syria blobby control map 20 may 15 - institute for the ... · control of terrain in syria: may 20,...

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10 mi 20 km Rebel Control ISIS Control ISIS, JN, and Rebel Control KEY Regime Control YPG Control JN Control TURKEY IRAQ JORDAN LEBANON Latakia Tartous Homs Hama Aleppo Idlib Ar Raqqah Damascus As Suwayda Deraa Deir ez-Zor Hasakah Palmyra ISIS seized the regime-held town of al-Sukna west of Deir ez-Zour City on May 14, severing the regime’s ground line of communication from Palmyra in the central Homs Desert to Deir ez-Zour City and effectively isolating remaining regime positions in western Deir ez-Zour. ISIS forces then seized the regime stronghold of Palmyra on May 20 after regime forces reportedly executed a full withdrawal from the city, prison, and military airbase. ISIS is in full control of the city and appears to be in control of the Palmyra military airbase and prison, although regime forces are likely to regroup and launch a counter-offensive in the near term. ISW is placing a watch on the town of al-Shoula and the Brigade 137 military base west of Deir ez-Zour City, which are likely upcoming targets as ISIS consolidates its control in eastern Syria. ISIS’s advances in the Homs Desert will allow ISIS to stage for future attacks into the Syrian central corridor, which could create opportuni- ties for other anti-Assad forces to advance on additional fronts. A redeployment of regime forces from the Central Corridor to retake Palmyra could produce similar effects. The East is not the only front on which ISIS is moving in Syria. ISIS seized two regime-held villages east of the Sheikh Najjar industrial area on Aleppo’s northeastern outskirts. ISIS lost territory north of this position to rebels one week prior, which may explain ISIS’s choice to attack regime positions. ISIS may use its anti-Assad fighting stance to cultivate rapport with rebels and Jabhat al-Nusra. Meanwhile, Hezbollah made notable gains against JN and Syrian rebel forces in the Qalamoun mountain range on the Syrian – Lebanon border north of Damascus, shrinking the areas of JN and rebel control along the border. These gains compli- ment an ongoing crackdown by the Lebanese Armed Forces on the Lebanese side of the border, which together appear to have applied considerable pressure on anti-Assad forces in the border region. It will be critical to observe whether ISIS escalates against the regime or Hezbollah in this region in support of JN and rebel forces now that it holds positions in the eastern Homs desert. Tension between ISIS and anti-Assad forces north of Damascus appear to have quieted, and it is possible that ISIS will escalate against regime and Hezbollah forces in an effort to increase its standing in the border region as well as northern Syria. Control of Terrain in Syria: May 20, 2015

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Page 1: Syria Blobby Control Map 20 MAY 15 - Institute for the ... · Control of Terrain in Syria: May 20, 2015. Title: Syria Blobby Control Map 20 MAY 15 Created Date: 5/20/2015 8:19:12

3000 m2000 m1500 m1000 m

750 m500 m400 m300 m200 m100 m

0

10 mi20 km

Rebel Control

ISIS Control

ISIS, JN, and Rebel Control

KEYRegime Control

YPG Control

JN Control

LEGEND

ISIS- ControlRebel / JN Control

Kurdish Control

TURKEY

IRAQ

JORDAN

LEBANO

N

Latakia

Tartous

Homs

Hama

Aleppo

Idlib Ar Raqqah

Damascus

As SuwaydaDeraa

Deir ez-Zor

Hasakah

Palmyra

ISIS seized the regime-held town of al-Sukna west of Deir ez-Zour City on May 14, severing the regime’s ground line of communication from Palmyra in the central Homs Desert to Deir ez-Zour City and e�ectively isolating remaining regime positions in western Deir ez-Zour. ISIS forces then seized the regime stronghold of Palmyra on May 20 after regime forces reportedly executed a full withdrawal from the city, prison, and military airbase. ISIS is in full control of the city and appears to be in control of the Palmyra military airbase and prison, although regime forces are likely to regroup and launch a counter-o�ensive in the near term. ISW is placing a watch on the town of al-Shoula and the Brigade 137 military base west of Deir ez-Zour City, which are likely upcoming targets as ISIS consolidates its control in eastern Syria. ISIS’s advances in the Homs Desert will allow ISIS to stage for future attacks into the Syrian central corridor, which could create opportuni-ties for other anti-Assad forces to advance on additional fronts. A redeployment of regime forces from the Central Corridor to retake Palmyra could produce similar e�ects. The East is not the only front on which ISIS is moving in Syria. ISIS seized two regime-held villages east of the Sheikh Najjar industrial area on Aleppo’s northeastern outskirts. ISIS lost territory north of this position to rebels one week prior, which may explain ISIS’s choice to attack regime positions. ISIS may use its anti-Assad �ghting stance to cultivate rapport with rebels and Jabhat al-Nusra. Meanwhile, Hezbollah made notable gains against JN and Syrian rebel forces in the Qalamoun mountain range on the Syrian – Lebanon border north of Damascus, shrinking the areas of JN and rebel control along the border. These gains compli-ment an ongoing crackdown by the Lebanese Armed Forces on the Lebanese side of the border, which together appear to have applied considerable pressure on anti-Assad forces in the border region. It will be critical to observe whether ISIS escalates against the regime or Hezbollah in this region in support of JN and rebel forces now that it holds positions in the eastern Homs desert. Tension between ISIS and anti-Assad forces north of Damascus appear to have quieted, and it is possible that ISIS will escalate against regime and Hezbollah forces in an e�ort to increase its standing in the border region as well as northern Syria.

Control of Terrain in Syria: May 20, 2015