swot greenhouse farming
TRANSCRIPT
Atlantic Atlantic Agriculture in a Agriculture in a Changing ClimateChanging Climate
David Burton, Ph.D, P.AgDavid Burton, Ph.D, P.AgClimate Change ChairClimate Change ChairNSACNSAC
Agriculture in a Changing Agriculture in a Changing ClimateClimate
• The Climate Change Issue– Mitigation of impacts on the atmosphere– Adapting to changing climatic conditions
• A new “climate” for agriculture– Increased scrutiny of the impacts of agriculture
on the environment– Agriculture as industry
• Agriculture a “price-taker”
We Must Mitigate We Must Mitigate andand AdaptAdapt
• Must seek to mitigate our impacts on the atmosphere– Need to minimize future impacts– For agriculture there are other environmental benefits
• Will not prevent climate change therefore must also focus on adaptation– Agriculture most effected by climate– Climate variability greatest challenge
““SWOT” AnalysisSWOT” Analysis
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Opportunities
• Threats
StrengthsStrengths
• Diversity– Mixed farming systems– Increases economic stability in changing
climate
• Resourcefulness of producer community– Atlantic producers most highly educated
• 43% have education beyond high school (Aubin et al., 2003).
StrengthsStrengths
• Most aware of climate change issue– Of those aware of climate change issue, 68%
believe producers should take responsibility for reducing GHG emissions
– Most willing to undertake voluntary action
• Strong linkage to rural community
WeaknessesWeaknesses
• Profit margins– Small differences between input costs and
returns increases vulnerability– High debit ratio
• Age of agricultural community– Average age 53– 36% intend to retire in next 5 years– Who will be our future producers?
WeaknessesWeaknesses
• Atlantic agriculture industry 4% of National– Sufficient support?
• Concentration in agricultural sector– 23% corporate ownership
• Tools for adaptation– Currently have few tools identified– Limited research and extension capacity
WeaknessesWeaknesses
• Producer awareness– Only 1 in 4 producers aware of climate change
or greenhouse gas issues
• Producer skepticism– 1/3 of agriculture producers feel their will be no
impact of climate change
OpportunitiesOpportunities
• Introduction of new crops to the region– Increased corn and soybean acreage?
• Improved yields of existing crops– Longer growing season
– CO2 fertilization
– Warmer temperatures
Bootsma et al., 2001
Bootsma et al., 2001
Shift to Corn-Soybean-Shift to Corn-Soybean-Barley rotationBarley rotation
• Corn – 2,300 ha @ 5.6 t/ha– $2.4 Million
• Soybean– 3,500 ha @ 2.3 t/h– $2.0 Million
• Barley– 55,000 ha @ 3 t/ha– $23 Million
• $27.4 Million
• Corn – 30,000 ha @ 7 t/ha– $39 Million
• Soybean– 20,000 ha @ 3.0 t/ha– $20 Million
• Barley– 25,000ha @ 3.15 t/ha– $11 Million
• $70 Million
20501995-1998
OpportunitiesOpportunities
• Impetus to develop risk management
• Linkage between adaptation and mitigation– Must address entire system– Stress co-benefits– Provide integrated solutions
ThreatsThreats
• Uncertainty – Do not have good future data sets
• Frequency of extreme events
Drought Severity
Drought Severity
pre-climate change changed climate
freq.(yrs)
+ X*
Xpc
Xcc
- X*
Time (years)
Smit et al., 2002
ThreatsThreats
• Frequency of extreme events• Economic risks
– Direct - Producer and larger community– Indirect - Volatility of markets
• Environmental Impact
ThreatsThreats
• Pests impacts– Greater numbers– Change in pest spectrum
• Sea-level rise– Loss of agricultural land– Salt water intrusion
IssuesIssues
• Water management– Will there be sufficient water? Too much?
• Other demands on water sources
• Ability to retain water on landscape
– Water quality• Potential for increased impacts on water quality
• Salt water intrusion on groundwater
IssuesIssues
• Economic risk management– Rationalize programs
– Stable, predictable programs that can be part of long-term planning
NeedsNeeds
• Improved future climate scenarios
• Increased understanding of vulnerability
• Capacity - research and extension support– Engaging the university community
• BIOCAP Canada
• Atlantic Environmental Science Network Climate Change Cooperative
Thank You