technical analysis - ifc markets

7/30/2019 Technical Analysis - IfC Markets

1/8

Technical Analysis | November 2012

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD
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2/8

EUR/USD

Downside structure appears promising on the EURUSD with the

formation of a double top pattern on the daily chart. The currency

pair accelerated selling after breaching SMAs, breaking through

the consolidation low at 1.2801, increasing the chances for a

bearish wave.

At the time being the currency pair remains below 1.2801 broken

support however is limited by the lower Bollinger band at

1.2763. Breaching 1.2763 will shift focus the next lower

boundary at 1.2614. Alternatively, should the lower Bollinger

band hold ground the FX pair could bounce up to 10 and 50

SMAs at 1.2897 ahead of weekly peak at 1.3017.

RSI (14) is moving on the same direction with the prices

confirming lower lows, however Momentum (7) is marginally

bullishly diverging, hence possibilities for a retracement or a

consolidation in the short-term are slightly more than earlier.
http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/eur-usdhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/eur-usdhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/


3/8

GBP/USD

The dynamics of the last two months for GBPUSD looks

contradictory. There is no sharp trend that is confirmed by too low

current values of the ADX trend strength indicator. The pair has

been trading predominantly within 1.5910-1.6150 sinse the

beginning of October, approaching to the lower border now.

The nearest strong support may be expected at 1.5910 or slightly

higher. There is a lower line of Bollinger Bands indicator located at

the same level for now, as well as the 38.2% of Fibonacci extension

for the growth wave within 1.5270-1.6310. The approach to 1.5900

may provide opportunities of opening new long positions.Stochastic warns that the pair may possibly be oversold.

Closing below 1.5850 can serve as a confirmation for GBP

lowering prospects and additional sell signal, the current values of

100 - and 200-DMAs.
http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/gbp-usdhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/gbp-usdhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/


4/8

USD/JPY

USD/JPY shows the sharp uptrend, starting in the end of

September. Seems like the current growth segment will

have 5-waves structure.

At the moment, it is hard to precisely define if the 4th

correction wave is ended or not. The fact that the currentdropcorrection is confirmed in particular by the RSI

indicator that does not get below 40. There is no exclusion

that the pair may retreat below the channel line, around

79.15. As it is seen, the other strong support zone is located

at 78.75.

Either way, any price retreat will be considered as an

opportunity of buying for the purpose of local high at 80.37

renewal and probably for heading to 80.80.
http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/usd-jpyhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/usd-jpyhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/


5/8

USD/CHF

In the previous report on USD/CHF we noted the divergence

between price movement and oscillators that can be considered

as a reversal signal in the US dollar favor. The growth higher

than the trend line at the level 0.9300 has become a confirming

signal for buyers. As a result, the pair has grown to 200 DMA at0.9385 and now it keeps the growth potential. The resistance

breakthrough at Andrewss pitchfork may open the passageway

to 0.95 at 50% fibo-correction. To reverse trend in bearish

direction, the price movement lower than 0.9250 is required.
http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/usd-chfhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/usd-chfhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/


6/8

AUD/USD

The situation regarding AUD/USD did not change significantly

since the last tech analysis report. It is still traded around 200-

daily average. We noted that only violation of Andrewss

pitchfork signal line can provide a strong buy signal to the bulls.

This vision is kept in force. The price tested the designated area,and now slightly pulls back.

Two nearest sessions closure is important for further dynamics

definition. The US Labor market data (for September 1 and 2)

can lead to significant movement of the pair. Bulls can take an

advantage when the resistance at 1.0380 is violated; bears will befavored as soon the price moves below 1.0300. Target levels in

case of breakthrough are shown on the chart.
http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/aud-usdhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/aud-usdhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/


7/8

USD/CAD

Growth in USDCAD started in the middle of September was

arrested slightly higher than the parity level at 1.0020. There

is also 200-daily SMA located at the same level that increases

importance of this resistance. According to this circumstance,closing higher than 1.0020 could provide a new growth

impulse for the pair.

However, the tech indicators currently testify in the price

lowering favor: price divergence in Stochastic dynamics,

MACD fallen lower than the signal line and the upwardmovement weakness confirmed with ADX. The nearest

support levels appear at 0.9920 (SMA 20) and 0.9870 (fibo-

level at 38.2%).
http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/usd-cadhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/usd-cadhttp://www.ifcmarkets.com/


8/8
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