team 25 samardzija brief - tulane university law · pdf file3 i. introduction and request for...
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2014 National Baseball Arbitration Competition Jeff Samardzija v. Chicago Cubs
Submission on behalf of the Chicago Cubs Club’s offer: $4.7 million
Player’s offer: $5.1 million Midpoint: $4.9 million
Submission by: Team 25
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Table of Contents I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision ................................................................3 II. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions ............................................................3 III. Quality of the Player’s Contribution During the Past Season .........................................5 IV. Comparative Baseball Salaries .......................................................................................7 V. Past Player Compensation ................................................................................................10 VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects ........................................................................11 VII. Recent Performance of the Club ...................................................................................11 VIII. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................12 Table of Authorities BaseballProspectus, Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC, http://www.baseballprospectus.com Baseball-Reference.com, Sports Reference, LLC, http://www.baseball-reference.com Brooks Baseball, brooksbaseball.net ESPN, ESPN: The Worldwide Leader in Sports, http://espn.go.com Fangraphs, http://www.fangraphs.com MLB.com/Cubs Major League Baseball, “2012-2016 Basic Agreement,” Article VI (E) §10 (a). p. 20-21. http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf
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I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision
This brief analyzes the assets and contributions of pitcher Jeff Samardzija (“Samardzija”)
to be reflected in his 2014 contract with the Chicago Cubs (“the Cubs” or “the Club”).1 The
Major League Baseball (“MLB”) Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”), which governs
arbitration hearings, establishes that the following criteria shall be considered in determining a
player’s award: (1) the quality of the player’s contribution to his club during the past season –
including, but not limited to, his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public
appeal; (2) the length and consistency of his career contributions; (3) the record of the player’s
past compensation; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) the existence of any physical or mental
defects on the part of the player; and (6) the recent performance record of the club.2
Samardzija’s 4.028 years of MLB service time qualify him for second-year arbitration.
After debuting in 2008, Samardzija spent parts of four MLB seasons as a relief pitcher, before
finally becoming a full-time starting pitcher in 2012. Despite having been a major league pitcher
for six seasons, Samardzija has yet to consistently produce results in line with his undeniable
talent and potential. The Cubs have generously offered $4.7 million and Samardzija has
requested an award of $5.1 million. In light of his inconsistent track record, the Club’s offer is
more than reasonable, and the Cubs respectfully request a salary award of $4.7 million.
II. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions
Jeff Samardzija made his Major League debut on July 25, 2008, after being selected by
the Cubs in the 2006 MLB draft.3 At the beginning of his career, Samardzija worked primarily
1 Major League Baseball, “2012-2016 Basic Agreement,” Article VI (E) §10 (a). p. 20-21. http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf 2 Id. 3 Jeff Samardzija Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml
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as a relief pitcher and only became a full-time starter in 2012.4 Regardless of his role on the
pitching staff, Samardzija’s career has been marred by troubling inconsistency and mixed results.
Table 1 provides an overview of Samardzija’s statistical contribution to the Club:
Table 1: 5
Year Wins Losses Games Started
Innings Pitched ERA WHIP
Strikeout/ Walk Ratio
OPS against
2008 1 0 0 27.2 2.28 1.41 1.67 0.599 2009 1 3 2 34.2 7.53 1.76 1.4 0.981 2010 2 2 3 19.1 8.38 2.121 0.45 0.93 2011 8 4 0 88 2.97 1.295 1.74 0.613 2012 9 13 28 174.2 3.81 1.219 3.21 0.698 2013 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 1.348 2.74 0.736
Totals 29 35 66 558 4.19 1.355 2.29 0.723 Despite his periodic flashes of brilliance, Samardzija’s career ERA of 4.19 is higher than
the MLB average from 2008-2013 of 4.06.6 Furthermore, Table 1 shows that Samardzija has
been inconsistent and often ineffective in both his role as a reliever, and since 2012, as a starter.
Charts 1, 2, and 3 reveal a troubling history of yearly inconsistency in a variety of categories:7
4 Id. 5 Id. 6 Id. 7 Id.
0
2
4
6
8
10
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Chart 1: ERA by year
0
1
2
3
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Chart 2: K/BB
0.575
0.675
0.775
0.875
0.975
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Chart 3: OPS by year
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Even when the analysis is limited to Samardzija’s time as a starter (2012-2013), a
familiar pattern of inconsistency is clear8:
Jeff Samardzija’s inability to consistently produce results in line with his abilities is
apparent on both a monthly and yearly basis. As a result, his career number consist of a below
average ERA (4.19) and a disappointing win-loss record of 29-35. While Samardzija’s career
statistics may or may not be indicative of his talent level, his track record is that of an unreliable
pitcher, making him a risky investment for the 2014 season.
III. Quality of Samardzija’s Contribution to the Club in 2013 The 2013 season marked Samardzija’s second year as a full-time starting pitcher. As
shown in Table 2, Samardzija finished the year with a record of 8-13, and an ERA of 4.34 over
213.2 IP. Despite a strong start to the year, Samardzija’s final 2013 numbers show a substantial
regression from 2012:
Table 2:9 Year W L GS IP ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 OPS 2012 9 13 28 174.2 3.81 1.219 9.3 2.9 0.698 2013 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 1.348 9.0 3.3 0.736
In 2013, Samardzija set career highs in Games Started and Innings Pitched, but failed to
match his 2012 numbers in Wins, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and OPS against. Samardzija’s ERA
8 Jeff Samardzija Player Page, ESPN.com, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29166/jeff-samardzija 9 Jeff Samardzija Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml
0.00
5.00
10.00 Chart 4: ERA by month (2012-‐2013)
ERA
League Average
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of 4.34 was 0.53 runs higher than his 2012 mark, and a troubling 0.4 runs higher than the 2013
MLB average of 3.94. Overall, Samardzija was the only pitcher in all baseball with 13+ losses,
a 4.30+ERA, and 77+ walks.10
A closer look into Samardzija’s monthly production reveals a concerning trend:
Table 3: 2013 Monthly Splits11 Month ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 OPS
March/April 3.35 1.168 11.2 3.39 0.612 May 2.21 0.914 8.5 2.57 0.545 June 4.2 1.475 8.9 2.91 0.773 July 5.28 1.565 7.6 5.07 0.846
August 5.54 1.487 8.1 3.00 0.791 September 5.58 1.5 9.7 3.28 0.848
Following an impressive start to the year, Samardzija began to substantially regress from
June through the end of the season; he had an ERA of 5.11 over his final 22 starts. Although he
was able to pitch an impressive 213.2 innings, the accomplishment is undermined by the fact that
he became less and less effective as his innings count climbed. In fact, of the 36 pitchers that
threw 200+ innings in 2013, Samardzija had the second highest ERA.12 Obviously, the alarming
trend and inability to pitch effectively in the second half of the season raises serious concerns as
to whether he will be valuable the latter part of future seasons, and particularly during a potential
playoff run. The following table suggests that fatigue played a role in Samardzija’s decline, as
the data shows that his struggles coincided with a drop in average fastball velocity:13
Table 4: Month ERA WHIP Fastball (mph) April 3.35 1.168 95.78 May 2.21 0.914 96.02 June 4.2 1.475 95.81 July 5.28 1.565 95.41
10 Fangraphs 2013 Pitching Leaders, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0 11 Jeff Samardzija Player Page, ESPN.com, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29166/jeff-samardzija 12 ESPN Pitching Leaders 2013. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/thirdInnings 13 Jeff Samardzija, Brooks Baseball, http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=502188&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=01/11/2014
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August 5.54 1.487 94.26 September 5.58 1.5 94.97
As Table 4 indicates, Samardzija’s best month (May) coincided with his highest average
fastball velocity. After achieving peak velocity in May, Samardzija’s average velocity dropped
every month until August. His May to August velocity drop of 1.76 mph, likely contributed to
his ERA spiking 3.33 runs from 2.21 in May to 5.54 in August. Samardzija’s salary request of
$5.1M suggests a desire to be paid as an established, reliable starting pitcher. However, unlike
the pitchers that have received comparable salaries, Samardzija does not have a track record
suggesting that he can remain effective during the most important part of the season.
V. Comparative Baseball Salaries
Several starting pitchers that have recently gone through arbitration provide useful
comparisons due to similar statistics or salary requests. The cases of John Lannan, Justin Vargas,
and Jonathan Sanchez are especially relevant and verify that that team’s offer of $4.7 million
accurately reflects Samardzija’s value to the Cubs. Prior to discussing each of the comparable
pitchers, it is important to first determine which statistical categories tend to drive the market.
A. Market Analysis
An analysis of recent arbitration awards reveals that total career and platform wins, and
career innings pitched and games started primarily drive the arbitration market for second-year
eligible starting pitchers. Other categories, including ERA, strikeouts, and batting average
against have very little, if any, correlation to salary awards. Tables 6-14 show the arbitration
awards plotted with the various statistical categories of the 24 second-year eligible pitchers that
had at least 250 career IP and 40 IP in the platform season from 2011 and 2012. Each graph
includes a trendline and correlation coefficient (R²) to demonstrate the strength of the relation.
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As the graphs show (summarized in Table 14), there is a very strong correlation to the
awarded salary with respect to certain categories, and almost no correlation whatsoever to others.
The recent starting pitching arbitration cases provide a clear picture of what numbers drive the
market. In addition to the overarching market considerations, it is helpful to consider this case in
light of the cases of other, similarly situated starting pitchers in recent years.
R² = 0.65825
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00
Table 6: Salary to Career IP
R² = 0.63728
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
10 20 30 40 50 60
Table 7: Salary to Career W
R² = 0.52701
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Table 8: Career GS
R² = 0.71821
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
0 5 10 15 20
Table 9: PlaHorm Wins
R² = 0.19179
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
3.10 3.60 4.10 4.60 5.10
Table 10: Career ERA
R² = 0.12218
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
160.00 170.00 180.00 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00
Table 11: PlaHorm IP (Qualifying)
R² = 0.00411
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
4.100 5.100 6.100 7.100 8.100 9.100
Table 12: Career K/9
R² = 0.00164
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
0.210 0.230 0.250 0.270 0.290
Table 13: Career BAA Table 14: Strength of Correlation
Category Correlation Platform W 0.7182 Career IP 0.6582 Career W 0.6373
Career GS 0.527 Career ERA 0.1918 Platform IP 0.1222 Career K/9 0.0041
Career BAA 0.0016
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B. John Lannan
Lannan provides an excellent comparison, as his second-year eligible salary of $5.0
million is just above the midpoint in the present case. Neither Samardzija’s platform season nor
career stats match those of Lannan and therefore, it would be illogical to award a higher salary.
Table 15: Jeff Samardzija-John Lannan Comparison14
Career Platform Year
W L GS IP ERA K/9 W L GS IP ERA K/9 Award Samardzija 29 35 66 558 4.19 9.0 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 8.6 $4,900,000 Lannan 38 51 128 751 4.00 4.7 10 13 33 184.2 3.70 5.2 $5,000,000
Table 15 indicates that Lannan has the statistical advantage in each of the four categories
shown to drive the market (Platform/Career Wins, Career GS, Career IP). Additionally, both
Lannan’s career and platform ERAs are superior to those of Samardzija. Samardzija’s
advantages are limited to career and platform K/9 and platform IP, each of which was proven to
have very little impact on the market of second year eligible starting pitchers. When comparing
the two, it is clear that Lannan is superior in every significant statistical category; therefore, it
would be unreasonable to award a higher salary than was awarded to Lannan in 2012.
C. Jason Vargas
Left hander Jason Vargas also serves as a useful comparison, as his 2012 arbitration
award of $4,850,000 is very close to the midpoint. Table 16 provides a statistical breakdown:
Table 16: Jeff Samardzija-Jason Vargas Comparison15
Career Platform Year
W L GS IP ERA K/9 W L GS IP ERA K/9 Award Samardzija 29 35 66 558.0 4.19 9.0 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 8.6 $4,900,000 Vargas 28 39 97 612.1 4.53 5.7 10 13 32 201 4.25 5.9 $4.850,000
While Samardzija’s platform and career stats are closer to those of Vargas than Lannan,
Vargas still has the advantage in three of the four market-driving categories (Career GS, Career
IP, Platform W) and is only one career win behind Samardzija in the fourth. Vargas also has the
14 John Lannan Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lannajo01.shtml 15 Jason Vargas Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargaja01.shtml
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advantage in platform ERA, and trails in other categories that were shown to have little effect on
salary awards (Career ERA, K/9, platform IP). Due to Vargas’s advantages in 3 of the 4 vital
categories, and the fact that his career numbers are less volatile than those of Samardzija, it
would be unreasonable to award a salary higher than the $4.85 million given to Vargas in 2012.
D. Jonathan Sanchez
Jonathan Sanchez went through his second year of arbitration in January 2011, and
provides a useful comparison due to the salary that he was awarded.
Table 17: Jeff Samardzija-Jonathan Sanchez Comparison16
Career Platform Year
W L GS IP ERA K/9 W L GS IP ERA K/9 Award
Samardzija 29 35 66 558.0 4.19 9.0 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 8.6 $4,900,000 Sanchez 34 39 99 606.2 4.26 9.4 13 9 33 193.1 3.07 9.5 $4,800,000
Table 17 clearly illustrates Sanchez’s statistical superiority. In addition to holding
substantial advantages in each of the four market-driving categories, Sanchez leads in career and
platform K/9, and platform ERA. Additionally, Sanchez improved significantly in each of the
three seasons preceding his case. Notably, his ERA decreased by at least 0.6 runs each season
from 2007 (5.88 ERA), to his platform year of 2011 (3.07 ERA). At the time of his case,
Jonathan Sanchez compared favorably to Samardzija in each of the significant statistical
categories, and showed a trend of improvement. Based on Samardzija’s numbers and history of
inconsistency, it would be unreasonable to award a salary above the $4.8M given to Sanchez.
IV. Past Compensation The career earnings of Jeff Samardzija present a unique and important issue to be
considered. Most MLB players earn close to the league minimum salary during the first three
years of their careers. Accordingly, the arbitration process is typically the first opportunity that a
player has to earn a salary commensurate with his accomplishments. Samardzija, however, was
16 Jonathan Sanchez Statistics and History, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchjo01.shtml
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drafted in 2006 and immediately signed to a major league contract that paid him substantially
more than most players receive early in their careers.17 In fact, due to his unique contract,
Samardzija was paid millions of dollars for seasons spent in the minor leagues. Through 2010,
for example, Samardzija had pitched only 81.2 innings, but had already earned $9,000,000.
Table 18 shows the vast discrepancy between the career earnings of Samardzija and the
pitchers discussed above, prior to receiving their salary for the second year of arbitration:
Table 18: Career Earnings (*=salary award)18
Samardzija Lannan Vargas Sanchez
2007 $2,000,000
$381,000 2008 $2,000,000
$327,000 $395,000
2009 $2,000,000
$394,000 $455,000 2010 $3,000,000 $424,000 $405,000 $2,100,000 2011 $3,300,000 $458,000 $412,500 ($4,800,000)* 2012 $2,640,000 $2,750,000 $2,450,000
2013 $2,640,000 ($5,000,000)* ($4,850,000)* Total: $17,580,000 $3,632,000 $3,988,500 $3,331,000
As Table 18 indicates, Samardzija has been earning a salary commensurate with, and for
many years, much higher than, his value to the Club. At this point in his career, Samardzija has
earned $6,628,500 more than Lannan, Vargas, and Sanchez combined at the same point.
VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects
Jeff Samardzija has no known physical or mental defects.
VII. Recent Performance Record of the Club
The Cubs have struggled in recent years. The team has won more than 83 games only
once over the six seasons that Samardzija has been with the team.19 The overall team record
during that span is a disappointing 453-517, for a winning percentage of 46.7%20. Accordingly,
the Cubs have appeared in the playoffs only once during Samardzija’s career and have failed to
17 Jeff Samardzija Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml 18 All salary figures were taken from player pages on Baseballreference.com. 19 ESPN.com Yearly Standings. 20MLB.com Club’s Yearly Standings/Attendance, http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/chc/history/year_by_year_results.jsp
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do so in each of the last five seasons. The past two seasons, which account for the majority of
Samardzija’s innings pitched, have been particularly disappointing. During 2012 and 2013, the
team posted a combined record of 127-197, and finished in 5th place in the division both years.
Year W L 2004 89 73 2005 79 83 2006 66 96 2007 85 77 2008 97 64 2009 83 78 2010 75 87 2011 71 91 2012 61 101 2013 66 96
Since a terrific 2008 season that included a division championship and postseason
appearance, the Cubs have regressed considerably. Additionally, the team’s average attendance
has decreased significantly from 40,783 fans/game in 2008 to 32,625 in 2013.21 Though
Samardzija is certainly not the sole reason for the Club’s struggles and falling attendance, there
has been a clear pattern of team regression since his debut in 2008.
VIII. Conclusion
The Cubs acknowledge that Jeff Samardzija has shown periodic flashes of excellence
suggesting that he has the potential to be a more successful pitcher than his career statistics have
shown. The team, however, remains concerned that after pitching in parts of six MLB seasons,
the discussion of Jeff Samardzija still revolves around inconsistent results and unfulfilled
potential. In light of his career statistics, the team feels that its offer of $4.7 million is very
generous, and substantially more reasonable than the $5.1 million requested by Samardzija.
Accordingly, the Club respectfully requests a salary award of $4.7 million for the season.
21 Id.