tel: 021-69584649 email: [email protected]

TEL: 021-69584649Email: [email protected]

方守恩 (Pro Fang) 同济大学教授、博士生导师

Expert Group Leader of the Road and Traffic Technology Action

Planning, Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST), Public Security (MOP)and Transportation(MOT)

Leader of Chinese Road Traffic Accident Prevention Expert Group, Ministry of Public Security and State Administration of Production Safety Supervision and Management

Vice director of the Road Traffic Management Engineering Technology Research Center

Director of Road Safety and Environmental Engineering Center of Education Ministry

Vice director commissioner of City Road and Traffic Engineering Commission, Municipal Engineering Subcommittee, State Civil Engineering Society

Vice General Secretary of Shanghai Highway Society Member of PIARC Research Areas: Road Traffic Safety, the Theory and Methods of

Road Planning & Design

王俊骅 (Junhua Wang) PhD. Associate Pro.

Research interest: Road Safety, Accident Modelling, Highway Geometric

Design and Incident Management.

Projects: 1 National Natural Science Fund Project, 1 Shanghai Natural Science

Fund Project, 2 863 National High-tech Program and 2 Key Projects in the

National Science & Technology Support Program

Paper: published 20 papers in last 5 years.

Award:

2011 Hei Bei Province Advanced Technology Award, 3rd Prize

2011 Chongqin Advanced Technology Award, 3rd Prize

2012 Advanced Technology Award of Ministry of Security, 2nd Prize

2013 Hei Bei Province Advanced Technology Award,2nd Prize

PART I. CHINESE TRAFFIC SAFETY STATUS AND

NATIONAL EFFORTS IN CRASH PREVENTION

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1. Current Safety Status

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1.1 Crash History Automobile 30% increase each year

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1.1 Crash History

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1.1 Crash History

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（ fatality per 10 thousand vehicles ）（ fatality per 100 thousand people ）

Fatalities Per 10 Thousand Vehicles/PeopleVS fatality vehicle mile traveled

9Chinese Crash History --Fatality Frequency

2010: German 0.70 , UK 0.54, Japan 0.6, US 1.28

1.3 Multiple Death Traffic Crashes (Death>10)

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2013 年机动车违法行为引发事故起数占总事故起数的百分比ratio of the accidents caused by motor vehicle violation in total traffic

accidents

1.4 Crash Contributing Causes

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2. Current Safety Problems

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2.1 TRAFFIC SAFETY LAW NEEDS IMPROVEMENT

Right of the way is not emphasized

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2.2 EDUCATION AND DRIVING TRAINING

Focus on driving skills instead of Good Behaviore.g., no exam on Stop sign Poor behavior video

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2.3 INFRASTRUCTURE

Great improvements have been achieved in the past 10 years

Currently we should emphasize more on--Access management--road side design

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--Access management

--road side safety

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2.4 ENFORCEMENT

The ability to detect traffic violation is lowe.g., a 33km freeway segment covers by video cameras, but these electronic devices cannot be used for enforcement.

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2.5 RESEARCH

(1) Lack of fundamental research

(2)Need more emphases on driving behavior

--Good crash analysis model to investigate the crash causation-- Before and After analysis to know the safety benefit of countermeasures--…….

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3. National Efforts in Crash Prevention

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NATIONAL ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY TECHNOLOGY ACTION PLAN (2009-2011)—70MILLION

1. Integration, analysis of traffic safety information and construction of information platform

Information sharing and exchanging Information management and application Information analysis

2. Traffic Safety Enhancement of highway in mountainous area Infrastructure Safety Enhancement Highway safety system in disaster climate Monitoring of highway network operating situation

3. Safety and Service on national freeway Safety design of multi-lanes freeway in heavy volume Intelligent safety control and management Integrated information service Control and Inducing, Emergency treatment in large rang

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NATIONAL ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY TECHNOLOGY ACTION PLAN (2009-2011)

4. Safety techniques on commercial vehicle Evaluation and detection of vehicle safety performance Maintenance of vehicle safety performance Monitoring of operating procedure

5. Improving traffic behavior of traffic participants New driver training and testing Safety education and propaganda for different audience Equipment and system for safety education

6. Traffic situation monitoring, trends predicting and emergency command system

Traffic safety situation monitoring Traffic safety trends predicting and warning Emergency command system inter-province

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NATIONAL ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY TECHNOLOGY ACTION PLAN (2009-2011)

7. Application of new technique in enforcementNew technique for accident site protecting and clearingAccident site survey and identificationEnforcement support

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Part II Road Safety Research in Tongji

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一、事故多发位置鉴别与道路安全评价 - 面向道路设施 Black-spot Identification and Road Safety Evaluation

1 、提出了适用于我国事故多发位置鉴别方法The Black-spot Identification Model for China

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2 、公路项目安全性评价指南 - 评价道路几何线形和设施Road Safety Evaluation to audit the road

alignment and infrustructure3 、事故模型 - 评价道路几何线形和设施Accident modelling to evaluate the road

alignment and infrustructure

二、驾驶人行为 Driver Behavior

1 、隧道口照明过渡Tunnel entrance lighting and drivers’ pupil

隧道入口隧道外隧道内

Smart-eye


2 、驾驶人心率血压与设施的关系

Cardiac Rate and blood Pressure—highway geometric and Cardiac Rate and blood Pressure—highway geometric and

infrastructureinfrastructure


3 、我们最新的重武器— 8 自由度模拟器our new nuclear weapon-8 degree of freedom simulation

建模过程

Safety Evaluation

1.Tunnel （ K123+368 ～ K126+236 ）

横向偏移

K126+236


自然驾驶实验Naturalistic Drive—with VTTI

二、驾驶人行为 Black-spot Identification and Road Safety Evaluation

What we can do with these Weapon?

--Human Error, Reliability

(1)Car-following Safety Model. What if human make error in:

二、驾驶人行为 Black-spot Identification and Road Safety Evaluation

What we can do with these Weapon?

--Human Error, Reliability

(2)Modelling When and in what environment people make error?

(3) In a V-V system. If a poor break into the V-V queuing fleet, What

happen? How to control?—The human error tolerance rate of

Automous Vehicle

When the real Autonomous vehicles come into our life—growing pain

period

二、驾驶人行为 Driver Behavior -------- Reliability

How accident happen? Driver’s

error Minor Error

Big ErrorSystem Break up

1.Choose driving environment

---People Makes different error in different condition

2. Driving Behavior model and reliability with critical index

3. How the Driving Behavior impact the whole

system(traffic flow model and single vehicle model)

4. Vehicle Alarming System–Correct the error—System

recover

Traffic Control—enlarge the system Duability

System

durableSystem un

durable

System Recover

三、实时车流安全评价与预警real time traffic flow safety evaluation and alarming

实时天气、交通流状态、交通违法等方面评估路网运营安全—科技部、公安部、交通部十一科技支撑

Evaluate the traffic safety status basing on weather, traffic flow,

speed, etc.—National project from Department of Science,

Department of Security, Department of Transportation.

Real time traffic flow safety evaluation and alarming --Incident Mgt.

Incident

Duration and Queuing

length

Secondary

accident(probability, when

and where?)

Speed controlRamp Control

Volume Status

Emergency Site

Management

Variables: Traffic Volume, Facilities, Reaching Site time, First reaching site

body, Vehicle Involved….


1. Traffic wave theory

ESTIMATED RESULTS OF AFT MODEL WITH & WITHOUT MISSING DATA VS LINEAR MODEL

Explanatory variables

AFT_NA AFT LMAIC 8823, LL -4392 AIC 8640, LL -4301 AIC 7041, LL -3479

Coefficient Std. Dev P value Coefficient Std. Dev P value Coefficient Std. Dev P valueIntercept 3.06 0.09 0.00 3.08 0.09 0.00 -2.10 7.96 0.79

Reporting Period (Rush Hour) 0.06 0.04 0.19 0.05 0.04 0.22 5.69 3.91 0.15

Reporting Period (Night) 0.25 0.05 0.00 0.25 0.05 0.00 18.11 4.38 0.00

Reaching Site Time (16-30min) 0.13 0.07 0.05 0.13 0.07 0.06 1.28 6.33 0.84

Reaching Site Time ( ＞30min) 0.84 0.20 0.00 0.78 0.20 0.00 41.33 20.10 0.04

Incident Type (Rollover) 0.26 0.06 0.00 0.21 0.07 0.00 17.61 5.95 0.00

Incident Type (Hit-median) 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.06 0.08 0.40 11.83 6.70 0.08

Incident Type (Breakdown) -0.26 0.07 0.00 -0.39 0.08 0.00 -12.34 6.89 0.07

Incident Type (Lateral Collision) 0.17 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.12 0.16 15.46 9.65 0.11

Incident Type (Flat tire) -0.01 0.12 0.56 -0.03 0.13 0.80 37.64 9.06 0.00

Incident Type (Hit guardrail)n -0.05 0.12 0.48 -0.06 0.12 0.60 4.74 11.05 0.67

Incident Type (Spilled Cargo) -0.11 0.10 0.27 -0.17 0.11 0.13 5.41 8.93 0.54

Incident Type (Fire) 0.53 0.18 0.00 0.54 0.18 0.00 80.65 14.23 0.00

Lanes Blocked 0.16 0.03 0.00 0.15 0.03 0.00 14.82 2.81 0.00

Large Trucks or Bus 0.25 0.03 0.00 0.22 0.03 0.00 18.77 2.91 0.00

Vehicles Involved 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.06 0.03 0.04 3.57 2.52 0.16

Deaths 0.37 0.11 0.00 0.35 0.11 0.00 53.55 9.33 0.00

Rescue Vehicles 0.16 0.02 0.00 0.18 0.02 0.00 11.36 1.56 0.00

Log(scale) -1.13 0.03 0.00 -1.14 0.03 0.00


1.Definition of SecondaryHow to find? 15mins 1mile?(1)Look inside the real time loop data(2) Incident detecting Model with loop data(3)Traffic waving prediction

2.ModelTraditional :Only Traffic Volume, Facilities, Reaching Site time, First reaching site body, Vehicle Involved?+ Incident duration prediction(Primary Incident features)


Mean=71.09 minutes and 3.88 miles

STD =55.36 minutes and 4.64 miles

仿真时间

0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00

车流方向

VMS 1

VMS 5

VMS 4

VMS 3

VMS 2

VMS 6

110km/h 70km/h90km/h100km/h 80km/h 60km/h


VMS and Ramp control

完成了《上海市城市道路交通标志、标线设置补充规定》、《上海市高速公路网相关标志更换工作实施技术细则》、《新疆乌鲁木齐城市道路交通语言系统》、《义乌市指路系统设置方法研究》等课题，为统一和规范道路信息，形成标识清晰、视认方便的高速公路命名和编号体系，使交通标志的设置更加科学、规范、系统。

Setting up Road Sign Design Standard for Shangha, Wulumuqi, Yiwu etc.

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四、道路安全设施Road Safety Infrastructure

交通安全设施改造——防撞垫


Engineering Research Center of Road Traffic Safety and Environment, Ministry of Education

◆ 技术让交通更安全 ◆

1st Generation

2nd GenerationNewest


◆ 技

术让

交通

更安

全 ◆

Use Simulating to develop and Optimize the new product

a ） t=0.0s 初始状态 b ） t=0.04s 吸能构件开始变形

c ） t=0. 1s 吸能构件完全变形 d ） t=0.19s 车辆停止

四、道路安全设施Road Safety Infrstructure

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