target date funds · -14 the worst draw-downs for all funds except smart occurred in the 16-month...
TRANSCRIPT
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Target Date Funds: The Other 401(k) Scandal
Ronald Surz
President, Target Date Solutions
(949)488-8339
Why We Care: $1 Trillion Today
Growing to $4 Trillion by 2020
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The First 401(k) Scandal: Fees
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000 $58,000
$19,000
7% 5%
The Bogle Bomb 2% fees on a 7% return portfolio
reduces ending wealth by two-thirds.
$1000 invested at 7% for 60 years
grows to $58,000.
That same $1000 invested at 5%
grows to $19,000.
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Agenda
• Definition of Target Date Fund
• Growth
• Scandal
• Solution
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Department of Labor Definition:
A Target Date Fund automatically rebalances to become more conservative as
an employee gets closer to retirement. The “target date” refers to a target
retirement date, and often is part of the name of the fund.
What is a Target Date Fund?
High Risk
Moderate Risk
Low Risk Safe
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Agenda
• Definition of Target Date Fund
• Growth
• Scandal
• Solution
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The Pension Protection Act of 2006 Establishes Qualified Default Investment Alternatives (QDIAs)
1. Target Date Funds
2. Balanced Funds (Includes Target Risk)
3. Managed Accounts
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Projected to Grow to Half of 401(k) Assets
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
$1 Trillion $4 Trillion
$8 Trillion
Source: Target Date Solutions
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Agenda
• Definition of Target Date Fund
• Growth
• Scandal
• Solution
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2008 Was a Wake-Up Call
Investors Should be Better Protected
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0Current 2010 2020 2030 2040
On
e Ye
ar A
nn
ual
Ret
urn
(S&P Return: -37%)
2010 Funds Are the Focus Of SEC & DoL Hearings
Average Equity Allocation = 45%
Fund companies assure all is OK You can watch the hearings at Hearings
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Worst Draw-downs in 2010 Funds
from 2007 – 2011 (5 Years)
Amer Fds
T Rowe
Fidelity
Vanguard
JP Morgan
Amer Cen
PIMCO
TIPS
SMART
-38
-37
-35
-30
-29
-25
-24
-10
-14
The worst draw-downs for all funds except SMART occurred in the 16-month period 11/07-2/09. Most of the loss
was in the 12 months of 2008.
The SMART 10% draw-down occurred in the 5 months 7/08-11/08.
TIPS 14% draw-down is for the 7 months 4/08-10/08.
SLGP/
Source: MPI
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The Scandal isn’t 2008. It’s today.
Fund Companies
• Nothing has changed to correct 2008
• Package Product for Profit
• Bogus objectives
• Confusing terms, like “To” versus “Through”
Fiduciaries: Sponsors and consultants
• Apathy & Laziness
• Breach of fiduciary duty
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A Detailed Look
at the Disagreements
Actions speak louder than words. Profits are the goal.
Equity shops pitch equities. Bond shops pitch bonds. What’s best for the participant?
Source: John Hancock
20% Equity
We’re landing
above the ground !!
70% Equity
Products NOT Solutions
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Types of Objectives
• Demographic based: Compensate for inadequate
savings: pay replacement and longevity risk
An objective with an impractical plan (one size fits all)
is a Hope.
Save more is the right plan.
• Universal: To be discussed in “Solution” section
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High Risk Idiotic Objectives Achievement is Unrelated to Investments
• Replace Pay:
Savings, not investments,
are key
• Manage Longevity Risk:
Try the Hemlock Fund
It’s a dark game that fiduciaries should not play.
There’s a reason that factsheets & prospectuses
never document these professed objectives.
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Risk at Target Date:
Equity Allocations of Big 3 are Way Too High
60 55 55
T.Rowe Vanguard Fidelity
85% of Total TDF Assets are With These 3 Bundled Service Providers.
There is little or no vetting.
Have Fiduciaries Really Embraced This Much Risk at Target Date?
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Regulatory Focus
1. Risk (Equity Exposure) at Target Date:
End of the Glide Path
2. Underlying Assumptions: Shape of the Glide Path
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Assumptions, DoL Recommends
• Savings for the Typical Participant
(Pay Replacement Objective)
- Current savings
- Other sources of retirement income
- Desired pay replacement at retirement
- Current pay and projected pay increases
- Savings pattern through time, employee plus employer
• Spending for the Typical Participant in Retirement (Longevity Risk Objective) - Spending discipline, perhaps as a fixed percent of current market value
- Other assets, like Social Security
- Life expectancy
- Life events, like medical costs, college funding, whatever … stuff happens
• Capital Markets
- Asset classes: stocks, bonds, …
- Sub-asset classes: styles, countries, alternatives
- Risk & return & correlations
- Glide path shape: linear, geometric, step, Mobius strip
Everything should
be as simple as
possible, and no
simpler.
Albert Einstein
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Distinctions Without a Difference
• “To” versus “Through”
• Active vs Passive
• Open vs Closed (Proprietary)
• Mutual fund or Collective or “Custom”
• Bundled service provider, or not (DCIO)
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The “To – Through” Nonsense
“To” is flat allocation
after the target date
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The “To – Through” Nonsense
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Risks of “To” and “Through”
Some TO funds are riskier
than THROUGH funds
Source: Allianz
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The Scandal
Fund Companies
• Nothing has changed to correct 2008
• Package Product for Profit
• Bogus objectives
• Confusing terms, like “To” versus “Through”
Fiduciaries: Sponsors and consultants
• Apathy & Laziness
• Breach of fiduciary duty
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Fiduciaries and Participants are Taking Most of the
Risks While Fund Providers Enjoy Most of the Rewards
The BIG Question: Why are fiduciaries allowing it? The foxes are watching the hen house.
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(un)Safe Harbors
1) Properly structured TDFs are Qualified Default Investment Alternatives (QDIAs) under the Pension Protection Act of 2006. Form over substance. Fiduciaries are obligated to actually vet their TDF selections and to establish objectives that are truly in the best interests of participants, like don’t lose participant savings, especially near the target date. ERISA attorneys and the Department of Labor have issued warnings, because TDFs are NOT being vetted.
2) There is safety in numbers. You can’t go wrong with Fidelity, Vanguard or T. Rowe. Or can you? “No misery” is preferred to “misery loves company.” The Big 3 are 55% in equities at the target date. There is no fiduciary upside to risk taking near the target date – only downside. Beware another 2008.
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Agenda
• Definition of Target Date Fund
• Growth
• Scandal
•Solution
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Adopt a Universal Objective
• Demographic based: Compensate for inadequate
savings: pay replacement and longevity risk
An objective with an impractical plan (one size fits all)
is a Hope.
Save more is the right plan.
• Universal: Bring participants safely to the target
date with appreciated savings intact
Hippocratic Oath: Don’t lose money, especially near the
target date.
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Safe Landing Glide Path
Embraces a Universal Objective
Independent of Demographics: it’s for All People
Glide Paths Disagree Near Target
Because of “Demographics”
Poor
Rich
Demographics
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Low Risk Sensible Objectives
1. Do not lose participant
savings
2. Earn as much as you can
without jeopardizing the
preservation objective
Show me how.
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Low Fees
Risk Control
Diversification
Criteria for Selecting Target Date Funds
30
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Let’s examine each criterion using
The patented Safe landing glide
path® (SLGP) as the standard.
Inexpensive, Safe, Diversified + Well Designed
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Inexpensive SLGP Fees
SMART Fund® Implementation of SLGP is 58 basis points
Fees Could be Reduced Below 30 basis points. Ask how.
SMART Funds are collective
investment funds on Hand
Benefit & Trust. They started
following the Safe Landing
Glide Path in 2008.
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Safe: SLGP Risk Control 33
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You Cannot be Too Safe
at the Target Date
• There is no fiduciary upside to taking risk at the target date. Only downside. Class action
lawsuits are expected when the next 2008 occurs. “No misery” is far better than “misery
loves company.”
• There is a “risk zone” spanning the 5 years preceding and following retirement during which
lifestyles are at stake. Account balances are at their highest and a participant’s ability to
work longer &/or save more is very limited. You only get to do this once; no do-overs.
• Most participants withdraw their accounts at the target date, so “target death” (i.e.
“Through”) funds are absurd, and built for profit.
• Save and protect. The best individual course of action is to save enough and avoid capital
losses. Employers should educate employees about the importance of saving, and they
should report to employees on saving adequacy.
• Prior to the Pension Protection Act of 2006, default investments were cash and stable
value, which was too safe for young participants, but about right for old participants. Has
the Act changed the risk appetite of those nearing retirement? Surveys say no.
• The only relevant demographic is the financial unsophistication of defaulted participants.
34
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Diversified SLGP at Long Dates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
85% Equities
10
5
12
3
US Foreign
15% Bonds
18% Less in US stocks.
20% More in Diversifying Alternatives. More Foreign Bonds.
35
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Diversification
Risk Control
Low Fees
Sound Design
Add Sound Design to the Selection Criteria
= Patented Safe Landing Glide Path®
+
36
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Numbers indicated on the Capital Market Line are approximate ages. Allocations are established as a 2-asset combination: Reserve-Risky. We estimate the worst-case loss on the Risky Asset from the indicated age to the target date, and allocate to Reserves to compensate for that loss. If worst-case Risky loss occurs, the fairly safe return on Reserves should compensate.
Sound Design
Patent 8352349
+
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Add Performance, but note that the
history of TDFs is short -- only 5 years
3.4
2.1 2 1.9
1.3 1
0.3 0.1
2010 2020 2030 2040
5 Year Returns Ending 12/2012
SLGP Industry
SLGP is SMART Fund performance. Industry is represented by the S&P Target
Date Index
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A Few Concluding Remarks
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Agenda
• Growth: $1 Trillion, moving to $4 Trillion in 7
years
• Scandal: Designed for profit. Fiduciaries
breaching duty, believing in unsafe harbors.
• Solution: Universal objectives. Each dollar
should be at least $1 dollar at the target
date (floor), plus earn all you can (target).
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September, 2012
This says it all
It was ever thus in asset management: If you want to understand the future, look less at what plan sponsors are interested in buying and look more at what asset managers are interested in selling.
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The Future