technometrica auto demand index -...

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand IndexSeptember 2016

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TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – September 2016

Table Of ContentsI. Methodology 3

II. Auto Demand Index 4-15A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)B. By RegionC. By Area TypeD. By AgeE. By Gender/Marital StatusF. By Parental Status and Race/EthnicityG. By Household IncomeH. Auto Sales ProgressionI. Slow Stochastic IndexJ. Auto Sales Channel (2011-2016)

III. Demand For New Autos 16-20A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallB. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over TimeC. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameD. Vehicle Types MomentumE. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA

IV. Brand Preferences 21-26A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMAB. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)

V. Contact Information 28


Methodology TechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index is a forward looking early (monthly) indicator of

consumers’ intent to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The index has been set to an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between February 2007 and April 2007.

The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question: – How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say

very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?

We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the percentage of consumers who are either “very” or “somewhat” likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months.

Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new automobiles.

The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles, which consists of over 100 million U.S. households with drivers.

Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to collect the survey data, with a sample size of around 900 respondents. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. The August Survey was conducted between July 29th and August 4th , 2016.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

De

c-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-15

De

c-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-16

Sep

-16

Au

to D

em

and

In

de

x (A

DI)

Auto Demand Index (ADI) 3SMA

Auto Demand Index (Overall)Although Americans’ intent to acquire new vehicles slowed somewhat in September, vehicle purchase intent remains relatively strong among consumers. After gaining 41 points in August, the Auto Demand Index level declined by 15 points this month, registering an overall score of 108. As a result, we anticipate that consumers will continue to display relatively high levels of purchase intent in the near future, though not as strong as last year’s robust performance.

High Low

2010 97 56

2011 94 49

2012 105 49

2013 86 64

2014 88 73

2015 129 64

2016 123 82

Base = All Respondents

3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average


Auto Demand Index Moving AveragesBase = All Respondents

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Sep-

14

Oct-1

4

Nov-

14

Dec-1

4

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr-1

5

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct-1

5

Nov-

15

Dec-1

5

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-1

6

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

3SMA 6SMA 12SMA

3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average

6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average

12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average

In further indication that vehicle purchase intent will remain strong in the near future, this month’s Auto Demand Index score registered above all three of its moving averages. September’s ADI topped both its 12-month and 6-month moving averages (101) by 6 points, while surpassing its 3-month (105) average by three points. Meanwhile, the 3-month moving average increased by four points in September, marking the second straight month of growth in the Index.

Auto

Dem

and

Inde

x (A

DI)


10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

-10.0

-6.0

-2.0

2.0

6.0

10.0

AutoSales

(Millions)

Momentum: Moving Average Convergence DivergenceMomentum= Fast Average (6-month exponential moving average) minus Slow Average (12-month exponential moving average)

Base = All Respondents

Our momentum indicator (MACD) increased for the second straight month in September, gaining 0.4 point to attain a reading of 2.7. Therefore, TechnoMetrica anticipates that the Auto Demand Index will maintain its positive momentum in the near future. As a result, we also expect new vehicle sales to rise in the coming months, though at a slower rate than last year’s record performance.

Diffe

renc

e be

twee

n 6

EMA-

ADI

and

12 E

MA-

ADI

Difference between 6 EMA auto sales and 12 EMA auto sales


By Region 3 SMABase = All Respondents

Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?

116104 103 101 100

113 121

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

South

120106

8779 79

89 86

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Northeast

125135

127

97

7588

108

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Midwest

84 89 90108

95 10390

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

West12 SMA = 9012 SMA = 109

12 SMA = 10712 SMA = 94


103 101 10599

7991

107

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Rural

By Area Type 3 SMABase = All Respondents


118 116103 100

92105 110

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Suburban

111103 104 96 100 107

100

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Urban12 SMA = 98

12 SMA = 101

12 SMA = 106


By Age 3 SMABase = All Respondents


138 143126 114 100

126109

0255075

100125150175200225

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

18-24

108 105101

9079

9199

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

45-64

122115 121 118 111 113 125

0255075

100125150175200

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

25-44

87 8067

71 7281 75

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

65+

12 SMA = 141

12 SMA = 7412 SMA = 96

12 SMA = 114


117105 111 105 102 98 103

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Male

By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMABase = All Respondents


106 11096 91

79

103 106

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Female

113 109108 103

95110 112

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Married

112 108101

9385

92 99

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Single

12 SMA = 104

12 SMA = 10612 SMA = 99

12 SMA = 99


By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMABase = All Respondents


134 145 151133

126138

159

0255075

100125150175200

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Parents

10595

88 8779

90 88

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Non-Parents

137 137128 126

112125 138

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Black/Hispanic

103 100 96 8980

91 96

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

White

12 SMA = 134

12 SMA = 12812 SMA = 95

12 SMA = 92


By Household Income 3 SMABase = All Respondents


149132

123 114108

121 119

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

100K+

120 116110 109

97 106 109

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

50K-100K

102 9588

7570 68 71

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

30K-50K

92101

10697

84102

115

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Under 30K12 SMA = 101

12 SMA = 12312 SMA = 106

12 SMA = 84


* The auto sales progression chart shows monthly sales in relation to the most recent 14 months. The high- low lines provide a comparison for the current sales with the most recent 14 months.

Auto Sales Progression

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep-

12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep-

13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep-

14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Sale

s (m

illio

ns)

Month

Auto Sales Progression

High(14)

Low(14)

Sales


Slow Stochastic Index

* The Slow Stochastic Index aids in identifying the tops and bottoms of auto sales.

After displaying two straight months of growth, momentum for the Slow Stochastic Index slowed slightly last month, to a reading of 38.15.

%D


*The sales channel indicates whether there is an upward or a downward trend. The upper channel is 3 standard deviations above the 8-month EMA and the lower channel is 3 standard deviations below the 8-month EMA.

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

16.00

17.00

18.00

19.00

Jan-

11M

ar-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep-

11N

ov-1

1Ja

n-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2Se

p-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep-

13N

ov-1

3Ja

n-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4Se

p-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15M

ar-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

l-15

Sep-

15N

ov-1

5Ja

n-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Sale

s (m

illio

ns)

Date

EMA(8)

Standard Dev. +3

Standard Dev. -3

Sales

Auto Sales Channel (2011-2016)


Likely18%

Not Likely82%

Vehicle Purchase PlansBase = All Respondents

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Likely 3 month SMA

September 2016

This month, the share of Americans whosay they are likely to purchase or lease anew vehicle within the next six monthsdeclined by two points from August, to arate of 18%.

Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 Months Between 4 and 6 Months Not sure

Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameSeptember 2016 Base = Potential Buyers

Slightly more than one in ten drivers who arelikely to acquire a new vehicle (12%) report thatthey will do so within one month, a five-pointdrop from August. Close to one in five likelybuyers (19%) say they will make a purchasewithin the next 2 to 3 months, while nearlytwo-thirds (63%) plan to acquire a vehiclewithin 4 to 6 months.

Q. Will you make your purchase within the next month, 2 to 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months?

In September, the share of likely vehicle buyers planning to purchaseor lease a new vehicle within one month declined by five points fromthe previous month, to a rate of 12%.

Average Time Frame

(Months)

Mar-16 4.25

Apr-16 4.15

May-16 4.21

Jun-16 4.00

Jul-16 4.06

Aug-16 4.03

Sep-16 3.97

12%

19%

63%

Within One Month

Between 2 & 3 Months

Between 4 & 6 Months

Not Sure

5%


Negative Change Positive Change

Vehicle Type MomentumSeptember 2016 Base = Potential Buyers

Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease?

No Change

23%

14%

9%

16%

6%3%

12% 12%

20%

11%8%

16%

6%4%

13%14%

Mid-Size Compact Large SUV Small SUV Minivan Sub-Compact or Mini

Pickup Full-Size

12SMA 3SMA


13% 13%13%

13%11% 11% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Compact

Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMABase = Potential Buyers

2%3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Subcompact/Mini

23% 23% 21% 21% 20% 21%20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Mid-Size

11%13% 13% 12% 13% 14% 14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Full-Size

12 SMA = 3 12 SMA = 14

12 SMA = 1212 SMA = 23


Base = Potential Customers

8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Minivan

12% 11% 12% 11%14%

12% 13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Pickup

17% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Small SUV

10% 10% 11% 10%8% 8% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Large SUV

12 SMA = 6 12 SMA = 12

12 SMA = 912 SMA = 16

Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMA


Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy TodaySeptember 2016 Base = Likely Buyers

*Sorted by 3SMA

13% 13%15%

10%

4% 4%2% 2%

4% 3% 3% 3%

14% 14% 13%

9%

4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Chevrolet Toyota Ford Honda Nissan GMC Kia Cadillac Dodge Subaru BMW Jeep

12 Month Average 3 Month Average


11% 13% 12%14% 15% 15% 14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Toyota

10% 11%9% 9% 8% 9% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Honda

12% 11%13% 12%

15%11%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands)Base = Likely Buyers

16% 15% 15% 14%12% 12% 13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Ford

12 SMA = 13

12 SMA = 1012 SMA = 15

Chevrolet12 SMA = 13


2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Kia

2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Cadillac

4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

GMC

4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Nissan

Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5 to 8)Base = Likely Buyers

12 SMA = 4 12 SMA = 4

12 SMA = 2 12 SMA = 2


3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

BMW

3% 3% 3%4% 4%

3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Dodge

2% 3%5% 4% 3%

2%3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Jeep

4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Subaru

Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9-12)Base = Likely Buyers

12 SMA = 4 12 SMA = 3

12 SMA = 312 SMA = 3


By Vehicle OriginSeptember 2016 Base = Likely Buyers

Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

45%36%

10%

45%37%

9%

American Asian European

Likely to Purchase by Origin


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

M-15 A-15 M-15 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16European Asian American


Luxury vs. Non-LuxurySeptember 2016 Base = Likely Buyers

Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16 A-16 S-16

Luxury Non-Luxury

14%

76%

10%13%

78%

9%

Luxury Non-Luxury Not Sure

Brand Preference: Luxury vs. Non-Luxury



Conclusions Although consumers’ intent to acquire new vehicles slowed somewhat in September, due to persistent concerns regarding the outlook for

the overall economy, vehicle purchase intent remains relatively strong among Americans. After gaining 41 points in August, the Auto Demand Index level declined by 15 points this month, registering an overall score of 108. Relatively low gas prices, rising personal income, and the luring power of deals are among the key factors driving the high level of purchase intent among consumers.

September’s Auto Demand Index score registered above all three of its moving averages. The Index level topped both its 12-month and 6-month moving averages (101) by 6 points, while surpassing its 3-month (105) average by three points. Meanwhile, the 3-month moving average gained four points in September, marking the second straight month of growth in the reading.

Thus, we anticipate that vehicle purchase intent will remain strong in the near future, although it may not reach the levels of last year’s robust performance.

For the second month in a row, our momentum indicator (MACD) increased in September, rising 0.4 point to a reading of 2.7. As a result, TechnoMetrica anticipates that the Auto Demand Index will maintain its positive momentum in the coming months. Therefore, we also expect new vehicle sales to rise somewhat in the coming months, fueled by the easy availability of credit and rising incentives. However, at the same time, auto sales, which may have already reached peak performance, will grow at a slower rate than last year’s record pace.

In terms of demographics, purchase intent improved among 16 of the twenty-three segments that TechnoMetrica tracks on a monthly basis. The most significant growth in purchase intent was displayed among parents and Midwestern Americans, whose ADI scores increased by 21 points and 20 points, respectively. Americans living in rural areas also showed strong improvement in intention to acquire a vehicle, as the segment’s Index score climbed 16 points. On the other hand, Millennials between the ages of 18 and 24 displayed the greatest weakening in purchase intent, with the ADI score of the group posting a 17-point decline.

Nearly one in five consumers (18%) indicated that they were likely to acquire a new vehicle in the next six months, compared to 20% in August. Regarding consumers’ vehicle preference, mid-size vehicles, the choice of one in five likely buyers (20%), remain the most desired vehicle type, followed by small SUVs, at 16%. Also, preference for full-size vehicles continues to display positive growth among consumers.

The Auto Demand Index also allows us to gain insight into brand preferences among prospective buyers. This month, Chevrolet, which placed third in August, tied Toyota for the top spot in brand choice. Both brands garnered a 14% share of likely buyers. Meanwhile, Ford, preferred by 13% of prospective buyers, dropped one position to take third place. Nearly one in ten consumers (9%) chose Honda as the brand they plan to purchase next, while Nissan and GMC were both desired by 4% of likely buyers. Regarding the land of origin of the vehicles that consumers intend to purchase, preference for American-made vehicles climbed 25 points, to a share of 60%, its highest level since January 2012. Meanwhile, nearly one-third of likely buyers (31%) intend to acquire Asian brands.


Contact Information

To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us.

Contact: Raghavan Mayur

Address: 70 Hilltop Road, Suite 1001Ramsey, NJ 07446

Phone: 800-328-TECH (8324)201-986-1288

Fax: 201-986-0119

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.technometrica.com

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