technology and · 2020. 2. 6. · biom elec coal gas oil 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900...

Technology and Technology and StabilizationStabilization

Workshop on GHG Stabilization Scenarios

Jae Edmonds22 January 2004National Institutes for Environmental StudiesTsukuba, Japan

2

Thanks ToThanks ToThanks To

National Institutes for Environmental Studies

Stanford Energy Modeling Forum

Sponsors of the GTSPKansai Electric Power

U.S. Department of EnergyU.S. EPA

EPRI

3

Dedicated to the Memory of Tsuneyuki Morita

Dedicated to the Memory of Dedicated to the Memory of Tsuneyuki MoritaTsuneyuki Morita

4

Key Question for TodayKey Question for TodayKey Question for Today

What are the energy technology implications of stabilizing climate—not just CO2concentrations?

Interactions with uncertainty in biogeochemical parameterization;Interactions with uncertainty in technology developments.

Inspired by the work of Richels, Manne and Wigley.

5

APPROACHAPPROACHAPPROACHBackground—MiniCAMA Reference Case—MiniCAM B2Stabilize mean global temperature change to 2oC (relative to pre-industrial) at minimum cost.Sensitivities

Physical science uncertaintiesClimate sensitivityOcean diffusivityTerrestrial carbon uptake

Energy technology uncertaintiesCO2 capture and storageH2 systemsBiotechnology

6

MiniCAMMiniCAMMiniCAM

Agriculture, Livestock, &

Forestry

Energy System

Coastal Zone System

Other Human Systems

Human Activities

Crops & Forest

Productivity

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Hydrology

Unmanaged Ecosystems & Animals

Ecosystems

Atmospheric Chemistry

Ocean Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

Climate System

OceanTemperature

Sea Level

Climate & Sea Level

7

The MiniCAM

KEY CHARACTERISTICS

The MiniCAMThe MiniCAM

KEY CHARACTERISTICSKEY CHARACTERISTICSEnergy-Agriculture-Economy Market Equilibrium17 Global Regions 15-year time stepsMultiple Greenhouse GasesInternally Generated DemographicsLand Resource Constraints69 Energy Technology Options

8

The MiniCAMKEY CHARACTERISTICS

The MiniCAMThe MiniCAMKEY CHARACTERISTICSKEY CHARACTERISTICS

Carbon DioxideMethane

15 Source SectorsEnergy, Human Wastes, Agriculture, Land-Use

Nitrous Oxide12 Source SectorsEnergy, Human, Industrial, Agriculture, Land-Use

Halocarbons, etc.15 Source Sectors (7 gases)

Reactive GasesNOx, VOC, CO

Sulfur DioxideCarbonaceous Aerosols

Black Carbon & Organic Carbon19 Source Sectors each (Energy & Land-Use Combustion)

15 Greenhouse Related Gases Tracked

GHG concentrations and radiative forcing

calculated using MAGICC (Wigley et al.)

GHG concentrations and radiative forcing

calculated using MAGICC (Wigley et al.)

MiniCAM B2MiniCAM B2MiniCAM B2

10

The Reference Primary Energy SystemThe Reference Primary Energy SystemSRES MiniCAM BSRES MiniCAM B--22

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Exa

joul

es p

er Y

ear

WindSolarNuclearHydroBiomassCoalGasOil

11

B2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Concentrations, Temperature Rise &

Sea Level Rise

B2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, B2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Concentrations, Temperature Rise & Concentrations, Temperature Rise &

Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Tgas

/yea

r

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000T

C/y

ear

CH4N2ONOxCOVOCBCOCCO2 processHFC-245faHFC-134aHFC125(227ea)HFC-143aSF6C2F6CF4CO2 TgC/yr

Em

issi

ons

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

pp

b

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

CO

2 p

pm

CH4ConcN2OConcCO2Conc

Con

cent

ratio

ns

Sea Level Rise from 1990

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

CM

Sea Level R

iseGlobal Mean Temperature Change from Pre-industrial

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

degr

ees

C

Glo

bal M

ean

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

Climate StabilizationClimate StabilizationClimate Stabilization

13

The AnalysisThe AnalysisThe Analysis

Global Mean Temperature Change not to exceed 2oC.

This limit does NOT reflect a determination as to a change that avoids dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Other values could equally well have been chosen.Future work will explore other values.

Global Mean Temperature Change from Pre-industrial

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

degr

ees

C

14

ApproachApproachApproach

Minimize the cost of stabilizing climate change

15

Reference B2 and Stabilization with Reference Technology and Physical

Parameters

Reference B2 and Stabilization with Reference B2 and Stabilization with Reference Technology and Physical Reference Technology and Physical

ParametersParametersGlobal Mean Temperature Change from Pre-industrial

B2 stab ref science, ref

tech

B2 Reference Case

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

degr

ees

C

CO2 Concentration

B2 stab ref science, ref

tech

B2 Reference Case

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

degr

ees

C

16

CO2 EmissionsCOCO22 EmissionsEmissions

Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions

2020, 7,931 MMT

C/year

B2 Ref Stablization

B2 Ref

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

MM

T Ca

rbon

17

Carbon Tax and Total CostB2 Ref and B2 Ref with Stabilization

Carbon Tax and Total CostCarbon Tax and Total CostB2 Ref and B2 Ref with StabilizationB2 Ref and B2 Ref with Stabilization

Global, Common, Carbon Tax in B2 Reference Stabilization Case

$29$0

$138

$321

$488

$816

$696

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

1990

U.S

. $/

ton

C

Present Discounted Cost

$4.625 trillion

1990 U.S. dollars, discounted @ 5%/year, 1990 to 2095

Present Discounted Cost

$4.625 trillion

1990 U.S. dollars, discounted @ 5%/year, 1990 to 2095

18

Energy and StabilizationEnergy and StabilizationEnergy and Stabilization

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

H2BiomElecCoalGasOil

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

ear

SatSolarSWStorWindFusionH2FcellGasCapOilCapCoalCapBiomassHydroSolarNuclearCoalGasOil

B2 ReferenceB2 Reference with

Climate Stabilization

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

ear


Fina

l Ene

rgy

Ele

ctric

Pow

er

19

Biomass and Land-Use Change Emission

Biomass and LandBiomass and Land--Use Change Use Change EmissionEmission

Biomass in B2 Reference and B2 Reference Stabilization Cases

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

EJ/y

ear

B2 stab Modernb2 Stable Waste & TradB2 ModernB2 Waste & Trad

Land-Use Change Carbon Emissions

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

TgC/

year

C

B2 Reference

Crops

PastureForest

BioLandUnmgd

Non-prod Land

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

B2 Reference with Stabilization

Crops

PastureForest

BioLandUnmgd

Non-prod Land

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Physical Parameter Uncertainty &Climate Stabilization

Physical Parameter Uncertainty &Physical Parameter Uncertainty &Climate StabilizationClimate Stabilization

21

Alternative Biogeophysical Parameterizations

Alternative Biogeophysical Alternative Biogeophysical ParameterizationsParameterizations

High Climate Sensitivity

Low Value

Reference Value

High Value Units

Climate Sensitivity 1.5 2.5 4.5degrees C per CO2 doubling

Ocean Diffusivity 1.0 2.3 3.3 cm2/sCarbon Uptake low mid high various

High Ocean Diffusivity

Low Value

Reference Value

High Value Units



High Carbon Uptake

Low Value

Reference Value

High Value Units



SEVEN CASESReference

High Climate SensitivityHigh Ocean DiffusivityHigh Carbon Uptake

Low Climate SensitivityLow Ocean DiffusivityLow Carbon Uptake

Each case uses the extreme value for one physical parameter and reference values for the others

Each case uses the extreme value for one physical parameter and reference values for the others

22

Temperature, Stabilization, & Uncertainty in Biogeochemical Physical Parameters

Temperature, Stabilization, & Uncertainty Temperature, Stabilization, & Uncertainty in Biogeochemical Physical Parametersin Biogeochemical Physical Parameters

Global Temperature Change

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

(°C)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

B2 Reference CaseHighOceanDBase StabilizationvHighClimSensLowClimSensLowOceanDLowCarbUptakeHighCarbUptakeHighBCLowSO4

Range of unconstrained

reference cases under alternative physical system

parameterizations

Range of unconstrained

reference cases under alternative physical system

parameterizations

High climate sensitivity, ∆T< 2oC

High climate sensitivity, ∆T< 2oC

Low climate sensitivity, ∆T< 2oC

Low climate sensitivity, ∆T< 2oC

23

Carbon and GMT Change Stabilization

Carbon and GMT Change Carbon and GMT Change StabilizationStabilization

CO2 Concentration

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

degr

ees

C

B2 RefB2 Ref StablizationLow Carb SensHigh Carb SensHigh Climate SensitivityLow Climate SensitivityLow Ocean DiffusivityHigh Ocean DiffusivityHigh Black Carbon-Low S


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

MM

T Ca

rbon


24

Biogeochemical Parameter Uncertainty and Cost

Biogeochemical Parameter Biogeochemical Parameter Uncertainty and CostUncertainty and Cost

Carbon Tax Rate for Stabilization

$0$138

$321

$488

$696$816

$714

$1,027

$1,288

$1,526

$1,880$1,992

$29 $142$72

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

1990

US$

/Ton

CB2 Ref StablizationLow Carb SensHigh Carb SensHigh Climate SensitivityLow Climate SensitivityLow Ocean DiffusivityHigh Ocean DiffusivityHigh Black Carbon-Low S

25

B2 Reference with StabilizationAlternative Biogeophysical Parameters

B2 Reference with StabilizationB2 Reference with StabilizationAlternative Biogeophysical ParametersAlternative Biogeophysical Parameters

Total Policy Cost

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Base

_Stab

Low C

lim Se

nsVH

igh C

lim Se

nsLo

w Upt

ake C

arbC

High U

ptak

e Car

bCLo

w Oce

an D

iffHigh

Oce

an D

iffHigh

BC

Lower

SO4

Cost

(Tr

illio

n $9

0US)

Technology Availability &Climate Stabilization

Technology Availability &Technology Availability &Climate StabilizationClimate Stabilization

27

Technology PerformanceTechnology PerformanceUnits 1990 Ref 2095 Adv 2095

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLYOil 1990 US$/gJ $1.13 $7.55 $3.27

Gas 1990 US$/gJ $1.40 $5.03 $3.40Coal 1990 US$/gJ $0.76 $1.42 $1.08

Biomass 1990 US$/gJ $1.63 $1.95 $1.89

ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION (fuel + non-fuel cost)Nuclear 1990 US cents/kWh 5.8 5.8 5.8

Solar 1990 US cents/kWh 61.0 6.0 6.0Wind 1990 US cents/kWh 8.0 4.0 4.0Gas 1990 US cents/kWh 3.5 4.4 4.4Coal 1990 US cents/kWh 3.8 3.8 3.8

CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGEPower penalty, coal % derating 25 not available 15

Capital cost, coal % of non-capture K 88 not available 63Power penalty, gas % derating 13 not available 10

Capital cost, gas % of non-capture K 89 not available 72Storage 1990 US$/tC 37 not available 37

Capture efficiency % 90 not available 90

TRANSPORTATIONUS Automobile Performance mpg 18 60 100

Fuel Cell mpg (equivalent) 43 60 100

Agriculture & BiomassCrop & Biomass Productivity Annual Ave 1.10%

(added .25% in early years, and 0.5% in latter years)Hydrogen Production

Natural Gas 1990 US$/gJ $6.50 $9.00 $15.00Coal 1990 US$/gJ $9.00 $7.40 $29.00

Advanced H2 1990 US$/gJ NA NA $5.50

0.70%

28

WARNING!!!The Advanced Technology Case Is Just The Advanced Technology Case Is Just

One of Many Possible Outcomes for One of Many Possible Outcomes for Investments in a Diversified Portfolio of Investments in a Diversified Portfolio of

Energy Technology R&DEnergy Technology R&D

Includes information from three “deep dives” undertaken under the GTSP

Carbon Capture and StorageBio-technologyHydrogen and Advanced Transportation Systems

29

Technology & StabilizationTechnology & StabilizationTechnology & Stabilization

0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

ear


0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/

year


0100200300400500600700800900

1,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

ear


B2 Reference

B2 Ref with Stabilization

B2 AT with Stabilization

30

Power Generation and Stabilization—Electrification

Power Generation and Power Generation and StabilizationStabilization——ElectrificationElectrification

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/

year


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

ear


B2 Ref with Stabilization

B2 AT with Stabilization 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

ear

SatSolarSWStorWindFusionH2FcellBiomassHydroSolarNuclearCoalCapCoalGasCapGasOilCapOil

B2 Reference

31

H2 and BiotechB2 AT with Stabilization

H2 and BiotechH2 and BiotechB2 AT with StabilizationB2 AT with Stabilization

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

ear

BiotechnologyBiomassElectrolysisCoalGasOil

Land-Use Change Carbon Emissions

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

TgC/

year

C

B2 AT with Biotech

CropsPastureForest

BioLandUnmgd

Non-prod Land

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

B2 Reference with Stabilization

Crops

PastureForest

BioLandUnmgd

Non-prod Land

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Biotechnology& Land UseWhat if agricultural and biomass crop productivities could be maintained and a biological source of H2 that is cost-competitive with CH4?

32

CO2 Capture and StorageB2 AT with Stabilization

COCO22 Capture and StorageCapture and StorageB2 AT with StabilizationB2 AT with Stabilization

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

MM

t C

H2 Prod

Synfuel

Elec

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

MM

t C/y

ear

H2 Prod

Synfuel

Elec

Carbon Storage Reservoir Range (PgC)Deep Saline Reservoirs 87 to 2,727

Depleted Gas Reservoirs 136 to 300Depleted Oil Reservoirs 41 to 191

Unminable Coal >20Basalt Formations >1,000

Deep Ocean 1,400 to 27,000Source: Herzog et al. (1997), Freund and Ormerod (1997), PNNL (2001).

33

Technology, Carbon Emissions, & CO2 Concentration

Technology, Carbon Emissions, Technology, Carbon Emissions, & CO& CO22 ConcentrationConcentration

CO2 Concentration

300

350

400

450

500

550

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

degr

ees

C

B2 StableB2 Stable CC&SB2 Stable H2B2 Stable CC&S-H2B2 Stable BiotechB2 Stable H2&BiotechB2 Stable CC&S-H2&Biotech

Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Stabilization

300

1300

2300

3300

4300

5300

6300

7300

8300

9300

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

degr

ees

C

B2 StableB2 Stable CC&SB2 Stable H2B2 Stable CC&S-H2B2 Stable BiotechB2 Stable H2&BiotechB2 Stable CC&S-H2&Biotech

34

Technology and CostTechnology and CostTechnology and Cost

Total Policy Cost

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

Base_Stab BioTech Geol CarbSeq

H2 EndUses

H2 &BioTech

Carb Seq& H2

H2 & Seq& BioTech

Cost

(Tr

illio

n $9

0US)

35

Some Major PointsSome Major PointsSome Major PointsThe inclusion of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in an analysis of greenhouse gas stabilization has important implications.Limiting the change in radiative forcing to 2oC implies stabilizing CO2 concentrations at 500 ppm.

Emissions peak in 2020 and decline to 3.4 PgC/year by 2095.

An improved technology portfolio could reduce the cost substantially—from $4.5 trillion to $1.5 trillion.Uncertainty in climate sensitivity has huge implications for a 2oC limit on GMT change:

Low climate sensitivity means no mitigation until the second half of the centuryHigh climate sensitivity means immediate, radical emissions mitigation.

36

The GTSP Web SiteThe GTSP Web Sitewww.pnl.gov/gtspwww.pnl.gov/gtsp

ENDENDEND

38

GTSP “Deep Dives”Carbon Capture and StorageBio-technologyHydrogen and Advanced Transportation SystemsNuclear (fission/fusion)Wind, Solar and Other Renewables (including SSP)Energy Intensity

Cross-Cutting ThemesModelingNon-CO2 Greenhouse GasesScenariosInstitutions and Implementation

39

Technology & High Climate Sensitivity

Technology & High Climate Technology & High Climate SensitivitySensitivity

Total Policy Cost High Climate Sensitivity

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

No Addl Tech Geol Carb Seq H2 End Uses H2 & BioTech H2 & Seq &BioTech

Cost

(Tr

illio

n $9

0US)


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

MM

T Ca

rbon


40

Total Policy Cost Low Climate Sensitivity

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

No Addl Tech Geol Carb Seq H2 End Uses H2 & BioTech H2 & Seq &BioTech

Cost

(Tr

illio

n $9

0US)

Technology & Low Climate Sensitivity

Technology & Low Climate Technology & Low Climate SensitivitySensitivity


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

MM

T Ca

rbon


41

MiniCAMMiniCAMMiniCAM

Agriculture, Livestock, &

Forestry

Energy System

Coastal Zone System

Other Human Systems

Human Activities

Crops & Forest

Productivity

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Hydrology

Unmanaged Ecosystems & Animals

Ecosystems

Atmospheric Chemistry

Ocean Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

Climate System

Ocean•Temperature

•Sea Level

Climate & Sea Level

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