technology forecasting and technology management

TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING and

TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT

TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING

Predicting Weather

Technology Forecasting

M. J. Cetron The prediction with a stated level of confidence, of the anticipated occurrence of a technological achievement within a given time frame with a specified level of support.

Definition

Courtesy: Technology Forecasting by P. K. Rohatgi, K. Rohatgi, B. Bowonder


1. Intutive Methods2. Trend Extrapolation3. Normative Forecasting4. Growth Curves5. Cross-Impact Analysis Method6. Monitoring

METHODOLOGIES


iNTUTION


1. Intuitive Methods include methods of obtaining forecasts from experts in their respective areas of specialization. Since most discoveries and innovations are deliberately engineered by sustained inputs of funds and manpower (for R & D activities), it is felt that probing the minds of the people involved in these developments can give an idea of likely future events. It is reasonable to expect that a rough picture of the future is already formed in the minds of these experts.

METHODOLOGIES



1. Intuitive Methods

- Individual Forecasting,- Opinion Polls,- Panel,- Brainstorming,- Delphi Technique,

METHODOLOGIES


Technology Forecasting 1. Intuitive Methods

Individual Forecasting

An expert in a specific field is asked to predict the probable technological events that are expected to occur in the future in the area of his expertise. This method is of limited applicability, specially in developing countries.


http://www.google.co.in/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=QhOxqGqS2AJAKM&tbnid=w66u0P7fXkjM6M:&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://alistblogging.net/blog-success-forecaster/&ei=7hQYVKOMBNaouwTzv4KoDA&psig=AFQjCNH1fX1XRk4QHIuQarcJO9_gD1Tr4A&ust=1410950696601380

Technology Forecasting 1. Intuitive Methods Opinion Polls

If opinion of several individual forecasters are combined, the errors and bias of individual predictions are likely to be minimized.




Panel

In the panel approach, a group of experts interact across a table and derive a number of forecasts of significance. The U.S. Navy and U.S. Air Force have used this methodology for defence forecasting. The panel approach has the advantage of being multidisciplinary.




Brainstorming

This is a modification of the conservative panel approach. In brainstorming, meetings are held in an environment which allows uninhibited and imaginative speculations. Brainstorming should be conducted under a well-trained leader.


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Technology Forecasting 1. Intuitive Methods

Delphi Technique

The Delphi technique is a method of obtaining expert opinion from large groups or people in a systematic way. This technique is a modification of the panel approach. In the Delphi1. Direct interaction is avoided by using a programmed sequential questionnaire of three or four rounds.


Technology Forecasting Delphi Technique

2. The expert is not called to defend his publicly expressed opinion, and anonymity of individual forecasters is maintained.3. Subordinate do not have to differ with senior executives face to face.4. Salesmanship forecasts are avoided.5. The final result is a statistical group response.Results are based on interactions combined with controlled feedback.



2. Trend Extrapolation The basis of trend extrapolation methodologies is

that the future value of a technical capability, or production from a technological activity, is an extension of its part performance, at least into near-term futures.

The forecasts are generally obtained using statistical time extrapolation techniques similar to those used in economic forecasting.



2. Trend Extrapolation

- Linear Extrapolation - Extrapolation Using Exponential Trend - Substitution Technique

METHODOLOGIES



2. Trend Extrapolation - Linear Extrapolation: In linear extrapolation the parameter to be forecast is linearly plotted against time, and the resulting plot is extrapolated into reasonable future time spans. For example, the high temperature capability of plastics has increased linearly with time and this trend can be extrapolated to project the high temperature capability of plastics in the near future.

METHODOLOGIES


Technology Forecasting Linear Extrapolation



2. Trend Extrapolation - Extrapolation Using Exponential Trend: In this approach, the logarithm of a particular technological capability, or production trend from a specific technology is plotted against time; these semilog plots, which are frequently linear, are then extrapolated into the future to make forecasts. The basis for using this methodology stems from the fact that many technological functional capabilities and technological parameters have shown exponential growth over fairly long time periods.

METHODOLOGIES


Extrapolation Using Exponential Trend



The parameters of a technology can often be forecast by extrapolating the rate of substitution of that technology by some other recent technology.



- Substitution Technique:


- Substitution Technique: The substitution model of Fisher and Pry of General Electric is based on the following concepts:1.Many technological advances can be considered as competitive substitutions of one method of satisfying a need, by another newer method of satisfying the same need.2. If a substitution has progressed as far as a few percent of the total consumption, it will proceed to completion.




- Substitution Technique:3. The fractional rate of substitution of a new technology for an old technology is proportional to the remaining amount of the old technology left to be substituted.




- Substitution Technique: The Fisher and Pry model for rates of substitution has been found to be obeyed rather well in the USA in the technologies using the substitution of- Natural fibers by synthetic fibres (Fig. 2.6);-Open heart steel-making process by electric arc process (Fig. 2.7);-zinc oxide and lead oxide in paint pigments by titanium dioxide;-Oil based paints by water-based paints;- Natural rubber by synthetic rubber;



2. Trend Extrapolation -Substitution Technique:


Substitution of natural fibres by synthetic fibres

2. Trend Extrapolation -Substitution Technique:


Substitution of Open heart steel-making process by electric arc process


- Substitution Technique: -Natural rubber by synthetic rubber;-Soaps by detergents;-inorganic insecticides by organic insecticides; and-natural tyre fibres by artificial fibres.



2. Trend Extrapolation – Substitution Technique:



Advantages: - Extrapolation techniques are simple, easy, and they consume very little time and effort. - Trend extrapolations depend only on the past performance, and not on any assumptions which may be subjective.- A trend curve contains the net effect of all the interacting influences like social effects, economic, technological, and political factors.




Disadvantages:-Trend can not be extrapolated very far into the future.-It does not explicitly state or identify the interacting parameters and effects of environments which are responsible for the past trend.-Unless reliable year wise data are available, future projections based on in sufficient data could be grossly inaccurate.




3. Normative Forecasting This is a goal oriented forecasting where one recedes from

future goals to the present and intermediate-term technological needs.

It is primarily need-based forecasting. Future goals are specified and then the capabilities which

must exist in the present or intermediate future are identified for the achievement of specific goals.

In a way, this is a method of pushing the technologies in the required direction in response to the identified needs of the future.

METHODOLOGIES



- Morphological Analysis: It was introduced by Fritz Zwicky with a view to ensuring that all possible solutions to any problem are examined before the choice is made as to the best solution. This method, thus, involves the breakdown of a problem into parts which can, to some extent, be treated independently – they have no heirarchical relationships. In subsequent steps, several solutions or approaches to each part are enumerated. Overall solutions are obtained by taking one of the possible solutions to each part.

3. Normative Forecasting METHODOLOGIES


Morphology is a branch of biology dealing with the study of the form and structure of organisms and their specific structural features.

Courtesy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dragonfly_morphology_edit_3.svg, http://www.insectsexplained.com/03external.htm, , http://www.infovisual.info/02/039_en.html ,

Technology Forecasting 3. Normative Forecasting - Morphological Analysis:


WingsEnginesFuselagesTails

Technology Forecasting 3. Normative Forecasting - Morphological Analysis:



4. Growth Curves Similarities between biological growth and the growth

of many technologies or technological parameters have been noticed.

This observation has been used to forecast the growth of technologies using biological growth curves.

METHODOLOGIES


The increase in the cell size and cell mass during the development of an organism is termed as growth.


4. Growth Curves - Pearl Curve - Gomportz Growth Curve



4. Growth Curves - Pearl Curve: Pearl has shown that increase in population follows a growth pattern similar to the increase in biological cells in a closed medium following an S shaped curve. This similarity between population increase and the growth of a biological system has been extended to the growth of functional capabilities of technologies.



4. Growth Curves



4. Growth Curves - Pearl Curve: Many technological parameters including steam engine efficiency (100 percent in the limit) show this kind of growth curve. The percentage of houses with electric power in the USA and that of marine power ships also follow this type of growth.


4. Growth Curves Pearl Curve:



4. Growth Curves - Gompertz Growth Curve: This growth curve can be used to predict the state of technology for which there is limit, and when the growth in the initial stages is comparatively faster than that of the Pearl curve.



4. Growth Curves - Gompertz Growth Curve: Gompertz Growth Curve equation is

y = Le – be-kt

where y = parameter of technological growth or functional capability; L= upper limit of the parameter; b and k are constant; and t =time.



4. Growth Curves



4. Growth Curves The Pearl and Gompertz curves have been successfully used for predicting literacy in India.



5. Cross-Impact Analysis Method Present and future events interact with each other and

influence the probability, timings, and impact of one another.

It is based on bringing out interactions between forecasts. Two events can interact in three ways:

1. Mode interaction – one event may enhance or diminish the likelihood of another event; advance or delay; necessitate or obviate; or enable or prevent it.

METHODOLOGIES



5. Cross-Impact Analysis Method :

2. Force Interaction – the influence of one event on another can be strong or weak.

3. Interaction time lag – the interaction between one event and another may start as soon as the first event occurs or the influnce or the influence may be felt only after ten years.



6. Monitoring Many new technologies emerge from physical concepts into technologies at a finite rate. It is posible to identify the majority of probable future technologies by a careful monitoring of new emerging ideas at a very early stage.

METHODOLOGIES



6. Monitoring Monitoring includes three main activities. 1. Search the environment for signals that are heralders of significant technological innovation. Check whether the trends are continuing in the same direction. It involves selecting parameters, events, and decisions to be followed. 2. Identify possible consequences. 3. Present the data in total form to the decision-maker.

METHODOLOGIES


TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING Indian Railways


540

2015-16


1129

200

2015-16

1329

TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT

Technology Management

An innovation or a new idea when it first appears is not accepted immediately by consumers or potential users. Indeed, many innovations fail because they do not get adopted together. When suuccessful, an innovation gets adopted over a period of time. Different types of users adopt the innovation at different times. The late adopters some times look to the earlier ones for information when trying to decide whether the innovation will be useful to them.

Courtesy: Managing Technology and Innovation for Competitive Advantage by V. K. Narayana


• Identification (Forecasting/ Intelligence)• Selection (Technology Strategy/Planning)• Internal acquisition (R&D Management)• External acquisition (Technology Acquisitions and

Collaborations)• Exploitation/Assimilation (Technology

Transfer/Utilization/Commercialization)• Protection (Knowledge Management, R&D

Management)• Learning (Knowledge Management)

Technology Management Process of Technology Change : Diffusion -It is a process by which an innovation is propageted through certain channels over time among the units of a system.Four Major Elements: 1.Innovation2.Propagation3.Time4.System



High Speed Trains Around the World



Innovation:From the point of view of a customer, a technical solution is considered to be an innovation when it is new or perceived as new by the individual or the unit of adoption. It really matters little, so far as human behaviour is concerned, whether or not an idea is “objectivley new as measured by the lapse of time since its use or discovery.”

Diffusion



Propagation:Propagation refers to the spread of an innovation beyond its inventor. Propagation is the result of a decision to adopt an innovation by individual or a firm. An innovation presents an uncertain situation to an adopter, and hence the decieion to adopt is to some extent influenced by the communication process between the adopter and the individual who has innovated.

Diffusion



Time:The time dimension is involved in diffusion, because it takes time for individuals or firms to decide to adopt an innovation. Not all adopters adopt an innovation at the same time.

Diffusion



System:A system is a set of interlinked units that participate in the diffusion process. The members of units of a system may be individuals, informal groups or organisations.

Diffusion


DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION CURVE (Bell-Shaped Curve)

(Courtesy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_lifecycle


Diffusion

Immitation


DiffusionWhen a firm innovators (e.g. develops a new product), two different groups of players respond to the innovation. - One group, the customers, makes decisions to adopt or not to adopt the innovation. Diffusion refers to adoption decisions of this kind.



Immitation- a second group of players, competitors, may decide to copy the innovation and make their own (new) products to compete with the innovating firm. This is imitation.


Technology Management S Curve of DiffusionOne facet of the dynamics of diffusion is the manner in which the total number of adopters of an innovation, individuals or firms, changes over time. A plot of the cummulative number of adopters over time displays an S-shaped curve. A plot of frequency of adoption of an innovation over time displays a normal bell-shaped curve.



S Curve of Diffusion

S-shaped curve – It shows the number of individuals adopting an innovation on a cumulative basis.Bell-shaped curve – It shows the same data in terms of the number of individuals each year.


Technology Management S Curve of DiffusionThere are four major eras in the diffusion history of an innovation:1.Emergence characterized by a slow advance in the beginning, suggesting that adoption proceeds slowly at first when there are few adopters.2. A rapid growth phase, when adoption rate accelerates until half of the individuals in the system have adopted.3.A slow growth phase, where the rate of growth declines, but adoption continues.4.Maturity, the final stage, where the diffusion almost comes to a halt, either as a result of market saturation or the introduction of a new product, process, or service into the market replaces the existing innovation.



S-shaped and Bell-shaped curves

Courtesy: http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2010/09/20/diffusion-of-ehr-innovation/

GROWTH WITHOUT STRATEGY

Courtesy: Mr. Shailendra Jaiswal/ SPMgt/ Natotional Academy of Indian Railways, India

S curve of Technology Evolution Although the initial development of a technology often appears to be a random process, once a new technology comes into existence, its evolution over time displays a reasonably stable pattern. These stable patterns may bedescribed in terms of evolution of performance Characteristic.

Performance Characteristic: It refers to a characteristic of interest to the designer of a product or the user of a specific technology.


S curve of Technology Evolution

Technology Evolution: It refers to the changesin the Performance characteristics of a specific technology over time.


S curve of Technology Evolution Four major stages are1.Emergence – When the technology has come into existence but shows little improvement in its performance characteristics;2.Rapid improvement – When the performance characteristics improves at an accelerating pace;3.Declining improvement – When the pace of improvement declines;4.Maturity – When further improvements become very difficult to achieve.


S curve of Technology Evolution

Start

Growth

MaturityMaturity

THERE ARE NO LIMITS TO IMPROVEMENT

Lots of Growth Curves

Mag tape transferRemote resource sharingTerminal accessTerminal linking

FTPEmail

WebGopher, ArchieStreams

ImagesMp3Games

TelevisionE-cashMovies


Growth In Many Fields



In efffective Technology Management

A critical activity is learning about Markets, Customers and Competitions.


Market-Oriented Technology Management develops fundamentals of – - Technology life-cycles, - Technology acquisition, - Core technology management, and - Technology policy.


Market Oriented Technology:These principles enable managers to find, acquire and develop technologies, add value to them, and make a profit in the environment of short life cycles and rapid price reductions typical of the electronics, semiconductor, and other globally hypercompetitive industries.

Courtesy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_life_cycle

Technology Management Technology life-cycle,

The technology life-cycle (TLC) describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life". Some technologies, such as steel, paper or cement manufacturing, have a long lifespan (with minor variations in technology incorporated with time) whilst in other cases, such as electronic or pharmaceutical products, the lifespan may be quite short. After reaching a point such as D in the below diagram, the earnings from the technology begin to decline rather rapidly. To prolong the life cycle, owners of technology might try to license it out at some point L when it can still be attractive to firms in other markets. This, then, traces the lengthening path, LL'.


Technology life-cycle,



Technology Intelligence

The Value of Technology Intelligence


Technology Management Technology Intelligence


The story of a firm ......................................................




……………………………that changed its course of technology development as a result of a critical piece of technology intelligence.


Technology Management Technology IntelligenceThe Value of Technology Intelligence

the technological intelligence gathering in the firm started when a piece of data was shared by a potential competitor

(the manager of the Far Eastern company).

As illustrated by the story,



As the firm gathered requisite data, it better understood the nature of the threat. This, in turn, led the firm to acquire the smaller firm, thus cutting down the time to market and potentially thwarting a major competitor from entry throughacquisition.

As illustrated by the story,



Its value lies not merely in the information but in the process of generating it.The process of generating technological intelligence leads to -Enhanced capacity and commitment to - understanding, - anticipating, and - responding to external changes on the part of a firm’s key strategic managers.



By technology intelligence, we refer to technology-related information that is useful and utilized by firms during strategic decisions.Critical business decisions are: - Business Strategy Decisions, - Authorization of a major research program, or - decision to launch a new product initiative need to be anchored in Technology Intelligence.Technology Intelligence may reside inside the firm, but more likely, such information will come from the external technology environment.



It serves three major function:

1. The intelligence provides an understanding of current and potential changes taking place in the environment.2. Technology Intelligence provides important information for Strategic Decision makers.3. Finally, the intelligence facilitates and fosters strategic thinking in organization.



The technology intelligence is typically a rich source of ideas and understanding of the contextin which a firm operates.

It should also challenge the current technology strategies by bringing fresh points of view into the organisation.


Technology Management Technology IntelligenceLevels of Technology Intelligence

1. Macro-level,2. Industry or Business-level,3. Program or Project-level.

There are three broad types of intelligence suitable for different types of strategic decisions:



1. Macro-level:Macro-level technology intelligence refers to broad technology trends that are developing in an economy, which may influence the functioning of national economies, specific industrial sectors, and specific industries within them.


Levels of Technology Intelligence


1. Macro-level:At the macro level, technology trends are typically likely to be general, imprecise, ambiguous, and often directional. For example, one such trend may be the emerging influence of biotechnology in agricultural industries; this, however, does not specify which technologies are likely to be useful to agriculture, nor does it tell when such technologies will begin to industry in the future. Example: AT&T focused on the convergence of three hitherto unrelatedindustries – Computers, Video and Telecommunications.




2. Industry or Business-level:Industry or Business-level technology intelligence refers to technology trends and factors that affect or are likely toaffect specific industries.




2. Industry or Business-level:Industry or Business-level technology intelligence focuses on specific technologies, although the trend may be quite imprecise.Example: The multimedia evolution portrayed by AT&T involves fairly specific technologies; however, the exact nature of the relationship that are developing between computers and the telecommunications sector is still open and likely to be subjected to the actions taken by the firm within these two industries.




3. Program or Project-level:Program or Project-level technology intelligence refers to technology-related factors for a specific technology-related program or project.




3. Program or Project-level:Program or Project-level technology intelligence has to be, by its very nature, very specific. Example: if a firm is designing an “environment-friendly” (green) product, very specific technologies need to be tracked, technologies that are useful for developing the product. Further, the intelligence that is needed at this level has to be precise and timely so that immediate action can be taken by a particular firm.



Technology Management Technology Strategy

Technology Strategy is the revealed pattern in the technology choices of firms. The choices involved :- the commitment of resources for the appropriation, maintenance, deployment, and - abandonment of technological capabilities. These technology choices determine the character and extent of the firms’ principal technical capabilities and the set of available product and process platforms.



Four important points of technology strategies are:

1. Technology strategy focuses on the kinds of technologies that a firm selects for acquisition, development, deployment, or divestment.

2. Commitments surrounding technology selection define technology strategy.



Four important points of technology strategies are:

3. Technology strategies are not confined to high-technology industries. Even a capacity-driven industry or a customer-driven industry requires a technology strategy.

4. Finally, technology strategies embrace both the hardware and software elements of a technology.


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technology forecasting and technology management

Documents

defence forecasting

definition courtesy

intuitive methodspanelin

conservative panel approach

expert opinion

individual forecasters

group of experts

idea of likely future