technology assessment of china’s new passenger car fleet ... · 11/30/12 1 hui he december 2012...
TRANSCRIPT
11/30/12
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Hui He December 2012
Technology assessment of China’s new passenger car fleet and international comparisons
Motivations § Identify differences in "eet features across regions.
§ Identify technology gaps among manufacturers (esp. between independent and joint venture automakers), among market segments, and between domestic and import "eets. Provide policy recommendations based on #ndings.
§ Transfer the comprehensive (and expensive) EU/US technology studies to China. The technology assessment study is the #rst step of a series work that link the EU/US technology and cost study to China.
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Data availability
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PC Fleet Import Fleet Domestic
Parameters Domestic Fleet Mini Small Lower
medium Medium Large SUV Minivan
Engine size (cc) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Curb weight (kg) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Wheel base (mm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% Front track width (mm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 98% Rear track width (mm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 98% Power (HP) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 100% HP (rpm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% Torque (N.m) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% Torque (rpm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% Max speed (km/h) 99% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 98% 98% Acceleration speed 0-100km/h 34% 84% 32% 16% 27% 41% 59% 70% 26% 0% Compression ratio 94% 99% 93% 84% 99% 98% 84% 96% 77% 100% Drive train 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel type 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Transmission type 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% No. of gears 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Engine type 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Valve configuration 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% No. of cylinders 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Valve per cylinder 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel supply 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Air intake 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Valve timing 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Valve lift 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel consumption (urban) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel consumption (extraurban) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel consumption (combined) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Emissions standard 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Data fill-in rate 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Color code
Technologies analyzed in this paper depending on data availability
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Area Technologies Potential CO2
reduction!Analyzed in this
report!
# # # # Powertrain# # #
Engine#
Low friction lubrication 0.5% Engine friction reduction 2-4% Variable valve timing (and lift) 4-6% x Cylinder deactivation 5-6% Turbocharging 2-5% x Turbo, gasoline direct injection 8-15% x Cooled EGR, turbo, GDI# 20-25% x Compression ignition diesel 15-25% Digital valve actuation 5-10%
Transmission#
Early torque converter lock-up 0.5% Optimized shifting 2-6% 6+ speed 2-8% x Continuously variable 8-11% x Dual-clutch, automated manual 9-13% x
# # #Vehicle ## # #
Aerodynamics 2-5% Tire rolling resistance 2-4% Accessories (steering, air cond., alternator) 1-4% Lower refrigerant emissions (low-leak, low-GWP) 2-10%
Mass-reduction Advanced material components 1-5% Integrated vehicle design 5-10%
Hybrid systems Stop-start mild hybrid 6-8% x (with limited data) Full hybrid electric system 30-35%
*Source of technology potential: EPA NPRM
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Major analyses of the report
§ China’s "eet-average vehicle features (based on 2010 data), fuel consumption, adoption rates of various engine and transmission technologies, comparisons with EU-gasoline cars and US cars
§ Fleet features and technology adoption by domestic "eet and import "eet
§ Fleet features and technology adoption by major market segments and comparisons with EU corresponding segments
§ Corporate-average "eet features and technology adoption by major domestic manufacturers, focusing on potential gap between Chinese independent brands and joint venture manufacturers
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Comparison of "eet characteristics and technology adoption rates by region
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Parameters EU PC Fleeta EU Gasoline PC Fleeta
US LDV Fleetb US PC Fleetb Chinese PC
Fleet
Specifications Engine size (L) 1.6 1.4 3.1 2.6 1.7 Curb weight (kg) 1,322 1,172 1,815 1,611 1,280 Footprint (m2) 3.9 3.75 4.51 4.22 3.79 Power (kW) 84 77 174C 156C 86 Max speed (km/h) 185 178 223 218 170 Power-to-weight ratio (W/kg) 62 63 96 97 65 Engine specific power (kW/L) 51 52 57 60 51
Fuel Consumption and CO2 Urban FC (L/100km)e 7.4 8.1 9.8 8.6 10.4 Extraurban FC (L/100km)e 4.9 5.1 6.4 5.6 6.3 Combined FC (L/100km)e 5.8 6.2 8.3 7.3 7.8 Combined NEDC FC (L/100km) 5.8 6.2 9.4 8.1 7.8
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Parameters EU PC Fleeta
EU Gasoline PC Fleeta
US LDV Fleetb
US PC Fleetb
Chinese PC Fleet
Fuel Type CNG/LPG/flexible-fuel 3% - - - 0% Diesel 51% - 1% 1% 1% Unleaded gasoline 44% 100% 96% 94% 99% Hybrid: unleaded gasoline/electric 1% - 4% 5% <0.1%
Transmission type Automatic 9% 14% 84% 80% 34% CVT 2% 1% 11% 14% 5% DCT 3% - 1%d 2%d 1% Manual 86% 83% 4% 5% 60%
Number of Gears <=4 1% 2% 25% 29% 12% 5 59% 51% 24% 21% 66% >=6 38% 17% 41% 36% 17%
Fuel Supply Carburetor - - 0% 0% <1% Diesel injection - - 1% 1% <1% Gasoline direct injection 14% 32% 8% 8% 6% Multi-port injection - - 77% 80% 82% Single-point injection - - 0% 0% 11% Sequential fuel injection - - 14% 11% 0%
Air Intake Naturally aspirated 41% 80% - - 93% Turbocharged or supercharged 59% 16% 4% 4% 7%
Variable Valve Timing - - 84% 91% 44% Variable Valve Lift 17％ 18％ 6％
Continuous variable valve lift - - 2% 2% 1% Discrete variable valve lift - - 15% 16% 5%
Market segments
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Mini Small Lower !medium Medium Large SUV Minivan
hatchback ≤3.75 m, RMB 40,000 ~
60,000
Hatchbacks ≤ 4.1 m, sedans ≤4.3 m,
RMB 40,000 ~60,000
Hatchbacks 4.1 ~4.5 m, sedans
4.3 ~4.6 m, RMB 80,000 ~ 130,000
usually a sedan, 4.6 ~5 m, RMB
100,000 ~180,000
usually a sedan, l≥ 5.0 m, ≥RMB
220,000
compact SUV, 5 seats, 2.0 L, SUV
often with separate chassis, ≥2.2L often 7
seats
small bus based on Japanese Kei-
car platform, engine around 1.0
L
Chery QQ3 FAW Xialia Chang’an Benben Chevrolet Spark Changhe Beidouxing Geely Panda Suzuki Auto
BYD F3, F0 Honda City Chevrolet Sail, Lova VW Polo Ford Fiesta Geely Kingkong Geely Free Cruiser Suzuki SwiK FAW Weizhi
Hyundai Elantra Buick Excelle VW Lavida, JeOa, Bora, Santana Cherolet Cruze Ford Focus Toyota Corolla Nissan Tiida Skoda Octavia Kida Forte Honda Civic Chang’an Alsvin
Honda Accord Toyota Camry Nissan Bluebird, Teana Mazda 6 VW Passat, Magotan Chevrolet Epica BYD F6 Ford Mondeo
Audi A6 Buick LaCrosse, Regal BMW 5 Series Toyota Crown, Reiz
Honda CR-‐V Toyota RAV4, Highlander Kia Sportage Great Wall Haval Hawtai Santa Fe Zotye 500B VW Tiguan Cery Tiggo3 Hyundai Tucson
Wuling Zhiguang Wuling Xingwang Chang’an Start Chang’an Start II Chang’an Starlight Hafei Minyi Hafei Zhongyi Dongfeng Yu’an Xiaokang
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Market size of each segment, breakdown by manufacturer type
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6%!15%!
32%!10%!
4%!
10%!
16%!
6%!
Mini!Small!Lower Medium!Medium!Large!SUV!Mini Van!others!
Chinese independent Joint venture
Average values of vehicle features by segment
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!Mini! Small! Lower
medium! Medium! Large! SUV! Minivan!
Market share (%)! 6%! 15%! 32%! 10%! 4%! 10%! 16%!
Price (USD)! 6789! 11573! 17199! 28977! 51061! 28285! 5401!
Engine size (L)! 1.1! 1.4! 1.6! 2! 2.4! 2.1! 1.1!
Curb weight (kg)! 918! 1080! 1258! 1464! 1684! 1567! 998!
Footprint (m2)! 3.1! 3.6! 3.9! 4.2! 4.6! 4! 3!
Horsepower (kW)! 50! 71! 84! 112! 141! 110! 45!
Max speed (km/h)! 142! 169! 181! 198! 218! 171! 110!
Power/weight (W/kg)! 55! 66! 67! 77! 83! 70! 45!Specific power (kW/L)! 45! 51! 53! 56! 59! 52! 41!Fuel consumption (L/100km)! 6.4! 6.7! 7.4! 8.5! 9! 9! 7.6!
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Technology adoption by segment
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Parameters Mini Small Lower Medium Medium Large SUV Minivan
Engine Diesel 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 0%
Hybrid* 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
GDI 0% 0% 4% 16% 33% 8% 0%
Turbo charger 0% 0% 5% 16% 14% 14% 0%
Supercharger 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
VVT 7% 13% 53% 89% 99% 63% 0%
Transmission Automatic 17% 24% 39% 53% 76% 40% 0%
CVT 0% 2% 4% 13% 13% 7% 0%
DCT 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0%
6 + Gears 0% 3% 21% 22% 87% 22% 0%
* Hybrid vehicle data in our raw database is not complete and this may affect values here.
Comparisons between Chinese and EU segments
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EU-‐27, 2010
Segment Mini Small Lower medium Medium Upper medium Off-‐road Car-‐derived vans
Market share 11% 29% 32% 11% 3% 9% 2%
Typical model Peugeot 107 Toyota Yaris Volkswagen Golf Toyota Avensis BMW 5er series BMW X3 Renault Kangoo
Diesel share 7% 35% 59% 78% 81% 76% 77%
Version by fuel type Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel
Number of cylinder 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.1 5.2 5.0 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.0
Displacement [L] 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.5 1.9 2.2 1.5 1.6
Power [kW] 51 51 63 61 87 83 128 109 177 144 111 123 68 67
AT share 12% 12% 9% 3% 14% 12% 36% 21% 74% 61% 24% 37% 4% 4%
Curb weight [kg] 904 975 1105 1173 1312 1405 1514 1565 1708 1764 1450 1772 1402 1428 CO2 [NEDC g/km] 118 111 136 113 156 132 178 148 200 163 182 182 178 144
China, 2010 Segment Mini Small Lower medium Medium Large SUV Minivan Market share 6% 15% 32% 10% 4% 10% 16% Typical model Chery QQ3 BYD F3 Hyundai Elantra Honda Accord Audi A6 Honda CR-‐V Wuling Zhiguang Diesel share 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 0%
Number of cylinder 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.1 5.0 4.1 4.0 Displacement [L] 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.1 Power [kW] 50 71 84 112 141 110 45 AT share 17% 26% 44% 67% 89% 50% 0% Curb weight [kg] 918 1080 1258 1464 1684 1567 998 CO2 [NEDC g/km] 150 157 173 199 211 211 178
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Composition of import passenger car "eet
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Although import fleet currently is <5% of overall fleet, fuel-consumptive cars (upper medium, large, sports, luxury), SUVs and MPVs represent 79% of the import sales. Among which, SUVs represent nearly half of import vehicles.
Small, 2.3%! Lower medium, 4.8%!
Medium, 7.8%!
Large, 6.6%!
Luxury, 10.4%!
MPV, 4.0%!SUV, 47.7%!
Others, 16.5%!
Import SUVs are signi#cantly heavier and more powerful, and consume more fuel than domestic SUVs
14
2.8!
19.2!
15.9!
19.9!
10.5!
4.4!
8.2!
5.6!
2.1!
15.7!
11.0!
17.1!
8.9!
4.0!
7.0!5.3!
0!
5!
10!
15!
20!
25!
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Import SUV! Domestic SUV!
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For any given size, import vehicles on average consume more fuel than domestically produced vehicles
15
4!
6!
8!
10!
12!
14!
16!
2.0! 2.5! 3.0! 3.5! 4.0! 4.5! 5.0! 5.5! 6.0!
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Domestic fleet! Import fleet!
Linear (Domestic fleet)! Linear (Import fleet)!
Market share of top 18 manufacturers analyzed (over 80% of sales)
16
Chang'an, 8.3%!
Shanghai-GM, 8.3%!
SAIC-GM-Wuling, 8.0%!
Shanghai-VW, 7.6%!
Bejing-Hyndai, 5.3%!
Dongfeng-Nissan, 5.3%!
FAW-VW, 5.3%!Chery,
4.2%!
Guangqi-Honda, 4.0%!
BYD, 3.6%!Chang'an-Ford, 3.0%!
Tianjin-FAW-Toyota, 2.9%!
Geely, 2.9%!
Dongfeng-Citroën-Peugeot, 2.8%!
Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia , 2.5%!
Great Wall, 2.2%!
FAW Car, 2.1%!
Tianjin-FAW-Xiali, 1.9%!
Others, 20.0%!
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Most Chinese automakers produce smaller cars than joint venture automakers, but their fuel consumption
is not necessarily better
17
Chang'an!
Shanghai-GM!SAIC-GM-Wuling!
Shanghai-VW!
Beijing-Hyundai!Dongfeng-Nissan!
FAW-VW!
Chery!
Guangqi-Honda!
BYD!
Chang`an-Ford!
Tianjin-FAW-Toyota!
Geely!
Dongfeng-Citroën-Peugeot!
Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia!
Great !Wall!
FAW-Car!
Tianjin-!FAW-Xiali!
6.0!
6.5!
7.0!
7.5!
8.0!
8.5!
2.5! 2.7! 2.9! 3.1! 3.3! 3.5! 3.7! 3.9! 4.1! 4.3! 4.5!
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18
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11/30/12
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Transmission technology adoption
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Case analysis: Chinese brand vs. EU and US brands with similar product mix
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11/30/12
11
Major #ndings
§ The overall Chinese "eet is lagged in many key efficiency technologies behind Europe and US.
§ Technology adoption status vary by segment. Smaller car segments (dominated by domestic makers) are more lagged.
§ Mini vans are extremely inefficient and lagged in all key technologies.
§ Import vehicles are mainly large, luxurious cars and SUVs that in general consume more fuel.
§ Most Chinese automakers are not as advanced as joint venture companies in technology adoption.
21
Preliminary recommendations
22
§ Stringent regulatory standards are needed to drive technology innovation and upgrades, enhancing the competitiveness of the Chinese auto industry.
§ The current policy (or lack of effective policy) on fuel consumption of import cars has failed to bring vehicles with world-class efficiency onto the Chinese market. Future regulations should apply the same set of noncompliance penalties used for domestic vehicles to imports as well.
§ Given that the advanced technologies in large-car segments are more market-ready, future standards should re"ect this.
§ Special incentives are needed to improve the efficiency of minivans or to replace the segment with more efficient and similarly functional vehicles.
§ Flexibility and incentives may be needed to allow some Chinese automakers that are behind on technologies and have relatively narrow product lines to be able to meet the future stringent standards within a reasonable range of cost increases.
11/30/12
12
23
Thank you!
Backup slides
24
11/30/12
13
Comparison between EU and Chinese passenger car "eet by segment
25
Parameters Mini EU Mini Small EU Small Lower Medium
EU Lower Medium Medium
EU Medium Large
EU Upper Medium SUV
EU Off-‐road Mini Van
EU Car Derived Van
Share (%) 6% 21% 15% 38% 32% 27% 10% 5% 4% 1% 10% 5% 16% 1% Engine Size (L) 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 2 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.5 Kerb Wt (kg) 918 904 1080 1105 1258 1312 1464 1514 1684 1708 1567 1450 998 1402 Footprint (sqm) 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.8 3.0 3.9 Power (kw) 50 51 71 63 84 87 112 128 141 177 110 111 45 68 Max Speed (km/h) 142 158 169 158 181 190 198 219 218 238 171 183 110 161 Power-‐to-‐Weight Ralo (W/kg) 55 57 66 57 67 66 77 83 83 103 70 74 45 125
Acceleralon Time (0-‐100 km/h) 18.1 14.2 14.1 14.2 12.2 11.3 10.5 9.3 9.1 7.7 11.6 11.4 -‐ 15.7
Fuel Consumpaon (NEDC) Combined FC (L/100km) 6.4 5.0 6.7 5.8 7.4 6.6 8.5 7.6 9 8.6 9 8.9 7.6 7.6 Combined gCO2/km 150 118 157 136 173 156 199 178 211 200 211 209 178 178 Technology Specificaaons Fuel Type Gasoline 100% 87% 100% 59% 100% 37% 99% 21% 99% 17% 94% 22% 100% 18% Diesel 0% 7% 0% 35% 0% 59% 0% 78% 1% 81% 6% 76% 0% 77% CNG/LPG/Flex 0% 6% 0% 6% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% Hybrid 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% <1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Transmission Manual 83% 86% 74% 89% 56% 83% 33% 61% 11% 25% 50% 71% 100% 96% Automalc 17% -‐ 24% -‐ 39% -‐ 53% -‐ 76% -‐ 40% -‐ 0% -‐ CVT 0% 1% <1% 0% 4% 4% 13% 5% 13% 4% 7% 1% 0% 0% DCT 0% -‐ 0% -‐ 1% -‐ 1% -‐ 0% -‐ 2% -‐ 0% -‐ No.of Gears 6 and above 0% <1% 3% 10% 21% 29% 22% 50% 87% 51% 22% 13% 0% 0% Fuel supply carbureOor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% mullpoint-‐injeclon 96% 100% 96% 84% 67% 89% 26% single-‐point injeclon 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 72% common-‐rail (Diesel) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% diesel injeclon 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% GDI 0% 0% 4% 16% 33% 8% 0% Fuel Intake naturally aspirated 100% 97% 100% 88% 95% 67% 84% 47% 81% 41% 86% 70% 100% 92% turbo or super charger 0% 2% 0% 8% 5% 27% 16% 50% 19% 57% 14% 23% 0% 2% Valve Timing VVT 7% 13% 53% 89% 99% 63% 0% Valve lif variable valve liK 0% 12% 15% 56% 32% 33% 0%
Comparison of vehicle characteristics between domestically produced and import vehicles
26
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14
Comparison of efficiency technology status between domestic and import "eet
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