t3 trends, tactics & timing roÊ jilliÉm, b@de, mhda · 2020-06-12 · s&p500 exhaustion...

T3 Trends, Tactics & Timing08th June 2020 | Monthly Report | Major Macro Markets

Major Macro Markets (MMM) Chart BookResearch AdvisoryGlobal , Mul t i -Asset ,

Top-Down Blended Analys i s ; dr iven by Propr ie tary Cyc les

Ron Wil l iam, CFTe, MSTAStrateg is t , Educator

& PerformanceCoach

www.rwadvisory.com

London: + 852 66 888 536 Hong Kong + 44 (0) 7857 245 424

[email protected]

Ron William, CFTe

W: rwadvisory.comE: [email protected]

Co-authors of T3 Report

Robin Griffiths, FSTA

Prepared for T3 Subscribers Only – Not for Onward Distribution. Copyright © RW Advisory Limited. All RightsReserved

Executive SummaryResearch AdvisoryGlobal , Mul t i -Asset ,



& PerformanceCoach

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London: + 852 66 888 536 Hong Kong + 44 (0) 7857 245 424

[email protected]

q Gold is losing its short & medium term uptrend momentum, signalling apotential top pattern. Confirmation under $1660 will risk a $100 drop. Long-term investors will find this an attractive buy on the dip opportunity.

q USA, Germany & Japan all exhibit long-term outperformance over the Worldindex benchmark, based on their 200-day average. However, both USA &Germany are starting to stretch to extreme overbought conditions of +2standard deviations, notably USA approaching its record peak level.

q EUR/USD upside surprise, as part of the “risk-on” trade, after breaking from its2-month trading range, while activating all 3 trends. Stay alert as momentumsignals overbought conditions, under the 2020 peak level of 1.15.

q UK & India remain laggards, in terms of long-term performance, despite theirshort & medium-term gains. Oil serves as an extreme outlier, with its latestimpressive recovery still weighed by its long-term downtrend pressure.

Ranking Model; ST, MT & LT Trends

The Big Bond Bear

ArchiveReports: Media Interviews:Is the Big

Cycle About to Turn?

EducationalMaterial:

Trading Psychology

Behavioral Mistakes

Bullion Breakout

Equity market crash:What next?

EUR/USD Parity Risk

Black Gold, Black Swan: Is Negative the new normal?

Seeking Alpha in a VUCA World

Value of TA

1

2

3

4

% Trend Deviation

>5% 0-5% - 0-5% < -5%

GOLDUSA

GERMANY

JAPAN

WORLDEURUSDIRELAND

CHINACOPPER

GBPUSDEUROPECANADAFRANCE

UKINDIAOIL

AUSTRALIA

Ran

king

: LT

Stra

tegi

c Tr

end

(%20

0-da

y av

erag

e)

ASSET %20dMA %50dMA %200dMA Z-SCORE

1

T3 Contents

• The Story (p. 1-2)• Equities (p. 5-12)• Commodities (p.13-16)• Currencies (p. 17-20)

https://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/RWA-180418.pdf

https://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/RWA-180418.pdf

https://youtu.be/MKlDTKMH--c

https://youtu.be/oe7eIiXjTig

https://youtu.be/oe7eIiXjTig

http://www.halkinservices.co.uk/files/bullionbreakout.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv=KBf3I5opAmk&t=6s

https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv=fRt35kNYPTI&t=16s

https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv=6ryrH0OoQPw

https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv=wyNjeIsk-3U&t=15s

https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv=Hivw3it8QRA

Gold’s short-term $100 pullback risk

2

Research AdvisoryGlobal , Mul t i -Asset ,



& PerformanceCoach

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London: + 852 66 888 536 Hong Kong + 44 (0) 7857 245 424

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Fig 1. Gold daily chart. Source: RW Advisory, Optuma

The T3 monthly report is intended to be a way to keep in touch with big picture stories using technical analysis. We need to emphasizethat some of the levels and targeted are short-term. They may be in opposite direction to our long-term strategic view.

For example we like gold long-term, but in the short-term it has hit resistance in dollar terms. Fig 1 highlights Gold’s risk of a $100pullback within a long-term uptrend, with key support at 1660-1650 (38.2%-33% Fib), then 1610 (50% Fib) & 1570-1560 (61.8%-66%Fib). The move will likely be pressured by further rise in S&P500 and general risk appetite.

S&P500 Exhaustion signals into 3116-3137.

2




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Fig 2. S&P500 daily chart. Source: RW Advisory, Optuma

The headline story for now that we should get into our heads, is that the global economy has had a big hit. It is struggling and the healthcrisis still looms.

Significant damage is done and the economic effect is like a depression. Paradoxically, a growing majority of stock markets are exhibitingimpressive recoveries, with some pushing above their 200-day moving averages. Fig 2. highlights S&P500’s potential exhaustion signalinto 3116-3137. While gains hold under their 2020 peak levels, the probability remains for this to be a bear-market rally.

The absolute minimum effect in the economy is a drop at least twice as bad as took place in 2008. In reality it is much more like whatoccurred between 1929 and 1933. Fig 3 highlights what happened then and the likely bear market roadmap that could be followed.

Echoes from 1929 Wall Street Crash

3




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Fig 3. 1929 Wall Street crash. Source: RW Advisory, Optuma

Fig 4. Ranking model. Source: RW Advisory, Optuma

Bear market corrections are a 3-staged pattern and not an event.2020 outperformed the early stage of 1929 crash and is nowexaggerating on the upside. This rally has fooled many into thinkingwe can rush back into the good old days and go boom again. We donot believe this is so, and the charts strongly argue against it.

Humans do not have a vaccine for the cold or normal flu. No suchmedicine has ever arrived in quick time. A year would be a recordbreaking performance. It is reasonable that we may never have aviable vaccine. We all need to learn to live with the problem. Thedamage has already been done. Millions of people are unemployedand will not get their old jobs back. Social unrest is also now a clearand present danger.

The debt mountain is huge and has suddenly become even bigger.This will be a blanket on economic growth. The model that has beenpracticed by Japan is now being followed in the West. Our globalranking model of all types of assets highlights USA, Germany &Japan outperforming in terms of their long-term 200-average.Despite the latest impressive recovery, equity markets remain toorisky. Gold, Gilts and Cash are relatively better holdings in this VUCA(Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous) environment.

During the rest of the bear period in the 1930s there were many rallies.Nine in total. One was up 50% and several others up 30%. None ofthese was a new bull market. In bear markets volatility rises. Thelargest rises and falls both occur in bear periods. We dont want to rushin to trade these rallies. They are selling chances.

Gilts are already on a very low yield basis however the trend istowards negative yields. The forecast is that rates will stay low andeven drift off more. Owning them will preserve capital and keep ouroptions open for much later buying opportunities elsewhere.

Technical Setups, Trend Filters & Dynamic Risk Levels

5

S&P500 3137 RISK 2727 GOLD 1660 RISK: 1766 EURUSD 1.1500 RISK: 1.1020

DAX 13000 RISK: 12270 OIL 36.35 RISK: 19.50 GBPUSD 1.3000 RISK: 1.2150

Fig 5. Gann Swing Chart (DAILY), with Parabolic Risk Filters and Dynamic Trend Regression.




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3000

2727

1766

1.1020

13400

11220

-40.00 1.1960

21922347

1.0879

3394

1662

1612

8230

1.1260

36.35

1.277019.50

10210

1.215010.10

EQU

ITIE

S

CO

MM

OD

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S

FOR

EX

29.00

DYNAMIC TREND REGRESSION

1.1496

12273

DYNAMIC TREND

REGRESSION

3137

1.07271.0636

3137

Major Macro Markets

Equities

6




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ROADMAP OUTLOOK

World: Bulls make last stand at 353-355.

7Fig 6. FTSE World daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: 8, 20, 50 & 200 daily averages.




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Short & medium-termoutlook remains positive,but is overbought.

Overhead resistance canbe found at 355-353 (76.8-78.6% Fib) and 373 (valuelevel), with risk of therecord peak levels at 383.

Support at 332-339 (66-61.8% Fib & 50-dayaverage). Only below herewill trigger correctivesetbacks into 316 (50%Fib).

Risk level: Below 332 isnegative for 316 & 300.

Relative performance:USA leads, with Asiarangebound and Europedeveloping a negativetrend.

USA EUROPE ASIA

ACTIVE TACTICAL STRATEGIC

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200-day average

TIME FACTOR

MOMENTUM INDICATORS

(ST/MT/LT)

TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

ST TRENDSIGNAL(14 April)

373

348

316

353-355(76.8-78.6%)

332-339(66-61.8%)

316(50%)

383(Record Peak)

CRASH CYCLE(Mid-Feb-late March)

ROADMAP OUTLOOK

USA: Exhaustion signals into 3116-3137.

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Fig 7. S&P500 daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: 8, 20, 50 & 200 daily averages.




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TIME FACTOR

3080

PRICE VACUUM

200-day average


MOMENTUM INDICATORS

(ST/MT/LT) TACTICAL

STRATEGIC



2988

2800


3116-3137(76.8-76.8%)

3394(Record Peak)

Short & medium-termoutlook remains positive,but is overbought.

Failure to maintain gainsabove 3116-3137 (76.8-78.6% Fib) will risk a sharpcorrection back under 3080(value level) & the all-important psychologicallevel at 3000, then 2800.

This would be in-line withour bear-market roadmapof a 3-stage process. Fall,rally & rest of fall.

See media interview link forfurther details on our bigpicture cycle outlook.

Risk level: Below 3080 isnegative for 2800.

https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv=N1D1LQPZiL0

ROADMAP OUTLOOK

UK: Make-or-break price zone; 6634-6752 & 200-day ave.

9Fig 8. FTSE100 daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.




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TIME FACTOR

MOMENTUM INDICATORS

(ST/MT/LT)

TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

200-day average



PRICE VACUUM

7046-7100(76.8-76.8%)

Short & medium-termoutlook remains positive,after extending above its50% quantum price level at6300.

The next importantresistance zone is 6634-6752 (61.8%-66% Fib),near the long-term falling200-day average at 6852.

This serves as a technicalmake-or-break area.Failure here will unlockcorrective weakness backinto 6000 and 5783.


6765

6313

5783

6634-6752(66-61.8%)

6300 (50%)

7040


ROADMAP OUTLOOK

Germany: Rally challenges key price zone (12524-12620)

10Fig 9. DAX daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.




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London: + 852 66 888 536 Hong Kong + 44 (0) 7857 245 424

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TIME FACTOR

MOMENTUM INDICATORS

(ST/MT/LT)

TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

200-day average



12524-12620(76.8-76.8%)

11704-11910(66-61.8%)

11954

12970

10675

Short & medium-termoutlook remains positive,while challenging key pricezone (12524-12620).

This serves as a technicalmake-or-break area.Further gains above thisarea extend into finalresistance at 12970, ontothe old peak level of 13789.

Failure under 12524 willunlock corrective weaknessback into 11954 (valuelevel) & 11704-11910 (66-61.8% Fib).



13789(Record Peak)

PRICE VACUUM

Japan: Overbought amidst price zone (22330-22475).

11Fig 10. Nikkei daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.




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ROADMAP OUTLOOK

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TIME FACTOR

MOMENTUM INDICATORS

(ST/MT/LT)

TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

200-day average

ST TRENDSIGNAL

(08 March)

ACTIVE TACTICAL STRATEGICPRICE VACUUM

23995/24036(Peak levels)


Short & medium-termoutlook remains positive,but is becomingoverbought amidst keyprice zone (22330-22475).

This serves as a technicalmake-or-break area.Further gains above herewill extend into finalresistance at 23550, thenonto peak levels of 23995-24036.

Failure under 22330 willunlock sharp correctiveweakness back into 21160-21470 (66-61.8% Fib) &21100 (value level).


22330-22475(76.8-76.8%)

19230

21100PRICE VACUUM

23550

21160-21470(66-61.8%)

ROADMAP OUTLOOK

India: Failing under April peak, near 50% retrace at 33950.

12Fig 11. India daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.




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Prob

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TIME FACTOR

MOMENTUM INDICATORS(ST/MT/LT)

TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

200-day average

ST TRENDSIGNALS

(01 June & 15 April)


PRICE VACUUM

31714

38610

36000-36650(66-61.8%)

33950 (50%)


Short & medium-termoutlook remains positive,but losing momentum,failing under the April peak,near 50% retrace at 33950.

A break under 33254 (20-day average) will unlock asharp correction into 31714(value zone) and 31000(50-day average).

Only a sustained closeabove 33950 will signal anextension higher into nextresistance zone 36000-36650, near 200-dayaverage at 37180.


ROADMAP OUTLOOK

China: Failing into overhead resistance, near 2917-2948.

13Fig 12. Shanghai Composite daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.




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TIME FACTOR



TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

200-day average

ST TRENDSIGNAL

(02 JUNE & 09 April)



Short & medium-termoutlook remains positive,but losing momentum,failing into overheadresistance, near 2917-2938(11 May peak, 200-dayaverage & 66% retrace).

A break under 2879 (20-day average) will triggersharp setbacks into 2820(value level).

Only a sustained closeabove 2970 will signal anextension of the recoveryinto the all-importantpsychological level at 3000,then 3023-3030 (76.8-78.6% Fib).


3023-3030(78.6-76.8%)

2948-2970(66-61.8%)

2945

2880

2820

Commodities

14




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ROADMAP OUTLOOK

Copper:

15Fig 13. Copper daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.




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TIME FACTOR



TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

200-day average

BULLSIGNAL(13 April)


PRICE VACUUM

Short & medium-termoutlook remains positive,but hitting overheadresistance, near 2.55-2.57(66-61.8% retrace) & valuelevel.

Failure under here, then2.42 will trigger sharpsetbacks into 2.34 (valuelevel).

Only a sustained closeabove 2.57 will signal anextension of the recoveryinto 2.68-2.69 (76.8-78.6%Fib).

Risk level: Below 2.42 isnegative for 2.34.

2.68-2.69(78.6-76.8%)

2.55-2.57(66-61.8%)

2.56

2.43

PRICE VACUUM

2.34

ROADMAP OUTLOOK

Gold: $100 short-term pullback risk.

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1715

Fig 13. Gold daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.




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Short-term outlook isturning negative, aftercompleting a 2-month toppattern and breakingunder 1700.

Expect a $100 short-termpullback, into 1660-1650(33-38.2% Fib), then1610 (50% Fib), with riskinto 1570-1560 (61.8-66% Fib).

LT strategic trendremains positive, and soinvestors may consider tobuy dips.

Risk level: A sustainedweekly close above 1750will resume the previousuptrend towards 1800and the record peak of1910.

1645


PRICE VACUUM

1 2 3CHECK MATEREVERSAL

1610

TIME FACTOR


TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

200-day averageBULLSIGNAL(19 MAR)


1660-1650(38.2-33%)

1610 (50%)

1570-1560(61.8-66%)

ROADMAP OUTLOOK

Oil: V-shape recovery on shaky ground. Risk into $10.

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Fig 14. Oil daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.




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ST outlook remainspositive, but on shakyground, as the v-shapedrecovery losesmomentum into keyresistance levels.

Futures pricing is alsotriggering a silentcontagion contango,pressuring for sub-$10.

Our LONG position is inprofit by $18, followingthe trend signal (14thJan). Trailing stop hasbeen further tightened.

LT strategic trendremains negative,favoring a new normalrange & ongoingasymmetric risk. Seemedia link for more info.

Risk level: Below $23.60will be negative for $10 &-$3.4.


TIME FACTOR

$29.30 (66%)

$40.40-42.60(76.8 & 78.6%)

16.00


TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

200-day average

BULLSIGNAL(19 MAR)


PRICE VACUUM

Currencies

18




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ROADMAP OUTLOOK

EUR/USD: Overbought signal, mean-reversion risk into 1.10.

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Fig 15. EUR/USD daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.

ST TRENDSIGNAL(20 May)




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ST outlook remainspositive, but veryoverbought after multipleconsecutive up sessions,

The rally is also pressuredby overhead resistance at1.1290-1.1310 (valuelevel, dynamic trend &76.8% Fib).

Expect price setbacksback into 1.1230/40(March 27 peak) & 1.1010(old 2-month range).

LT view remains bearishfor 1.0350 & parity. Seemedia link for more info.

Risk level: Below 1.1180will unlock mean-reversionback to 1.0875.

1.0875


TIME FACTOR

1.1090

SUPPT ZONE: 1.0767-1.0727

2-MONTHRANGE

1.1230/4027 March peak

MOMENTUM INDICATORS

(ST/MT/LT)

TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

200-day average



1.1500(2020 HI)

1.0640(2020 LOW)

8 BIGFIGURESWING

1.12901.1290-1.1310(76.8 & 78.6%)

https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv=fRt35kNYPTI&t=11s

ROADMAP OUTLOOK

GBP/USD: Range breakout targets 1.3000.

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1.3000

Fig 16. GBP/USD daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.

ST TREND SIGNAL(12 MAY)




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ST outlook remainspositive, whilechallenging its 2-monthrange at 1.2600/10.

A sustained close abovehere will trigger gains intopsychological level at1.30

Immediate support at1.2400 and 1.2050/60(50% retrace).

Risk level: Above 1.2470will re-build strongermomentum into 1.3000.


1.2140

TACTICAL

STRATEGIC

PRICE VACUUM

1.2600/10

TIME FACTOR


1.1910

200-day average


PRICE VACUUM

ROADMAP OUTLOOK

USD/JPY:

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Fig 17. USD/JPY daily candlestick chart. Trend-Filters: (ST) 8, 20, (MT) 50 & (LT) 200 daily averages.

ST TRENDSIGNAL(22 May)




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ST outlook remainspositive, but weighed byoverhead resistance at109.90 (value level &dynamic trend).

Expect price setbacksback into 108.40 (200-dayaverage), then 107.60(value zone). Only a breakhere will risk next supportat 106.00 (April low).

Risk level: Below 108.40will unlock setbacks backinto 107.60 & 106.00.

107.60



105.30106.00 (April low)

TACTICAL

TIME FACTOR


STRATEGIC

200-day average


109.90 109.70-1.09.90(76.8 & 78.6%)

No information published constitutes a solicitation, or offer, orrecommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument,to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kindwhatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided byRW Advisory (RWA) for personal use and for informational purposesonly and are subject to change without notice.

RW Advisory (RWA) makes no representations (either expressed orimplied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate,complete or up to date.

In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax orother advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions bemade solely based on the content.

All opinion is based upon sources that RW Advisory (RWA) believesto be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case.Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content isaccurate and complete, RW Advisory (RWA) makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability

RW Advisory (RWA) disclaims, without limitation forany loss or damage of any kind, including any director consequential damages.

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Disclaimer & Disclosures

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t3 trends, tactics & timing roÊ jilliÉm, b@de, mhda · 2020-06-12 · s&p500 exhaustion...

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