tel: +44 (0) 121 55 000 44 fax: +44 (0) 121 585 99 44 fountain house, great cornbow, halesowen, b63...

Tel: +44 (0) 121 55 000 44 Fax: +44 (0) 121 585 99 44Fountain House, Great Cornbow, Halesowen, B63 3BL, UK

www.paragonsimulation.com

CSIM3 – The Model Explained

Vinod BhatiaOperations Director

[email protected]

Data Menu Results MenuTrade Data Menu

Regions Demand

CO2 Prices

Region Capacity Menu

Simulation Variables

Absolute Carbon Caps

Carbon Intensity Caps

Scenario Details

Energy Price Inflation

Results Menu forR-pCSIM-uPSL-cNoCommitments

Region Material Menu

Material CO2 Emissions

Alternative Fuel Carbon Ratings

Carbon Cap Policies

Import Road Transport Costs

Import Border Taxes

Sea Transport Costs

Export Road Transport Costs

Export Border Taxes

Import Trade Quotas

Export Trade Quotas

Trading Partnerships

Transport Fuel and Carbon

Border Carbon Adjustments

Free Allocations

better decisions through modelling

Introduction

This document is technical model overview of CSIM3 model version 3-6-0

Detailed information is provided in the associated Function Specification version 3-6-0

All data provided in this document is illustrative

All data provided in the associated model files are examples of the scenarios examined by WBCSD-CSI


Overview

Technical Framework

The Data Manager

The Cement Production Cost

The Trading Position

Model Files Supplied

Scenarios Supplied

Model Quick Start


Technical Framework

Data ManagerExcel

Results Manager Template

Excel

CSIM3 Model Engine

VBA

Results Manager Excel

All data used by the model is held in the Data Manager.

Change the data as needed.

When the Data Manager is opened, it installs the model engine and a

toolbar, which has a button for running the model

When the simulation has completed, the model takes the results and saves them in an Excel file, using the Scenario ID as the name of the file. It is important that the Scenario ID is a

unique for different data sets. The format of the results is defined by a Results Manager template.


The Data Manager

Data Menu Results MenuTrade Data Menu

Regions Demand

CO2 Prices


Simulation Variables

Absolute Carbon Caps

Carbon Intensity Caps

Scenario Details

Energy Price Inflation

Results Menu forR-pCSIM-uPSL-cNoCommitments

Region Material Menu

Material CO2 Emissions

Alternative Fuel Carbon Ratings

Carbon Cap Policies

Import Road Transport Costs

Import Border Taxes

Sea Transport Costs

Export Road Transport Costs

Export Border Taxes

Import Trade Quotas

Export Trade Quotas

Trading Partnerships

Transport Fuel and Carbon

Border Carbon Adjustments

Free Allocations

Each one of the buttons takes you to a separate

area of the Data Manager

Yellow buttons contain data that is used by the model

Red buttons take you to another menu

Green buttons take you to other useful sheets


Model Flow Diagram

This diagram shows the logical flow of information and the classification of the different data types.


Regions

The first thing to do is to define the

Regions and some basic information

User-definable data when

yellow

Not used by model when grey

Up to 20 regions can

be set up – to date we have

used eight

NameInclude In Simulation

Importers Price

Differential (%) Profit Margin

Gross Margin (%)

Gross Margin ($/t)

Finance Period (y)

Investment Discount

RateCarbon Scheme

Europe Yes - Fixed Margin 33.0% 34.32 15 8.00% SanctionsJapan - Australia - New Zealand Yes - Fixed Margin 10.0% 26.71 15 8.00% SanctionsNorth America Yes - Fixed Margin 33.0% 38.41 15 8.00% SanctionsCIS Yes - Fixed Margin 10.0% 20.54 15 8.00% SanctionsChina Yes - Fixed Margin 25.0% 9.38 15 8.00% SanctionsAsia excluding China Yes - Fixed Margin 10.0% 35.46 15 8.00% SanctionsLatin America Yes - Fixed Margin 20.0% 108.17 15 8.00% SanctionsAfrica and Middle East Yes - Fixed Margin 10.0% 50.23 15 8.00% Sanctions


Cement Demand

Demand (Mt)

Year

RegionPrice Increase (%)

Demand Reduction (%) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Europe - 1.0% 259 265 268 271 274 Japan - Australia - New Zealand - 1.0% 69 67 67 67 67 North America - 1.0% 136 137 139 140 141 CIS - - 79 88 91 94 97 China - - 1,075 1,218 1,278 1,342 1,409 Asia excluding China - - 373 401 421 442 464 Latin America - - 117 125 128 130 133 Africa and Middle East - - 231 252 261 269 279

Price Elasticity

Not changeable

by user when green

The model’s first task is to try and meet

cement demand from

domestic clinker

capacity

It does this by looking at each

Region’s clinker-making capacity which

is defined elsewhere

If there is insufficient

capacity, it can either build

new capacity or import cement

A decision to import is based on the economics of trade vs. domestic production


Regional Capacity

There is a lot of capacity information,

so each Region has

it’s own page


Capacity for Europe

Capacity for North America

Capacity for China

Capacity for Latin America

Capacity for I

Capacity for K

Capacity for M

Capacity for O

Capacity for Q

Capacity for S

Capacity for Japan - Australia - New Zealand

Capacity for CIS

Capacity for Asia excluding China

Capacity for Africa and Middle East

Capacity for J

Capacity for L

Capacity for N

Capacity for P

Capacity for R

Capacity for T

To do this the model needs to how much it will cost to make clinker from its own

facilities


Capacity – Kiln Types & Options

# Option Kiln TypeApply Abatement to Capacity Option(s) Abatement Type

Include In Simulation?

1 New Dry Yes2 Abatement All Existing Energy Efficiency Yes3 Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel No4 Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel No5 Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel No6 Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel No7 Abatement All All Blending No8 Abatement All All Blending No9 Abatement All All Blending No

10 Abatement All All Blending No11 Abatement Dry All Plant Refurbishment No12 Abatement Wet All Plant Refurbishment No13 Abatement Dry New CCS Yes14 Abatement Dry Existing CCS Yes15 Existing Wet Yes16 Existing Dry Yes17 Existing Shaft No

A lot of options can be specified

for each Region, and options can

be added and removed as

needed

Here we have specified that this Region has existing dry and wet kilns, and three abatement

options

Every Region always has the ability to add New Dry

capacity – so the user can’t de-select

The tables are quite large so

they have been split up in the presentation


Capacity & Availability (in t clinker)

Remaining Life/Life

Expectancy


Include In Simulation? y

Nominal (Mt/y)

Availability (%)

Existing Production

(Mt/y)

Yearly Capacity

Reduction1 New Dry Yes 60 1.00 85.0% 0.85 -2 Abatement All Existing Energy Efficiency Yes 0 - - 0.00 -3 Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel No 0 - - 0.00 -4 Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel No 0 - - 0.00 -5 Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel No 0 - - 0.00 -6 Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel No 0 - - 0.00 -7 Abatement All All Blending No 0 - - 0.00 -8 Abatement All All Blending No 0 - - 0.00 -9 Abatement All All Blending No 0 - - 0.00 -

10 Abatement All All Blending No 0 - - 0.00 -11 Abatement Dry All Plant Refurbishment No 0 - - 0.00 -12 Abatement Wet All Plant Refurbishment No 0 - - 0.00 -13 Abatement Dry New CCS Yes 0 - - 0.00 -14 Abatement Dry Existing CCS Yes 0 - - 0.00 -15 Existing Wet Yes 60 10.70 85.0% 9.10 -16 Existing Dry Yes 60 226.70 85.0% 192.70 -17 Existing Shaft No 60 - 85.0% 0.00 -

Kiln Capacity (Clinker)

We can specify the actual capacity, availability,

remaining life and whether there is planned retirement


Capital Investment Investment

Fixed Production Costs/Fixed

Production Costs Change

Other Production Costs/Other

Production Costs Change

Option Kiln TypeApply Abatement to Capacity Option(s) Abatement Type

Include In Simulation? $/t $/t/y $/t/y $/t/y

New Dry Yes 250 29.21 8.82 8.27Abatement All Existing Energy Efficiency Yes 2.39 0.28 - -Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel No 0 0.00 - -Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel No 0 0.00 - -Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel No 0 0.00 - -Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel No 0 0.00 - -Abatement All All Blending No 0 0.00 - -Abatement All All Blending No 0 0.00 - -Abatement All All Blending No 0 0.00 - -Abatement All All Blending No 0 0.00 - -Abatement Dry All Plant Refurbishment No 0 0.00 - -Abatement Wet All Plant Refurbishment No 0 0.00 - -Abatement Dry New CCS Yes 150 17.52 21.63 4.75Abatement Dry Existing CCS Yes 225 26.29 21.63 4.75

Existing Wet Yes 24 2.80 8.82 8.27Existing Dry Yes 24 2.80 8.82 8.27Existing Shaft No 24 2.80 5.00 5.00

CAPEX OPEX

Non-Energy & Material Costs

Here we can specify the investment costs and general production costs – note that materials

and fuel costs are done separately

Investment costs are based on a cost per tonne of clinker, annualised by discounting at a specific rate over

its economic lifetime. Interest Rate and Period is specified at Regional level.


Electricity & Fuel

The Fuel requirement is entered for each optionFuel is expressed in two parts: GJ / t clinker; and % Mix. For Existing Kilns which have not been abated, this Mix

doesn’t change

Electricity Consumption

Rate

Fuel Consumption

Rate Coal Petroleum Coke Gas Heavy Fuel Oil Biomass Alternative Fuel

MWh/t(clinker) GJ/t(clinker) % % % % % % Fuel Check0.11 3.20 29.00 48.27 1.00 4.00 4.08 13.64 100.000.11 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 60.000.11 0.00 10.00 - - - 51.44 38.56 100.000.11 0.00 80.00 - - - 11.44 8.56 100.000.11 0.00 10.00 - - - - - 10.000.11 0.00 80.00 - - - - - 80.000.11 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 60.000.11 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 60.000.11 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 60.000.11 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 60.000.11 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 60.000.11 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 60.000.11 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 60.000.11 0.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 60.000.11 6.23 29.00 48.27 1.00 4.00 4.08 13.64 100.000.11 3.56 29.00 48.27 1.00 4.00 4.08 13.64 100.0020.00 21.00 100.00 - - - - - 100.00

Alternative FuelsConventional Fuels


Raw Materials & Blending

Raw Materials is also expressed in two parts: t material / t clinker; and % Mix

Blended Materials are expressed as a % of Cement, excluding Gypsum – the Gypsum % is set elsewhere

Raw MaterialsAlternative Raw

MaterialBlending Materials

Raw Material Consumption

Rate Limestone(Not Including

Gypsum)

t/t(clinker) % %Raw Material

Check % (of Cement)1.14 100.00 - 100.00 21.24

10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 12.86 12.86 12.86 25.72 12.86 2.86 2.86 2.86 5.72 2.86 - - - 0.00 - - - - 0.00 -

10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 45.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 1.14 100.00 - 100.00 21.24 1.14 100.00 - 100.00 21.24

10.00 100.00 - 100.00 10.00


Abatement - Penetration

Abatement options can be specified in a lot of detail.In this section on the Capacity sheets, you can define when an abatement starts, how fast it penetrates, and

what the maximum ‘share of parc’ is.


Share applied in 2005

Share Of Parc

Year Becomes Available

Minimum Lifetime Remaining for Installation (y)

Year Changes

BeginInstant

Change?

Year Changes Take Off

Fast Period

(y)1 New Dry 1.00% 100.00% 2005 0 2007 Yes 2010 72 Abatement All Existing Energy Efficiency - 20.00% 2006 6 2006 No 2006 43 Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel - 60.00% 2013 2 2013 No 2013 154 Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel - 60.00% 2013 2 2013 No 2013 155 Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel - 100.00% 2005 2 2006 No 2006 26 Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel - 100.00% 2005 2 2006 No 2006 27 Abatement All All Blending - 100.00% 2013 2 2013 No 2013 158 Abatement All All Blending - 100.00% 2005 2 2006 No 2006 29 Abatement All All Blending - 100.00% 2005 2 2006 No 2006 2

10 Abatement All All Blending - 100.00% 2005 2 2006 No 2006 211 Abatement Dry All Plant Refurbishment - 100.00% 2005 2 2006 No 2006 212 Abatement Wet All Plant Refurbishment - 100.00% 2005 0 2006 No 2006 213 Abatement Dry New CCS - 50.00% 2016 15 2016 No 2016 814 Abatement Dry Existing CCS - 50.00% 2016 15 2016 No 2016 815 Existing Wet - 100.00% 2005 0 2007 No 2010 716 Existing Dry - 100.00% 2005 0 2007 No 2010 717 Existing Shaft - 100.00% 2005 0 2007 No 2010 7

Abatement Diffusion Parameters

Once the data has been set up you can get the system to draw an S-Curve of the parameters that you have

entered for an option – this curve is for Energy Efficiency

Growth S-Curve for 0.0% changing to 20.0%

-

2.0

0 3.0

0

5.0

0

5.0

0

3.0

0

1.2

9

0.4

7

0.1

6

0.0

5

0.0

2

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

Year

%

Total Installed Penetration Changed Penetration

For Abatement options you can control what type of kiln it is applied to (Dry, Wet, Shaft,

All)

…and whether it can be applied to Existing, New or

All capacity


Abatement - Impact

Fuel Consumption

Change

Electricity Consumption

ChangeCarbon Storage

Rate

# Option Kiln TypeApply Abatement to Capacity Option(s) Abatement Type % % %

1 New Dry - - -2 Abatement All Existing Energy Efficiency -18.00% - -3 Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel - - -4 Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel - - -5 Abatement Dry All Alternative Fuel - - -6 Abatement Wet All Alternative Fuel - - -7 Abatement All All Blending - - -8 Abatement All All Blending - - -9 Abatement All All Blending - - -

10 Abatement All All Blending - - -11 Abatement Dry All Plant Refurbishment - - -12 Abatement Wet All Plant Refurbishment - - -13 Abatement Dry New CCS 123.00% -100.00% 85.00%14 Abatement Dry Existing CCS 123.00% -100.00% 85.00%15 Existing Wet - - -16 Existing Dry - - -17 Existing Shaft - - -

Abatement Reductions

Finally, for each abatement option you can specify what it does to Fuel & Electricity Consumption, and for CCS

what the Carbon Storage Rate is

Fuel consumption goes down in this

case

Fuel consumption goes up in this case

…but electricity goes down

…and CO2 is stored rather than

emitted


Regional MaterialsRegion Material Availabilities Menu Region Material Prices Menu

Materials For Europe

Materials For Japan - Australia - New Zealand

Materials For North America

Materials For CIS

Materials For China

Materials For Asia excluding China

Materials For Latin America

Materials For Africa and Middle East

Materials For I

Materials For J

Materials For K

Materials For L

Materials For M

Materials For N

Materials For O

Materials For P

Materials For Q

Materials For R

Materials For S

Materials For T

Material Prices For Europe

Material Prices For Japan - Australia - New Zealand

Material Prices For North America

Material Prices For CIS

Material Prices For China

Material Prices For Asia excluding China

Material Prices For Latin America

Material Prices For Africa and Middle East

Material Prices For I

Material Prices For J

Material Prices For K

Material Prices For L

Material Prices For M

Material Prices For N

Material Prices For O

Material Prices For P

Material Prices For Q

Material Prices For R

Material Prices For S

Material Prices For T

Each Region has it’s own

page for materials

availability and price


Fuel & Materials Availability

Materials availability can change year-by-yearYou can set a material to “Unlimited Availability” by

entering -1

YearMaterial Category Sub-Category Units 2005 2006

Electricity Electricity Electricity MWh -1 -1Coal Fuel Conventional GJ -1 -1

Petroleum Coke Fuel Conventional GJ -1 -1Heavy Fuel Oil Fuel Conventional GJ -1 -1

Gas Fuel Conventional GJ -1 -1Bunker Fuel Fuel Conventional GJ -1 -1

Diesel Fuel Conventional GJ -1 -1MSW Fuel Alternative GJ 4,224,156,166 4,235,660,335Tyres Fuel Alternative GJ 92,994,798 93,248,062

Solvents Fuel Alternative GJ 117,000,000 117,318,641Other AF Fuel Alternative GJ - -

Animal bone meal Fuel Biomass GJ 1,408,052,055 1,411,886,778Sewage sludge Fuel Biomass GJ 176,006,507 176,485,847Other biomass Fuel Biomass GJ 14,227,699 14,266,447

Limestone Raw Material Conventional t -1 -1Blast Furnace Slag Raw Material Alternative t - -

Gypsum Blending Material Conventional t -1 -1Fly Ash Blending Material Conventional t 54,657,114 54,474,923

Slag Blending Material Conventional t 16,424,334 17,104,632Limestone Fines Blending Material Conventional t 23,147,708 23,721,463Cement Kiln Dust Blending Material Conventional t - -

Silica Fumes Blending Material Conventional t - -


Fuel & Materials Costs

Materials costs can change year-by-year

YearMaterial Category Sub-Category Unit 2005 2006

Electricity Electricity Electricity $/MWh 172.53 172.53Coal Fuel Conventional $/GJ 3.39 3.39

Petroleum Coke Fuel Conventional $/GJ 3.39 3.39Heavy Fuel Oil Fuel Conventional $/GJ 6.77 6.77

Gas Fuel Conventional $/GJ 7.89 7.89Bunker Fuel Fuel Conventional $/GJ 28.34 28.34

Diesel Fuel Conventional $/GJ 28.34 28.34MSW Fuel Alternative $/GJ 1.70 1.70Tyres Fuel Alternative $/GJ 1.70 1.70

Solvents Fuel Alternative $/GJ 1.70 1.70Other AF Fuel Alternative $/GJ 1.70 1.70

Animal bone meal Fuel Biomass $/GJ 1.70 1.70Sewage sludge Fuel Biomass $/GJ 1.70 1.70Other biomass Fuel Biomass $/GJ 1.70 1.70

Limestone Raw Material Conventional $/t 0.00 0.00Blast Furnace Slag Raw Material Alternative $/t 0.00 0.00

Gypsum Blending Material Conventional $/t 50.00 50.00Fly Ash Blending Material Conventional $/t 14.18 14.18

Slag Blending Material Conventional $/t 37.81 37.81Limestone Fines Blending Material Conventional $/t 37.81 37.81Cement Kiln Dust Blending Material Conventional $/t 37.81 37.81

Silica Fumes Blending Material Conventional $/t 37.81 37.81


Fuel & Materials CO2 Emissions

For each Region, the CO2 emissions can be set up for each material

RegionEuropeJapan - Australia - New ZealandNorth AmericaCISChinaAsia excluding ChinaLatin AmericaAfrica and Middle East

Animal bone meal

Sewage sludge

Other biomass Limestone

Blast Furnace Slag

Biomass Fuel

Biomass Fuel

Biomass Fuel Raw Material Raw Material

kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/t kgCO2/t- - - 525.00 -- - - 525.00 -- - - 525.00 -- - - 525.00 -- - - 525.00 -- - - 525.00 -- - - 525.00 -- - - 525.00 -

Gypsum Fly Ash SlagLimestone

FinesCement Kiln

Dust Silica FumesBlended Material

Blended Material

Blended Material

Blended Material

Blended Material

Blended Material

kgCO2/t kgCO2/t kgCO2/t kgCO2/t kgCO2/t kgCO2/t- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -

Electricity CoalPetroleum

CokeHeavy Fuel

Oil Gas Bunker Fuel Diesel MSW Tyres Solvents Other AFConventional

FuelConventional

FuelConventional

FuelConventional

FuelConventional

FuelConventional

FuelConventional

FuelAlternative

FuelAlternative

FuelAlternative

FuelAlternative

FuelkgCO2/MWh kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ kgCO2/GJ

398.85 96.00 92.80 77.30 56.10 77.30 74.00 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65496.91 96.00 92.80 77.30 56.10 77.30 74.00 7.70 7.70 7.70 7.70529.16 96.00 92.80 77.30 56.10 77.30 74.00 8.04 8.04 8.04 8.04838.48 96.00 92.80 77.30 56.10 77.30 74.00 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88982.70 96.00 92.80 77.30 56.10 77.30 74.00 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92731.08 96.00 92.80 77.30 56.10 77.30 74.00 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92197.79 96.00 92.80 77.30 56.10 77.30 74.00 8.01 8.01 8.01 8.01669.16 96.00 92.80 77.30 56.10 77.30 74.00 8.18 8.18 8.18 8.18


The model so far…

We have defined

All the capacity details for each Region

The Electricity, Fuel and Raw Materials requirements

The investment, fixed , and variable costs

The abatement options

The CO2 emissions from domestic production

We can therefore calculate

The costs of making cement from existing facilities

The costs of introducing new capacity

The costs and benefits of the abatement options


The Cement Production Cost

CapacityRegion A

Demand

Incr

easi

ng

co

st

For each Region, the model works out how much existing clinker capacity it needs to use to meet the demand for cement. If there is insufficient

capacity, it will nominally “build” new capacity until the demand is met. Using the information on

costs, the Cement Production Cost (CPC) can be calculated for each facility

The facilities are stacked in increasing cost order

The most expensive facilities set the starting cement price for trading

For each Region, the model considers, one tranche at a time (e.g. 1Mt)

1. How much will it cost to make one extra tranche of cement?

2. How much will it save to reduce production by one tranche?

The model has now calculated the marginal cost of production / non-production, and this provides the information needed to consider

whether to make this tranche, or to buy it

Cement Price


Potential Trade Quantity (t)

Every Region can trade with “A”. The black line represents the final trade line for importer “A”, trading with exporters “B”, “C”, and “D” for different tranches.


Price $/t

A

D

C

B

Trade Quantity

Trade Price

Each import curve is unique for each region, and each export curve is unique for each trading relationship.

The import curve is the importers cement price plus gross margin; the export curve is the exporters cement price plus transport costs

When there is no more profit to be made by an exporter, trading ceases

An import curve (blue) and export curve (red) can be developed from the cost

information

0 trade



C Exports

Price

Trade Quantity

Trade Price

B Exports

D Exports

B Exports

Profit from A

The exporter decides who it will trade with based on maximising profit

Each time a trade occurs, the trading positions have to be re-evaluated

1 2 3Tranche

etc

A


Traded Quantity (Q)

Price (P)

A

B

C

D

Traded Quantity (Q)

Price (P)

B

D

C

A

Traded Quantity (Q)

Price (P)

C

B

D

A

Traded Quantity (Q)

Price (P)

D

A

C

B

The Trade Position: World Trade

There are multiple trading curves – one for each Region

Each export curve (red) is specific to the trading partnership, because the costs are modified to take account of Land and Sea Transport costs which are specific to the trading partnership

Each import curve (blue) is specific to the region, as the costs and gross margin are specific


What about the other data?

All the other data in the model is used to modify either: The Cement Production Cost, or The Trading Position

This effects World Trade Emissions

Profit

TradingPartnerships

Trade Quotas

CO2 Prices

Energy PriceInflation

TransportCosts

Border Taxes

Border CarbonAdjustments

Carbon CapPolicies


Model Files Supplied

Model folder, e.g. “C:\CSIM3-6-0”

A Data Manager for each of five scenarios. There are named ERM-CSI_CSIM_xxx_3-6-0.xls, where xxx is a scenario descriptor. Typically, you should only have one file open at a time

A Model Engine file ERM-CSI_CSIM_ModelEngine_3-6-0.xla which cannot be edited

A Configuration file config.xml which should not be edited

Results Template sub-folder e.g. “C:\CSIM3-6-0\Results Template”

A Results Manager Template ERM-CSI_CSIM_ResultsTemplate_3-6-0.xls which should not be edited


Scenarios Supplied

ERM-CSI_CSIM_DATA_NoCommitmentsBaseline_3-6-0.xls

ERM-CSI_CSIM_DATA_EUCapsOnly_3-6-0.xls

ERM-CSI_CSIM_DATA_Annex1Caps_3-6-0.xls

ERM-CSI_CSIM_DATA_SectoralApproach_3-6-0.xls

ERM-CSI_CSIM_DATA_GlobalCaps_3-6-0.xls

All these files are protected


Quick Start

Open one of the Data Manager files supplied. This will attach the Model Engine and enable the CSIM3 toolbar

Change the data as required. Remember to change the name of the “Scenario ID” in the “Scenario Details” sheet – the Scenario ID is used as the name of the Results Manager file created

Save the Data Manager using a unique file name; you can follow the file naming approach suggested or develop your own

Run the model

Examine the results in the Results Manager file


The CSIM3 Toolbar

Goto Main Data Menu

Returns the user to the Data Menu

Run Simulation Launch the simulation

Create S-Curve Displays S-Curve data parameter data as a graph

Goto Results Menu

Opens results file for current scenario (if available)

Run BatchRun a batch of scenarios (for use with Paragon

Information Manager, not supplied)

About Displays model version information

tel: +44 (0) 121 55 000 44 fax: +44 (0) 121 585 99 44 fountain house, great cornbow, halesowen, b63...

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