systems thinking for national infrastructure...
TRANSCRIPT
Beckford Consulting © 2011
Systems Thinking for National Infrastructure Planning
John BeckfordFor
Centre for Systems Studies, The University of Hull6th February 2013
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Introduction
• “A Network of Networks”• Initial Discovery• Understanding Systemic Risks and Opportunities• Cybernetics in Practice• Systems Engineering or Systemic Engineering?
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Acknowledgement
• Professor Brian Collins– Chair Centre for Engineering Policy, UCL– Ex CSA to BIS (BERR) and DfT
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Outputs
• An Overview of Systemic Interdependencies of the UK National Infrastructure (with AEA)• Infrastructure Resilience Matters, April 2010
– Brian Collins, CSA, BIS• ICT Climate Risk(with AEA):
– Adaptation and Climate Change Project, DEFRA, April 2010• Infrastructure as Economic Eco‐System
– Halcrow, September 2010• Understanding the ‘Systems of Infrastructure’
– Ordnance Survey Utilities Conference, September 2010• Systemic Responses for Managing Adaptation and Climate Change in the Rail Industry
– TRACCA Project, Network Rail, December 2010• Infrastructure Resilience: A Systemic Perspective
– Meteorological Office, Exeter, January 2011• International Engagement on Critical Infrastructure Dependencies,
– Deputy Minister, Public Safety, Canada, Ottawa, March 2011• Systemic Risk and Opportunities, Lead Researcher
– Engineering and Interdependency Expert Group, HM Treasury• A KISS for SMART Infrastructure
– Ordnance Survey Utilities Conference, Stratford, October 2011 • Surfing the Waves,
– Systems Centre, University of Bristol April 2012• National Consistency and Local Autonomy: A shared model for information
– Ordnance Survey, Critical National Infrastructure Seminar, June 2012
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Process
• Good Engineering Practice– ‘When you don’t know what else to do, make a list’ (Tom Peters, 1996)
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• Good Engineering Practice– ‘When you don’t know what else to do, make a list’ (Tom Peters, 1996)
• Three key areas• Policy & Standards• Infrastructure• Demand
• Ordered by area, mapped each one
Process
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Policy & Standards
Infrastructure
Demand
Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints
Supply & Delivery Systems, Owners, Business Systems
Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users
The Levels
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Policy & Standards
Infrastructure
Demand
Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints
Supply & Delivery Systems, Owners, Business Systems
Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users
EnvironmentalChange
UK Government
WAG
EU Gov
Economy
Safety
ScottishParliament
DfT DECC
EfficiencyCost
Corporatelobbying Global
business
CompetitionPolicy
Delivery/ownership
Power/energy/Telecomms co.s
DefraORR
BERR
HA
LAs
RDAs
TransportScotland
Airportoperators
TOCs
NetworkRail
HS 1/HS 2
ROSCOsCyclingEngland
RDAs Port owners
NI Assembly
PTEs
TfL
Timetabling/scheduling
Spatial usage patterns
Legacyinfrastructure
Land usepatterns
Airspaceusage
Security
Skills Energysources
Technology
Transportsubstitution
Human behaviour
Navigation
CommunitiesShippingchannels
AccessibilityInternational
bodiesIMO ICAO
ISO
Policy targets/framing Demographics
Logisticspolicy
Consumers
DCLGIPC/
Planning Inspectorate
Policy and Standards L1
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Policy & Standards
Demand
Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints
Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users
Cycling
Cycleways
Supporting Infrastructure
Light Rail
Track / Road
Vehicles
Intersections
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Terminals
Heavy Rail
Track
Vehicles
Intersections
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Terminals
Underground
Vehicles
Track/ Tunnels/
Intersections
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Terminals Road Transport
Road
Vehicles
Intersections
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Terminals
Aviation
Airspace
Vehicles
Airport
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
PeripheralInfrastructure
Shipping
Vehicles
Shipping lanes /channels
Support systems
Energy Infrastructure
Port PeripheralInfrastructure
Walking
Walkways
Pipelines
Goods/wastePipelines
Terminals
Off road Infrastructure
TransportInfrastructure L2‐3
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Policy & Standards
Demand
Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints
Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users
Road
Roads
Motorways
Trunk roads
Local roads
Energy Systems
Refuelling stations
Oil refinieries
Electricity supply infrastructure
Hydrogen supplyinfrastructure
Support Systems
Electrical systems
Telecommunications
Lighting
Vehicles
Cars
2 wheelers
Bicycles
Buses & coaches
Terminals
Coach stations
Bus stations
Freight distribution centres
Intersections
Tunnels
Bridges
Level crossings
Vans
Junctions (incl. Roundabouts)
Traffic control & signage
Enforcement systems
Other
Lorries
Off road
Car / lorry parks
Bus depots
Test tracks
Private land / drives
InfrastructureLevels 2‐3
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Policy & Standards
Demand
Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints
Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users
Heavy Rail
Track
26 Strategic routes
High Speed 1 & 2
Channel tunnel
Heritage lines
Energy Systems
Substations
3rd rail DC
Overhead power lines
Refuelling depots
Support Systems
Signalling
Telecommunications
Lighting
Vehicles
Rolling stock
Locomotives
DMUS & EMUS
Coaching stock
Terminals
Stations
Freight terminals
Rolling stock depots
Intersections
Tunnels
Bridges
Level crossings
Wagons
Heavy Rail Infrastructure L2‐3
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Policy & Standards
Infrastructure
Demand
Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints
Supply & Delivery Systems, Owners, Business Systems
Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users
Outsourcers
CorporateNetworks
PFI
Receivers
Education
DomesticConsumers
LocalGov’t
Modems Routers
Health
LibrariesWireless
Defence
Museums
ArchivesPolicing &Security
Databases Applications Presentation
Wired
Resilience
Demand
• Transport by type and dependency• Energy by type and dependency• Waste by type and dependency• ICT by type and dependency• Water by type and dependency
And so on
• Understanding– It has too many elements and interactions for a ‘flat’ diagram to accommodate
– The modelling needs to be handled recursively– Need to separate the gross effects as they work across levels from the impact of local interactions
– Systemic relationships with emergent properties separated from the transactional activities
– Single view is not enough– Recursive modelling in two planes
Realisation
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Orthogonal Slices
Policy
Infrastructure
Demand
Vertical Plane
HorizontalPlanes
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Orthogonal Slices
• Reveals potential complexity of the whole• Provides a base for thinking about modelling
– What is ‘useful’ for decision making?– What is inside the ‘system of interest’?– What are the limits of influence?– What is the ‘purpose of the system’?– What is the ‘purpose’ for which we are modelling?– What is a meaningful simplification?
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Structured Diagram
Development
Control & Regulation
Policy
Operations
Corporate& SocialEnvironment
ProblematicFutureEnvironment
?
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Peak Demand
Lack ofDiversity
ClimateChange
CoastalAssets
DemandConstraints
Seasonality
NaturalEvents
Ownership
PhaseTransitions
PeakPerturbations
PublicConfidence
DemandManagement
DisparateCapital &OwnershipModels
Return onCapital
SoftwareCapability
HumanCapital
KeySkills
Availability –materials, skills,
power
Scheduling& Logistics
Nexus
Nexus highlights the interactionof six potential points of failure
InformationAccuracy
Capital flight
Risks and Points of failure
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Spatial PlanningData Infrastructure
DampingPeaks
Prediction
DisasterPrevention
Alignment of Contract Cycles
FiscalEfficiency
EconomicEfficiency
Investment inRenewables
Transport
Energy
ICT
Water
Waste
JobCreation
CriticalSkills
Better Useof Data
Inter‐disciplinary(Systems)Skills
RapidCapacity Growth
LowerCosts
Use ofSubsidy
EnhanceNetworks
Availability Of capital
Resilience and Sustainability
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ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Energy Supply
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Think Piece
“The effects of serious NI failures on business and public confidence are likely to be far reaching and long‐lasting, with inevitable economic and political consequences if that failure is localised in the UK.
Much of the national infrastructure – railways, roads, energy production and supply, water and sewage works – was constructed in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Their robustness and resilience provided the basis for subsequent economic and population growth far beyond what was envisaged at the time.
More recent infrastructure developments in information and communications technologies (ICT) now underpin the operation of the other sectors. The major change over the last 50 years has been the gradual, but ultimately seismic, shift from a series of unconnected structures to an interconnected NI where failure in one part has a direct and damaging knock‐on effect in others.
The UK national infrastructure is now a network of networks.”
Systemic Interaction
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Outcome
• Acceptance that– ‘the UK infrastructure is a network of networks’
• ‘Regulation’ as currently exercised is incompetent– Economic focus – principally regulating price– (Largely) private ownership and/or operation– Considers the individual parts, not the whole
• ‘Performance’ and ‘Resilience’ are– Not understood – lack of meaningful data– Cannot be ‘managed’ – lack of ‘organisation’
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Next Steps
• But what about in practice?• Further research….
– Case Studies• Olympic Park, High Speed 2, Eurostar, National Air Traffic Services• Cockermouth Disaster, Gloucester Floods• Food Distribution, International Supply Chains• National Grid, ICT Networks, Water in the Gas Supply
– Interviews, Workshops, Discussions• UK and Australia
– ‘systemic’ needed explanation to many…..
• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction
– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity of one element with others – this constitutes an entity which can be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’
– Some founding ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester etc
Systemic Interaction
ICT
Energy
Transport Water
Waste
Energy Waste WaterICTTransport
The Elements
The Interactions
Systemic Interaction
ICT
Energy
Transport Water
Waste
Energy Waste WaterICTTransport
The Elements
The Interactions
The System
Systemic Interaction
• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction
– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity of one element with others – this constitutes an entity which can be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’
– Founding ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester
• Interdependency– The functioning of one element of the infrastructure depends on one (or more) other elements
– Issues cannot be resolved in isolation• Emergent properties
– Systems exhibit properties that belong only to the system as a whole – not to any of its elements
» Flight
Systemic Interaction
Systemic Interaction -flight
Airframe Propulsion
ControlSystem
EnergySupplySystem
ManagementSystem
MaintenanceSystem
Systemic Interaction –safe flights
EnergySupplySystem
ATCSystem
Airframe Propulsion
ControlSystem
ManagementSystem
MaintenanceSystem
Systemic Interaction –regulated airspace
EnergySupplySystem
ATCSystem
Airframe Propulsion
ControlSystem
ManagementSystem
MaintenanceSystemRegulatory
System
• Why is it a problem?• Current paradigm
– (Relatively) linear, reductionist thinking– Solutions to THIS issue are developed in isolation from THOSE issues– But THOSE issues are interdependent with THIS one
Systemic Interaction
• Why is it a problem?• Sometimes, rather than solve issues they are moved or displaced:
– The NHS displaces patients from one budget holder to another» changes in GP contracts re out of hours surgery has displaced local practice volumes to A&E departments
» the number of people treated is, roughly, the same
• Sometimes issues in one area impose a cost burden in another –which renders it beyond control
– Healthcare for those involved in road accidents imposes costs on the NHS and the Insurance Companies not the DSA
– But the DSA owns the licence giving system– The ‘pain’ is displaced ensuring that the ‘owning’ entity does not fix the system
Systemic Interaction
• The Good, the Bad and the Disinterested– Ideas around for about around 100 years– Offers approacheswhich are
• ends and means oriented • organisational and social views
– VSM, SSM, Systems Dynamics, SAST, CSH– ‘Systems’ or ‘holistic’ thinking beginning to be adopted– But not core in Academic or Professional Education (or Engineering)
• It is easier to work within the established paradigm than change the thinking (Machiavelli)
• There is a dearth of truly systemic thinking in our approaches to problem solving
• This may well exacerbate our challenges as systemic interactions become more complex
– More widely – the language of systems is being used – but without meaning!• “Humpty Dumpty paid his words extra to make them mean what he chose, but he couldn’t change the nature of the things that they described” Beer (1966)
Systems Thinking in the UK
• Adopting a new paradigm• Einstein on madness?
– “Doing the same thing and expecting a different result”
The Challenges
• Adopting a new paradigm• Einstein on madness?
– “Doing the same thing and expecting a different result”• If we want to change the way things work (and it rather looks
like we need to) then we need to adopt different methods
The Challenges
• Do the (systemically) right thing right not the wrong thing better!– Understand the ‘system of infrastructure’– Integrate its management– ‘Dissolve the problem’
• Address the systemic problem – not the symptom– interconnectedness means that solving one problem may well solve another!
– Exploit the transformational potential of ICT
Opportunities
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Indicative Model: Current Situation
OfGen
Transport
Waste
GovernmentPolicy
OfWat
OfCom
EconomicRegulators
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Economic ConstraintsUKCP’nn’, IPCC, Votes
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Logical Constraints on Freedom
Business Units
The Industry
The Regulator
Infrastructure UK
Balancing National, Cross‐Sector and Sector interests:action on empowerment, acceptance of constraints
Freedom
Freedom
Government Policy
empowers and constrains
empowers and constrains
empowers and constrains
empowers and constrains
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Planning andAdaptation
Policy
Waste
Transport
Energy
ICT
Water
Integrationand Control
Viable System forInfrastructure
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Indicative Model:Integrating Infrastructure UK
Future Environment:Market, SocietyTechnology, CustomersUKCP’nn’, IPCC, Votes
OfGen
Transport?
Waste?
GovernmentPolicy
OfWat
OfCom
Planning &Modelling
InterdependencyResilience
‘Golden Share’
PerformanceRegulators:Economic?Resilience?Low Carbon?
Infrastructure UK
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
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Indicative Model:Integrating Infrastructure UK
Future Environment:Market, SocietyTechnology, CustomersUKCP’nn’, IPCC, Votes
OfGen
Transport
Waste
GovernmentPolicy
OfWat
OfCom
Planning &Modelling
InterdependencyResilience
‘Golden Share’
PerformanceRegulators:Economic?Resilience?Low Carbon?
Infrastructure UK
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
Operators
just in case
just in time
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
Market, Technology,Customers
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Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
The Potentiometer
Drivingoperationalimprovement
Drivingstrategicimprovement
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Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
The Potentiometer
Drivingoperationalimprovement
Drivingstrategicimprovement
Infrastructure UK
Regulators
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Managing Performance
Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
Drivingoperationalimprovement
Drivingstrategicimprovement
Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
Drivingoperationalimprovement
Drivingstrategicimprovement
Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
Drivingoperationalimprovement
Drivingstrategicimprovement
Economic
Resilience
Low Carbon
Actual
Capability
Potential
Productivity
Latency
Effectiveness
Overall Performance
Limited by the worst performing element
• Systemic Model of the whole infrastructure• Infrastructure Supply Chain Review
– Capability, Resilience, National Risk
• Resilience Assessment for every infrastructure project• Resilience Share Investment
– Private Capital – just in time– Public Capital – just in case
• Skills Investment– Systems Thinking– Information Utilisation
• Invest in Critical ICT and Communications Systems
Proposals
Infrastructure UK: Initial Research
• National Infrastructure Plan section 3.41 requirement:– assess and report on systemic risks and opportunities in infrastructure
• I‐UK work programme overview November 2010:– interdependencies ….. are understood and managed
• Specific brief: Study current or recent infrastructure projects:– integration opportunities have been secured or missed– interdependency risks have been managed and/or neglected
– identify issues to addressed which manage/mitigate risk
UNCLASSIFIED 65
• To study a number of current or recent infrastructure projects and identify where:– Integration Opportunities have been secured and/or missed
– Interdependency risks have been managed and/or neglected
– To identify issues which must be addressed to obtain benefit or manage/mitigate risks
Objective
Infrastructure UK: Initial Research
• Case Studies– Extreme Weather Impact– Kings Cross Redevelopment– Gloucester Floods Retrospective– ODA: Transport Infrastructure– E‐On: Power Distribution– Frog Island: Energy from Waste– Fukushima Tsunami– High Speed 2– Grain CHP– Lean Thinking– Literature Review
Key Findings (1)
• Systems approach could deliver benefits:– in the order of 10% on new investments
• either reduced costs or increased return• equates to £4bn per annum against a £40bn spend• similar scale benefits to private sector of £16bn against £160bn
– risk reduction and preventative work• around £1‐£2bn per annum
Key Findings (2)
• Systemic interactions– are not recognised or addressed
• 400 infrastructure impairments in November/December 2010– £1.5bn cost (Quarmby)– £3bn Gloucester Floods, 2007– could have been prevented for between £150m ‐ £400m
– purposeful, value focused approach• potential for significant investment, CO2, and performance gain
– ODA converted own £800m to £5.7bn of investment value– Grain power station
» 72% thermal efficiency through co‐location and 350kt CO2 reduction
Key Findings (3)
• Supply chains are poorly understood and managed– risks and vulnerabilities are not addressed– opportunities for integration are missed– international vulnerabilities
• Infrastructure owners lack awareness– of their dependency on other providers– of their impact on higher order infrastructure
• lack of meaningful data
• Lessons learned in other sectors could be applied– Toyota Production System (lean manufacturing)– systems based organisation design
Recommendations (1)
• All investment be guided by:– appreciation of the balance between value and cost– improvement in effectiveness and resilience– ‘magenta book’ – guidelines for investment decisions
• Regulatory review– cross‐sectoral consistency– avoidance of perverse outcomes
• Formally recognise and address the absolute and critical interdependency of Energy and ICT
Recommendations (2)
• ‘resilience contribution assessment’• Regulatory cycles (5‐8 years) need to (somehow) respect the capital cycles of the relevant sector (25‐60 years) to generate greater certainty for investors
• Infrastructure performance data, be collected through telemetry
• I‐UK roles of– strategic oversight– advice on performance, resilience, investment, sustainability
• Application of systems models and methods
Systemic Interaction -society
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Systemic Interaction -society
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
• Primary Infrastructure– Water, Energy, Waste, ICT, Transport (WEWIT)
• Dependent Infrastructure– Healthcare, Education, Commerce, Civil Administration, Defence etc
• Society– is the emergent property of the ‘Dependent Infrastructure System’ – which is an emergent property of the ‘Primary Infrastructure System’
– If either should fail, both will fail
– Hurricane Katrina!
Systemic Interaction -Society
RailVehicle
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Systemic Interaction –The Journey
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• No single definition– Recovery time?– Minimal Impairment?
• Working Definition 2013:– An infrastructure system is resilient when, although dependent on systemic interactions, connectedness of the whole system is such that functioning continues to be effective when one or more of the interactions fails
Resilience
Hierarchy of Resilience
ICT
Energy
Transport Water
Waste
Energy Waste WaterICTTransportNetwork
Systemic
Asset PumpingStations Reservoirs
Recycling Centre
AnaerobicDigestion Plant
Exchanges Masts
Generation Sub‐Stations
Exchanges Masts
PumpsPipesCables SwitchesValvesRegulators ControlSystemsTurbinesArtefact
Parts
Sub‐Assemblies
Parts
Sub‐Assemblies
ComponentParts
Sub‐Assemblies
Parts
Sub‐Assemblies
Parts
Sub‐Assemblies
Surfing the Waves
• Inspired by response of HMT to initial work• Traditional economic modelling for growth
– Considered individual elements of infrastructure– Picked up co‐location, sharing– Did not appear to model interdependency from either a performance, resilience or
economic perspective– Considered economic benefits of ‘THIS’ but not the consequences for ‘THESE’
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
Surfing the Waves
• Inspired by response of HMT to initial work• Traditional economic modelling for growth
– considered individual elements of infrastructure– picked up co‐location, sharing– did not appear to model interdependency from either a performance, resilience or
economic perspective– considered economic benefits of ‘THIS’ but not the consequences for ‘THESE’
• So, how to address?
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
Surfing the Waves
• Inspired by response of HMT to initial work• Traditional economic modelling for growth
– considered individual elements of infrastructure– picked up co‐location, sharing– did not appear to model interdependency from either a performance, resilience or
economic perspective– considered economic benefits of ‘THIS’ but not the consequences for ‘THESE’
• So, how to address?• Need a model that accepts and values interdependency• Also need to understand that:
– time is an important element– economic benefits do not respect either the budgetary or electoral cycles
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• “The UK Infrastructure is a network of networks” CST 2009
• Each element‐EnergyTransportICTWaterWaste‐ depends to some degree on the others
• Might models that deal with interdependency provide the feedstock for economic modelling?
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
Surfing the Waves
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
Surfing the Waves
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
Surfing the Waves
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
Surfing the Waves
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
Surfing the Waves
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness
• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited
• Increased activity without investment generates growth
• Effectiveness = ROI?
Surfing the Waves
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Demand Management
Critical Communications
Demand Management
Depends on
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• When the current capability and potential is fully exploited what happens?– or failing or in need of replacement
• The economic case is hard to make for the replacement or upgrade• Locally it costs too much and in itself does not provide sufficient additional
value• Perhaps, the economic benefit is embedded in its enabling role?• Perhaps, the benefit can be measured:
– elsewhere in the network of networks of the primary infrastructure– in the secondary infrastructure– in societal rather than economic benefit
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• When the current capability and potential is fully exploited what happens?– or failing or in need of replacement
• The economic case is hard to make for the replacement or upgrade• Locally it costs too much and in itself does not provide sufficient additional
value• Perhaps, the economic benefit is embedded in its enabling role?• Perhaps, the benefit can be measured:
– elsewhere in the network of networks of the primary infrastructure– in the secondary infrastructure– in societal rather than economic benefit
• We need to understand investment and growth in a systemic sense
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Infrastructure investment works in waves over time:– Wave 1: Design and build– Wave 2: Maintain– Wave 3: Exploit
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit
• Wave 3 belongs to infrastructure users– Lasts the life of the primary element– May have multiple cycles– Will have multiple exploiters– Benefit is perhaps measured in:
• the exploiting infrastructure NOT the primary infrastructure• the social infrastructure – education, commerce, civil administration, healthcare, defence
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?
• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit
• Wave 3 belongs to infrastructure users– Lasts the life of the primary element– May have multiple cycles– Will have multiple exploiters– Benefit is perhaps measured in:
• the exploiting infrastructure NOT the primary infrastructure• the social infrastructure – education, commerce, civil administration, healthcare, defence
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Surfing the Waves
Wave 1
Wave 2 Maintain
Build
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Surfing the Waves
Wave 1
Wave 2
Wave 3
Maintain
Build
Exploit
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
ICT
Water Waste
Energy Transport
enables depends on
Commerce
Defence Civil Admin
Health Education
Society
Surfing the Waves
© Beckford Consulting 1991 - 2012
• Suggestion is that we need to develop and adopt systemic economic models to synthesise and understand how to realise the potential of:– Economic and social benefit from:
• individual entities• co‐located and co‐dependent entities• interdependent networks• networks of Networks
– Develop and test systemic hypotheses in economic terms– Address the challenges of:
• integrated investment by fragmented owners• long‐term, inter‐generational infrastructure investment• short term electoral and budget cycle thinking
Surfing the Waves
Effectiveness
Activity
Capability
Utilisation
Potential
Latency
• Systemic thinking embedded in the National Infrastructure Plan 2011, 2012
• Hybrid Bill (2018) for HS2 includes, for the first time provision for ‘commercially exploitable communications capability’
– Provision of dark fibre– Phase 2 likely to include other infrastructure provisions
• PF2, son of PFI, will include Government holding equity in infrastructure ventures
• TRaCCA research explicitly includes a systemic approach to modelling impacts
• ITRC is modelling the whole UK Infrastructure– £10m, EPSRC, Led by Oxford
• Ongoing research by UCL & UOB to develop modelling tools for systemic infrastructure evaluation
Impact
• Rail Safety and Standards Board and Network Rail• British Geological Survey• CIRIA
Ongoing Infrastructure Work
Idealised
Views
Client
Model of
Problem
Client
Emergent
Model of
Issue
Consultant
Shared Model
of Issue Agreed
Yes
No
ProposeWay Forward
Check
Understanding
Outline
Solution
Check
Solution
What has been misunderstood?
Developing a Shared Model
Cybernetics in Practice
• Organisational Effectiveness Consultancy
Cybernetics in Practice
EffectivenessInformationSystems
Organisation
Feedback
People
Process, Structure, Decisions
Values, Skills, Behaviours
• Ordnance Survey– ‘risk proximity and resilience mapping’– AI approach
Cybernetics in Practice
Supply dependency
Delivery dependency
e.g., Power Station
e.g., HT Cable
Asset dependence
Asset Vulnerability
Asset Resilience
GroundRisk
e.g.,Flood;Slip;Subsidence;Erosion; etc
AssetOnward Supply
Onward Delivery
Σ Onward NetworkVulnerability
Asset Criticality
Asset ResilienceAsset CriticalityGround
Criticality=
Asset VulnerabilityAsset CriticalityAsset
ExposureIndex
=Influence: Outfluence:
THIS Asset depends on THAT THAT Asset depends on THIS
• ‘The Neuron’– Applies cybernetics to enable machine learning– Data synthesis to accelerate research– A Probabilistic Classification Engine?– A H Marks – Styrene Inhibition– HSBC – People Selection– Network Rail – natural hazard risk management (in discussion)
– Technology Strategy Board – intelligent transport systems (in discussion)
Cybernetics in Practice
• Business Intelligence– Haymarket Publishing– Welcome Break– SAP– National Cancer Research Network
• Performance Management Systems– Hewitt Associates ‐ ISO9000– Sunbase Property ‐ ISO9000– Parcelforce ‐ Potentiometer– GNER ‐ Christophers’ Toy– A H Marks – R & D Management
Cybernetics in Practice
• Information Systems Design and Development– GNER – Overall Architecture– Arena Housing – Information Systems Strategy
• ‘The Data Hut’– Fusion 21 – ERP System, Process Management System– Astra Zeneca – Project Management– Aylesford Newsprint – Performance Simulation– InHealth Group – Performance Simulation & Optimisation– Higher Kings Mill – Costing & Pricing Tool– BBC – Optimisation– SERCO – Shared Service Centre Performance Evaluation– Northumbrian Water – Information Strategy
Cybernetics in Practice
Beckford Consulting © 2011Beckford Consulting © 2011
Understand the informationneeded to manage the business
Business Effectiveness
Develop an Information Strategy
Understand the value to the businessof having that information
Business Financial Performance
Determine what hardware andsystems are needed
Commission Information Projects
Measurethe InformationPayback
Measurethe ValueAdded
Information Projects
• Organisational Effectiveness– Hoverspeed & IOM Steam Packet – structure and organisation– Fusion21 – structure, organisation, behaviour, processes– Arena Housing Group – structure, organisation, behaviour– Northumbrian Water (IS) – structure, organisation, behaviour– Northern Rail (IS) – structure, organisation, behaviour– The Congregation of the Sisters of Nazareth – purpose, structure,
organisation, behaviour, information systems– GNER – organisation, structure, processes– Alpha Trains Gmbh – structure, process, information systems– National Express– Honda
Cybernetics in Practice
Cybernetics in Practice
Business Performance
Appraisal
HRM Planning Process
Revise Quality
Manual(s)
Special Processes
Normal Procedures
Qualify Tasks
Document Procedures
Accredit/ APEL
Existing Staff
Validate Procedures
Develop Task Specific
Training
Upskill/ Implement
Training
Validate Training
Skills QMS
Appraisal/ Task
Performance Review
Succession Planning
Career Development
Personal Development/
Generic Training
Identify Key Quality Measures
Identify Key Performance
Measures
Performance QMS
Quality Review
Meetings
Workflow Tracking System
"Internal Audit" (skills & process)
Business Planning Process
Integrate Statutory
Requirements