technical and technological solutions 11 december 2020 · 2020. 12. 22. · pre-conference...

Online Pre-Conference

WATER, MEGACITIES AND GLOBAL CHANGE

7 – 11 December 2020

Technical And Technological Solutions11 December 2020

Solutions That Leverage The Resilience Of Water Supply Systems –The Experience of EPALAna Margarida Luís, Conceição Almeida, Francisco Serranito

PRE-CONFERENCE “WATER, MEGACITIES AND GLOBAL CHANGE”

Summary

1. About EPAL2. Integrated Risk Framework3. Smart Technologies As Barriers To Strategic Risks 4. Foresight Analysis5. Conclusions


1. About EPAL

EPAL is a profitable company founded in 1868, supplying drinking water to more than ¼ of the Portuguese population (2,9 M inhab). The supply system comprises assets whose value is aprox. 700 M€.

Since 2015 EPAL has been responsible to manage the concession of AdVT, a new water and wastewater company that resulted from merging 4 former companies, serving around 1,0 M inhab.


Summary



2. Integrated Risk Framework

“Strategic Risk Management in Water Utilities:

Development of a Holistic Approachlinking Risks and Futures”

What are our current and future

vulnerabilities? STRATEGIC RISKS’ ASSESSMENT, IN THE PRESENT

Strategic objectives’ identification

Events/exposures/harms systemic model

“Side by side” risks comparison

STRATEGIC RISKS’ ASSESSMENT, IN THE MID AND LONG-TERM

Mega-trends characterization

Construction of future scenarios

“Side by side” risks (evolution) comparison

2010:


3. Subtitle

Text : Calibri, dark grey, size to adjust


4. Subtitle

Text : Calibri, dark grey, size to adjust



“Side by side” strategic risks comparison

(in the present)







LIK

ELIH

OO

D

PROFITABILITY

SUSTAINABILITY

RELIABILITY

REPUTATION

QUALITY

QUANTITY

CONSEQUENCE



CROSS-CONSISTENCY

ANALYSIS –

FUTURE SCENARIOS

State of the

economyEnergy prices

Consumption

patterns&environ

mental behaviour

Water quality Water availabilityRegulation and

legislation

Infrastructure

development

Technology

development

GrowthSignificant

increase

Consumption

slight decrease

Significant

improvement

C.Bode reservoir

level>121,5m or

Tagus >+8m

Compliance

driven by EU

Resource

scarcity: min. for

Maintenance and

min. for Capex

Low degree of

automation; no

global vision of

system

StagnationSlight increase or

decrease

Consumption

significant

decrease

Slight

improvement

C.Bode reservoir

level>100m or

+4m<Tagus<+6m

Compliance

driven by National

Law

"Normal":

Increase

Maintenance and

Decrease Capex

Developed

degree of

automation;

global view of

system

FluctuationRemains the

same

Consumption

remains stable

Remains the

same

C.Bode reservoir

level<100m or

-1m<Tagus<+4m

Compliance

driven by self-

regulation

Resource

abundance

:Decrease

Mainten. and

Increase Capex

Best in class.

Import / Develops

and exports own

tech.

Recession FluctuationConsumption

slight increase

Slight

degradation

C.Bode reservoir

level <89m or

Tagus< -2m

Compliance

driven by lobby

groups

Significant

decrease

Consumption

significant

increase

Significant

degradation


2. Risk Framework

CROSS-CONSISTENCY

ANALYSIS –

FUTURE SCENARIOS

Reference scenarioAs Portugal has just exited an economic recession, the state of the economy is becoming stagnant. Energy prices register slight positive or negative

fluctuations, and consumption patterns evidence a slight decrease. Both water quality and water availability at source remain at good levels. Water

supplied complies with national standards and economic regulation is becoming gradually stronger. Infrastructure developments return to their “normal”

configuration, i.e., increasing maintenance and reducing capital investment, thus optimizing assets' life without compromising the agreed levels of

service to the clients. The company maintains a developed degree of automation, allowing a global view of the system and its centralized operation.

Scenario 1 - Water scarcity Downscaled climate change scenarios indicate that severe drought periods are expected to occur in the next 40 years. During these periods, that may

extend over one year or more, there may be a fluctuation in the prices of energy, as energy production is also affected by droughts, as well as a

fluctuation in the state of the economy. Consumptions will decrease due to restrictions imposed by EPAL and the regulator. Water quality at sources will

also decrease, due to the reduction in flows in the water bodies, which augments the concentration of pollutants. This decrease of water quality may

become significant if compliance with environmental standards is self regulated and economic regulation is weak. In order to cope with the increased

water treatment operational costs and the costs associated with the implementation of adaptation measures to water scarcity, along with the reduction in

revenue due to a decrease in consumption, tariffs will be gradually increased. EPAL will decrease the regular investment costs, thus increasing

maintenance expenditure, and will maintain a developed degree of automation, since having a global view of the system is shown to be crucial for its

operation in this scenario.

Scenario 2 - Financial resources‘ scarcityIn a prolonged global economic recession context, water quality at sources gets worse, since industries and municipalities cannot afford adequate

treatment of the wastewater they produce and, on the other hand, farmers tend to use non-approved pesticides. EPAL faces a significant decrease in

consumption, which lowers annual revenue. Both capital and operational expenditures are constrained, and part of the installed automation system may

begin to fail. EPAL moves from a preventive attitude in asset management towards a reactive one. Economic regulation is weak, since regulators know

that water utilities have no financial resources either to put measures in place to accomplish the established levels of service or to pay any fines.

Development of new solutions or technology may occur, due to the need to find cheaper ways to operate the water supply system.

Scenario 3 - Strong economic growthSignificant improvement in water quality happens in a context of strong economic growth. Although existing industries in

the watershed increase their activity and new ones arise, they comply with EU water quality legislation and treat all the

wastewater before it is discharged into the rivers or the sewage network. Farmers also use permitted pesticides only,

complying with the Nitrates Directive. Municipalities' wastewater treatment is of secondary or tertiary levels. There

is a slight increase in water consumption. This context of strong economic growth makes way to an increase in Capex,

targeting trunk mains' rehabilitation because of their ageing process, and also enables the company to

adopt or develop new technology, becoming “best in class”. For example, EPAL augments its own power

generation capacity, through the production of solar, wind and micro-hydric energy. As a result of all these

factors, EPAL faces a reduction in Operational Expenditure, due to reduced costs with energy and chemicals,

as well as to an increase in the revenue from the clients.



Evolution of Strategic Risks (in the future)

LIK

EL

IHO

OD

CONSEQUENCE

PROFITABILITY

SUSTAINABILITY

RELIABILITY

REPUTATION

QUALITY

QUANTITY

(reference scenario)

LIK

EL

IHO

OD

CONSEQUENCE

PROFITABILITY

SUSTAINABILITY

RELIABILITY

REPUTATION

QUALITY

QUANTITY

(water scarcity scenario)








Summary

1. About EPAL2. Integrated Risk Framework3. Smart Technologies As Barriers To Strategic Risks4. Foresight Analysis5. Conclusions


3. Smart Technologies As Barriers To Strategic Risks



Eg.#1: Asset Management

LISBON DISTRIBUTION NETWORKRENEWAL – PRIORITY AREAS



Eg.#2: Smart Network Management

Remote

supervision and

operation of all

drinking water

production and

transport

processes

Algorithm that identifies suspension zones

with a low service quality level, based on a

risk matrix criteria.

Customer relation management application

that integrates commercial and technical

information, including mobility functions

Provide customers

with information about

their water

consumption, allowing

them to optimise the

use of water in their

homes or businesses

(warning even

possible bursts)

Support energy management in water supply

and waste water utilities, aiming energy

operational and economic optimisation.



Eg.#3: Business Continuity

- Definition of contingency plans for drought;

- Contact with security forces, health entities and NGO´s;

- Contacts with various official entities, including the regulator;

- Contacts with municipalities for support;

- Developing campaigns in the media;

- Strengthening the supply ducts, allowing redundancy;

- Preparation of alternative supply channels

Drought Contingency Plans

Emergency Plans


Summary



4. Foresight Analysis



Current vulnerability = Low (due to natural conditions + adaptation measures in the past)

Megatrend: Climate change




Future vulnerability = ???

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1980-2009 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

N m

ine

ral (

ton

/an

o)

A2 N mineral: Rio Zêzere - Castelo de Bode

Clima Clima + sócio-economia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980-2009 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099

P t

ota

l (to

n/a

no

)

B2 P total: Rio Zêzere - Castelo de Bode

Clima Clima + sócio-economia

Low to Medium




Flexible Adaptation Plan ?climate change indicatorsA1.4

A1.1

A4.1

A2.1

A6.1

A.Extra

A2.2

B1.1

B2.4

B.Extra

B2.6

C1.1

C3.1

C4.1

C.Extra

D1.2

D1.1

D1.3

E.Extra

E1.1

E4.1

E1.2

F3.1

Longo prazo

EF

Curto prazo Médio prazo

AB

CD

Systems’ interconnections

ProtocolC. Bode

WTP requalification

C. Bode Dam bottom discharge

Water losses reduction

Shared solutions

Intakes’ protection zones

Desalination plant in Lisbon

New spur in Tagus river

Water import via maritime vessels

Reduce pressure at peak hours

Forecast models based on CCindicators – I&D

New wells

Consideration of CC impacts in the design of assets

2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Outubro 1 100,0% 0,2 2,8 0,9 0,8 0,8 0,6 0,8 0,5 1,1 0,8

Novembro 2 100,0% 0,6 6,0 0,7 0,5 0,8 1,1 0,9 0,9 1,2 1,4 <1

Dezembro 3 100,0% 1,2 6,5 0,7 0,6 1,4 2,0 1,1 1,4 1,6 1,8 >=1<1,25

Janeiro 4 100,0% 1,7 6,8 0,9 1,3 3,1 3,5 1,4 2,4 3,3 2,4 >=1,25<1,50

Fevereiro 5 100,0% 2,0 7,7 1,0 2,1 4,6 4,4 1,6 3,3 6,5 2,9 >1,50

Março 6 100,0% 2,6 8,0 1,2 2,4 6,5 5,0 1,7 5,3 7,3 3,1

Abril 7 100,0% 2,9 7,9 1,5 2,4 7,0 5,4 1,7 6,6 8,1 3,2

Maio 8 100,0% 3,0 8,1 1,6 2,6 7,7 6,1 1,8 7,1 8,7 3,3

Junho 9 100,0% 3,1 8,3 1,8 2,8 8,0 7,0 2,0 7,6 9,3 3,5

Julho 10 100,0% 3,1 8,5 2,0 3,1 8,2 7,4 2,0 7,8 9,5 3,7

Agosto 11 100,0% 3,2 8,2 2,1 3,2 8,0 7,5 2,0 7,5 9,2 3,7

Setembro 12 100,0% 3,0 7,7 2,1 3,1 7,4 7,0 2,0 7,1 8,7 3,5

Mês (ordinal) do ano

hidrológico

Caudais acumulados ao mês de observação em comparação com o período de referência 2004-2005

CAUDAL AFLUENTE ANUAL CASTELO DO BODE


Summary



Conclusions

The Strategic Risk Management Approach

i. represents the first approach combining risk and futures;

ii. allows the company to have an integrated view of its strategic risks, with an influence diagram;

iii. shows the role of smart technologies in securing the corporate strategic objectives;

iv. allows the company to anticipate how strategic risks might change in the mid- and long-term and to timely adopt adaptation measures;

v. provides the basis for the utility Master Plan [Chinese Proverb].


Conclusions

i. Both the Strategic Risk Management approach and the Adaptaclima project are successful examples of collaboration between industry and research.

ii. The approach followed by EPAL is aligned with the European Commission (EC) first strategic forward-looking report recently adopted, to identify emerging problems and opportunities in order to guide the necessary transitions in a sustainable way and adapted to the specificities of each city, keeping strategic risks at acceptable levels.

iii. We strongly believe this approach can be adopted by other entities with management roles in mega-cities, contributing to leverage their pathway towards resilience.

Online Pre-Conference

WATER, MEGACITIES AND GLOBAL CHANGE

7 – 11 December 2020

Thank you for your attention !

Ana Margarida Luí[email protected]

technical and technological solutions 11 december 2020 · 2020. 12. 22. · pre-conference...

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