sustainable urban developmentsiteresources.worldbank.org/inturbandevelopment/resources/3… ·...

Day1, Plenary 7, No.1Asian Development Bank

1

SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT

ADB Strategy, Approach ADB Strategy, Approach and and Innovative InitiativesInnovative Initiatives

Priyanka SoodPriyanka SoodUrban Development SpecialistUrban Development Specialist

OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

Strategy 2020

DMCs’ Challenges in Urban Development

Sustainable Urban Development Strategy

Sustainable Urban Development In Practice

Select Programs/InitiativesSelect Programs/Initiatives

Select Projects


2

STRATEGY 2020STRATEGY 2020Asia and Pacific Region free of poverty

Approved 2008; sets strategic course for operations to year 20202020

focus on inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration

Core operational areas to include infrastructure, environment including climate change to account for 80% of lending

Private sector development, private sector operations to be 50% of business

DMC URBAN CHALLENGEDMC URBAN CHALLENGEAsia in the beginnings of the urbanization century

Challenge is, in equal measure:

infrastructure ‐ already inadequate; unable to keep pace with population growth

institutional capacity – for planning, management systems, governance, coordination across sectors and administrative boundaries falling behind

Environment ‐ about half of GHG world emissions over next 20 years to come from Asian cities; especially vulnerable to climate change

Urban poverty ‐ 70% of dire poverty world over in Asian cities; if nothing changes urban poor to reach 625 million by 2015

Resource mobilization – funding requirements enormous; unlikely to be met without mobilizing large amounts of private funds


3

DMC URBAN CHALLENGEDMC URBAN CHALLENGEWhy we are where we are

Country urban assessments, strategies and road maps ‐mainly absent; when

available, mainly superficial and elementary

Projects and Programs put together in ad hoc manner little sectorallyProjects and Programs put together in ad‐hoc manner ‐ little sectorally integrated planning and long term view for infrastructure, management

Governance ‐ poor intergovernmental co‐ordination on responsibilities, finances

Outcomes ‐ short term view, temporary, unsustainable

Missing Big Picture ?I.e., Long‐term strategies based on analysis of, g g y

City, mega region needs w.r.t. infrastructure assets and services, institutions and governance structures

Determined by what cities, mega regions should contribute to eco growth, not by current states of serviceability

Over what time and at what cost

URBAN STRATEGYURBAN STRATEGYSustainable urban development embodying Economy, Environment, Equity

Pro‐active rather than reactive ‘Big picture’ focuscomprehensive country assessments, strategies, road maps constantly linked to

environmentally sustainable, urban economic growth objectives

infrastructure and service needs to support mega region growth for 25‐30 yrs

developing technical and managerial capacity for improved urban management

new forms of finance especially through private sector engagement

fl ibl ( h) d ifi b iflexible (enough) to adapt to specific urban circumstances

Supported by appropriate/reformed institutional, governancestructures


4

ECONOMY, ENVIRONMENT, EQUITYECONOMY, ENVIRONMENT, EQUITY

Economy ‐ Urban Region Economic Development support demand‐driven local economic development (attract business and

investment) by taking advantage of economies of scale (accrue from clustering of physical/hard and soft infrastructure)physical/hard and soft infrastructure)

Equity ‐ Inclusive Urban Redevelopment address existing urban context through remedial investment to plug deficiencies in economic, social, environmental infrastructure; address future development through innovative solutions, capital investment necessary to settle growing urban poor populations

Environment ‐ Green Cities address existing urban context through remedial investments in buildings

(retrofitting), utilities (3Rs), incremental low carbon transport; address future development through eco‐industrial parks, integrated planning of transport and land, clean and renewable technologies

OPERATIONALIZING URBAN STRATEGYOPERATIONALIZING URBAN STRATEGY

Through: Innovative Initiatives and ProgramsBacked by: Coherent Financial Support

THE INITIATIVESTHE INITIATIVESA.A.Cities Development Initiative for Asia (CDIA) Cities Development Initiative for Asia (CDIA) (bridging gap between strategic urban development plans and implementation of infrastructure investments through comprehensive upstream support; seen as 'seed capital' for project preparation ‐ in the same way that there is 'seed capital'

for investment/ enterprise development)

A.A.Carbon Market Program (CMP)Carbon Market Program (CMP)(leveraging the growing $126 billion carbon market to supplement limited government resources through upstream and downstream support; ADB Co‐finance)


5

A. CDIA A. CDIA ‐‐ INTERVENTION AREAINTERVENTION AREABridging the ‘Gap’ ‐ b/w infrastructure planning, prioritizing and investment

City

D

evel

opm

ent

Pla

n/S

trate

gy

Infra

stru

ctur

e In

vest

men

t P

rogr

amm

ing

Pre

-Fea

sibi

lity

Stu

dies

/Pro

ject

st

ruct

urin

g

Feas

ibili

ty

Stu

dy

Pro

ject

Im

plem

enta

tion

Ope

ratio

n &

M

aint

enan

ce

Fina

ncin

g A

rrang

emen

ts

Defining the Planning ‐> Infrastructure gap

CDIA Focus Areas

CDIA CDIA –– CITY LEVEL ACTIVITIESCITY LEVEL ACTIVITIES

advisory support for urban infrastructure programming and prioritization

consultancy support for preparation of pre‐feasibility studies for high priority infrastructure investment projects

identification of potential private sector involvement, capital market financing in early stages, and structuring projects for such involvement

local institutional capacity strengthening related to infrastructure investment planning and programming

advisory support to market investment proposals to potential financiers ‐ link cities and their investment proposals to local and international financiers


6

WHY CDIA WORKS WHY CDIA WORKS Convening power ‐ involving, and coordinating with, different government levels and institutions (use ADB catalyzed planning)Country buy‐in; demand driven ‐ linkage to national programs; application based and flexible approachCapacity support ‐ structuring, investment planning support Financing support ‐ linking investment plans/projects to international and local investment funds, private equity, debt, ADB sub‐sovereign; how they might meshLeverage regional (Asia) and international networks ‐ project/program structuring, financing, capacity building

Other Dev Partners Urban Financing Partnership External(KfW, GTZ, NDF, Sida) Facility, UFPF (PPP, Pvt equity, Debt)

(ADB Internal)

B.B.CARBON MARKET PROGRAMCARBON MARKET PROGRAMAssist with tapping carbon markets as co‐financing resource to overcome upfront capital constraints esp. for green urban projects

technical support to developers, sponsors to prepare, implement GHG mitigating projects qualifying under Clean Development Mechanism (Technical Support Facility)

marketing support to governments, developers, investors to ‘securitize’ future carbon credits/cash flows in exchange for upfront capital (Credit Marketing Facility)

Other Dev Partners Future Carbon Fund External(Via FCF ‐ Swedish Energy Agency (ADB as Trustee; ADB Co‐finance) (POSCO, Eneco Energy PMV, Govts of Korea, Finland) Trade)


7

WHY CMP WORKSWHY CMP WORKSPurchase post‐2012 carbon credits from projects proposed today‐ i.e., inducing developing (and developed) economies to invest in low‐carbon alternatives even in absence of a long‐term price signal

Pay upfront to help developing countries reduce the upfront capital constraint of installing clean energy systems

Proposed to project developers in conjunction with ADB financial support and the Technical Support Facility and Credit Marketing Facility

Associated costs and risks are largely reduced due to “piggy back” design dand strategy

– General technical, financial and legal due diligence carried out by ADB main operations to process/approve financing

– CDM specific due‐diligence carried out by CMI

ADB’s Program in the Urban Sector

Examples from South Asia1. Kathmandu Sustainable Urban Transport

Project, Nepal (CDIA, Technical Assistance, and Loan/Grant)

2. Climate-proofing Urban Infrastructure in Khulna Bangladesh (TechnicalKhulna, Bangladesh (Technical Assistance, proposed loans)

Norio SaitoSenior Urban Development SpecialistSouth Asia Department


8

KATHMANDUSUSTAINABLEURBAN

Kathmandu Sustainable Urban Transport Project

TRANSPORTPROJECT(Loan 2656 and Grant 0212)

Kathmandu Mobility - At a Glance

Disorganized Public Transport I it bl Sh i


Demand for Capacity

Unrestricted Vehicle Movement

Inequitable Sharing

Worsening Air Quality196 197 197 192

200

0

50

100

150

200 196 197 197 192200

0

50

100

150

200

16

Chaotic & Congested Traffic

Private Investment: Public Transport


9

The Government of Nepal, with support from ADB, proposed the VISION for Sustainable Urban Transport:

Together with the private sector, and the public in general, the government will :-


1. Encourage people to travel by public transport or foot,

2. Discourage the use of private motorised vehicles, in particular from entering the central area of Kathmandu,

3. Improve movement (all modes), especially within the central area of Kathmandu,

4. Improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions, and4. Improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions, and

5. Improve transport equity.

ADB Assistance:

• $20 million ($10M ADF Loan and $10M ADF Grant)

• Administration of a $2.8 million Grant from GEF (proposed)


Total : $22.8 million

Plus : $7.9 million as counterpart from Government

TOTAL Project: $30.7 million

For 4 components :

A : Improvement of Public Transport

B : Improvement of Traffic Management

C : Improvement of Walkability

D : Improvement of Air Quality Monitoring


10

Vision / Ouptuts Investment Institutional and soft component

1 Improve PT

Implementation of two pilot lines:•Bus stops and lay-bys•Priority route around Thundikel•Terminals in peripheryL / t t i t t t h

•Restructuring + capacity building of DoTM•Reorganization plan of the PT network•Trolley bus reintroduction FS+PD


•Loans/grants to private operators to purchase and maintain electric vehicles

•Trolley-bus reintroduction FS+PD Reports

2. Improve Traffic Management

•Improvement of 14 junctions•Equipment for the MTPD (8 traffic signals; 21 CCTV cameras and control center; 21 radio handsets)

•Capacity development program for the MTPD•Awareness campaign for improved driving behaviors

3. Improve W lk bilit

•Pedestrianization of Heritage routes•Sidewalks improvement in city-center•Upgrading of 2, and construction of 2 new

•PPP advisory support for the redevelopment of the Old Bus parkWalkability pedestrian bridges

•Improvement of the interchange facility and public space on Kanthi Path

redevelopment of the Old Bus park and the construction of parking

4.Improve air quality monitoring

•Equipment of existing stations with solar power back-up systems•Provision of 2 new mobile stations•Equipment for emission/mechanical testing

•Awareness campaign•Data dissemination

MTPD = Metropolitan Traffic Police Division, DoTM = Department of Transport Management

ClimateClimate--proofing Urban Infrastructure for Khulna, proofing Urban Infrastructure for Khulna, Bangladesh (TA 7197Bangladesh (TA 7197--BAN)BAN)

Objectives • Identify and assess impacts of climate• Identify and assess impacts of climate

change on urban drainage system and surface water supply system (for two planned investment projects of ADB –City Region Development Project and Khulna Water Supply Project); and

• Provide adaptation options to climate-proof the proposed investments.


11

South West RegionKCC AreaProject Area

KhulnaKhulna

Approach andMethodology Deriving scenario’s 2030-2050

climate socio-economic development

Development and application of computational framework

Review of available data and information

Surveys to collect add. data and info

Setting objectives, design criteria and evaluation criteria

Ch. 2

Deriving scenario’s 2030-2050

climate socio-economic development

Climate (model) analysis

Climate scenarios A2 – High CO2

Khulna W t

Integrated scenarioslow trend high

Ch. 3

Analysis, incl.:- Base and reference cases - Identif ication and Analysis of

adaptation options- Evaluation of options

Khulna Kh l

Integrated scenarioslow trend high

Ch. 3

analysis

Regional Hydraulic

Model

Urban Drainage

Modelwater levels

Sea level, rainfall, temp

rainfall intensities

flooding extent, depth and duration

Salinity M d l

flows

A2 High CO2emissions (business-as-usual)B1 – Low CO2emissions (sustainable development)

Khulna urban

drainage

Water supply Khulna

workshopsreporting

training

stake-holders

Ch. 7

Ch. 4Ch. 5 Ch. 6

Khulna Water

Supply

Khulna Urban

DrainageCh. 5 Ch. 6

salinities

ModelSea Level RisePlausible High –25 cm in 2030 and 40 cm in 2050Plausible Low –10 cm in 2030 and 20 cm in 2050


12

Climate model• Statistical downscaling was undertaken from a global climate model

(ECHAM5) to a finer resolution (0.5 X 0.5o), because statistical downscaling is preferred for rainfall analyses, the main concern of the study.

• The model outputs were bias corrected for rainfall and temperature.The model outputs were bias corrected for rainfall and temperature.The analyses indicate the following changes:• Average monthly temperature rise by 2050 would vary from +0.5°C

in October to +1.7°C in January and February.• Annual rainfall would increase by about 5% by 2050 (1,860 mm/year

for A2).• Rainfall would increase in the rainy season (month JJAS) by 14%

(~160 mm) but would decrease in the dry season (month DJF) by 45% (~20 mm)

• There would be a significant increase in heavy rainfall events : 50 mm or more rainfall in 6 hours will increase from 4.2 times/year to 5.9 times/year in 2050.

• These results are based on the outcomes of a single climate model. Other models indicate similar changes but there are still large uncertainties about the impact of climate change on rainfall in Bangladesh.

Impact of climate change on water resourcesDecreased river flows (water availability)Increased river salinityDecreased river flows (water availability)Increased river salinity

• Red points are the proposed p p pintake points for surface water supply.


13

Observed Increase in Salinity

(Source: JICA report)

Intake Source Point Haridashpur Mollarhat U/S of Phultala Phultala Daulatpur Labanchara

Indicator

Modelled 95%

dependable flow (m3/s)

Base 33 84 26 48 83 301

Run 3a 31 80 25 44 77 283

Run 5a 30 77 26 45 81 288

Run 7a 31 80 25 44 77 283

Run 9a 30 78 26 44 80 286

Modeled Impacts of Climate Change

Maximum Salinity

Level (ppt Chloride)

Base 0.9 1.8 5.9 7.8 10.1 11.6

Run 3a 1.0 2.1 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.7

Run 5a 1.5 3.0 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.7

Run 7a 1.1 2.3 7.0 8.3 10.3 11.6

Run 9a 1.6 3.0 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.7

No. of days in a year river salinity

> 0.6ppt1

Chl id

Base 0 59 126 145 161 175

Run 3a 6 62 128 145 162 176

Run 5a 16 89 128 149 163 176

Run 7a 7 65 132 152 162 175Chloride Run 7a 7 65 132 152 162 175

Run 9a 25 86 142 155 163 175

No. of days in a year river salinity

> 1.0ppt1

Chloride

Base 0 41 114 134 153 168

Run 3a 0 42 125 135 153 171

Run 5a 2 65 128 137 154 172

Run 7a 0 43 127 139 154 169

Run 9a 4 70 126 140 155 170

Notes: 3a = 2030, A2, High SLR, 5a = 2050, A2, High SLR, 7a = 2030, B1, High SLR, 9a = 2050, B1, High SLRDurations are for 15% exceedance probability. This means that there is a 15% chance that this duration can be exceeded in any year. Another way to view this is that this duration of salinity can occur once in around every 7 years.


14

Adaptation OptionsCore optionsRelocate Mollarhat intake by 4km

• Increase in salinity duration at Mollarhat Relocate Mollarhat intake by 4km

upstream by 2050Increase impounding reservoir size by 12MCM by 2050More abstraction of groundwater (not studied in detail)

by 24 days in 2050

(not studied in detail)

Add-on optionsWater demand managementReduce non-revenue water

Evaluation of Options

Socialb f l ff d ( )Number of people affected (+/‐)

Tariff (water rates)Public acceptanceResettlement requirementImpact on poor

Economic (cost effectiveness analysis)Investment costsOperation and maintenance costs


15


Units Option WS1 Option WS2

Option DescriptionRelocate Mollarhat intake

Expand Impounding ReservoirOption Description Mollarhat intake Reservoir

Economic CriteriaE.1 Investment Costs (Capital

Expenditure)E.1.1 Raw water pipeline

construction (4km by 2050)M Taka 587 a

E.1.2 Impounding reservoir expansion (12MCM by 2050)

M Taka 2,033 b

E.2 O&M CostsE.2.1 Water supply M Taka/yr 1.68 a 1.96 b

a. 2050 Adaptation construction cost is about 4% of total original investment (235 mUSD). Similarly, O&M cost increases by around 1% (assuming cost is 6,000 USD/yr/km).

b. 2050 Adaptation construction cost is about 12% of total original investment (235 mUSD). Similarly, O&M cost increases by around 2% (assuming cost is 2.3 USD/yr/m3).


Units Option WS1 Option WS2

Option DescriptionRelocate Mollarhat intake

Expand Impounding ReservoirOption Description Mollarhat intake Reservoir

Social CriteriaS.1 Estimated Number of people

affected# 16 Households More than 20

HouseholdsS.2 Tariff (water rates) +/- No issue for

Mollarhat. Tariff will increase for Khulna residents.

Free volume of minimum requirements of water for local people

S.3 Public acceptance +/- Positive Need to manage S. ub c ccep ce / os ve eed o gesupport

S.4 Resettlement requirement Yes/No No YesS.5 Impact on poor +/- Poor people likely to

be displaced. S.6 Overall health impact +/- Positive Positive


16

Impact of climate change on city drainage

Increased rainfall intensityyIncreased outfall water level due to SLR

Urban floods (waterlogging) will be more serious with

li t hclimate change.


17

Base: Do nothing scenario

2050: Do nothing scenarioWith climate change

A2 + High SLR


18

ScenariosFF F0 F1 F2 F3

Damaging Water Depth

91 180

Percent of Area Water Logged in Khulna City with Climate Change

0 - 10 cm 11- 30 cm 31-60 cm 61-90 cm91-180

cm F1+F2+F3

Base 10 yr 64 7 26 3 0 29

Base 5-yr 81 7 11 1 0 11

2030-10yr 60 7 28 5 0 34

2030-5yr 71 8 19 2 0 21

2050-10yr 42 3 23 28 3 54

2050-5yr 58 10 28 4 0 32

Adaptation Options

• Khulna urban drainage– Core options (combination of the below)

Wid /d d i• Widen/deepen drains• Lay new drains• River dredging• Sluice gate

– Add-on optionsG d lid t t• Good solid waste management

• Awareness and education campaigns• Strict implementation of building codes and urban

planning measures• Improved prediction and early warning system


19

Evaluation Framework• Social

N b f l ff t d (+/ )– Number of people affected (+/-)– Public acceptance– Resettlement requirement– Overall health impact

• Economic (cost-benefit analysis)– Investment costs (base improvement first,

adaptation measures next)– Operation and maintenance costs– Damage costs and benefits

• Costs of adaptation (Realistic Scenario)5 Year Return Period 10 Year Return Period


Design Event Investment Cost O&M CostInvestment

Cost O&M Cost

Tk (Mil)

USD (Mil)

Tk (Mil)/yr

USD (Mil)/yr

Tk (Mil)

USD (Mil)

Tk (Mil)/yr

USD (Mil)/yr

Base Improvement 493 7 751 11

2030 Ad t ti 64 0 9 24 0 4 39 0 6 15 0 2Adaptation 64 0.9 24 0.4 39 0.6 15 0.2

2050 Adaptation 1,312 19 101 1.4 1,167 17 89 1.3

Note:Adaptation investment cost for climate change is on top of base improvement cost.Similarly, adaptation O&M cost is on top of annual costs without climate change.


20

Base: Improved drainage system

Design Criteria:Design Criteria: Keep 80% of area

flood-free (less than 30 cm in depth) in each ward of the city

for a 10-year return period

fl d

Estimated investment cost:

$11 millionflood.

2050: CC with improved drainage

A2 + High SLR


21

2050: CC, with improvement and additional adaptation

A2 + High SLR

Estimated investment cost

(incremental cost): $17 million

Design Event Measures

FF0-10

cm

F011- 30

cm

F131-60

cm

F261-90

cm

F391-180

cm

Damaging Water Depth

F1+F2+F3

Percent of City Area Water Logged with Climate Change

2030 A2, 10

year

None 60 7 28 5 0 33

Base_Improvem. 79 7 13 1 0 14

Base_Imprv+Adap 82 7 10 1 0 11

2050 A2, 10

year

None 42 3 23 28 3 54

Base_Improvem. 64 8 22 7 0 29

Base_Imprv+Adap 80 6 11 3 0 14


22

Economic Analyses

• Benefit-Cost ratio (Realistic Scenario)Evaluation of Options

– 40 years cash flow– 10% discount rate

Design EventNPV (m USD)

5 Yr return period 10 Yr return Period

Benefits 24.5 31.6

Costs 8.0 6.1

B‐C RATIO 3.1 5.2

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is 35% and 111%, respectively, for the investment to meet the design criteria for 5‐year and 10‐year return periods. (If base improvement cost is added, IRR is 13.6% and 14.5%, respectively.)

Climate change is likely to impact Khulna’s water supply by:increasing salinity levels; and increasing the duration of salinity above 1 0 ppt Chloride (drinking

Conclusions

increasing the duration of salinity above 1.0 ppt Chloride. (drinking water quality standard in coastal areas in Bangladesh)

Proposed water supply project can be made more resilient to climate change (climate proofed) by relocating the water intake point further upstream or by increasing the impounding reservoir size. Climate change will likely aggravate Khulna’s urban flooding by increasing inundation: depths; areas; and durations. R ili f th b d i t ill b t th d bResilience of the urban drainage system will be strengthened by

increasing conveyance capacity of primary drains; andincreasing outfall capacities of several outlet structures.


23

Conclusions (cont’d)

• Significant uncertainties in future scenariosg– Climate change projections, SLR– Socio-economic development of Khulna – Future land use pattern– Damage functions (which would change over time)– Discharge from the Ganges and Brahmaputra (human

intervention included)– Gorai river dredging

Further Thoughts on Adaptation

• Phased-development to strengthen resilience• Strengthening monitoring (salinity, rainfall, water g g g ( y, ,

discharge etc.) for model recalibration• Assess nature of investment/adaptation

measures(i) invest later if incremental investment will not result in additional costs(ii) invest now if benefits are expected even ( ) punder the current climate(iii) invest now in “no-regret” measures (most of the add-on options)(iv) invest now if the potential impacts are catastrophic and/or irreversible(v) invest later if the investment can be made


24

Thank You!

sustainable urban developmentsiteresources.worldbank.org/inturbandevelopment/resources/3… ·...

Documents