Ability of a multi-year monitoring program to detect potential change in shoreline fish communities adjacent to Turkey Point

Nuclear Generating Station

Tara Dolan1,2, Joseph Serafy1,3 & Patrick Lynch2

1. University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science

2. National Marine Fisheries Service Office of Science & Technology

3. National Marine Fisheries Service Southeast Fisheries Science Center

American Fisheries Society Western DivisionEmerging Interactions of Energy Generation and Fisheries in the Americas

April 9th, 2014

Introduction • 11,000 acre property • 2nd largest power plant in Florida and 6th largest in

the United States (EIA 2012)

• 25 miles south of Miami• Borders parts of Biscayne National Park• Borders parts of Biscayne Bay Aquatic Preserve • Less than 20 miles east of Everglades National Park

FPL 2009

Brief history of Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station:

• Units 1 & 2 – April 1968• Units 3 & 4 completed by 1972• Open cycle cooling system used

from 1967-1973• July 1967- 1973: fish & benthic

community impacts due to thermal effluence repeatedly documented

– (FWPCA 1970, Nugent 1970, Zieman & Wood 1975, Thorhaug et al. 1974, etc.)

U.S. Department of Commerce, 1970

• 1973 – Closed-cycle cooling canal system begins operating.

Units 6 & 7 Expansion

• 2009- FPL submits COL application for Units 6 & 7• Estimate operational date: 2019• Est. total project cost $12.1-$17.8 billion

• 1117 MWt Westinghouse AP 1000• 6 Mechanical draft cooling towers• Primary source: 90 mgd of reclaimed municipal

wastewater• Secondary source: up to 125 mgd from radial collector

wells 40 ft below Biscayne Bay

FPL 2009

FPL 2009

Power Analysis of the Shoreline Fish Community Visual Assessment (SFCVA)

Power analysis:• Can improve both rigor and efficiency in environmental

monitoring• Is underutilized in environmental impact studies (Smith 1993, Underwood

& Chapman 2003)

• Can aid in preventing a Type II error (false negative) (Peterman

1990)

• Can inform a cost-benefit analysis for monitoring design (Fairweather 1991)

(Photo: E. D’allessandro, Univ. Miami)

Mangrove fish communities are useful indicators (& managed resources too!)

• Biscayne Bay mainland mangrove fringe is Essential Fish Habitat for several species of commercial & recreational importance (SAFMC 2009)

• Integrative indicators of environmental condition (Karr

1981, Harrison & Whitfield 2004, Browder et al. 2005, Nagelkerke & van Densen 2007, Pérez-Domínguez et al. 2012, IBEAM 2013)

• show rapid response time to physiochemical changes (Haake & Dean 1983, Lorenz 1999, Serafy et al. 1997, Lorenz & Serafy 2006)

• In Biscayne Bay, FL: taxonomic richness and total fish density have documented relationships with salinity (Ley et al. 1999, Lorenz 1999, Serafy

et al. 2003, 2005; Green et al. 2006, Lorenz & Serafy 2006)Gray snapper among the mangrove prop roots in Biscayne Bay. Photo by Jiangang Luo (University of Miami)

30 m

2 m

SFCVA Field Methods

Fishes• Species/Taxon• Number• Total length (Min, Mean, Max)

Habitat• Depth•Temperature•Salinity

Design• Biannual (wet & dry seasons)• Stratified random (shoreline segments) • Visual belt-transect fish surveys

Methods follow Serafy et al. 2003. Slide graphics credit: Joe Serafy

timeline• analyzed data from 2005-2012

Data Analysis

• Power analysis on a paired, two-sided Student’s t-statistic. – Taxonomic richness– Total fish density (LN

transformed)

• Power of two sided binomial test of proportions – Frequency of occurrence of

gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus)

– Frequency of occurrence of goldspotted killifish (Floridicthys carpio)

• Three study areas– SA1, SA2, SA3

• Season (Wet vs. Dry)• Time period: used data

collected between 2005 and 2012 to construct an ‘average year’ pooled across seasons.

Photo: Jiangang Luo

SA-1

• 531 surveys (2005-2012)• 264 dry season• 267 wet season

• 53 species• Largest study area in nested

subset design.

SA-2

• 307 surveys (2005-2012)• 151 dry season• 156 wet season

• 41 taxa

• Combined Operating License Application Rev. 2. (FPL 2010)

• “No adverse impacts” – Draft EFH Assessment

• Salt deposition to surrounding habitat has been studied at other thermoelectric plants (Miner & Warrick 1974, Shrecker et al. 1975, Talbot 1979, Lin et al. 1994, Brujis & Jenner 2012)

SA-3

• Smallest study area• 125 surveys (2005-2012)

• 62 dry season• 63 wet season

• 25 taxa• 16 families

• Radial collector wells are the secondary water supply system for the proposed cooling towers.

• 0.55 ppt average salinity difference modeled within predicted radius while wells are operating (FPL 2010)

• “Minimal impacts expected, but localized, temporary substantial adverse impacts could occur from increased salinity in nearshore areas near the Turkey Point site” – Draft EFH assessment

• Site Certification Application (Florida Power & Light Co. SCA, Chapter 5, Figure 5.1.3-1)

Taxonomic Richness:

• Can detect most subtle change in SA1

• More efficient to sample during the wet season

• Current sampling intensity appropriate for detecting medium effect sizes

• Increase # of samples for a focused study on SA3.

Study Area Season # of samples

we have

# needed to detect 33%

change

% change we can

detect now

SA-1Dry 33 24 28%

Wet 33 18 24%

SA-2Dry 20 18 31%

Wet 20 10 22%

SA-3Dry 8 11 40%

Wet 8 8 32%

SA1(entire property)n =33/season-yr

SA2(cooling towers)n= 20/season-yr

SA3(collector wells)n= 8/season-yr

X axis = effect size

Y ax

is =

num

ber o

f sam

ples

Total Fish Density:

Study area Season

# samples we have

n needed to detect 33%

change

% change we can

detect now

SA-1Dry 33 32 33%

Wet 33 20 25%

SA-2Dry 20 18 31%

Wet 20 10 22%

SA-3Dry 8 8 32%

Wet 8 9 36%

• Can detect most subtle change in SA1

• More efficient to sample during the wet season, except in SA3.

• Current sampling intensity appropriate for detecting medium effect sizes

• Increase # of samples for a focused study on SA3.

SA1(entire property)n =33/season-yr

SA2(cooling towers)n= 20/season-yr

SA3(collector wells)n= 8/season-yr

Occurrence of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus)

• Commercially and recreational important managed species for which EFH occurs near Turkey Point.

– Accounts for ~ 11% of total landings in Biscayne National Park (Harper et al. 2000, SAFMC

2010)

• Tertiary consumer (Stark 1970, Harrigan et al 1989)

• Indicator species for assessing water quality in BNP (Robles et al. 2005, from draft EFH Assessment)

• Most frequently encountered in the wet season (Serafy et al. 2003).

– Southern Biscayne Bay retains importance during dry season (Serafy et al. 2007)

• Demonstrated avoidance behavior of salinities > 30 and < 5 ppt.

• Selection behavior for 9-23 ppt. (Serrano et

al. 2010)

Photo: Jiangang Luo

Occurrence of gray snapper:

• Detect most subtle change in SA1• Most efficient during the wet season

when gray snapper are most frequently encountered.

• Sampling intensity must be increased in order to detect changes of smaller effect size.

• It is important to consider what levels of sampling are feasible.

Study area Season # samples

we have

n needed to detect 33%

change

% change we can

detect now

SA-1Dry 33 164 66%

Wet 33 64 45%

SA-2Dry 20 170 81%

Wet 20 52 52%

SA-3Dry 8 141 97%

Wet 8 24 70%

SA1(entire property)n =33/season-yr

SA2(cooling towers)n= 20/season-yr

SA3(collector wells)n= 8/season-yr

Occurrence of goldspotted killifish(Floridichthys carpio)

• Important forage species for predatory fish, wading birds and crocodilians (Schmidt 1989, Crabtree

et al. 1990, Ramo & Busto 1993, Villegas & Schmitter-Soto 2008, Hammerschlag et al. 2010)

• Most frequently encountered in the dry season (Serafy et al. 2007).

• Demonstrated avoidance behavior of salinities > 40 ppt.

• Selection behavior for 13-24 ppt. (Lorenz & Serafy 2006, McManus et al. 2014)

Occurrence of goldspotted killifish:

• Greatest efficiency of scale found in SA1 the largest sampling area.

• Sampling is most efficient during the dry season when killifish are most frequently encountered.

• Sampling intensity must be increased in order to detect changes of smaller effect size.

• It is important to consider what levels of sampling are feasible.

Study area Season # samples

we have

n needed to detect 33%

change

% change we can

detect now

SA-1Dry 33 92 53%

Wet 33 140 63%

SA-2Dry 20 69 59%

Wet 20 109 70%

SA-3Dry 8 55 79%

Wet 8 95 91%

SA3(collector wells)n= 8/season-yr

SA2(cooling towers)n= 20/season-yr

SA1(entire property)n =33/season-yr

Power of the SFCVA to detect a 33% change

Conclusions

Further investigations:• BACI design• One-sided test (if direction

of effect is known).• Adding additional years of

post-construction sampling.

• It’s up to managers & to decide relevant effect sizes!

• Spatial scale– Suited to detect potential community level

changes in larger study areas SA1 & SA2– Sampling intensity must be increased for a

focused study on SA3 (the radial collector wells).

• Choice of relevant ecological metrics– Better suited to community level metrics– Sampling intensity could be increased (within

reason) to detect species-level change. • Season

– Richness and density metrics more efficiently detected in the wet season.

– However, limiting sampling effort to the wet season may limit ability to detect trends in species which are more prevalent during the dry season, such as goldspotted killifish.

Acknowledgements

Co-authors: Joseph Serafy, Patrick LynchContributors: Brian Teare, Simeon Yurek, Lisa McManus, Mike South and many others

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Part 3: Environmental Report. Rev. 2.

Backup slides

Taxonomic Richness:

• Variance and average richness is greatest during the wet season (Serafy et al. 2003, 2005).

• In Biscayne Bay: greater at stable- vs. variable -salinity sites (Serafy et al. 1997).

Total Fish Density:

• Used as an indicator of habitat productivity (Keough & Quinn 1991)

• Correlated with changes in temperature and salinity (Ley et al. 1999, Lorenz

1999, Green et al. 2006, Lorenz & Serafy 2006)

• Variance and average richness is greatest during the wet season (Serafy et al.

2003, 2005).

• Greater temporal and spatial variability requires greater effort (Johnson 1998, Nagelkerke & van Denson 2007)

Recent Environmental Assessment Studies at TPNGS

• In 2008 Ecological Associates Inc. was contracted by FPL. – 26 sampling events– Otter trawl over seagrass habitat

200m-600m from shore. – One year of pre-construction

sampling.

• The Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) Assessment prepared in support of the Turkey Point Expansion Project (EAI 2004), – listed 24 federally-managed species

of fish that may potentially utilize habitats that occur in the vicinity of the Turkey Point Plant during some portion of their life cycle.

State and Federal Environmental Review

State

• Site Certification application– Florida Electrical Power Plant

Siting Act (F.S. 403.501-.518)

Federal

• Combined Operating License Application– Atomic Energy Act of 1954 (NUREG -

0980)

• National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (Sec. 102 [42 U.S.C. 4332])

– Environmental Assessment

Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) or,

Environmental Impact Statement

Flowchart of the combined licensing project. Source: www.NRC.gov

Monitoring continues in this area through the Integrated Biscayne Bay Ecological Assessment and Monitoring (IBBEAM) program.

• Comprehensive monitoring of mangrove-seagrass habitat, epifauna and water quality

• Expansion of this effort further south would fulfill multiple needs.

Taxonomic Richness:

Total Fish Density:

• Biscayne Bay was formerly estuarine (Smith 1896, Browder & Ogden 1999, Marshall et al. 2009)

• 1948 - Congress approves the Central and Southern Florida Project • 2000 – Congress approves Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan

• Restore timing, quantity, quality and distribution of freshwater

U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation Service 1938, via Pete Harlem, Florida International University

<-- Location of Unit 6 & 7 <-- Location of Unit 6 & 7

Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station: A History

• February 1973- cooling canal system begins operation

• 32 unlined shallow cooling canals • 15.6 km2 of surface area• Unit 5 a natural gas unit• FPL applied for extended power

uprate in 2010

U.S. Department of Commerce, 1984

• Degradation of benthic habitat in Card Sound (Thorhaug & Roessler 1977, Thorhaug et al. 1979)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1974

Segment Season Current sampling intensity

(n)

Taxonomic

Richness

Total Fish Density

Occurrence of

Goldspotted Killifish

Occurrence of Gray Snapper

SA1 Dry 33 28% 33% 53% 66%

Wet 33 24% 25% 63% 45%

SA2 Dry 20 31% 31% 59% 81%

Wet 20 22% 22% 70% 52%

SA3 Dry 8 40% 32% 79% 97%

Wet 8 32% 36% 91% 70%

Biscayne National Park Salinity Targets:

• “Measured salinities should not exceed 30 ppt.

• late dry season- early wet season : 15-25 ppt in the Western Bay Zone.

• Late wet season: – the Coastal Mangrove Zone should be

oligohaline (0-5 ppt)

– Western Bay Zone should average less than 20 ppt.

Salinity changes should be gradual (e.g. Serafy et al. 1997)