team green-scenario project
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Kentucky 2032 Scenario Project
Introduction
Looking at Kentucky in 1792 compared with today in 2012, it is easy to witness the changes. We
can track a significant amount of evolution in Kentucky’s social, technological, economic, environmental,
and political realms. However, this advance is minute compared to the potential of next 20 years.
Kentucky is at a crossroad. We have the capacity to make major improvements that could lead to an even
more prosperous Commonwealth. We simply need the motivation to strive for excellence and create a
better future, today.
The best way to solve our current problems and prepare for the future is to understand our
weaknesses. Kentucky is struggling to survive in the increasingly global market, failing to provide a
rounded education for our children, and disinterested in affecting change through our ill-motivated
political system. By analyzing our shortcomings and framing them in the systemic view, we can link
trends together and forecast future developments.
After investigation, six groups of these trends encompass the majority of Kentucky’s future. They
range from advancing education through technology, to projecting the future of the agriculture sector, to
detailing the internet’s effect on industry, to tracking the growing and evolving labor force, to
summarizing the coal mining industry’s impact on all aspects of the Commonwealth, and more. These
“mega-clusters” of trends are windows into the next 20 years. If Kentucky can understand these areas, we
can set ourselves up for success. The road to 2032 is a mountain, but by reaching tangible goals, or rest
stops, along the way, Kentucky can make it to the summit.
Mega-Cluster 1: Kentucky Education’s Promising Future
Education & technology are two categories in particular that will have an interesting story to tell
in 2032. Over the years Kentucky’s educational system has grown and evolved. This change will continue
over the next 20 years. Kentucky’s education system will become increasingly vital to the prosperity of
the Commonwealth, as the Kentucky labor force will compete in an increasingly global environment that
demands rising levels of educational attainment. Kentuckians will need a minimum of a high school
diploma to be competitive in the workforce of this new interconnected world.
In fact, based off current data, it’s projected that in 2032 the percentage of Kentucky students
who graduate from high school will increase 16%. There are many explanations for this increased
percentage of graduates. First of all, Kentucky will continue to see a shift in its political culture.
Historically, Kentucky’s traditionalist political culture has perpetuated a disdain for intellectual pursuits
and thereby influenced the value Kentuckians place on their education. “Kentuckians in general do not
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believe in the intrinsic value of education” (Miller 3). Rather, they have supported elitism and
government in the role of “maintainer of status quo” (Miller 3). Kentuckians’ opposition to major
political and social change or any costly change in public policy can also to help explain why there
weren’t major education reforms until the 1990s.
In 2032, there will be a larger shift away from this traditionalist political culture to more of a
moralistic and individualistic culture. Kentucky’s moralistic culture emphasizes the equality and worth of
individuals, importance of human development, and the need for social activism (Miller 4). On the other
hand, Kentucky’s individualistic attitudes reflect the system as a place where individuals “advance their
self-interests through political action (Miller 4). In this view, states cannot develop economically and
financially without a well educated workforce. Individualism has been a driving motivation for graduation
so Kentuckians can further their own self interests and will continue to be so in the future.
Although Kentucky still lags in their number of high school graduates, we have seen progress that
would suggest the percentage of graduates will increase by 2032. Based on the percent of annual change
since 1970, there has been a 1.114% average increase in number of high school graduates each year
(Childress & Howell, Table 112). Assuming this increase will continue and taking into account off years,
the number of high school graduates is projected to increase by at least 16% by 2032, leaving Kentucky
with around a 94% high school graduation rate.
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Figure 1: Kentucky High School Graduates
Data for graph from: National Center for Education Statistics & Chen, Kelly: PBS Report: Graduation
Rates Improve
Many factors and elements will drive this change. Currently, the largest driving force that has
prevented high school graduation is poverty. In the education system, poverty acts as a reinforcing loop.
The more widespread or severe the poverty, the dropout rate increases. In 2007 Kentucky had the sixth
highest rate of child poverty in the nation (Childress, Dunaven, et al 62). These at risk children are
susceptible to falling behind and increasing the achievement gap. “The number of economically
disadvantaged students in Kentucky adversely affects performance on both state test,” which in turn
affects the amount of money returned to schools to improve education in Kentucky (Childress, Dunavent,
et al 59).
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Figure 2
(Childress, Michael, Billie Dunavent, Suzanne King, Mark Schirmer, Michael Smith-Mellow, and
Amy Watts. "Visioning Kentucky's Future." Measures & Milestones 2008: 1-210. Kentucky Long Term
Policy Research Center, 2008.)
In many ways poverty is an amplifying, vicious cycle. For example, if a child comes from a home
below the poverty line, they have greater incentive to drop to work and earn money. Often times, they
have no choice. On the other hand, most children below the poverty line also automatically assume they
cannot afford higher education, or receive financial aid. Therefore, the perception has been that as long as
they can provide for their family, a high school diploma is deemed unnecessary. However, as changes
occur this mentality will also.
When a student doesn’t graduate high school it not only hurts them, it also hurts the economy.
For example, the dropouts from the class of 2008 will cost Kentucky “almost $4.2 billion in lost wages
over their lifetimes” (“Understanding High School..”). According to the “Building a Grad Nation” report
done by John Hopkins University, on average, high school graduates earn $130,000 more over their
lifetimes, compared with peers who drop out of school. “Transforming just one student from a dropout to
a graduate would yield more than $200,000 in higher tax revenue and savings from the government over
the course of a person's’ life” (Layton). The more graduates, the better the state economy.
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Poverty also trickles throughout the education system indirectly. Often times, parents play a role
in whether or not their children graduate. One example of poverty’s reinforcing loop acting through the
parents is in teen pregnancy cases. Research shows when “teenagers have children they are far more
likely than their childless peers to be consigned to a life of poverty” (Childress, Dunavent, et al 19). Birth
rates among teen girls, ages 15-17, has declined sharply since 1993 for Kentucky and will continue that
trend on into 2032. This decreased rate of teen pregnancy will help boost the graduation rate in the future.
Other main areas of reinforcement and amplifying effects of poverty and the achievement gap are
initiated with a child’s early education and child care. “The earliest physical, mental, emotional and social
influences on a child's’ life establish the framework for their lives (Childress, Dunavent, et al p 23).”
Since availability and affordability are two major opponents for working families under the poverty line,
their children often receive lower quality child care from the beginning, starting their child at a
disadvantage. The same is true with early childhood education. The educational achievement gap created
is linked to the drop out rate. Therefore, in order to increase the graduation rate we must start by
providing better child care early on. Kentucky currently offers only limited child care assistance to
families. “Full subsidies are only available for qualifying families who earn less than $900 a month,
which means they live on less than 50 percent of the poverty threshold for a family of four (“Investing In
Kentucky.. ).”
However, as Kentucky moves away from its’ traditionalistic political culture and becomes even
more integrated in the global economy, more people will be forced to receive a high school education and
slowly chip away at these high poverty rates. Some of these changes are already in motion. For example,
the Civil Marshall Plan is one of these initiatives already pushing Kentucky towards this increase with a
national goal to meet the nationwide graduation rate of 90% by 2020 (Chen). Efforts to reach this goal are
focused on closing the achievement gap for advantaged and disadvantaged students at an early age. “The
academic success of disadvantaged children will ultimately determine whether our state’s future remains
one of disproportionate poverty or gives way to rising prosperity (Childress, Dunavent, et al 59).”
Although efforts focus on improving child care, another means of closing the achievement gap is
through programs for prekindergarten at-risk children, federal Head Start Programs, and other poverty
programs. However, there has been a decline in enrollment in such programs since 2004. Researchers
suggests the core reason for this decline is that working parents need to place their children in all-day care
all year long (Childress, Dunavent, et al p. 65). In order for this gap to close and allow for a higher high
school graduation rate, the state must “tailor aid and educational offerings to the needs and schedules of
working families (“Investing in Kentucky..”).” Current efforts such as summer learning programs and the
use of Title 1 funds to fund such programs is a step in the right direction. After these programs help slow
down the summer learning curve we will begin seeing that achievement gap shorten.
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Globalization and Kentucky’s continued integration in the interconnected world will be another
one of these main drivers. As we become even more integrated in the global economy, the playing field
for competition will become even more leveled off. The future of the global economy will require highly
skilled, college educated workers. “Ninety percent of the fastest growing, highest paying jobs already
require some postsecondary education (Childress, Dunavent, et al).” This need for a higher education will
push a larger percentage of the population to continue out their education.
Kentucky will also see a decline in the number of agricultural jobs. Whereas in the past, a major
reason students dropped out of college was to help on the farm, they will now be forced to go into another
line of work. Two major trends have made “family farms nearly a ghost of Kentucky’s past.” These
trends are consolidation of small family-owned farms into large corporate operations and the conversion
of agricultural land to urban uses. “Roughly one third of farms exist today as there were in 1950
(Childress, Dunavent, et al 109).” The decreased number of farms and increased educational need for job
attainment in 2032 leads to the second trend we’ll see emerge in 2032.
By 2032 the number of Kentuckians over age 25 who have a bachelors degree or higher will
increase at least 24%. The main driver behind this increase will be the need for a higher educated work
force. “In an increasingly interconnected and technologically advanced world, Kentucky workers will not
only face growing competition from low-wage, low-skill jobs but also from high skill jobs in 2032
(Childress, Dunavent, et al). More and more jobs will become automated and outsourced. Economists say
that over the next decade, the U.S. workforce will need 22 million college graduates (Layton). According
to a recent study, 80 percent of jobs in Kentucky in 2016 will require at least two years of training past
high school (“Investing in Kentucky...”).
Figure 3
Data from: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Condition of Education." National Center for Education
Statistics
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There was progress in overcoming under education as the number of adults with a four year
degree or higher climbed from 13.6% to 20.2% in 2006 (Childress, Dunavent, et al). Overall, since 2000,
there has been an annual increase in the number of degrees by 62% up to 2000 (“Double the Numbers..”).
According to the Kentucky Council for Postsecondary Education, enrollment from 2009-2010 increased
3.8% (Truman). The Council has also compared methodology advanced by the 2000 U.S. Census
Working paper to estimate that in the year 2020, 32 percent of all working Americans (25 and older) will
have at least a bachelor’s degree or higher (“Double the Numbers..”).
Figure 4
Data from: U.S. Census Bureau, Hoyt, William. "Trends and Comparisons in Higher Education
Economics: How Has Kentucky Fared?" Policy Conference: 2004. Center for Business and Economic
Research, 2004. Web. 15 Apr. 2012.
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Figure 5
Actual and projected undergraduate enrollment in postsecondary institutions
Data from: National Center for Education Statistics
This number was a combination made using data from the Kentucky State Data Center’s
projection that put the working age population at 2.5 million for 2020 (Kentucky State Data..). Accordingto the U.S. Census Bureau, 20.3% of Kentuckians 25 and older had a bachelor degree or higher from
2006-2010. According to the American Community Survey released in February, 20.5 percent of
Kentuckians over age 25 have at least a bachelor’s degree (Minor). Therefore, if these numbers continue
to increase at around the same rate, 44% of Kentuckians 25 and older are projected to have a bachelor’s
degree or higher by 2032.
Another driving force behind the increased number of Kentuckians with a bachelors degree will
be the role virtual classes play. By 2032, the number of students enrolled in virtual classes will increase
by 70%. Online learning is one of the fastest growing trends in educational uses of technology. The
National Center for Education Statistics “estimated that the number of K-12 public school students
enrolling in a technology-based distance education course grew by 65 percent in the 2 years from 2002-
2003 & 2004-2005 (Kentucky Department of Education).” Students who were unable to take classes
because of time or travel conflicts will have access to an education they didn’t before. Whereas, some of
the cost barriers for the majority of students are housing, commuting, losing the current job they hold,
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they can now take virtual classes in their own home without being out those various costs. “This
alternative form of course delivery is a fast-growing trend and has the potential to change and
revolutionize teaching and learning at every level of education (Mills).”
Ambient Insight found that there is already a growing trend in the number of students who are
taking classes outside the classroom. If this number continues to increase at the same rate, soon a majority
of students will take a combination of online and classes in the classroom. This percentage of students
will eventually increase by 70% by 2032.
Figure 6
Data from: Adkins, Sam. “Learning Technology Innovation.” The Virtualization of K-12 and
Higher Education: 2009-2014 Forecast and Analysis. Ambient Insight. 21 Oct. 2009.
A study at California State University reported that students “in a virtual classroom scored 20%
higher than students in a traditional classroom (Jones).” The study included classes at Universities and
Kentucky and concluded that a web-based course improved student retention and performance, at least in
undergraduate mathematics and science courses (Jones).
As the population of Kentucky 2032 becomes more educated, there will also be a 32% increased
use of internet by Kentuckians 65 and older. In 2011 only 42% of adults 65 and older used the Internet
compared to 78% of the overall population.
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Figure 7
Data from: U.S. Census Bureau
In 2032, elderly (Kentuckians 65 and older) will consist of current adults who are 45 and older. In
2011 87% of these adults 30-49 years old used the Internet and 74% of adults 50-64 used the Internet.
Therefore, we can expect at least a 32% increased use by the elderly by 2032.
One major factor that is linked to increased use of internet by the elderly is the use and ownership
of cell phones. The amount of Kentuckians 65 and older who own a cell phone is dramatically less thanthe younger population. This translates to their small percentage of internet usage. Only 9.55% of people
55 and older accessed the internet using a cellular mobile device in 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). On the
other hand, 37.64% of those 35 to 54 years old used a cell phone to access the internet in 2010 (U.S.
Census Bureau). Considering that this younger population will become the group under examination, it’s
evident the use by elderly will increase.
The proximity of public libraries also plays into this number. As the number of public libraries
increases and the proximity to a library increases, there will be increased Internet usage. In 2007 alone
public libraries made 2,956 computers available for public use and trained an estimated 27,782 people touse electronic resources (Childress, Dunavent, et al). According to the Kentucky Department of Libraries
and Archives, public libraries continue to expand investment in electronic materials such as computers,
nearly doubling this expenditure between 2005 and 2007 (Childress, Dunavent, et al).” They will continue
this investment in the future and increase Internet availability, leading to increased use in 2032.
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Home broadband access also reinforced Internet use. In 2008 40% of adults enjoy broadband
access at home, and this number continues to climb at a staggering rate (Childress, Dunavent, et al).
There is also a strong link between educational attainment and Internet usage. Therefore, as
Kentucky accumulates a more educated population, their internet usage rates will increase. In 2011 69%
of high school graduates were Internet users, 89% of those with some college used the Internet, and 94%
of college graduates or higher used the internet (U.S. Census Bureau).
There is also a link between annual household income and Internet usage. As Kentuckians
become more educated, they will attain higher paying jobs. As their annual income increases the
affordability of technology levels off and access becomes greater.
Figure 8
Data from:"Stastical Abstract of the United States." Information and Communications. U.S.
Census Bureau, 2012. Web. 10 Apr. 2012. <www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/12statab/infocomm.pdf>.
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Mega-Trend 2: Kentucky Agriculture’s Looming Future
The Commonwealth of Kentucky 20 years hence will be most affected by the increased
dependence on the Internet. The Commonwealth will also at the same time undergo a decrease in
agriculture jobs across the region. These two contrasting variables are interesting in the sense
that they both seem like unlikely variables to have a large impact on a society. Scanning across
Kentucky’s Bluegrass Region you will find many horse and agriculture farms. Behind the scenes
in the Bluegrass you have a technological apparatus that supersedes the majestic aesthetics that
occupy the “Bluegrass State.” These two do not resemble one another in any fashion, but they
both will inevitably affect the Commonwealth of Kentucky.
Agriculture has been a solid source of income for many generations in Kentucky. Thescope of the agricultural sector in the Commonwealth is very pronounced. Kentucky farms are
transparently placed along highways and communities across the state (Miller, 1994). According
to the following graph the number of farms in Kentucky has decreased by a third since 1950.
This number is only projected to decline further in the future.
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Across the state there has been a marked increase in the size of the average farm in the
Bluegrass. The decreasing amount of farms has consequences for employment in this sector. As
these farms are disappearing, Kentuckians are being forced to pursue jobs in other sectors, often
jobs that require higher education than previously obtained. The agriculture sector of Kentucky’s
economy has seen a gradual decrease in jobs over the past quarter century. From 1997 to 2007
agriculture jobs have decreased by 7% ( Kentucky Agricultural Statistics). Based on the average
decreases in this sector the outlook provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects
agriculture jobs to decrease by 10% in 2032.
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On the other end of the spectrum you have an area that has taken the country by storm
and has manifested quite nicely in the Commonwealth, and that is Internet usage. According to
the following graph, the number of Kentuckians who have accessed the Internet in the last year
reached 70% in 2008. This trend came to no surprise but the graph leaves out many other
variables that are going to be affected by the spiked Internet growth. For example agriculture-
based equipment has been directly affected since the 1960s, the rise in mechanical equipment has
caused many jobs to disappear in that sector because of the advancement in technology.
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The intrinsic characteristics that detail agriculture and technology could are polar
opposites in respect to their applications. Nevertheless, the developing trend in Kentucky for the
future is expecting achievements in these categories which are set to make unprecedented levels.Kentucky has enjoyed the notoriety of having a strong agricultural base, but a continuing trend
has occurred. While the average farm size has doubled, the number of farms has decreased at the
same rate. In 2032 the number of agriculture jobs is expected to decrease by 10%. What is
driving the number of farms to go down and the size of the farms to expand? Efficiency. The
agriculture sector is not immune to outside influences. The main contributor to this effect is the
advancement in technology, this has led to renovations in farming equipment. This has produced
a decline in agriculture jobs, but the good news is that the continuing trend of the decrease in
agriculture jobs and the increased dependence on technological sector oriented jobs has in turn
lent way to an expected decrease in unemployment by 5% in 2032.
By 2032 home internet business is expected to double. What will transpire as the future
unfolds is there will be an economic model that validates the rapid expansion of individual
Internet business. The expected hikes in this area will throw the state and federal government for
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a loop. The dynamics of the culture today is forcing individuals to find other means of
employment, a trend that we will begin to see is that there is less dependence being put on
employers. The future of internet business growth in Kentucky is set to produce above national
averages in income for individual business owners. Kentucky in 2032 will have made an impact
across the country with the amount of internet businesses that are exploiting areas of Kentucky
with their business models. Kentucky will continue to see a continual trend in above national
income for people in the in the internet business just because of the with their recourses the state
has to offer to these small business owners.
By 2032 Kentucky will have shifted from a state that has had continual success in areas
such as coal and in employing manufacturing jobs to a society that has become individualistic in
nature. Where income was once contingent on employers such as Toyota and other well
established institutions like the coal and mining industry, we now will drift to a society that has
taken an entrepreneurialistic approach (UK Policy Research Center). The consensus nationwide
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is that, using the internet has proved to be more practical. Kentucky’s unique environment has
given home internet businesses publicity on a national level. The reason this is the case is
because of the fact that they are able to exploit sections of the state that has been neglected from
economic growth, which now can be reached by means of internet business capitalists.
However, the disappearing of agriculture and manufacturing jobs has still not changed
the core demographic sections of the society. The homogenous structure of Kentucky goes
farther than race, class, or occupation, it goes to the core of the idea that precedes when one say’sthey are a resident of Kentucky. The reason why this is the case is because of the internal system
that drives society to act the way it does in Kentucky. Because of Kentucky’s 1891 constitution
that constrains the legislature in being able implement policies that could directly affect its
citizens, Kentucky’s governmental power is put into the hands of the Governor. Centrifugal
forces are tantamount in regards to this scenario. An underling centrifugal force is that
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Kentucky’s Citizens do not use the referendum (Miller, 1994). The referendum would allow the
people to vote on a particular action carried out by the fiscal court or city government. What does
the lack of citizen involvement in the political process mean for the future of Kentucky? This
means that in order for economic growth and an increase in the quality of life to transpire, the
internal system of Kentucky’s political structure will have to drastically change in order to
achieve those ends.
Until mass reconstruction on the structure of the State Government, Kentucky will have
to contend with these influences that will drive the state to what it will look like in the future.
What is going to be interesting is to see how the state is going to handle the advances in
technology and how they are going to react to the ramifications of the widespread use of such. In
20 years the expected number of students who are taking online classes via the internet is going
to increase by 70%. This has strong implications for areas such as agriculture and higher
education, how the state is going to balance the budget in regards to these developments will be
exciting.
In the next 20 years Kentucky will become a much more cohesive unit in regards to the
amount of people that will have transplanted from smaller communities to larger areas such as
Lexington, Louisville, Bowling Green, and Northern Kentucky (Rice lecture, Spring 12’). Apart
from this, the traditional agriculture segment of the state has and will subside quite substantially.
This is due to the fact that farm owners are relying more on technological means of production
rather than the traditional farm hand. In 2032 there will be a 5% increase in immigrants to the
commonwealth, combining this factor with the fact that a large portion of farm workers are
immigrants today, is still not going to increase the number of agriculture jobs. Agriculture jobs
have slowly diminished over the past half century in Kentucky, this in large part due to the
evolving standards of equality that has become transparent across the country. The emphasis has
shifted on obtaining a workforce that is in tune with current technological advances. Immigrants
transplanted to Kentucky are going to find more technological jobs than agriculture ones at a
disproportionate rate. The trend seems counterintuitive but the factors such as the increase
dependency on internet connection use for communication purposes intertwined with a 70%
increase in online learning programs for higher education will in turn result in this future state.
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With forces such as the expansion of technological dependence and higher levels of
inflow of citizens into regions with larger populations, Kentucky’s business pursuits will have
shifted. Kentucky has many fragmented communities across the state, areas that are far from the
interstate which are virtually non practical for entrepreneurs or business capitalist to pursue
developing. These areas have had difficulties forming cohesive units for growth because of the
inherent geographical design around their community, such as the terrain and the low
development of infrastructure. What has transpired is the system is pushing individuals to areas
that are more conducive for finding employment, which is why we now see a substantial amount
of growth to areas with larger populations. We now see a trend that entails more jobs in these
higher populated regions. This has produced a framework for employment standards across the
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Commonwealth. The inflow of new labor to these regions has in turn built large cohesive units in
the workforce that have created unprecedented levels of economic growth for the state.
Mega-Trend 3: Kentucky Labor’s Growing Future
Job Creation: Job Creation will increase by three percent
This trend is affected by economic influences in the Commonwealth yet it is categorized
as a political trend because the government assists the Commonwealth in the creation of jobs to
spark economic growth. The creation of jobs is needed in order to allow for immigration to
increase and for unemployment to decrease. Without jobs immigrants do not have jobs to bring
them into the Commonwealth and without jobs unemployment will not be able to decrease. Job
creation in Kentucky is on the rise. Just by looking at the fairly unproductive legislative session a
bill regarding the automobile industry was enacted into law, “HB 400 amends the Kentucky Jobs
Retention Act (KJRA) by allowing companies with projects related to automobile and parts
manufacturing to seek economic development incentives regardless of their location in
Kentucky. To qualify, proposed projects must have at least 1,000 full-time employees and an
investment of at least $100 million” (Kentucky Chamber of Commerce). Although this does not
affect the entire Commonwealth, the automobile industry is huge for parts of Kentucky such as
the Toyota plant in Georgetown and the Ford plant in Louisville. When Governor Martha Layne
Collins worked to gain the Toyota plant located in Georgetown a city in Scott County, many jobs
opened up for the citizens in the area and the Commonwealth’s economy gained a great boost
from the money being filtered into the state through these new jobs. If it had not been for the
government the plant would not be in Georgetown therefore it was a political occurrence.
There have also been two other governmental programs/ acts that have encouraged job
creation:
• “Kentucky Enterprise Initiative Act (KEIA)(PDF) For new or expanded service or
technology, manufacturing, or tourism attraction project in Kentucky. KEIA
provides a refund of Kentucky sales and use tax paid by approved companies for
building and construction materials permanently incorporated as an improvement
to real property. It is also available for Kentucky sales and use tax refunds for
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eligible equipment used for research and development and data processing
equipment.
• Direct Loan Program (KEDFA) (PDF) KEDFA encourages economic
development business expansion and job creation by providing business loans to
supplement other financing. The Direct Loan Program provides loans at below-
market interest rates (subject to the availability of state revolving loan funds) for
fixed asset financing for agribusiness, tourism, industrial ventures, or the service
industry. Retail projects are not eligible.” (Kentucky Cabinet for Economic
Development).
In this scenario it is said that job creation will increase by three percent. Looking at figure
23, the job growth projections for the year 2018 is increasing for the Commonwealth of
Kentucky therefore job creation should still increase.
Unemployment is decreasing, slowly but it is decreasing. Therefore in order for it to
decrease jobs are being created. They are just being created at a very slow rate. As technology
increases as it has been more jobs will be created to keep up with this new technology. Looking back in history, life was much more simplistic, the number of jobs from just 100 years ago has
grown exponentially. Therefore jobs will be created over the next twenty years just not at an
exponential rate. Looking at Workforce Kentucky by the Office of Employment and Training,
their projections for just 2018 have job growth increasing by at least 7.5 percent from 2008. This
means that Kentucky should surpass the three percent increase this scenarios trend is referring to
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(Workforce Kentucky). As seen in figure 21 Kentucky’s per capita income is one of the lowest in
the nation.
This is a reflection of the reduction in agriculture jobs and the need for job growth.
Unemployment: By 2032 Kentucky's unemployment rate will decrease by five percent
This Commonwealth along with the Nation has been going through an economic
recession. Therefore jobs had been decreasing due to businesses not having the funds to keep all
of their employees. Now the economy is slowly recovering. In figure 20 and 24 the
unemployment rate is shown before the recession and now in the process of the recovery. Figure
20 shows Kentucky and figure 24 shows the difference between Kentucky and the United States.
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By looking at the United States Department of Labor data table figure 18 unemployment in
Kentucky is decreasing by a tenth of a point every month on average the first few months of
2012. Therefore if it continues at this same rate, it should decrease by twenty-four points yet that
is not plausible. By looking at the up and down of the unemployment rate over extended periods
of time it typically decreases by several percentage points. In order for the current
unemployment to decrease by five percent it would need to decrease by .475 percentage points.
This is a very small decrease. By looking at the typically shifts this is a very attainable and can
be surpassed. The unemployment rate at the farther ends of the state tends to be larger than in the
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areas closer to metropolitan areas. This is due to urbanization. This is explained in figure 22.
Immigration: By 2032 percentage of immigrants to Kentucky will have increased by at least five
percent.
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This is the last trend of the megatrend. When discussing immigration for these purposes,
only legal immigrants are to be considered. Immigration has been increasing in the
Commonwealth for many years. Just from 2009-2010 according to the Federation for American
Immigration Reform the state's immigrant population rose by fifty percent in one year compared
to the Nations over thirty percent increase (Immigration Facts). Due to Kentucky’s large
agriculture related economy, immigrants tend to flock to Kentucky. There are typically jobs that
the educated populous refuse to take therefore keeping an unemployment high, even when
immigrants take those jobs. Yet as those jobs are being taken, other jobs are being created with
the new labor workforce that has entered into the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Therefore the
percentage of immigrants should increase by at least five percent if not much more by 2032.
Across the world there are many civil wars and political unrest that are sending refugees to the
United States. Many of these refugees are from agriculture based countries. This is the trade that
the refugees know so it is a much easier transition to go to a state that is deeply invested in
agriculture. This explains why refugees choose Kentucky to settle in compared to other states in
the United States. Although agriculture jobs are on the decline they are still needed and this helps
the unemployment rate because many times these are jobs that the rest of the populous refuses to
take. As figure 18 shows, the immigrants not only assisting in the reduction of the
unemployment rate but to the economy as well through immigrant owned businesses.
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Mega-Trend 4: Kentucky Coal’s Bittersweet Future
Whether you know someone that straps on a hard hat to go to work or you just flip on the
lights when you walk into a room, everyone in Kentucky is connected to coal. According to the
Kentucky Coal Association, Eastern and Western Kentucky coal fields produce over 100 million
tons of coal a year (6). This massive resource may afford our Commonwealth some of the
cheapest energy costs in the nation, but coal also impacts nearly all aspects of society. Billions of
dollars in profit, millions of dollars in state tax revenue, thousands of jobs, and hundreds of
communities will be impacted by coal’s next 20 years. It is our imperative to analyze the future
of this sleeping giant and be prepared for what lies ahead. Kentucky’s history with coal mining
has been rocky to say the least, but if we can forge a new partnership and understanding, the
future, like our lights, looks bright.
When investigating Kentucky’s coal future a few trends in the data float to the surface.
By observing past influence and development, one can begin to calculate the patterns and flows
of numbers. When these trends and forecasts are melded together, a story appears. Kentucky’s
coal story incorporates three dynamic trends, which come together to help us logically
understand the future. Coal production figures, coal company employment statistics, and the
future plans for Kentucky’s Coal Severance Tax are the major trends that drive this future
scenario. Coal’s impact on Kentucky is inevitable, and by employing proper futuring techniques
and strategies, everyone in the Commonwealth can work to create the tomorrow where everyone
profits.
Trend 1: By 2032, coal production in Eastern Kentucky will decrease by 60%
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Kentuckians have been mining coal nearly since Kentucky was established. In
Appalachia, coal mining is a tradition and has served the region almost as faithfully as
agriculture. When the railroads first broke through the mountains in the early 1900’s, mining
exploded and eventually powered America through two world wars. However, coal mining also
has had its dark moments. Struggles of unionization and environmental destruction have left a
bad taste in many Kentuckians’ mouths. Nonetheless, if this past century was the golden age of
coal production, the next thirty years will begin its downfall. A handful of smaller trends are all
pointing in one direction: by 2032, coal production in Eastern Kentucky will decrease by 60%.
There is no one single factor spelling the decrease of coal production. Instead, a number
of smaller state and national trends are chipping into coal’s dominance. A Mountain Association
for Community Economic Development (MACED) report states “that decline is driven by
diminishing coal reserves in Central Appalachia, cheaper coal in other regions, a shift away from
coal to natural gas and other energy sources, and regulations that address coal’s health and
environmental impacts” (1). In other words, the cost to mine more coal is rising, while
alternative energy sources are becoming cheaper. Figure 25 tracks Eastern Kentucky’s total coal
production since 1980 and projects that amount into the future, according to these developing
factors. By 2032, MACED forecasts production to be around 20 million tones or 60% less than
current levels. Do to this expectation, this trend is very likely to come true and impact Kentucky
respectively.
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In addition, Western Kentucky’s production is also tracking along the same values.
Figure 26 portrays both regions are fairly proportional in rate of change. If Eastern Kentucky is
susceptible to these changes in the market, the western fields are projected to decrease, as well.
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Trend 2: By 2032, coal mining employment will decrease by 30%
Coal mining jobs have been the lifeblood in Appalachia and parts of Western Kentucky for
decades. They helped to stabilize a largely agrarian economy and drove Kentucky into the new
age of technology. Regardless, old stigmas still remain from the years of fighting between coal
companies and unions. Nevertheless, if coal is to continue into the next 20 years, it will be on the
backs of hardworking Kentuckians.
Coal company employment and coal production are very much connected. It makes sense
that the more resources you hope to mine, the more people you will need to hire and vice versa.
Unfortunately, in large part due to trend 1, by 2032, coal mining employment will decrease by
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30%. According to Figure 27 , production and employment experience a proportional
relationship. Therefore, when production goes down, so will the number of jobs.
Likewise in Figure 28, when data spanning two and a half decades is laid out, the trend
seems to be decreasing. If one were to calculate the average rate of change and factor in the
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production decreases, a drop of about 30% in 20 years is very likely.
Trend 3: By 2032, the funds generated from the Coal Severance Tax
will decrease by 10%
This last trend is perhaps the most important to Kentucky’s future. It seeks to the forecast
the evolution of Kentucky’s Coal Severance Tax into the next 20 years. However, before one can
appreciate the tax’s future, its history must be revealed.
In 1974, Governor Ford proposed a new tax on coal sales that would directly benefit Kentucky
and coal mining counties. Although coal companies strongly opposed the idea, the tax passed in
the General Assembly and was implemented. The Coal Severance Tax was a straightforward five
percent tax on coal sales; its returns were first mixed into the state budget, but any unplanned
excess money was evenly divided among the coal producing counties. This money could be used
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for any purpose in the beginning, yet eventually fell into an economic development role (Miller
319). Figure 29 summarizes the exact allotment of the revenue
More recently, the Severance Tax still seeks to support coal mining counties. In fact, the
total amount of revenue given back to local area funds has been increasing since 2001. Figure 30
outlines the increase and organizes it between specific funds and years. Clearly, the fund iscontinually giving a higher percentage back to the counties.
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The next component of the trend is slightly more complex. The Coal Severance Tax is based on coal sales, so one could assume when coal production drops (as was previously
projected), the tax revenue will drop. However, this is not necessarily the case. Two factors will
keep the tax revenue a float and relevant into the next thirty years. The first is simply the price of
coal is increasing. According to Figure 31, the price of raw coal has been on the rise since
around 2000. This means that companies will have to sell less coal to maintain profit levels and
sustain the tax revenue.
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The second continuing factor is a proposed idea that Kentucky should adopt. MACED
claims “experts often note that since severance taxes apply to resources that will eventually be
depleted, it is important to consider permanent funds that would allow an ongoing revenue
stream even after the resource is gone. Permanent funds are built by saving a portion of
severance tax revenues each year and investing those dollars so that the principal balance grows
over time” (4). This idea has the potential to sustain the revenue driving local economies, eventhough coal companies and mining less coal. Figure 32 illustrates this proposal. The blue bars
follow the decreased production levels, leading to lower sales, leading to smaller tax revenue.
The white bars chart the exponential growth of invested revenue if handled properly. The green
line follows the forecasted fund. If this plan were put into place, the revenue could potentially
counter the slowing coal production.
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All these indicators can help project the future of the Coal Severance Tax. It will decline;
there is little doubt. Coal companies cannot hope to maintain sale levels when their production is
down 60%. However, with the two sustaining factors in place (increasing price and a permanent
fund), the revenue could only drop as little as 10%. That small amount would be a monumental
victory for the coal counties. That would ensure them some cushion to fall back on when the coal
is eventually phased out. Simply because coal’s future is sunk, does not mean Kentucky has to
go down with the ship.
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In the end, what can be said for Kentucky’s coal future? It is facing a drop off in
production with a mirrored decrease in employment. These factors will heavily impact coal
counties economically, socially, and politically. A giant in the region is slowly dying, and the
repercussions will be many and widespread. Eastern and Western Kentucky will have to hang
their economic hat on another peg in the next 20 to 50 years. Education sectors will have to pick
up the slack and turn out even more trained professionals to stem the unemployment. Politicians
who ran with the mighty support of coal companies behind them will be dinosaurs. However,
with proper future planning at least one encouraging program can still offer support to local
economies
The Coal Severance Tax has a vital role to play in these counties in the next 20 years.
The call will be even louder for more economic assistance due to the higher unemployment.
Kentucky has the ability to forecast this coming storm. It is our responsibility to act, and create
safeguards for our Commonwealth’s future. Whether or not you believe coal was a blessing or a
curse, the fact that it affects us all is not up for debate. We must prepare for the lights to off,
today.
Mega-Trend 5: Kentucky Reclaimed Future
Bluegrass pastures clash with barley fields, well-bred bourbons besiege hobo-brewed
moonshine and– while cardinals continue to clash with wildcats– Baptist barbeque contends
Catholic catfish at the State Fair. Sectionalism within the state of Kentucky, in regards to the
vast cultural variance inherent between its numerous geographical and social boundaries, has a
dynamic influence on the politics and deep-rooted ideologies of its citizens (Miller xxiii).
Institutional traditions– the Kentucky Derby, “My Old Kentucky Home,” and Colonel Sanders,
for example– seem to be the only subtle common ground for an eclectic and authentic state
population.
One of the largest of these institutions, Kentucky Coal, affects nearly every household
across the Commonwealth by producing over 92% of the state’s overall electricity (KOEPD 2).
Contrary to similar economic institutions, Coal has slowly eroded the bridge of unity between
Kentuckians with financial ties to the mining industry and the rest of the population due to its
negative effects on the environment, county infrastructures and political climate. So what does
the future hold for the relationship between Kentucky and its most valuable mineral resource?
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An accurate prediction for the fate of ‘black gold’ must be founded in a thorough understanding
of historical structure and fundamentals, utilize a wide range of public and professional
perceptions to determine socio-political influences, and establish systems and trends to support
consistent themes of analysis.
Since its founding over 200 years ago, Kentucky has remained one of the major actors in
the American coal industry. This fossil fuel has been a staple economic support-beam for
counties in Appalachia and Western Kentucky, where mining is as vital of contributor to their
identity and culture as it is to their wallets. However, with this dependency comes an heightened
fragility to changes in the market for workers and communities (Blackford 5). Whenever the
profit from coal decreases, coal-mine counties suffer job loss and economic turmoil.
Figure 33 illustrates the system of supply and demand in place that place a critical role in
the amount of coal that companies extract, which directly relates to the number of jobs needed
for extraction. The majority of the mountainous regions of Appalachia, where most of
Kentucky’s coal is mined, are poorly suited for farmland. Unlike the crop and livestock
producing counties in Western and Central Kentucky, who can adjust their production type to
follow market trends, Eastern Kentucky counties must rely on their main natural resource for
financial sustenance. The only real variables that the industry can control are the methods for
extraction and utilization. Cleaner, more efficient coal mines and factories are very popular in
the Western United States, but have seen little growth in Kentucky.
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In terms of employment, the vast amount of jobs in the industry (as with most production
sectors) are at the lower rungs of the industry ladder. These jobs are usually the actual, physical
mining of the mineral and are usually hazardous in nature. Fairly high wages are received by
miners for comparatively low-skill set required. Because workers can be hired right after (or
sometimes even before) high school graduation, this trend accompanies a dramatic drop in higher
education and translates into fewer students attending college and returning to home to coal
areas. This loss, or lack, of intellectual capital can have adverse effects on a community’s
advancement.
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Given this cultural and economic reinforcement, the majority of the town workforce
becomes dependent on the success of the coal mines, companies, and industry. Therefore, it is
essential for them to promote and support coal energy because any on the publicity on the
negative effects or efficiency of coal could have political or social ramifications. Coal
companies also significantly support the other economic institutions (i.e. supermarkets,
professional businesses, banks, etc.) in coal counties by the immense input of resources back into
the system. In their absence many stores would be forced to close their doors.
Although the coal companies have a statistical– and widely assumed– authority over
county financials, current coal industry jobs actually make up a small percentage of the overall
employment in these areas. According to the widely acclaimed research by the Mountain
Association for Community Economic Development, non-mining employment far outnumbers
mining jobs in the top-five largest Kentucky coal counties (MACED).
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As seen in Figure 34, the increasing number of unemployed, working age citizens is even
greater than the percentage of coal industry employees (MACED). Previous comments
regarding county reliance on coal companies have been brought to life by this same study. The
fluctuant nature of the coal market, fueled by ever-changing legislation and industrial demand,
has led to increased poverty and welfare dependency. Kentucky Appalachia, as a whole, has
twice the percentage of people below the poverty line when compared to the U.S. average,
evident in Figure 35’s data analysis.
Coal Severance Supplementation
Luckily, however, one political policy has continued to positively affect the economic
infrastructures of coal-producing counties. Introduced in 1972, the Coal Severance Fund wasinstituted as a means of giving back portions of coal revenue tax to the counties which are being
stripped of the finite natural resource and bearing the brunt of environmental, social and
economic costs. The initial aim was to return 50% of the coal taxes back to the counties, but that
goal has yet to be reached due to bureaucratic incompetence. New legislation, however, has
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been aimed at bring the percentage (as low as 7.6% in 1992) back up to its intended amount
(KTFC).
The future success or demise of coal counties will be greatly contingent on the future
availability and allocations of this coal severance tax. Current predictions state that coal mining
may decrease by as much as 50% by 2035; this obviously would have over-reaching effects
across the board for Kentuckians. However, given current coal investments, the rising cost of
raw coal, and the increasing percentage of coal severance returning to counties via new
legislation, coal severance should only decline by 10%. With this decline comes an increased
need for responsible allocation. Former governor Paul Patton and Speaker of the House Greg
Stumbo have recently advocated for this type of innovation and responsibility. They support
legislation that would plug millions of dollars back into the educational system, improving all-
around public education and lowering tuition rates for Eastern Kentucky universities (Estep).
This would be the most advantageous use of the funds, reversing the negative stigma on
education spawned by the coal industry.
Reclamation Improvements
Another trend that has arisen in Kentucky coal counties and which will continue to play a
major in the future of the coal industry, is the increasing value of reclaimed coal land. The
Abandoned Mine Land Program and Primacy Program bonds, initiatives taken by the state in
response to the federal Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977, have ensured an
improved appreciation of post-mining property (KOEPD 24). By requiring coal companies to
purchase bonds on coal land before mining, regulating the design and environmental impact of
mines, and instituting a mandatory 3-phase reclamation process after mining operations are
complete, the state has made an investment in the future of Kentucky real-estate and county
economics (KCA).
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In addition to these efforts, and more importantly, new research and technologies arechanging the way we view reclaimed mining land. Recent studies by the University of Kentucky
College of Agriculture’s Department of Forestry have shown that reclaimed land is the optimum
substrate for tree growth and development, particularly species of Oak, Poplar and various
evergreens (Commonwealth). New initiatives are in the making to transform strip-mined land
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back to its former state of forest vegetation. Not only would this increase the value of the land,
but it would also counteract the harmful CO2 emissions produced by the coal factories and mines.
New technologies, such as tree bombing, will increase in their availability and cost for
mainstream private and public entities. Tree bombing, a tool already being utilized in many
states, will completely transform the process of forestation, decreasing the cost and increasing
the efficiency exponentially. Tree bombs– specially designed cones that hold a seedling, leaf
shroud, soil and biodegradable container in the shape of a spike– are dropped from planes in
formulated patterns at specific altitudes across a designated stretch of land. In effect, this
method of forestation can produce 600 times as many trees per run as one person on the ground
(Brown).The tree “missiles” and designed to bury themselves in the ground at the same depth as
if they had been planted by hand. Within the cone is contained all the fertilizer the plant will
need. The cone itself is made of a new, specialized material that absorbs adequate amounts of
surrounding moisture for watering the developing roots of the trees.
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In one day, a plane can plant over 900,000 trees; this would, in turn, remove over 21,000
tons of CO2 from the air each year– equivalent to removing 3,600 cars from the road. The
system even utilizes old military planes that would otherwise be scrapped and wasted.
Such trends will spike the demand for these lands and increase the already positive
environmental impacts of reclamation. With surveys showing anywhere from 750,000 to one
million acres of reclaimed land, new technologies such as this would make drastic changes to
Kentucky’s overall economy (Alliance). Markers on Figure 38 label the locations of each
reclaimed surface mine in Appalachia The majority of reclaimed land remains under the
ownership of coal companies. With the development of forested land, this would increase the
net worth of these coal businesses, affording them greater stability during rough patches in the
market. Also, added land value would improve their investments, translate into the ability to
expand mining operations and transfer these investments into technology development (i.e. more
efficient mining, clean coal factories, etc.)
Real-estate statistics show significant variance in the prices of mountain, forest, and crop
acreage. By foresting the reclaimed land, the value of the land would increase from around $400
an acre (mountainous) to upwards of $1,300 an acre for woodlands. Whenever there is an
increase in land value, it almost always translates into positive effects for the overall surrounding
communities (Halich, et. al. 12).
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Kentucky Fundamentals and Coal Affluence
Currently, the modern development of mining counties in Kentucky has been thwarted by
the rising poverty, historical lack of higher education, and poor economic diversity. Yet, there
are many important positive qualities that Appalachian and Western Kentucky coal communities
possess that will be important in laying a new foundation for the future. Similar to the entire
state, there are abundant natural resources (other than coal) such as mountains, bodies of water,
and well-developed forests that can serve many crucial roles in promoting tourism and resource
utilization. The rich, authentic cultural aspects of each area, in combination with a prestigious
work-ethic and drive among its people, can materialize into successful adaptation and
modernization. Simply put, Kentucky leaders and community members will look to innovation
and connectivity for a way to turn negative impacts of coal into positive long-term rewards.
Over 80% of Kentucky’s original coal (previous to the first mining) has yet to be mined. As
depicted in Figure 40, the amount of mining has risen drastically over time, and has now reach a
period of decline.
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As discussed in earlier sections, the link to nearly every aspect of this innovation and
connectivity comes in the form of education and its advancement. Increasing the value of
education in the action of politicians and in the minds of citizens will lead to innumerable
positive influences on the social, technological, and economic development of Kentucky. This,
however, has been our weakest area of improvement across our state’s history. Our themes of
moralism and traditionalism put a dampener on our advancement and growth. Moralism fosters
the belief that our actions should be focused around the righteous and good ideals; these actions,
following this instilled ideal, should be centered around the small community leadership and
should stay out of the government if at all possible (Miller xxix). The problem with this mindset
is that, in our modern day world, federal and state government are the only real powers that
people can turn to for policy change. Our unique affinity for “county pride” is also a hindrance to
change in communities, since counties affected the most by coal mining are the ones that are
afraid to make changes that could possibly harm its internal infrastructure.
Traditionalism, or the acceptance of a sort of political aristocracy, will remain another
stalemate for radical change. One of the deep-seeded beliefs in Kentucky articulates that the
elite members of society should be the governing individuals, following a paternalistic pattern
where families pass down the rights of leadership to their offspring and instill in them the ideals
of the culture: small government, value of social relationships in politics, etc. (Miller xxix).
Unfortunately, the elites do not have a familiar connection with the woes of poverty and
decreased education; therefore, they usually offer little assistance to the needs of coal county
citizens.
Future Coal Trend Conclusions
For the purpose of summarizing the connections between various systems and the future
of Kentucky, let us look at an important element of future development: recycling. Numerous
areas of research have linked the development of local recycling programs with an increase of
affluence within the area. A true test for the progress of Kentucky, in terms of allocating funds
and innovating new solutions to old problems, will be whether or not recycling programs are
developed and utilized within coal regions.
A 5% increase in recycling by 2032 is almost inevitable in the eastern and western realms
of the state (Fitzpatrick 5). Any additional increase in this percentage would be a sufficient
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indicator in the positive advancement of the coal industry. The combination trends described in
this section would create the perfect scenario for opportunity growth in these counties.
Decline in the production of coal will signal an increased demand for appropriate
allocation of Coal Severance Funds. Although these funds will most likely decrease by at least
10%, the successful utilization of the money for expanded education will have remarkable and
lasting benefits. Coal company’s expansion will cause an equally important expansion in
broadband internet development; this will add to the overall connectivity of these regions to
valuable resources. Faster internet will improve the education systems and opportunities,
translating in an increased number of students pursuing higher education at institutions and
online. Higher education greatly increases the size and functionality of the middle class.
Modern development of reclaimed coal property will institutionalize new agricultural
opportunities which, in turn, will bring more money back to the county and diversify its
economy and employment. The increased funding for education, federal and state programs, and
rural development will all culminate in citizen appreciation and knowledge on environmental
issues. Given that the majority of these trends successfully follow their predicted paths,
recycling programs will be developed and universally utilized by the vast majority of
Kentuckians in coal producing counties by the year 2032 (Hill, et. al. 7).
As Donella Meadows states in her book, Thinking in Systems, “Once we see the
relationship between structure and behavior, we can begin to understand how systems work,
what makes them produce poor results and how to shift them into better behavior patterns (1).”
Understanding the people of Kentucky, with all of their unique cultural and political influences,
may be the most difficult aspect in predicting its future. The coal industry has, in many ways,
created systems of economical support for Eastern and Western Kentucky coal communities;
however, the same systems may lead to their consequential failure. For the future to include both
coal production and economic security, Kentucky must turn the tables on old traditions, and
instead, support the education of its people and the advancement of its community.
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Mega-Trend 6: Kentucky‘s Social Future
In recent years, higher education has been painted as the “savior” of Kentucky. If the
Commonwealth can reach a uniform level of educational attainment, all of the woes of Kentucky will
deteriorate. In order for this hypothesis to be considered in the future of Kentucky, the first thing that
must be looked at is the likelihood that the rates of higher education will increase as time progresses.
There is a consensus among all data when looking at higher education in Kentucky: the
percentage of people pursuing higher education is increasing (see Figure 41). According to the Kentucky
State Data Center, there was a 3.5 percent increase in persons over the age of 25 with a bachelor's degree
or higher between the years of 1990 and 2000. Furthermore, in a study done by National Center for
Higher Education Management Systems it was found that the percentage of adults aged 25 to 64 with
college degrees increased from 24.5 percent to 30.5 percent between the years of 2000 and 2009. Across
Kentucky, there has been a renewed interest in education, resulting in a developing populace (see Figure
42).
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There are any number of causes for such a large trend, whether due to a social shift, an economic
necessity, or governmental incentives. Regardless of the cause, the people of Kentucky are becoming
rapidly, bringing forth a number of changes. Change does not occur in a vacuum; the significant rise in
education rates will have consequences outside of this area. This is especially significant in the area of
education, since increasing the level of educational attainment in an area is proven to increase the median
income of an area as well as contribute to overall economic growth. As stated in the 2011 Progress
Report on Post Secondary Education, “economic growth is built on educational attainment” (6). In the
same report, it was found that the unemployment rate among those with bachelor's degrees or high was
half that of those with no higher education. With higher education affecting such a wide range of things,
through increased income, a new level of credence is given to the fact that change does not happen in a
vacuum, with one change affecting other areas immensely.
One such area is recycling. In recent years recycling rates have been increasing across the globe.
In the United States, specifically, rates have increased from 28.6 to 33.8 percent, according to the EPA
(5). Environmental responsibility is no longer the scarcely thought about issue that it was a decade ago;
protecting the environment is becoming a priority, as evidenced by the increase in recycling. This trend is
of extreme significance as time progresses. Few things have potential to affect the future of Kentucky
like issues concerning the environment. Decisions made concerning environmental policy have the
potential to be decisions that have repercussions for years to come. An example of this is coal mining.
Due of the efficiency of mountaintop removal mining, it is becoming a major method of mining in
Eastern Kentucky. For better or worse, this is affecting major areas of the landscape in Eastern Kentucky
in ways that are not easily repairable. If this practice were to stop, it would take years for the land to
reach the point it was before mining; however, there is no evidence pointing to this process stopping. The
environment will continue to be harmed through this process, accumulating in damages that will take
increasingly long to repair. Similar repair times plague all issues concerning the environment. Natural
processes are slow and the damage happens quickly. Due to this fact, action must be taken now to begin
to counteract the negative effects.
Regardless of how time progresses between now and 2032, the environment will play a role in
Kentucky 2032; the environment is a constant factor. The widespread realization of this fact is well
demonstrated by increased recycling. Kentucky is beginning to realize the importance of the
environment; or, at the very least, realize the wisdom behind environmentally friendly policies.
Furthermore, when looking at the data, it appears as if recycling rates will continue to increase as
Kentucky progresses towards 2032( see Figures 43 and 44).
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Within in the past ten years, recycling rates have increased drastically in Kentucky,
growing from 15.5 to 29 percent (see Figure 43). However, it is unlikely that it will continue to grow at
the same rate. In 2000, Kentucky was 13 percentage points behind the national average for recycling
(Hatton 2010). It is likely that the astounding growth in Kentucky was only the national trend coming to
Kentucky late and, therefore, very quickly. Since the gap between Kentucky and the United States as a
whole has grown smaller, it is unlikely that the rapid growth in recycling will continue. However, data
does suggest that growth will continue, at a diminished rate. Kentucky 2032 will have more frequent
recycling that 2012.
In addition to recycling, increased educational attainment has the potential to play a large
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role in prescription drug abuse. In recent years, prescription drug abuse has been on the rise
(see Figure 45).
Across all areas of controlled substances and all ages of user, there has been a marked increase in
abuse. It seems as if there has been a social shift moving towards acceptance of prescription drug abusewhile viewing those who abuse traditional drugs (cocaine, heroin, etc,) as addicts. There is a disconnect
between the social stigma associated with a cocaine user, for example, and a person who uses adderall to
study focus when they have no medical need to it. This lack of social stigma for prescription drug abuse is
very alarming when looking at the future of Kentucky. While the government ultimately makes the laws
that govern a nation, social norms can often be just as powerful when looking at behavior. Being a social
outcast is oftentimes just as unwanted as being fined or in prison. Due to this, social norms can be
powerful forces, and the lack of a social stigma can go a long way in justifying an action across a
population group. Despite Kentucky being labeled as traditionalist, the data points to Kentucky sharing inthis acceptance as well, given that it is among the leaders in prescription drug abuse (see Figure 47).
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Furthermore, an increase in educational attainment can go a long way in facilitating prescription
drug abuse as well. One such link comes with increased income. Prescription drugs are usually accessed
through nontraditional means, i.e. not through a street-drug dealer. These drugs are accessed usually
through either a friend or a doctor, with 76% coming from one of these sources, according to a study done
by The Governor’s Prevention Partnership (Privini). These means of acquiring drugs are more tailored to
people with higher income and, as discussed earlier, higher education brings increased income. Those
with the income to access prescription drugs would be unwise to access drugs that are less socially
acceptable. However, this positive relationship between prescription drug abuse and education not shared
across other substance abuse categories. In fact, it is quite the opposite.
When looking at substance abuse in Kentucky, one must consider meth use. Meth use has been
growing in Kentucky in past years, with meth lab seizure increasing 138% from 2007 to 2009, according
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to a White House study (1). While some of this can be attributed to improved law enforcement methods,
it would be foolishly optimistic to attribute this increase entirely to improved law enforcement. Meth use
is on the rise in Kentucky (see Figure 46).
However, this trend is not likely to continue as Kentucky progresses toward 2032. Part of this
can be attributed to legislation passed in the 2012 session. There was a large focus on meth in the 2012
General Assembly session. While the effectiveness of Frankfort can be debated, it is undeniable that such
a large increase in legislation will result in better enforcement and, ultimately, a reduction in meth use. In
addition to legislation, there seems to be a correlation between meth use and income, specifically in poor
regions. Meth has been labeled as the poor-man’s drug, likely due to its rural roots ands relatively low
cost in relation to the long-lasting effects of the drug (Indiana University, 2010). However, as is the case
with many low-income activities, it is likely that meth will be replaced as income increases. This
correlation, however, has not been studied extensively; accordingly, it is impossible to claim this as likely
when looking at the future of Kentucky.
While the things discussed previously are certainly vital to the history, the most important thing
when looking at the future is children, the people that will be populating the future. The well being of
children must be of utmost concern when considering actions in the present. While there are numerous
things that must be considered when looking at the development of youth, health issues must be
frequently considered. Health is a uniform issue; if children do not have good health habits, they will not
develop into the people that can continue to develop Kentucky in 2032 and beyond. When looking at the
health issues facing youth in Kentucky, the most alarming is childhood obesity. Study after study points
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to childhood obesity being a plague that is increasing at a nearly unstoppable rate. According to the
National Initiative for Children's Healthcare Quality, 37.1% of children are obese in the Commonwealth
of Kentucky (1). This is an alarming amount, given the known health risks that are associated with
obesity.
Looking toward Kentucky 2032, data is pointing to the amount of childhood obesity steadily
increasing as time progresses (see Figure 48). There is a nearly universal consensus that childhood
obesity has been on the rise steadily since 1960 and will continue to rise. However, there also seems to be
a link between obesity and income/educational attainment. According to an article in the Southern
Medical Journal, there is a high correlation between low socioeconomic status in school children and
obesity. This presents an interesting solution to the obesity problem. If the population of Kentucky can
reach a higher educational attainment level along with the improved median income that comes along
with this, there will be fewer children in low socioeconomic classes and, possibly, fewer obese children.
This is far from a certain trend when looking towards 2032, but it is a possible aid to an issue that must be
addressed.
In the end, it is clear that increasing educational attainment in the Commonwealth must be a
priority as time progresses towards 2032. Few things have the potential to affect such a wide range of life
in Kentucky as higher education, given the link between higher education and income. As policy makers
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look toward the future of Kentucky, the first priority must be ensuring an increasing number of
Kentuckians receive a higher education, or the future of Kentucky will be bleak.
Conclusion
It is clear, through the discussion of each mega-trend, that Kentucky is changing. The
Commonwealth is moving away from its traditional roots and moving towards modernization, as made
clear by the increased internet integration into everyday life. The industries that characterize Kentucky,
such as coal and agriculture, are decreasing as the economy moves toward the global mold. Preparations
must be made now to ensure Kentucky does not fall behind.
When looking at the mountain facing Kentucky as the Commonwealth approaches 2032, a few
trends begin to emerge as vital to success. However, among the trends that emerge, the importance of
higher education emerges as the most important driver of change. Pushing Kentucky to reach higher
educational attainment will result in a brighter future for Kentucky; without it, Kentucky will fail to
progress. As policy makers look at the things that need to be addressed in Kentucky currently, they must
place higher education at the top of their priorities, ensuring that the growth of higher education
continues.