SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Technical feasibility of PV projects

Dr Thomas REINDLDeputy CEOCluster Director Solar Energy Systems

Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS)National University of Singapore (NUS)

SERIS INDUSTRY DAY on “PV Quality and Asset ManagementNUS, University Hall14 August 2017

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Outline

Location- / site-specific feasibility

Risk assessment (micro-scale)

3SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Feasibility BiddingProcess Engineering Approvals Procurement

ConstructionTesting

and commissioning

Operation and maintenance

Asset Management

Overview of Project LifecycleFollowing the project value chain

4SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Feasibility study for optimized output

Optimised PV system

output

Siting

DesignGrid inte-gration

Stakeholder involvement Project development

5SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Sources of flaws in PV systemsMajority come from poor system design and implementation

57%30%

13%

Example: Germany

Implementationand installationSystem designand planningIndustry(components)

Source: Solarklima e.V.

6SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Is the location optimally suited for PV?System siting

Areas of concerns

Irradiance on site (incl. specific weather phenomena)

Potential shading from nearby objects(today and in the future)

Mechanical fixing of the PV systems:(Soil conditions for ground-mounted systems;Roofing material / structure for roof-top PV)

Long-term impact of the environment(dust accumulation, wind, snow, etc.)

Positive examples

Solar potential assessment (roof-tops) Geographic Information System (GIS)

layering techniques

7SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

PV potential analysisDetailed assessment by building and cumulative for the city

Analysis based on: orientation, azimuth shadow simulation obstructions

Source: FH Frankfurt, Aerowest

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Implement the Perez diffuse irradiance model calibrated to Singapore

Sky comprises of three geometrical parts: the circumsolar disk, horizon band and the isotropic background

Determine solar insolation for every pixel on a building and visualize

Each building pixel has a unique ID and solar insolation value associated with it

3D Modelling of Urban AreasRay-tracing of building pixels with sky dome pixels

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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3D Modelling of Urban Areas - ResultsFull solar insolation profile of a downtown area in Singapore

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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3D Modelling of Urban Areas - ResultsMarina Bay Sands (modern city, complex geometry)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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3D Modelling of Urban Areas - ResultsSydney Opera House (modern city, complex geometry)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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3D Modelling for PV feasibility studiesExample: 3D assessment from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones)

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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3D Modelling for PV feasibility studiesExample: 3D model of individual building

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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3D Modelling for PV feasibility studiesExample: 3D model with solar panels

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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3D Modelling for PV feasibility studiesExample: 3D model with irradiation for yield assessment

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Optimised PV grid integration planningusing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) layers

Source: UIS (picture)

PV sites

grid

demand

solar

usage

reality

PV sites: resulting optimum location

grid: existing power grid lines

demand: distribution of power usage

solar: high-resolution irradiance map

usage: land use (urban, commercial, industrial, agriculture)

reality: actual geographic map of the area under investigation for optimum PV systems locations

17SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

How to maximise the performance?System design

Areas of concerns

PV module technology(absorber, area efficiency, temperaturecoefficient)

Balance-of-systems component selection(central vs. string inverters, support structure)

Warranty conditions of the various components PV system monitoring with fault detection and

immediate alerts ...and: can proper system implementation be

ensured

Positive examples

Best-practice studies and simulations (yield assessments)

Optimised system design based on location-specific analysis

18SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

How to integrate PV into electric grids?PV grid integration

Areas of concerns

Connection point(location, distance, feed-in voltage)

Load / Grid capacity at the connection point Grid availability

(frequent outages?) Grid stability

(voltage profile, harmonic distortions, etc.)

Positive examples

Power system simulations and impact studies Specific grid codes for PV Make solar PV systems an active part of the

grid

19SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Outline

Location- / site-specific feasibility

Risk assessment (micro-scale)

20SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Performed detailed assessment of technical risks and the system design concept, broken down in detailed categories:

Component level (13):Risk analysis of each single component such as modules, inverters, cables/connectors, array combiner boxes, transformers etc.)

System level (25):Risk analysis of system design aspects such as civil, mechanical and electrical parameters, component concepts, temperature management, grounding/lightning protection, testing & commissioning, implementation monitoring

O&M level (16):Risk analysis of aspects such as O&M concept, spare part provision, preventive maintenance, performance monitoring, soiling and cleaning routines etc.)

Quantitative risk assessmentOn PV system level, evaluating 54 different possible risk factors

21SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Categorization of risksWith respect to the impact on the Net Present Value (NPV)

Rating Description % over the life of the project Annual Frequency5 Almost certain 90% or greater chance to occur Up to once in 2 years or more4 Likely 65% up to 90% chance to occur Up to once in 3 years or more3 Possible 35% up to 65% chance to occur Up to once in 10 years or more2 Unlikely 10% up to 35% chance to occur Up to once in 20 years or more1 Rare < 10% chance to occur Up to once in 30 years or more

Rating % of negative impact on base case NPV Safety

5 >20% significant injuries or fatalities due to a technical fault4 >15% risk of significant injuries or fatalities due to technical fault3 >10% most likely no injuries/fatalities due to technical fault2 >5% most likely no injuries/fatalities due to technical fault1 > 0% < 5% most likely no injuries/fatalities due to technical fault

Probability scale:

Severity scale:

22SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Probability-based impact assessmentRisk mapping matrix

Source: SERIS; methodology adapted from Altran / Arthur D Little

<5% >5% >10% >15% >20%1 2 3 4 5

Almost certain 5 5 10 15 20 25

Likely 4 4 8 12 16 20

Possible 3 3 6 9 12 15

Unlikely 2 2 4 6 8 10

Rare 1 1 2 3 4 5

High Intorable / must be reduced to ALARP (as low as reasonably possible)Medium Might be reduced to ALARPLow Acceptable

Prob

abili

ties

Severity: negative change in NPV / safety impact

C1.1

C2.1

C1.2

C2.2

C3.1

C5.1

S4.4

C4.2 C6.2

C4.1

C3.2

C6.1

S3.2

S4.5

C5.2

S4.2S4.3

S7.1S7.2

C1.3

S1.1

S1.2

S2.1S2.2

S3.1S8.1

S10.1

S10.1-10.6

OM4.6

S10.7/8

OM4.3-4.5

OM4.1

OM4.2

PV module soiling

PV module degradation

Project delays due to concrete structure

Inappropriatetilt angle of PV module

PV module temperature

ImproperPR calculation

Cables andConnectors failure

Inverter failures

23SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Areas SERIS’ servicesSiting • Solar potential analysis (for urban areas)

• GIS layering techniques (for regional analysis)

System design • Yield assessments• Due diligences• PV system design & implementation targeted for

optimised performance

Grid integration • Grid simulation studies• Impact studies of PV deployment on the stability

of electric power grids (central, de-central)• Integration strategies for high PV penetration

(incl. demand response, storage)• Irradiance forecasting on different time scales

TECHNO-FINANCIAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

SERIS’ servicesSupporting all stakeholders in optimising PV systems

24SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

Thank you for your attention!

thomas.reindl@nus.edu.sg

More information at www.seris.sgwww.solar-repository.sg

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