system design & management - mit sdm · 2020. 3. 25. · donny holaschutz sdm 2010. agenda •...
TRANSCRIPT
system design &
management
Renewable Energy Integration
Opportunities & Challenges in Chile
Jorge Moreno SDM 2011
Donny Holaschutz SDM 2010
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
2
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
3
Chile has been a Leader in Integration of
Renewable Energy
4
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GW
Solar Installed Capacity*
Chile
Rest of South
America &
Central
America
Country
% Percentage of Solar
& Wind Generated
(2016)*
Denmark 44.6%
Lithuania 27.3%
Spain 22.8%
Portugal 22.0%
Ireland 20.2%
Germany 17.8%
Greece 17.1%
Italy 14.2%
United Kingdom 14.1%
Romania 13.2%
Belgium 9.9%
Sweden 9.9%
Austria 9.2%
Netherlands 8.3%
Australia 7.9%
Poland 7.6%
US 6.6%
Turkey 6.3%
Chile 6.3%
*BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Chile has been a Leader in Integration of
Renewable Energy
5
Country
% Percentage of Solar
& Wind Generated
(2016)*
Denmark 44.6%
Lithuania 27.3%
Spain 22.8%
Portugal 22.0%
Ireland 20.2%
Germany 17.8%
Greece 17.1%
Italy 14.2%
United Kingdom 14.1%
Romania 13.2%
Belgium 9.9%
Sweden 9.9%
Austria 9.2%
Netherlands 8.3%
Australia 7.9%
Poland 7.6%
US 6.6%
Turkey 6.3%
Chile 6.3%
Chile Exceded
10%
in 2017
*BP Statistical Review of World Energy
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
% o
f W
ind &
Sola
r E
nerg
y G
enera
ted
Month
2017
High Energy Prices & Opportunities to Sign
PPAs have Driven Integration
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Ave
rage
Off
ere
d P
rice
($
US
D/M
Wh
)
Regulated Client Auctions
En
erg
y C
on
tra
cte
d (
GW
h)
Block Scheme
Introduced
Most New Projects
Associated
to Winning Bids are
Wind or Solar
Overview on the Chilean National Electricity
System: Current Regional Dynamics
7
Primarily Thermal Primarily Hydrothermal
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
8
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Ge
ne
ratio
n (
MW
)
Hour
CoalRoR HydroOthersGasReservoir HydroSolarWind
Wind and Solar Integration is Changing the Net Load
9
March 28th, 2018Approximation of Net Load
One-Hour Net Load Ramps Requirements in the System
10
The One-Hour Net Load Ramp Requirement in the System
could double by 2021 and triple by 2026
11
2021
2,750
-2,750
0 MW
Max 1745 MW/hr
Min -1393 MW/hr
Max 2837 MW/hr
Min -2463 MW/hr2026
The Duck Curve does Not Always Apply to Chile
12
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Hours
Net Load
Net Load minus Hydro ReservoirGeneration
Winter
Day
Summer
Day
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Hours
Net load
Net Load minus Hydro ReservoirGeneration
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Hours
Net Load
Net Load minus Hydro ReservoirGeneration
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Hours
Net Load
Net Load minus Hydro ReservoirGeneration
Dry Scenario (2021) Wet Scenario (2021)
In Chile the (Net Load – Hydro Curve) Looks More
like a Penguin from the Patagonia Swimming
13
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Hours
Net Load
Net Load minus Hydro ReservoirGeneration
Winter
Day
Summer
Day
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Hours
Net load
Net Load minus Hydro ReservoirGeneration
Wet Scenario (2021)
Integration of Solar & Wind will Give Rise to
the “Middle Market”
14
The “Middle Market” has reached 2500 MW and could double o triple in the next ten years
Capacity Needs Are Changing with New Flexibility Needs
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
15
In the North – Wind and Solar Have been
Integrated Rapidly
16
Feb 27, 2018Feb 27, 2016NES-SING and
NES-SIC North
Central Interconnected System (SIC) & Northern Interconnected System (SING)
were connected in November 2017 to create the National Energy System (NES)
17
NES-SING and
NES-SIC North
Regional Net- Load Dynamics: In the North the
Duck Will Rapidly Get Chopped
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
De
ma
nd
-G
en
era
tio
n(M
W)
Hour of Day
Net Load Solar Wind
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
De
ma
nd
-G
ene
ratio
n(M
W)
Hour of Day
Net Load Solar Wind
Winter
Day
Summer
Day
Scenario (2021)
18
High wind generation in zone 1 & 2 coincide with the drop in solar PV production, as well as local peak demand.
As the integration of wind and solar generation increases in the north deviations from the forecasted wind generation in the north could increase the stress on the system in real-time operations.
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
19
Startups Increasing in Gas Units (2017) &
Operations Likely to Continue
20
Kelar on 11/16/2017
Actual
ActualDay Ahead Plan
In a 2026 Scenario with a Carbon Tax of 30 USD/ton, Coal
Plants Stay on Cycling to Minimum Load
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Tim
e a
t M
inim
um
Ou
tpu
t L
eve
l (%
)
Capacity Factor (%)
SING SIC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Ge
ne
ratio
n (
MW
)
Hours
Guacolda (SIC North)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Ge
ne
ratio
n (
MW
)
Hours
All units in the SING and the north of the SIC are kept either operating between their minimum stable level and maximum net capacity, or operating constantly at a minimum level to provide reserves.
High Variable Cost Flexible Units have been
Used more than Planned (Oct 2016 - Sept 2017)
22
.
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
23
Coal Plants Affected by Effluent Temperature Limitations in
the North under Strong Niño Conditions in the Pacific Ocean
24
Day Ahead Plan
Actual
NTO2 Unit
UNIT NOV 2016 DEC 2016 JAN 2017 FEB 2017
°C
Effluent Temperature Limitation of Coal Power Plants Coincides
with the Drop of Solar PV Generation and Spinning Reserves
25
Actual
Day Ahead Plan
At 19:11 on Feb 20th 2018 the CTM 1
Unit Reports:
• Limitation Due to High
Temperatures at the Discharge
• States that Generation Capacity
will be Limited to 110 MW
Days with Water
Temperature
Limitations
Defined Local Emissions Limits Can Affect
Power Market Operations
26
Emissions Limits for Existing Units
Fuel Particulate Matter
(MP) mg/Nm3
Sulfur Dioxide
(SO2) mg/Nm3
Nitrous Oxide
(NOx) mg/Nm3
Coal 50 400 500
Liquid 30 30 200
Gas N/A N/A 50
MP & SO2 can exceed the limit 5% of the hours due to (startup, shutdown, and trips)
NOx must meet limit during 70% of the hours operating, including startup periods.
In 2016 gas units exceeded:
• NOx limits for existing units 54%
of the time during startup
In 2016 coal units exceeded:
• PM & SO2 limits for existing units
23% of the time during startup
• NOx for existing units 12% of the
time during startup
NOx Emissions Measurement of a Gas Unit (CCGT)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
mg/N
m3
Generation (MW)
Hora Encendido
En Regimen
Startup Hours
Continuous Operations
Challenges Meeting the Current Standard
At Partial Load & During Startup
*Ministry of Energy 2017
Limitations can Affect Power Market Operations
27
*Ministry of Energy 2017
Limitations can Affect Power Market Operations
28
CTTAR Coal Unit – July 11th, 2017
Day Ahead Plan
Actual
Problems with SO2 mitigations
equipment start at 7:44 am At 11:25 am it reports that unit will
shut down for high emissions and
problems with SO2 mitigations
equipment
*Ministry of Energy 2017
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
29
Dynamics of 3-13-2018 in the North part of
the SEN
30
Hour of Day Hour of Day Hour of Day
Planned
Actual
Marginal Costs Reached
148 $USD/MWh at 10pm
Dynamics of 3-13-2018 in the North part of
the SEN
31
Hour of Day Hour of Day Hour of Day
Planned
Actual
Wind and solar generation
398 MW less than expected at 3pm
Coal generation rapidly deviating
reaches 414 MW less than expected at
7pm
32
Solar Generation SING
Solar Generation
SIC North
Actual
Dynamics of 3-13-2018 in the North part of
the SEN
1 Hour Ramp Manageable Generation SING
1 Hour Ramp Manageable Generation SIC North
Dynamics of 3-13-2018 in the North part of
the SEN
33
Day Ahead Plan
CTM1 Coal Plant Reports Cooling
Limitation at 9:16pm
Sierra Gorda Wind Farm
Actual
ActualDay Ahead Plan
Actual
Valle de los Vientos Wind Farm
Day Ahead Plan
Marginal Costs
148 $USD/MWh
at 10pm in SING
Variations between the Planned Marginal Costs
(Day Ahead) and the Real in the SING
34
0
50
100
150
200
250
12
89
577
865
115
31
44
11
72
92
01
72
30
52
59
32
88
13
16
93
45
73
74
54
03
34
32
14
60
94
89
75
18
55
47
35
76
16
04
96
33
76
62
56
91
37
20
17
48
9
Ma
rgin
al C
ost (U
SD
/MW
h)
CMg Real CMg Prog
0
50
100
150
200
250
11
18
235
352
469
586
703
820
937
105
41
17
11
28
81
40
51
52
21
63
91
75
61
87
31
99
02
10
72
22
42
34
12
45
82
57
52
69
22
80
92
92
63
04
3
Ma
rgin
al C
ost (U
SD
/MW
h)
CMg Real CMg Prog
Marginal Cost SING (Crucero Busbar)
Pre-Interconnection (Jan 2017 – Nov 2017)
Marginal Cost SING (Crucero Busbar)
Post-Interconnection (Nov 2017-Mar 2018)
Underestimated
Marginal Cost
Overestimated
Marginal Cost
Dynamics of 3-26-2018 in
the North part of the SEN
35
Marginal Costs
Overestimated
ProgrammedReal
Programed SING to SIC
but flowed from SIC to SING
Imports from the SIC
provided flexibility &
lowered marginal cost
between 7pm & Midnight
Hour of Day
Hour of Day
Planned
Actual
Dynamics of 9-23-2017 SIC (Pre-Interconnection)
36
Less Renewables than Expected
Reservoir Hydro & Gas provided Flexibility
Dynamics of 9-23-2017 SIC (Before
Interconnection)
37
Less Renewables than Expected
Reservoir Hydro & Gas provided Flexibility
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
38
Overview of Planned Reserves for Frequency Regulation: PFC (Contingency) + PFC (Up Regulation) + SFC (Up)Case December 2017 (average day)
39
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Hour
BESS Gas Coal
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Hour
Gas Hydro Coal
Different reserve providers
in the SIC-Center and SIC-
South.
Competitive advantage of
generators that provide
reserves in different
regions of the NES-SIC.
NES-SING
NES-SIC
PFC: Primary Frequency Control
SCF: Secondary Frequency Control
Recently, the interconnection
(NES-SIC & NES-SING)
allowed the reduction of
reserve requirements for PFC
in the system.
40
Primary
Reserves
Planned Reserves SIC North & SING 3/03/2018
Battery Angamos
Battery Cochrane
PF
C D
ow
n R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C U
p R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C C
ontingency
(MW
)
41
Primary
Reserves
Secondary
Reserves
Planned Reserves SIC North & SING 3/03/2018
Battery Angamos
Battery Cochrane
Coal Over Supply
Of Reserves
During the Day
PF
C D
ow
n R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C U
p R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C C
ontingency
(MW
)
SF
C U
p R
egula
tion
(MW
)S
FC
Dow
n R
egula
tion
(MW
)
42
Primary
Reserves
Secondary
Reserves
Planned Reserves SIC North & SING 3/03/2018
Battery Angamos
Battery Cochrane
Coal Over Supply
Of Reserves
During the Day
When there is renewable curtailment &
transmission constraints price signal
drops to zero.
SF
C U
p R
egula
tion
(MW
)S
FC
Dow
n R
egula
tion
(MW
)P
FC
Dow
n R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C U
p R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C C
ontingency
(MW
)
43
Primary
Reserves
Secondary
Reserves
Planned Reserves SIC North & SING 3/03/2018
Battery Angamos
Battery Cochrane
Reserves Supply
Tightens up
After Sun Hours
PF
C D
ow
n R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C U
p R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C C
ontingency
(MW
)
SF
C U
p R
egula
tion
(MW
)S
FC
Dow
n R
egula
tion
(MW
)
44
Primary
Reserves
Secondary
Reserves
Planned Reserves SIC North & SING 3/03/2018
Battery Angamos
Battery Cochrane
Opportunity for
Renewables to Provide
SFC Down Regulation
PF
C D
ow
n R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C U
p R
egula
tion
(MW
)
PF
C C
ontingency
(MW
)
SF
C U
p R
egula
tion
(MW
)S
FC
Dow
n R
egula
tion
(MW
)
Use of More Gas and Diesel than Planned in Day
Ahead Coincide with Tightening of Reserve Supply
45
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Cu
mu
lati
ve H
ou
rly
Dev
iati
on
s (G
Wh
)
Hours
Gas Diesel
October 2016 – September 2017 (SING)
Increases in Wind Capacity Drives New
Ramping and Reserve Requirements
• Projected Variability will Drive Definitions of Reserves
– Scenario for 20-min variability
– Wind generation developed across Chile
46
Wind Data: AWS Truepower
47
If no new flexible
generation projects are
added, increasing spinning
reserve requirements
increases:
1. VRE Curtailment,
2. CO2 Emissions, and
3. Operational Costs
for Medium Hydrological
Conditions
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
48
Effects of Carbon Policy on the Middle Market
49
8760 8760 8760
Dry Scenario (2026)2017
New RoR Projects Get Developed
Increasing the Carbon Price Does Not Have
the Same Effects on the SIC and the SING
50
SEN SING SEN SIC
Flexibility of reservoir hydro & reservoir hydro’s ability to provide reserves allows CO2 price signal
to be more effective in SIC
(Dry Scenarios)
Agenda
• Trends in Wind & Solar Integration in Chile
• Emerging Dynamics in the Power System
– Changes in the Net Load
– Regionalization of Power System Dynamics
– New Modes of Operations of Existing Units
– Emerging Socio-Technical Constraints
– Real Time Deviations from the Day Ahead Plan
– Challenges to Operations of Reserves
– The Interactions between Carbon Policy & the Power Market
• Opportunities to Utilize Existing Flexibility & Encourage Investment in New Flexibility
51
Integration of Solar & Wind will Give Rise to
the “Middle Market”
52
Capacity requirements are
changing with emerging
flexibility needs
Today, flexibility isn’t being
fully remunerated.
How will Chile keep
integrating more renewable
energy efficiently and
effectively?
Over time, how will Chile
efficiently and effectively
replace its existing
thermoelectric assets with
newer more flexible assets?
Hours
New Modes of Operation Increase Costs for Existing Units
Creates Opportunities for New Technologies
53
Type of Unit Case SummaryTime
Operating (hrs)
Starts Trips
Total Variable O&M (VOM)
Cost* (USD/MWh)
280 MW –
Coal Unit
Case 1 – Plant Operating at Full Load with an
Average Time per Cycle of 1875 hrs7500 Limited 4 2.5
Case 2 – Daily Cycling between technical
minimum and full load.7116 Limited 4 2.6
400 MW -
CCGT Unit
Case 1 - Mostly Full load operating 6000 hrs. 6000 Limited 4 3.2
Case 2 - 150 real starts per year from start to
load following.4000
150 Warm
Starts8 6.1
Case 3 - 300 real starts per year from start to
load following.4000
300 Warm
Starts8 8.8
The Policy Levers to Incentivize Investment into New
Flexibility Options for the System are Intertwined
54
Energy
MarketLong Term
Contracts
Capacity
Market Ancillary
Services
Market
CO2
Policy
Demand
Side
PolicyTX & Dist
Planning
Demand
Environmental
Regulation
Focusing on just improving the parts of the policy independently will not guarantee
improving the performance of the whole
The performance of the electricity system will depend on how the policy levers fit
together not what they achieve separately
55
The improvement of
the performance of the
Electricity System will
not be driven by
pondering about the
future, but rather really
understanding what is
happening today to find
opportunities to
improve the system for
the long term.
Key Areas to Observe to Find
Opportunities for Flexibility:
1. Performance of existing thermoelectric
facilities
2. Variability & deviations from the planned
3. Deviations between actual & expected
economic performance of the system
4. New constraints which emerge as the system
operates
5. The behavior of the “Middle Market” & its
interaction with Environmental restrictions &
CO2 Policy
6. Interactions between energy and operating
reserve services
7. Performance parameters which will be more
relevant to address new challenges such as
satisfying the net-load or improving regional
needs
Upcoming Related Presentations & Paper
56
NEW MARKET INTERACTIONS IN THE CHILEAN ELECTRICITY
SYSTEM WITH HIGH INTEGRATION OF VARIABLE
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Benjamin Maluenda, Lead Analyst at inodú
Jorge Moreno, Partner at inodú
Donny Holaschutz, Partner at inodú
Esteban Gil, Professor at Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María
Teaching Masterclass on Opportunities for Storage in MexicoDonny Holaschutz, Partner at inodu
Presentation of New Methodology to Asses Environmental
Impact Industrial Facilities in Chilean Environmental Impact
Assessment SystemJorge Moreno, Partner at inodú
Donny Holaschutz, Partner at inodu
6th International Congress on
Water Management in Mining
2nd International Congress on
Water in Industrial Processes
May 9-11, 2018 │ Santiago, Chile
Challenges Complying with Emissions Limits in Chile Caused by
New Modes of Operations and High Levels of Renewable
Energy Integration Jorge Moreno, Partner at inodú
Donny Holaschutz, Partner at inodu
Presentation for Opportunities for Renewable Energy in MiningJorge Moreno, Partner at inodu
system design &
management
Renewable Energy Integration
Opportunities & Challenges in Chile
Jorge Moreno SDM 2011
Donny Holaschutz SDM 2010