TECHNOLOGIESTO WATCH IN 2014 WHITEPAPER

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Figure 1. The Intel Galileo board offers developers a complete Quark-based design solution able to take advantage of the complete Arduino ecosystem. Source: Intel

While 2013 saw some remarkable advances in MCU and wireless technologies that further enable the Internet of Things, 2014 will move forward with the emergence of a more practical Internet of Useful Things. For some, this Internet of Useful Things promises a world where nearly every device continuously transmits data about operational minutiae. Although cloud-based applications will continue to evolve to help synthesize useful information from this massed data, real advances will come from more local processing of data and technologies that allow users to engage more naturally – and more immediately – with their environment.

The trend toward a more useful world of connected devices hinges on a new class of smart sensors. In October 2013, IDC predicted that the Internet of Things will be an $8.9 trillion dollar market in 2020 with 212 billion different devices connected. Others predict there will be a trillion sensors deployed by that date. Sensor integration and sensor fusion will continue to be the watch words for these new smart sensors. Three-axis accelerometers, 3-axis gyroscopes, and 3-axis magnetometers combine to create a 9-axis inertial measurement unit offering greater functionality to engineers in a single small package. Sensor fusion software intelligently merges information from these and other types of sensors into a more accurate, unified description of the local surrounding environment or, more likely, an entire sensor network.

In turn, more sophisticated sensor systems will rely on a new class of processors – blending low power and high performance at a lower price point needed to enable widespread use, and driving applications as diverse as environmental monitors and medical instruments. Built around these processors, sensor systems can truly become intelligent sensor processing systems, analyzing data for important information and winnowing useless details. Today, it is possible to buy networked toothbrushes and dinner forks; expect more everyday devices to become intelligent.

Eight-bit MCUs will continue to reign supreme in the ultra-low-cost world. For instance, an electronic greeting card uses a 6502 variant which costs $0.03 in enormous quantities. ARM® based processors will also continue to dominate. Mouser lists over 2,500 ARM-based MCUs, far outstripping the number of all other 32-bit MCUs combined. In 2014, look for high performance MCUs based upon the newest ARM v8 architecture featuring 64-bit capability from manufacturers such as ST Micro and Freescale. The Cortex™-A57 core will be the first of the new series of cores with this new architecture. One of the more exciting prospects set to emerge in the emerging IoT or “wearables” market (a.k.a. “pervasive computing) is the Intel Quark – a low-power SoC that combines a performance processor with extreme low power operation, has the functionality to run off-the-shelf operating systems, and takes advantage of the enormous Intel x86 ecosystem. Low power concerns will continue to grow as more devices operate on batteries, sometimes for years on end. Previously that arena was the provenance of the smallest MCUs. Today, some 32-bit ARM based devices have stop modes that need only 20 nA and can sleep at 0.5 μA. Run currents of 114 μA/MHz beat most 8-bit MCUs.

The Internet of Useful Things

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WearablesIn 2014, portable and wearable computing promises to introduce another major shift in how humans interact with computing devices and information. As with the concepts behind the Internet of Useful Things, wearable computing dramatically reduces the gap between immediate information and the person for whom that information is the most useful.

With seemingly every gadget going wireless, Wi-Fi in 2014 will start acting more like cellular technology using Hotspot 2.0. Introduced in mid-2013, the new authentication and hand-off technology enables automatic, seamless roaming between hotspots allowing users to avoid annoying login screens while roaming from one Wi-Fi hotspot to another. Hotspot 2.0 support is available in Apple’s iOS7 and Samsung’s Galaxy S4. Hotspot 2.0 technology is currently in limited deployment at O’Hare airport in Chicago and in parts of New York City in the US. When the infrastructure is in place, look for complementary applications to proliferate rapidly later in 2014.

Bluetooth 4.0, better known as Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE), will be common in new smartphones and other portable devices, enabling them to control any number of consumer, industrial, and medical devices.

The development of advanced sensor technology is now being complemented with end-to-end solutions in health monitoring. There have been some major developments. Early in 2014 the Continua Health Alliance will make public its lightweight protocol that works with mobile devices. GSMA has already made mobile health one of its target growth areas. The standards and regulatory bodies are no longer dragging their feet. Bluetooth 4.0 will, of course, play a major role in the health monitoring segment.

Health and fitness buffs already wear monitors that record their heart rate and the distance they run, coupling that to a PC to analyze the results. Wearable wireless medical devices include accelerometers to warn of falls, EKGs for heart monitoring, and insulin pumps and glucose monitors for diabetics. Each of these devices can connect to a mobile phone or PC via Bluetooth. If they need to issue an alert to their doctor, they can trigger a call to their computer over the cellular network.

According to ABI Research, the wearable electronics market will account for 485 million annual device shipments by 2018, due in no small part to medical monitoring devices worn by a tech savvy population of baby boomers.

Figure 3. Wearable computing brings more immediacy to data and enables new applications such as evidence-based healthcare that draws on continuous collection of vital health statistics. Source: Intel

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Figure 4. LEDs systems and light transmissive carpets will blend together to create new ways for presenting information about facilities, routes, and exits within buildings. Source: Philips

Few industries have undergone such a rapid change in their core technology and product offerings as lighting. Advances in LEDs will redefine lighting – propelling an LED market that hit $4.8 billion in 2012 to a phenomenal 45% annual growth rate through 2019. Low lifecycle cost has become a winning argument in the commercial lighting market, but remains a hard sell for consumers. A continuing push for low-power lighting in 2014 should help to expand the LED lighting market. Expect that federal and state rebates will continue in 2014 to encourage people to switch to LED lighting.

Fueled by rapid market acceptance, solid-state lighting manufacturers are translating innovative technologies into mainstream products at a furious rate. Semiconductor technology advances such as more efficient silicon-carbide (SiC) MOSFETS are enabling commercialization of new classes of devices that dramatically reduce the size and power consumption of more powerful LED driver ICs. At the same time, market economies and improved manufacturing techniques are driving down the cost of and footprint of LED luminaries. The result is an environment ripe for explosion in 2014 of new ways for using LEDs.

For example, LED headlamps are evolving beyond just a standard replacement for headlights in new vehicles. Increasingly, premium features such as side illumination and cornering headlights are appearing more broadly in luxury-class vehicles thanks to greater reliability, smaller size, and lower cost of brighter LEDs.

While LED illumination continues to create new opportunities, the synergy of solid-state lighting and digital control promises to create entirely new applications. LED lighting control requires that simple on/off switches be replaced with communications and user interface logic that can talk to every socket and every light. Lighting solutions from different manufacturers need to be interchangeable particularly in consumer applications. Unfortunately, as of yet, there is no standardized communication or control interface for lighting applications. This may be resolved in 2014 via the low cost and widely deployed wireless technologies that are commonplace today. With smart phones that can connect to the Internet, we all carry around high-level controllers so one expensive part of the equation is largely already purchased. Whether wireless control will tend to standardize around Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, or ZigBee remains to be seen as these and other protocols are all viable contenders. The year 2014 may well be a tipping point for standardization here.

In a novel approach, LEDs are finding application in flooring through partnerships between technology companies and manufacturers – such as the agreement between Philips and Desso for integration of LEDs with light transmissive carpets. “Solid-state” carpets will literally lead the way to new applications in buildings – guiding people around buildings and to safety exits and broadly placing useful information just where and when it’s most needed (Figure 4).

Lighting

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Perceptual Tech

While enhanced hardware solutions continue to emerge for smart sensors, systems designers are looking to surround users with a more natural environment that provides an immersive experience via interacting with IoT devices and the cloud. Among key technology trends in 2014, perceptual technology will gain broader appeal and further penetration in familiar computing systems.

Beyond applications in identification and security, perceptual technology promises to enable a more powerful means for user interaction through eye movement and gesture control. Although camera-based gesture control systems have somewhat matured in gaming in particular, perceptual technology offers opportunities for broader applications and more exact control. Ultimately, all of these key technologies – the Internet of Useful Things, perceptual technology, wearable computing, and LEDs – serve the purpose of bending technology to meet real needs as efficiently as possible. With the continued evolution of these key areas in 2014, the industry is moving rapidly toward that objective.

We hope you have enjoyed our 2014 preview article and found the predictions to be both informative and useful. This coming year, Mouser will be introducing new products around these and other new technologies, in addition to featuring many more detailed technical articles to help engineers navigate an increasingly complex design landscape. Our goal is to make Mouser.com the go-to place for the latest products and technology information. Check back frequently as we roll out new material and let us know if there are any issues on which you would like us to focus.

Figure 2. Perceptual technology enables users to engage in more natural interactions with computers across multiple platforms. Source: Intel

Best wishes for the New Year from all of us atMouser Electronics!