in the PS
SUPPLY CONTRACTS vs GAS IMPORT NEED
After 2022, supply may not cover the expected demand in CS .
GAS IMPORT NEEDS vs INFRASTRUCTURE
Sufficient import capacity, but there is room for Iraqi and East Med gas
SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL
ELECTRICITY AND RENEWABLES
ELECTRICITY DEMAND by sector
Demand for electricity will more than double (CS) or increase 60% (PS) between 2012 and 2030.
Industry will remain as the largest electricity consuming sector.
0
100
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1990 2000 2012 2023CS 2030CS 2023PS 2030PS
TWh
Transport
Agriculture
Residential
Transformation, Own Use & Losses
Commercial & Public Services
Industry37%
38%
18%
36%
19%
18%
21%
24%
26%
2%1%
2%4%
2%0.2%
20%
17%
15%
ELECTRICITY GENERATION by fuel
Electricity generation to increase by ~130% to 2030 in CS. Would be 30% less in the PS.
30%
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1990 2012 CS-2023CS-2030PS-2023PS-2030
TWh
Nuclear
Oil
Renewables
Hydro
Coal
Natural Gas44%38%
11%
28%
20%
24%
27%
28%
17%
7%12%
17%
3%1%
24%
INSTALLED ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY
To increase to 125 GW (CS) or 110 GW (PS)
The share of fossil fuel fired plants will decrease to 52% in 2030 (CS),
while this decrease will be more pronounced (35%) in PS.
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2012 CS-2023 CS-2030 PS-2023 PS-2030
GW
Nuclear
Oil
Renewables
Coal
Hydro
Natural Gas37% 20%
34%
29%22%
1%
33%
19%
8%
15%
11%23%
1% 7%
5%2%
33%
INSTALLED NON-HYDRO RES BASED POWER GEN CAPACITY
All non-hydro RES to increase in both scenarios.
Wind remains dominant in absolute values. Solar PV has the fastest growth rates.
Wind: 2.3 GW 12 GW (CS), 20 GW (PS)Solar : 0 1.3 GW (CS), 4.2 GW (PS)
