tbilisi real estate market watch · 1 day ago · 3 tbilisi │ real estate market watch july 30,...

Please refer to important disclaimers on the final page of this document.

Tbilisi Real Estate Market Watch Quarterly update

Key takeaways

In 2Q20, real estate fundamentals were negatively affected by Covid-19 with

double digit contraction in GDP in April-May, weakening GEL and inflationary

pressures. Apartment sales contracted sharply in April and May, however with

lockdown measures being lifted reduction slowed in June, highlighting first signs

of recovery. Importantly, drop in sales was more pronounced in new apartment

category as market was waiting for government’s mortgage interest rate subsidy

program, which became effective from July 2020. Key takeaways from the report

include:

Apartment sales contracted sharply in April (-92.7% y/y) and May (-74.3%

y/y) due to lockdown. As economy reopened, drop in sales slowed to 21.0%

y/y in June, highlighting first sign of potential recovery. We expect apartment

sales to be flat y/y in 2H20, yielding 15% y/y drop for the whole 2020.

Issuance of new mortgages reduced sharply in April and May (to GEL 19mn

and GEL 40mn or- 94.4% y/y and -88.8% y/y excl. FX effect, respectively),

bur reduction slowed in June to GEL 164mn or -45.4% y/y excl. FX effect.

Market interest rates spiked, pricing in increased risks – GEL interest rates

stood at 12.8% (+1.2ppts since end-19) and FX interest rates at 6.0%

(+2.1ppts since end-19) in June.

There was one-off price spike in April, reflecting extremely low volumes and

average price of premium segment transactions. Notably, new apartment

prices were up in April (+8.3% y/y), down in May (-11.3% y/y) and June (-

9.5% y/y).

Developers and private investors started to adjust to new reality and reduce

prices, though this trend is more evident in rental investors. Almost 7%

(3,076 in total) of listings reviewed pricing policy since March 2020.

Real estate rents were down 10.7% y/y in 2Q20, explained by tourism

related demand shock. Therefore, rental yields are on the decline, meaning

that real estate price decline is also unavoidable.

Eva Bochorishvili Head of research | [email protected] │ +995 32 2401 111 ext. 8036+995 32 2401 111 ext. 8036+995 32 2401 111 ext. 8036

Kakha Samkurashvili Senior Analyst │ [email protected] │ +995 32 2401 111 ext. 4298

Tbilisi │ Real Estate Market Watch July 30, 2020

mailto:[email protected]

2


Real estate fundamentals – ongoing recovery

Market fundamentals have significantly deteriorated due to Covid-19.

Economic lockdown measures in April and May 2020 resulted in double digit

contraction in monthly GDP, economic uncertainty remained at a record high and

GEL depreciated (for more information on Georgia’s current economic trends see

our report of 21 July 2020). However, with successful management of Covid-19,

economic reopening and stabilization of GEL, consumers and businesses started

to operate relatively normally.

Annual inflation has retreated gradually since the start of the year, reaching 6.1%

in June 2020, though still far above the central bank’s 3% inflation target. The NBG

cut rates twice this year, to 8.25%, to support economic activity despite the

ongoing high inflation. We see this as a positive factor to limit upward pressure on

the cost of credit to support demand. GEL’s appreciation since mid-May is another

positive factor for real estate demand.

Improved consumer expectations hint also on gradual recovery in real estate

market. After hitting record low in April, consumer sentiment posted V-shaped

recovery since May, captured by monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). CCI

was up by a significant 12.1 index points in June 2020, compared to April 2020.

Figure 1: Monthly GDP, y/y growth Figure 2: US$/GEL exchange rate, monthly average

Source: Geostat Source: NBG

Figure 3: Annual inflation, y/y growth Figure 4: Consumer confidence index, monthly

Source: Geostat Source: ISET Policy Institute

4.7% 5.0%6.1%5.8%5.2%5.7%6.4%

3.8%5.1%

2.2%

-2.7%

-16.6%

-13.5%

-20%

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

May-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct-

19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Feb

-20

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

3.0

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Ju

n-1

6

Aug

-16

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Apr-

17

Ju

n-1

7

Aug

-17

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Ju

n-1

8

Aug

-18

Oct-

18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Apr-

19

Ju

n-1

9

Aug

-19

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Feb

-20

Apr-

20

Ju

n-2

0

6.1%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6F

eb

-17

Apr-

17

Ju

n-1

7A

ug

-17

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7F

eb

-18

Apr-

18

Ju

n-1

8A

ug

-18

Oct-

18

De

c-1

8F

eb

-19

Apr-

19

Ju

n-1

9A

ug

-19

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9F

eb

-20

Apr-

20

Ju

n-2

0

Headline inflation Core inflation

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Ju

n-1

6

Aug

-16

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Apr-

17

Ju

n-1

7

Aug

-17

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Ju

n-1

8

Aug

-18

Oct-

18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Apr-

19

Ju

n-1

9

Aug

-19

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Feb

-20

Apr-

20

Ju

n-2

0

Present Situation Index Overal CCI

Expectations Index

https://galtandtaggart.com/upload/reports/18787.pdf

3


Mortgage market – subsidy to boost issuance

In 2Q20, mortgage issuance plummeted sharply as sales were stalled.

Mortgage issuance in 1Q20 was driven by sharply declining FX interest rates.

However, this trend was reversed due to Covid-19, with markets pricing in

increased risks. GEL interest rates stood at 12.8% (+1.2ppts since end-19) and

FX interest rates at 6.0% (+2.1ppts since end-19) in June.

Issuance of new mortgages was down to GEL 19mn (-94.4% y/y excl. FX effect)

in April-20 and to GEL 40mn (-88.8% y/y excl. FX effect) in May-20, but reduction

slowed in June-20 with GEL 164mn issuance (-45.4% y/y excl. FX effect).

We expect sharp spike in the mortgage issuance in 2H20, as government’s 4%

interest rate subsidy scheme will incentivize customers to buy apartments on the

primary market. This subsidy program will last till end 2020 and mortgages for new

apartments sold by developers with the maximum value of mortgages up to GEL

200,000 will be subsidized during five years by the state.

Figure 5: Mortgage issuance, y/y growth

Source: NBG, Galt & Taggart Research

Figure 6: Mortgage interest rates, monthly Figure 7: Share of mortgages in total sales, Tbilisi

Source: NBG Source: NBG, Galt & Taggart Research

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Ja

n-1

8

Feb

-18

Mar-

18

Apr-

18

May-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-18

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct-

18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Feb

-19

Mar-

19

Apr-

19

May-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct-

19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Feb

-20

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

Total mortgage loans, y/y (exc. FX effect) GEL-denominated mortgage loans, y/y FX-denominated mortgage loans, y/y (exc. FX effect)

12.8%

6.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6F

eb

-17

Apr-

17

Ju

n-1

7A

ug

-17

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7F

eb

-18

Apr-

18

Ju

n-1

8A

ug

-18

Oct-

18

De

c-1

8F

eb

-19

Apr-

19

Ju

n-1

9A

ug

-19

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9F

eb

-20

Apr-

20

Ju

n-2

0

GEL FX

36%41%

32%

49%43%

37%41%41%

36%41%

54% 53%

23%

37%31%

41%

29%23%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

16

1Q

17

2Q

17

3Q

17

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

4Q

19

1Q

20

2Q

20

Total apartments sales, GEL mn (LHS)

Total mortgages issued for apartment purchases, GEL mn (LHS)

Share of mortgage financed sales (RHS)

4


Residential sales - first signs of recovery

Apartment sales recovered in June, after record high decline over April-May.

Apartment sales contracted sharply in April (-92.7% y/y) and May (-74.3% y/y) due

to Covid-19 and related lockdown measures. However, decline in sales slowed to

21% y/y in June, highlighting first sign of recovery. Notably, sales decline was

higher in new apartment category as market was waiting for 4% mortgage interest

rate subsidy scheme for new apartments, which became effective from July 2020.

Surprisingly, suburban districts continued to dominate sales in 2Q20, despite

suburban customer base being most sensitive to economic fluctuations. Out of the

top 5 districts by sales, the 4 suburban areas – Gldani, Samgori, Isani, Didi

Dighomi – accounted for 54.2% of total residential sales in 2Q20.

We expect that mortgage subsidies and weakened purchasing power of

consumers to further lift share of suburban sales in the nearest future, as only

mortgages up to GEL 200,000 are subsidized by government before end-2020.

Figure 8: Apartment sales in Tbilisi, 2Q (units) Figure 9: Apartment sales by type in Tbilisi

Source: NAPR, BoG, Galt & Taggart Research Source: NAPR, BoG, Galt & Taggart Research

Figure 10: Apartment sales by district in Tbilisi, 2Q (units)

Source: NAPR, BoG, Galt & Taggart Research

2,590 3,275 3,176

2,682

3,454

2,776

195

886

2,194

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

April May June

2018 2019 2020 55% 57% 59% 58% 55% 57%54% 55%

47% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

3Q

19

4Q

19

1Q

20

2Q

20

New apartments, units (LHS)Old apartments, units (LHS)Share of new apartments in total sales (RHS)

1,799 1,747 936 984 820 632 606 730 233 343 212

2,198

1,315

1,059 948 982

509 610 527

293 255 217

601 529 480 440 328 268 245 192 71 63 60

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400

3,000

Saburtalo Didi Dighomi Gldani Samgori Isani Vake Nadzaladevi Didube Chugureti Krtsanisi Mtatsminda

2Q18 2Q19 2Q2054.2% of total sales

in 2Q20

5%-73% -60% -55% -54% -67% -47% -60% -64% -76% -75% -72%

y/y growth

5


Residential prices – adapting to new normal

Prices were down in May and June, after one-off spike in April.

Apartment price spike in April was one-off as sales volume was extremely low and

average price was biased towards individual premium segment transactions. New

apartment prices were up in April (+8.3% y/y), down in May (-11.3% y/y) and June

(-9.5% y/y).

Price volatility was higher in central districts, while remained relatively stable in

suburbs in 2Q20. Weighted average selling prices posted the following trend in

2Q20:

Mtatsminda to US$ 1,346 (+21% y/y)

Vake to US$ 896 (-6% y/y)

Sabutalo to US$ 790 (-6% y/y)

Nadzaladevi to US$ 585 (+7% y/y)

Gldani to US$ 561 (+6% y/y)

Figure 11: Selling price index, new apartments Figure 12: Selling price index, old apartments


Figure 13: Weighted average selling price by districts in Tbilisi, US$ per m2

Source: NAPR, BoG, Galt & Taggart Research

80

100

120

140

160

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Ju

n-1

8

Aug

-18

Oct-

18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Apr-

19

Ju

n-1

9

Aug

-19

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Feb

-20

Apr-

20

Ju

n-2

0

Selling price index, US$ Selling price index, GEL

80

100

120

140

160

180

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Ju

n-1

8

Aug

-18

Oct-

18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Apr-

19

Ju

n-1

9

Aug

-19

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Feb

-20

Apr-

20

Ju

n-2

0

Selling price index, US$ Selling price index, GEL

965 885 694 811 709 642 597 514 536 592 547

1,108 955

756 844

940

647 644 548 529 543 512

1,346

896 844

790

673 671 606 585 561 531 513

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

Mtatsminda Vake Krtsanisi Saburtalo Chugureti Didube Isani Nadzaladevi Gldani Didi Dighomi Samgori

2Q18 2Q19 2Q20

+21% -6% +12% -6% -28% +4% -6% +7% +6% -2% 0%

y/y growth

6


Sales patterns – cheaper flats dominating

Apartment sales patterns almost unchanged in 2Q20.

In new apartment segment, medium-sized apartment (51-80 m2) sales were most

prevalent – 49% of total sales in 2Q20. Notably, the share of the small-sized

apartments (18-50 m2) went up to 32% in 2Q20 from 28% in 2Q19.

In old apartment segment, medium-sized apartment (51-80 m2) sales were also

most prevalent. Importantly, demand distribution by size among old apartments

changed slightly with demand for large-sized apartments (81-150 m2) diminishing.

Low-price segment was most demanded – evidence that low-to-middle-income

households drive demand for the housing market. 56% of total number of

apartments sold were in the low-price segment (50% in 2Q19), while the premium

segment accounted for only 11% of total in 2Q20 (13% in 2Q19).

Demand was high on medium-sized apartments (51-80 m2) in all districts of Tbilisi,

except suburban districts (Samgori, Gldani and Isani), where small-sized flats

dominated the sales.

Figure 14: New apartment sales by size in Tbilisi Figure 15: Old apartment sales by size in Tbilisi


Figure 16: Apartment sales by prices segment in Tbilisi (units)

Figure 17: Apartment sales by size and district in Tbilisi


29% 28% 32%

48% 49% 49%

20% 20% 18%

3% 3% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2Q18 2Q19 2Q20

Small (18-50 sq.m.) Medium (51-80 sq.m.)

Large (81-150 sq.m.) Very large (151-250 sq.m.)

40% 39% 40%

36% 36% 38%

22% 22% 20%3% 3% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2Q18 2Q19 2Q20



4,573 4,453

1,772

3,340 3,166

1,023

1,085 1,203

343

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

2Q18 2Q19 2Q20

Luxury (US$ 2,501-5000 per sq.m.) Premium (US$ 1001-2500 per sq.m.)

Medium (US$ 601-1,000 per sq.m.) Low (US$ 300-600 per sq.m.)

47% 46% 45% 44% 37% 36% 33% 30% 27% 25% 22%36%

37% 43% 42% 39%40% 49% 53%

34% 42% 43%34%

43%

16% 11% 12% 16% 23% 15% 15%

19%22% 28%

37%

19%

0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%17%

8% 5% 7% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



7


Residential supply – investors adapting

Developers and private investors started to decrease prices and are adapting

to new reality, especially rental investors.

Almost 7% (3,076 in total) of listings reviewed pricing policy since March 2020 on

Area.ge – pricing policy was mostly reviewed by rental investors rather than

apartment sellers. Weighted average selling price of listed apartments on Area.ge

by developers and private investors was down to US$ 817 (from US$ 870) and

US$ 846 (from US$ 893), respectively in June 2020.

New listings published for sale and for rent picked up since May, after plummeting

in March and April of 2020.

Figure 18: New listings on Area.ge, monthly Figure 19: Pricing policy change since March 2020 on Area.ge

Source: Area.ge, Galt & Taggart Research Source: Area.ge, Galt & Taggart Research

Figure 20: Weighted average selling price on Area.ge Figure 21: Monthly visits of real estate websites

Source: Area.ge, Galt & Taggart Research Source: SimilarWeb

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Ja

n-1

9

Feb

-19

Mar-

19

Apr-

19

May-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Aug

-19

Sep

-19

Oct-

19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Feb

-20

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

For sale For rent

Price unchanged

93% For sell26.4%

For rent73.6%

Price changed

20.8% of which are properties (169 in total) owned by developers

$870$893

$817$847

600

700

800

900

1,000

Developer Private

February June

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Oct-

19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Feb

-20

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

Area.ge Place.ge Home.ge Livo.ge

8


Rents down – dictating price decline

Covid-19 affected rental market instantly, reducing rental rates.

Real estate rent index in US$ was down 10.7% y/y in 2Q20, while prices were up

up 4.1% y/y. Decline of rental rates can be explained by tourism related demand

shock. Therefore, rental yields are on the decline, meaning that real estate price

decline is also unavoidable.

Real estate selling price decline will be softened by government 4% mortgage

interest rate subsidy scheme, which will support sales on a primary market until

the end-2020. This subsidy program will also front-load demand, as some people

expected to buy apartment to get the subsidy. However, this can effect negatively

2021 demand and price dynamics. We expect apartment sales to be flat y/y in

2H20, yielding 15% y/y drop for the whole 2020.

Figure 22: Real estate price and rent index, US$


Figure 23: Real estate price and rent index, GEL


0

100

200

300

400

500

Feb

-15

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Ju

n-1

6

Aug

-16

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Apr-

17

Ju

n-1

7

Aug

-17

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Ju

n-1

8

Aug

-18

Oct-

18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Apr-

19

Ju

n-1

9

Aug

-19

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Feb

-20

Apr-

20

Ju

n-2

0

Price index in US$ Rent index in US$

0

100

200

300

400

500

Feb

-15

Apr-

15

Ju

n-1

5

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

De

c-1

5

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Ju

n-1

6

Aug

-16

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Apr-

17

Ju

n-1

7

Aug

-17

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Ju

n-1

8

Aug

-18

Oct-

18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Apr-

19

Ju

n-1

9

Aug

-19

Oct-

19

De

c-1

9

Feb

-20

Apr-

20

Ju

n-2

0

Price index in GEL Rent index in Gel

9


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Head of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Lasha Kavtaradze | [email protected]

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