swine flu economic impact
DESCRIPTION
rational of the economic, social and legal impact of the pandemic at the comanies\' levelTRANSCRIPT
“Crisis communication,
legal issues and economic
impact of the Pandemic
Threat” on high profile manager
Today’s session
Moderator:
– Sébastien MODICOM
Chairman:
– Dr Jan-Cédric HANSEN
Contributor:
WELLCOME
Sébastien MODICOM
MG France
Agenda
9:00 am to 9:30 am– welcoming attendees (tea & coffee)
9:30 am to 11 am– Lecture from chairman (plenary session)
11 am to 12– Workshop (2 to 3 individuals per group)
12 am to 1 pm– Lecture from contributor (lunch)
1 pm to 1:30 pm– Workshop restitution and comments
1:30 pm to 1:45 pm – Q&A session
1:45 pm to 1:55– conclusion from chairman
Crisis and catastrophe
Crisis– Alarm signals are not
perceived at the same time nor with the same intensity by stakeholders
– Flags have been “red” for such a long time that all stakeholders are accustomed
– Those who worry feel isolated from managers and directors
– Although available and appropriate, prevention is not a priority
– Most of stakeholders still behave and think as if the situation was in control
Catastrophe– Disappearance/destruction
of frames and limits
– The “event” comes from this sudden confusion between “inside” & “outside”
– Your organisation can no longer – by its own means –control the situation
• Commercial and managerial logics often collide
– Information leaking is inevitable
• Ultimately impacting the whole public domain beyond stakeholders
THE PANDEMIC THREAT
TODAY
Current WHO phase alert is 5
Current situation
Continuous international spread
21 917
128
433
262
+ 3,000 infected per day
+ 100 infected per day
+ 1,000 infected per day
“we do not know the full number of people who are infected across the
entire spectrum” Dr Keiji Fukuda Assistant Director-General ad Interim for Health Security and Environment, World Health
Organization
Total A(H1N1) Death TollTotal H5N1 Infected
Total H5N1 Death Toll Total A(H1N1) Infected
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Total A(H1N1) Death Toll
Total H5N1 Infected
Total H5N1 Death Toll
Total A(H1N1) Infected
With remarkable parallel kinetics
Spain
0100020003000400050006000
Spain
Mexico
Mexico/Spain & USA/UK are paired in terms of evolution and trends
which drives one key conclusion
UK
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
UK
USA
Two main European entry points
Pop: 61 375 416case A(H1N1): 675 Death: 0
Pop: 46 157 822case A(H1N1): 331 Death: 0
Pop: 303 824 646case A(H1N1): 13 217 Death: 27
Pop: 109 955 400case A(H1N1): 5 717 Death: 108
Air traffic is the major contributor of pandemic spreading According to mathematical models reduction of 90% of air traffic will have minimal to no impact on spreading (Colizza, Barrat et al2006)
Close to phase alert 6?
Much of the current discussion at the WHO
– how one makes such assessments with
suggestions coming from the experts ranging
• from clinical assessments of illness
• up into economical impact
MODELLING THE FUTURE
The “pandemic curve”
Pandemic influenza typically occurs in one or more “waves” of approximately 15 weeks in duration. There
will be an inter-wave period of approximately 3 to 6 months prior to the second wave appearing. The peak
of the pandemic wave will normally occur over a 2 week period, usually during weeks 4 to 11 of the
approximately 15 week duration of the pandemic wave.
WE are
HERE
Proportion of the population infected in an epidemicThe proportion of the population infected in an epidemic, as a function of the basic reproduction number R0, and as predicted by the final size equation (Roberts, Baker et al.2006).
The symbols are the results from models of pandemic influenza obtained by the following authors: uptriangles, Ferguson et al. (2005); downtriangles, Ferguson et al. (2006); squares, Longini et al. (2005); circles, Germann et al. (2006); star, Wu et al. (2006).
Basic reproduction number
Impact in key European marketsUK Pop: 61 375 416case A(H1N1): 2506Death: 1
GDP: -1,9
D Pop: 82 369 548case A(H1N1): 275 Death: 0
GDP: -3,8
F Pop: 64 057 790case A(H1N1): 171Death: 0
GDP: -1,2
S Pop: 46 157 822case A(H1N1): 522Death: 0
GDP: -1,6
Total anticipated GDP loss in billions of US $
Source Oxford Economic Forecasting Group & StratAdviser Data on File
I Pop: 58 145 321 case A(H1N1): 88Death: 0
GDP: -2,0
Economic outcomes for UK
Known about seasonal Flu– November to April
• 9 weeks
– 4.2% pop contaminated• <15Y 15% to 50%
• 0.8% fatal
• Fatal >65Y
– Respiratory disease • 1/3 of medical consultations
• 8.3% GDP expenses
• 118 euros/hab/an
• 39 693 000 off days/an
– Mortality of A(H1N1)• 2,4% (Mexico)
• 0,1% (USA)
Probable about A (H1N1)– Department of Health’s modelling
guidelines for the UK are to prepare for
• a 15 week pandemic
• during which 50% of the population will become symptomatic
– Potential Death Toll*:• 153 738 (Worst case)
• 6 405 (Best case)
– The Kermack-McKendrickcompartimental model
• peak incidence of approximately 43,000 new cases per day
•
* 45 000 morts par mois en France toutes causes confondues
Incidence of infectionResults from the structured model when R0=2.0 and no control is applied. The incidence of infection. Curves are (from bottom to top) as follows: ı1(t), incidence in the household; ı1(t)+ı2(t), incidence in the household and schools; ı1(t)+ı2(t)+ı3(t), incidence in the household, schools and workplaces; and ı1(t)+ı2(t)+ı3(t)+ı4(t), total incidence. (Roberts, Baker et al . 2006).
Workplace comes2nd
WHAT SHOULD YOU
IDENTIFY & DO
Identify the real issues
Maintaining essential operations implies to explore and elaborate appropriate responses to– Large scale absenteeism impact due to
• Fear of going to work
• Closures of nurseries or schools
• Domestic travel or public transport restrictions
• Employee sickness or death (personal, family, …)
• Closing of premises for cleaning/disinfection
• Other
– High risk of business disruption due to• Failure to meet corporate contractual obligations
• Inability to meet product or service commitments (raw materials shortage, suppliers failure, sub-contractor services/products defect, logistics restrictions, …)
• Significant financial losses / loss of market-share
• Potential of severely damaged reputation
RESOURCES ASSESSMENT
General purpose documentation
Designed for the general population therefore:
• Doesn’t tell what to do at the office
• Doesn’t respond to questions such as
• If I cough or sneeze at work what do I do?
• If one of my colleague cough or sneeze at work
what do I do?
• If one of my employee cough or sneeze at work
what do I do?
Reference documentation
General information
designed to frame the
duties of employers
and employees as well
as advertise the
Government
preparedness
regarding health and
Safety issues with a
focus on the pandemic
threat
Business oriented documentation
Designed for business owner therefore elicit
specific issues like:
“consider how best to manage people who
develop symptoms consistent with an
Influenza like Infection in the workplace”
BUT
• Doesn’t tell how
• Doesn’t suggest practical solutions
• Doesn’t address the impact of office fans or
conditioned air systems
Have only 2 ½ pages over 27 really dedicated
to workplace
Inspirational documentation
Checklist developed specifically to identify important and
specific activities which organisations can do to prepare for
a pandemic therefore provide a list of key actions:
• Check impact of a pandemic on your business
• Check impact of a pandemic on your employees and
customers
• Establish policies to be implemented during a
pandemic
• Allocate resources to protect employees and customers
during a pandemic
• Communicate to and educate your employees
• Co-ordinate with external organisations and help your
community
BUT
Doesn’t provide any info on how to achieve those with whom
and to what cost
DIRECTORS’ REAL
CONCERN
Business Continuity Plan & Pandemic Threat
Directors’ point of view
You certainly already ask yourself practical questions such as:– How can my employees not be exposed?
– What measures should I take to protect them?
– If I have a case of illness among my employees, what do I do?
– What measures should I take to protect myself?
You know that all these questions must be addressed today– Because it is compulsory
– Because corporate manslaughter is never far away
– Because such questions have direct impact on your P&L
It’s easier than you think
Establish an authorised and competent team to select the relevant partner to work with in order to:– Plan on how to deal with the emotional impact of such
events on the individual’s family as well as the workforce in general
– Develop pre-planned media statements for use when needed
– Prepare contingency statements for delivery to your workforce
– Elaborate early communications to suppliers and customers to set expectations
– Communicate with key stakeholders and the media regularly
Maximize your ROI/ROE
Advertise your company Business continuity plan as soon as possible as – a truly competitive edge
– an added value contributor
Monitor the immediate ROI/ROE delivered by this initiative– Impact on sales
– Impact on customer loyalty
– Impact on manpower
– Impact on fame
Use your relevant partner skills to support you on this
CRISIS COMMUNICATION
Appropriate tools and methodology for your
Define your communication strategy
Integrate long terms objectives such as
– future desired belief of your target audience
– future desired behaviour of your target audience
Choose your strategic objective
– Demonstrate your ability to deal with crisis
– Demonstrate your transparency regarding
communication
– Demonstrate your expertise/skills as managers
– …
Specificity of a crisis environment
Integrate that crisis communication– Target numerous diverging sources
– Interest numerous receptors (your stakeholders)
– Address them in a non synchronised manner
– With conflicting information
Keep in mind that– Internal and external communication are not distinct anymore
– Public media tend to take over professional media in terms of communication pressure
– Information circuit behave in odd manners• Malfunction appears at the collectors level, vectors/vehicules of
information or data interpretation level
– Usual communication rules become useless
– Communication hits back like a boomerang on those who believe they are not concerned
Key success factors
Always apply the 3 communication rules
– Legitimacy
• Legitimacy gives you the right to communicate
• It derives from a pre existing decision of your target audience
– Credibility
• Credibility gives you the opportunity to deliver a message, to inform and hopefully to persuade
• It comes from a deliberation of your target audience who can grade it (from “incredible” to “clearly demonstrated”)
– Captation
• Captation provides impregnation and memorisation
• It is acknowledged by your target audience
– All of the above build a “communication contract” between you and your target audience
Appropriate information format
Any information you deliver to your target
audience should be:
– Designed for each segment of target audience
– Consistent among segment of target audiences
– Reliable and sourced
– Adapted to media needs and constrains
– Highly condensed and attractive
– Practical allowing immediate use
– Widely disseminated thus redundant
• To limit access time later
Tasks of the specific organisation
A joint team with a relevant partner which– Collect useful information/data to elaborate messages
– Validate available information/data
– identify relevant segment of target audience requiring information
– Assess information needs of each segment of target audience
– Determine communication objectives according to each segment needs
– Build messages according to communication objecitves and target audience segment
– Assess/identify potential positive and negative impact scenarios of messages prior to release
– Evaluate the real impact/interpretation of the message both in time and spatial dimensions
Global overview of available vectors
Sales forces Direct MKT PRLeave
behindMedia
Stakeholders
Evaluation of • source’s intensity
• source’s coherence
• source’s homogeneity
Adherence to messages with trust building or message is rejected
Company’s
spokespersonAuthorities
Working group in charge
of communication
In conclusion
With our combined expertise
– consultancy backed up by a legal assessment
• developed hereafter by Carpentier-avocats
We can help you find the answer
– which is the sole guarantee of your business
continuity
CASE STUDY
Workshop (2 to 3 individuals per group)
Situational analysis
The pandemic grade has been raised to
Level 6 yesterday evening
– In response to this announcement, health
authorities have decided (among others) to close
the Underground until appropriate adaptation have
been achieved to protect the London Population
while commuting
Your assignment
1. Write 5 immediate measures selected from your company’s business continuity plan to match your manpower shortage with your client’s requirements
2. Elaborate the 5 sentences message you want to send to your employees – select appropriate vector
3. Elaborate the 5 sentences message you want to send to your clients – select appropriate vector
4. Elaborate the 5 sentences message you want to send to your suppliers – select appropriate vector
Advices
Inspire yourself with the use of your own
business continuity plan during the current
transportation union plan
If you don’t have such a business continuity
plan, inspire yourself with the decisions that
have been taken yesterday in your company
ENJOY!
Social and Lunch break
CROSSFEEDING OF
CONTRIBUTIONS
Workshop restitution and comments
CARPENTIER, AVOCATS
Lecture from contributor (plenary session)
Q&A SESSION
Carpentier, avocats
ATTENDEES
FEEDBACK/EXPECTATIONS
Questionnaire & interviews
Tell us
What was missing or frustrating from this
conference?
What was in line with your expectations?
What was above your expectations?
What do you expect most for next time?
CHAIRMAN’S CONCLUSION
Dr Jan-Cedric Hansen