t materials and the environment part 3 – global consumption patterns: uneven but changing (most...
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Materials and the Environmentt
Part 3 – Global Consumption Patterns: Uneven but
Changing
(Most recent update April 1, 2013)
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The most economically developed nations are also the highest
consuming nations.
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As a result, only a few nations consume by far the greatest
share of the world’s raw materials.
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Selected Raw Material Consumption in the United States and Western Europe
Source: UNEP. 2004. Vital Waste Graphics. GRID Arendal
(http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/waste/page/2857.aspx)
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Consumption of Selected Raw Materials Compared to Global
Population
Consumption of Selected Raw Materials Compared to Global
Population
Source: UNEP. 2004. Vital Waste Graphics. GRID Arendal (http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/waste/page/2857.aspx)
France, Germany, Japan, UK, & United States (5 countries)Rest of World (188 countries)
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As shown in the next several graphics, developing nations are beginning to consume a greater share of the world’s resources as their economies
expand.
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% of world consumption
Steel
Aluminum
Copper
% of world population
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Developed Countries*
12.1
11.3
10.7
46.8
51.3
26.6
68.4
63.9
44.8
66.9
58.1
42.6
Developing Countries
87.9
88.7
89.3
53.2
48.7
73.4
31.6
36.1
55.2
33.1
41.9
57.4
% of world consumption
Lead Zinc Nickel Industrial Wood
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Developed Countries
69.6
63.3
41.8
60.9
55.3
36.4
70.9
69.1
58.8
66.0
62.1
52.6
Developing Countries
30.4
36.7
58.2
39.1
44.7
63.6
29.1
29.9
41.2
34.0
37.9
47.4
% of world consumption
Cement Petroleum
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Developed Countries
34.6
25.3
11.3
56.8
51.4
49.0
* Developed countries include the
United States, Canada, EU-15 nations, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and
South Korea.Developing Countries
65.4
74.7
88.7
43.2
48.6
51.0
Note that the developed countries, that in 2010 comprised 10.7% of world population, consumed a much greater percentage of critical resources.
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0 20 40 60 80 100
Petroleum
Wood
Cement
Nickel
Zinc
Lead
Copper
Aluminum
Steel
2010
2000
1990
Percent of Global Consumption of Selected Materials by Developed
Nations*
* Developed nations included in consumption statistics are the United States, Canada, EU-15 nations, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and S.
Korea.
Percent of world population, 2010 (10.7%)
Note that the portion of critical materials
consumed by developed nations is decreasing as developing nations make
economic gains.
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0 20 40 60 80 100
Petroleum
Cement
Wood…
Nickel
Zinc
Lead
Copper
Aluminum
Steel
2010
2000
1990
1980
Percent of Global Consumption of Selected Materials by the United
States
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (2013); U.S. Dept. of Energy, EIA (2013).
Percent of world population, 2010 (4.5%)
2010 consumption in the U.S. was very much affected by the great recession. Will rebound.
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The shift in global consumption patterns is led by
China, but is by no means limited to developments in
China alone.
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China’s Gross Domestic Product
(Expressed in Current $US)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Bil
lio
ns
of
Cu
rren
t U
.S.
Do
llar
s
Source: World Bank, 2013.
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Material 1990 2000 2010
Steel 8.9 19.7 43.4
Aluminum 5.4 12.8 40.1
Copper 4.9 13.0 39.2
Nickel 4.2 6.6 29.3
Lead 7.4 9.0 44.1
Zinc 8.7 15.0 42.5
Cement 16.8 35.2 56.0
Wood (industrial wood)
7.1 14.7 16.4
Petroleum 3.6 6.3 11.1
China Consumption of Critical Materials 1990-2010
(percent of world consumption)
China Consumption of Critical Materials 1990-2010
(percent of world consumption)
Sources: USGS, IISI, OECD, USDOE-EIA (2013)
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Raw material consumption patterns will continue to shift as nations now classified as
developing become increasingly economically
developed.
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GDP* in the U.S. vs. Other GDP* in the U.S. vs. Other Economies, 2005Economies, 2005
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14U.S.JapanGermanyChinaUKFranceItalyMexicoBrazilIndiaRussia
Source: International Monetary Fund (2006)
Tri
llio
n U
S $
* GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within a nation’s borders. Values expressed in purchasing power parity.
Chin
a
Ind
ia
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GDP in the U.S. vs. Other GDP in the U.S. vs. Other Economies, 2010Economies, 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16U.S.JapanGermanyChinaUKFranceItalyMexicoBrazilIndiaRussia
Source: International Monetary Fund (2013)
Tri
llio
n U
S $
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Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Other Economies, 2030Other Economies, 2030
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35U.S.JapanGermanyChinaUKFranceItalyMexicoBrazilIndiaRussia
Source: PWC Macroeconomics, UK (2011)
Tri
llio
n U
S $
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Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Other Economies, 2050Other Economies, 2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60U.S.JapanGermanyChinaUKFranceItalyMexicoBrazilIndiaRussia
Source: PWC Macroeconomics, UK (2011)
Tri
llio
n U
S $
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This translates to increasing consumption of both goods and raw materials in countries that
have long been characterized by low per-capita consumption and
large populations.
Fierce competition for the world’s raw materials is certain,
and already gaining momentum.
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So, in this environment, how is the U.S. positioned for the
future?
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The U.S. is a net importer of most categories of raw materials
used to support our economy and lifestyle.
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The U.S. is a net importer of most categories of raw materials
used to support our economy and lifestyle.
• Most metals• Portland and masonry cement• Petroleum (the basis for most
plastics)• Wood and wood products
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In the slides that follow, net import dependence is shown.
Principal suppliers are also listed in order of importance, with the most important supplier listed first (to the left), the next most important to the right of that,
and so on.
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Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/
c/ d/
Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Niobium 100 Brazil, Canada, Germany, RussiaManganese 100 S. Africa, Gabon, China, AustraliaGraphite 100 China, Mexico, Canada, BrazilStrontium 100 Mexico, GermanyBauxite/Alumina 100 Jamaica, Brazil, Guinea, AustraliaFluorspar 100 Mexico, China, S. Africa, MongoliaYttrium 100 China, Japan, France, UKThallium 100 Russia, Germany, KazakhstanRubidium 100 CanadaAsbestos 100 Canada, ZimbabweQuartz (crystal) 100 China, Japan, RussiaThorium 100 France, India, Canada, UKTantalum 100 China, Germany, Kazakhstan, Australia
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Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/
dd//
Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Arsenic (trioxide) 100 Morocco, China, BelgiumIndium 100 China, Canada, Belgium, JapanRare earth metals 100 China, France, Estonia, JapanCesium 100 CanadaMica (natural) 100 China, Brazil, Belgium, IndiaIodine 99 Chile, JapanGallium 99 Germany, Canada, UK, ChinaGemstones 98 Israel, India, Belgium, S. Africa Germanium 90 China, Belgium, Russia, GermanyBismuth 89 China, Belgium, UKDiamond (dust, grit) 89 China, Ireland, S. Korea, RussiaPlatinum Group 88 Germany, S. Africa, UK, CanadaAntimony 87 China, Mexico, Belgium
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Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/
b/ c/ d/
Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Rhenium 87 Chile, Netherlands, GermanyStone (dimension) 85 Brazil, China, Italy, TurkeyPotash 83 Canada, Belarus, RussiaLithium 80+ Argentina, Chile, ChinaVanadium 80 S. Korea, Canada, Austria, Czech Rep.Barium (Barite) 78 China, IndiaSilicon carbide 76 China, Brazil, Vietnam, NorwayTin 76 Peru, Bolivia, Indonesia, ChinaCobalt 75 China, Norway, Russia, CanadaSilver 75 Mexico, Canada, Peru, ChileZinc 73 Canada, Peru, Mexico, IrelandTitanium (sponge) 69 Kazakhstan, Japan, China, RussiaTitanium concentrates 68 S. Africa, Australia, Canada, Mzambique
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Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/
d/
Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Peat 63 CanadaChromium 60 S. Africa, Kazakhstan, Russia, ChinaPalladium 56 Russia, S. Africa, UK, NorwayMagnesium Cpds 53 China, Canada, Brazil, AustriaNickel 47 Canada, Russia, Australia, NorwayFerrosilicon 42 China, Russia, Venezuela, CanadaNitrogen (fixed) 41 Trinidad/Tobago, Russia, Canada, UkrainePetroleum 40 Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia,
Iraq, Nigeria, MexicoGarnet (industrial) 39 India, Australia, China, CanadaGold 36 Mexico, Canada, Colombia, PeruTungsten 36 China, Bolivia, Canada, GermanyMagnesium Metal 35 Israel, China, Canada
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Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/
c/ d/
Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Copper 35 Chile, Canada, Peru, MexicoPerlite 27 GreeceLumber (softwood) 25 Canada, Chile, Sweden, GermanySulfur 24 Canada, Mexico, VenezuelaSalt 22 Canada, Chile, Mexico, The BahamasBeryllium 21 Russia, Kazakhstan, Japan Mica (scrap/flake) 20 Canada, China, IndiaVermiculite 20 China, S. Africa, Australia, BrazilGypsum 13 Canada, Mexico, SpainPhosphate rock 13 Morocco, PeruAluminum 13 Canada, Russia, China, MexicoIron and steel 9 Canada, EU, China, MexicoCement (Portland/msry) 6 Canada, China, S. Korea, MexicoPumice 5 Greece, Mexico, Iceland, Montserrat
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Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/
d/
Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Diamond (industrial) 3 Botswana, S. Africa, Russia, NambiaLime 1 Canada, MexicoStone (crushed) 1 Canada, Mexico, The Bahamas
a/ U.S. Geological Survey. 2013. Mineral Commodity Summaries - 2012.
b/ Principal foreign sources arranged by most important supplier to the left, next most important to the right of that, and so on.
c/ Petroleum data from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 2013 (February). d/ Data for construction lumber from RISI, Random Lengths, 2012, 2013.
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The United States is also a net importer of durable and non-durable goods of all kinds.
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Europe and Japan are in much the same situation.
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The U.S. is a massive net importer partly because many
economically accessible resources lie outside U.S.
borders . . .
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. . . but also because environmental regulations and policies have created barriers to domestic production and increased associated costs.
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The net result is a shift of environmental impacts linked
to our consumption to locations outside of the U.S.
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Beyond ethical questions, there is a developing problem.
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While supplies of most raw materials are unlikely to
physically run out, there are growing concerns about
availability.
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In a 2011 global survey of 69 leading companies, resource
scarcity was identified as a major concern in all industries represented.
Source: European Technology Platform on Sustainable Mineral Resources. 2012. (http://eurogeosurveys.org/assets/ETPSMR/SF2012/1.The%20contribution%20of
%20ETP%20SMR%20-%20Henryk%20Karas.pdf)
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The European Environment Agency described concerns this
way:
“The world's stocks of natural resources are already decreasing. A larger and
richer global population with increasing consumption needs will make bigger
demands for many things including food, water and energy. In the future, rising
demand and falling supply could intensify global competition for
resources . . .
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The European Environment Agency described concerns this
way:
. . . Growing long-term scarcity of minerals and metals may induce us to
turn to sources hitherto deemed uneconomic. Expanding mining has
several environmental effects, including changing landscapes, polluting water and generating waste. Poorer quality
mineral reserves may mean that exploiting such sources is less energy
efficient.”Source: European Environment Agency. 2011. (http://www.eea.europa.eu/signals/signals-2011/earth-2050-global-megatrends/
intensified-global-competition-for-decreasing)
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Summary• Per capita consumption of raw materials is
far higher in the most economically developed countries than in countries that are not as economically advanced.
• The global economy is changing rapidly, with many traditionally low-income countries now experiencing rapid economic growth.
• Economic expansion is affecting regions of the world characterized by very large populations.
• Consumption of raw materials of all kinds is increasing very rapidly.
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Summary
• Several high consuming countries, including the United States, Japan, and European countries, are massive net importers of raw materials.
• While the world is unlikely to literally run out of most raw materials, there are questions about future availability in a world of increasing competition for those resources.
• As global competition for raw materials increases, countries may have to form new alliances and relationships.
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Summary• Appropriate technology development
relative to resource development, use, and recycling will be essential.
• Reconsideration of domestic policies, to potentially allow greater access to domestic resources, will likely be needed.
• Environmental and social concerns will increase as raw material consumption rises.