10/08/2016

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD

“Nothing has changed on the daily chart of the EUR/USD forex market. It is still in its month-long trading range after what was probably an exhaustive sell climax.” – based on Brooks Price Action

EUR/USD surges to 1.1090 on Wednesday

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.1328/1.1341 Bollinger Band; weekly R3

■ R2 1.1229/64 55 and 100-day SMA; weekly R2

■ R1 1.1129/57 Monthly PP; 20-day SMA; weekly R1

■ S1 1.1079/88 200-day SMA; weekly PP

■ S2 1.0972 Weekly S1

■ S3 1.0929 Bollinger Band

Pair’s Outlook The Euro surged marked a session of gains against the US Dollar on

Wednesday, as the currency exchange rate increased from 1.1059 at

the start of day’s trading to 1.1090 at the end of the day. The pair

passed the weekly pivot point at 1.1079, and it stopped exactly at the

200-day simple moving average. Thursday morning, the rate is

continuing to move higher, as it reached 1.1108 mark by 4:45 GMT. On

the way up, the exchange rate is set to move to the monthly PP at

1.1149. However, the 20-day SMA at 1.1128 will likely show some

resistance to the pair.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders continue to be bearish on Thursday, as 54% of open

positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip

range are 56% short.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Wednesday, August 10, 2016 07:30 GMT

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -8% -6% -6%

-12% -26% -34% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Neutral Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Buy

Aggregate ↘ → →

“The bullish bias will be suggested on the intraday and short term basis unless we witnessed clear break and holding below 1.1067 level.” – based on economies.com

EUR/USD surges above 1.1150 on Wednesday

Pair’s Outlook The common European currency is surging against the US Dollar on

Wednesday, as the currency exchange rate broke through resistance

put up by the 55-day SMA at 1.1150 by 5:00 GMT. Previously the rate

surpassed the 20-day SMA and monthly PP at 1.1107 on Tuesday and

the weekly PP at 1.1122 in the early morning of Wednesday’s trading

session. Daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the

rest of Wednesday’s trading session. However, the weekly forecast

shows a fall for the rate, which at the moment seems unlikely.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders increased their bearish sentiment, as 59% of open

positions were short on Wednesday morning. In the meantime pending

commands are slightly bearish, as 52% of pending orders are short.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.1197 Weekly R1

■ R2 1.1150 55-day SMA

■ R1 1.1122 Weekly PP

■ S1 1.1107 Monthly PP; 20-day SMA

■ S2 1.1080 200-day SMA

■ S3 1.1017/10 Monthly and weekly S1s

Wednesday, August 10, 2016 07:30 GMT

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -18% -12% -10%

-4% -2% -2% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Buy

Aggregate ↗ ↘ →

GBP/USD finds support at 1.30

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.3370 Bollinger band

■ R2 1.3289/1.3322 Weekly R1; 23.60% Fibo

■ R1 1.3155/76 Weekly and monthly PPs; 20-day SMA

■ S1 1.2982/39 Bollinger band; weekly S1

■ S2 1.2860 Monthly S1

■ S3 1.2805/1.2789 Weekly S2; July low; down-trend

Pair’s Outlook Having slumped for the fifth time in a row, the Cable still managed to

remain above the 1.30 handle on Tuesday. Investors appear to be

taking profit after the plunge, but the 1.31 mark is still a difficult goal to

achieve. However, the nearest resistance is still located around 1.3165,

represented by the 20-day SMA, the weekly and the monthly PPs.

Meanwhile, the 1.30 level is being bolstered by the weekly S1 and the

Bollinger band, contributing to the Sterling’s rebound today.

Nevertheless, risks of intraday gains being erased persist, which could

result in a further decline below 1.30, as technical indicators retain

mixed signals.

Traders’ Sentiment Sentiment is mostly neutral, as bulls are outnumbering the bears by

only 4% points. The share of sell orders increased from 62 to 64%.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Wednesday, August 10, 2016 07:30 GMT

“Markets don’t sense any urgency for the Fed to move. It’s definitely a headwind for the dollar.” - Westpac Banking Corp. (based on Bloomberg)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 4% 10% 2%

-28% -24% -26% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Buy Buy

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Sell Neutral

CCI (14) Buy Neutral Buy

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Sell

Aggregate → ↘ →

USD/JPY risks falling back under 101.00

Level Rationale

■ R3 104.72/105.14 Weekly R3; 55-day SMA; down-trend

■ R2 103.86/91 Weekly R2; 20-day SMA

■ R1 102.85/103.18 Weekly R1; monthly PP

■ S1 101.76 Weekly PP

■ S2 100.74/70 Weekly S1; 50% Fibo

■ S3 99.74/61 Bollinger band; weekly S2

Pair’s Outlook For the second consecutive week the USD/JPY currency pair bounced

back from the 102.50 level, unable to surge higher. Even though the

Buck found support, represented by the weekly PP, at 101.76

yesterday, technical studies suggest this level is likely to be pierced

today. The key support is located around 100.70 mark, namely the 50%

Fibo and the weekly S1. In case this area gives in, the pair would then

risk falling below the 100.00 mark and possibly even a retest of the

falling wedge’s lower boundary around 96.00. However, another

rebound is eventually expected, which would trigger USD-buying and

ultimately lead to an upside breakout from the wedge.

Traders’ Sentiment Market sentiment remains moderately bullish, as 59% of traders hold

long positions. The number of buy orders inched down from 55 to 54%.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Wednesday, August 10, 2016 07:30 GMT

“Low U.S. productivity growth could suggest the third quarter growth can't be fantastic. That in turn would mean the Fed will not need to raise rates.” - Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management (based on Reuters)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 18% 16% 20%

8% 10% 18% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Neutral

ADX (14) Neutral Sell Sell

CCI (14) Neutral Buy Buy

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Buy Sell

Aggregate ↘ → ↘

Gold surges past pivot points on Wednesday

Pair’s Outlook The yellow metal started to surge on Tuesday, and it continued the

movement on Wednesday, as by 5:00 GMT the metal had passed

resistance put up by both the monthly and the weekly pivot points at

1,345.31 and 1,345.68. As the daily aggregate technical indicators

forecast a surge for the commodity during the rest of the session, it is

most likely that the will not struggle much with the weekly R1 at

1,356.64. Further above that is located the upper Bollinger band at

1,367.57, which most likely will bend, as gold gains value.

Traders’ Sentiment Traders remain bearish on the metal, as 52% of open positions were

short on Wednesday. However, pending commands remained 55%

long, as they were on Tuesday.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Wednesday, August 10, 2016 07:30 GMT

“Gold continues to struggle near the 2011-2012 trendline.” – Jamie Saettele (based on Daily FX)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -4% -2% -2%

10% 10% 6% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Buy Buy

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Sell Sell

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Buy Buy

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Buy Buy

Aggregate ↗ ↗ ↗

Level Rationale

■ R3 1,367.44 Bollinger band

■ R2 1,356.64 Weekly R1

■ R1 1,345.31/68 Monthly and weekly PPs

■ S1 1,339.23 20-day SMA

■ S2 1,324.16 Weekly S1

■ S3 1,316/1,311 Monthly S1; weekly S2; Bollinger band

Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend Neutral – no specific trend for the pair Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Indicators MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction Forecasts

Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts

Second Quartile – the median price based on the

projections of the industry

First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts

EXPLANATIONS

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

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