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Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering Center

Energy Systems in Sustainable Future

Dwindling reserves versus worldwide growth in demand will lead to energy prices beyond consumer’s ability to pay - leads to political tension and violence.

Conventional oil and gas reserves will probably be exhausted between 2030 and 2050.

Coal is the worst possible fossil fuel (most polluting of the fossil fuels and the one that produces the greatest amount of the greenhouse gas CO2 per unit energy), but the world has at least a 150 year supply of coal.

Conclusion: Sustainable future is not possible if we continue to rely on fossil fuel for energy. Therefore, a massive and immediate shift towards renewable sources is inevitable.

Summary from Lecture 1 - Fossil Fuel Future


Energy has strong relationship with three pillars of sustainable development.

Sustainability requires secure, reliable and affordable supply of energy.

Sustainable energy future is not static - it must be continuously redefined and rebalanced with new technical solutions and technologies.

Sustainability demands that we seek to change present trends.

Change the structure of energy sector, behavior in our societies and economics

Energy and Sustainability

Challenge: To fuel worldwide economic growth with secure and reliable energy supply without despoiling our environment

Source: IEA statement on sustainable development at the world summit on sustainable development, Johannesburg, 2002

Sustainable development

Economy

Environment Society


Taxonomy of Sustainable Development Goals

Source: National Research Council, 1999


Per Capita Energy Consumption and HDI

HDI: Human development index - a composite measure of development based indicators: life expectancy, educational level and per capita gross domestic product. Each data point corresponds to a country. Modest increase in PCEC can lead to marked improvements in the quality of life in the developing nations.

Source: Alan D. Pasternak, Global energy futures and human development: A frame work for analysis, UCRL-ID-140773, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, U.S. DOE, 2003


0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100 1000Energy Consumption Per Capita ('000 BTU/person)

Poverty

Affluence

Burkina Faso

United Kingdom

Mexico

Bangladesh

China

Poland

South Korea

UnitedStates.

FranceJapan

El Salvador Russia

Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2; Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars. Updated May 2002

Per Capita Energy Consumption and GDP


Energy Usage Sectors

• Residential

• Commercial

• Industry

Iron and steel, Chemicals and petrochemicals,

Cement and other industries

• Transportation

Road, Rail and aviation


Energy Sources

• Oil

• Coal

• Natural Gas

• Nuclear

• Biomass

• Renewable Energy

Wind, Hydro, Solar Etc.


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Per

cent

of T

otal

Ene

rgy

Pro

duce

d

Wood

Coal

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

NuclearHydroNon-hydro Renewables

Energy Production and Fuel Type


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation

Qua

ds/Y

r

Nuclear

Renew ables

Petroleum -- Imported

Petroleum -- Domestic

Nat. Gas -- Imported

Nat. Gas -- Domestic

Coal

US Primary Energy Consumption by Sector - 1999


USA

Energy Use by Sector

India


Energy Consumption by Sector

Source: IEA Key World Statistics - 2003

Sector China (%) United States (%) India (%)Industry 40 25 27

Transportation 11 40 9Agriculture 3 1 2

Commercial &public services

14 13 1

Residential 29 17 58Non energy use 3 4 3

1 Mtoe: amount of energy released when one million tones of crude oil is burnt=41.868x1015 J


Energy Consumption by Fuel Type


Fuel Consumption by Sector

Oil

Gas

Coal


World Electricity Consumption by Sector


2001

2010

2015

2020

2025

0 20 40 60 80 100

Percent of Total

OilNatural GasCoalNuclearRenewables

History

Projections

Energy Use for Electricity Generation


Energy Consumption for Electricity Generation


Retail Prices ($) in selected Countries

Country Heavy Fuel Oil for Industry (tonne)

Automotive Diesel oil (liter)

Unleaded premium (liter)

ElectricityFor Industry (kWh)

ElectricityFor Households (kWh)

Natural gas for Industry (107 kcal GCV*)

USA 174.48 0.380 0.381 0.0470 0.0830 176.27

France 189.70 0.665 1.033 0.0368 0.1045 187.27

Japan 219.42 0.518 0.829 0.1426 0.2144 406.4

India 309.58 0.416 0.613 0.0801 0.0388 ------

*GCV: Gross Caloric Value


US Energy Consumption

Effects of conservation and improvements in energy efficient

consumer and industrial and transportation sectors


Evolution of Energy Intensity

Source: Prof. Daniel Kammen, UC Berkeley


Rate of Change in World Energy


World Primary Energy

Source: Arthur Rosenfeld, commissioner, California Energy Commission


Role of Technology

Source: Arthur Rosenfeld, commissioner, California Energy Commission


Lighting Efficiency

Source: Secondary energy infobook, The need project 2005.


Lighting Technology Evolution

Source: Light Emitting Diode (LED) technology and its impact on DLP television applications By DJ Segler, Texas Instruments Incorporated, DLP Products, March 2006.

Future Lighting

http://i.cmpnet.com/digitaltvdesignline/2006/03/LED4.jpg


Reduction in Energy Use 1973-2002 Industrial Sector

Example: 15.18 kWh/Kg to convert Bauxite to aluminum



Reduction in Energy Use 1973-2002 Transportation Sector



Urban Population Growth

Annual increments of the world population and the urban population


Rising net income will propel consumer demand for automobiles -Effects oil consumption

Electricity Consumption:

Only 50% rural households have access in India

Power for all by 2012 in India

More money - more travel everywhere

Developing World

Sustainable Energy Science and Engineering CenterM

il lio

ns o

f Ba r

rels

per

Day

Actual: Annual Energy Review 2000 Tbls 1.2, 5.1 and 5.12Forecast: Annual Energy Outlook 2002 Tbls 7 and 11Split between Autos and Lt Truck: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 21 Tbl 2.6 Updated April 2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

30 Domestic Petroleum Usage

Today

US Petroleum use in Transportation


Domestic Oil Scenario

The United States produces 21% of Gross World Product

Uses 26% of the World’s oil

Produces 9%

Owns 2-3%


1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Mill

ions

of B

a rre

ls p

er D

ay

Domestic Petroleum Usage

Today

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

US Petroleum use in Transportation Sector


World Oil Consumption


Demand for Oil in China


Saudi Arabia 26%Iraq 11%Kuwait 10%Iran 9%UAE 8%Venezuela 6%Russia 5%Mexico 3%Libya 3%China 3%Nigeria 2%U.S. 2%

U.S. 26%Japan 7%China 6%Germany 4%Russia 3%S. Korea 3%France 3%Italy 3%Mexico 3%Brazil 3%Canada 3%India 3%

Have Oil Use Oil

Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), August 2002

Oil Dependency

Oil supplies are more concentrated and less secure


Summary

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation

Qua

ds/Y

rNuclear

Renew ables

Petroleum -- Imported

Petroleum -- Domestic

Nat. Gas -- Imported

Nat. Gas -- Domestic

Coal

Immediate shift in ways to generate electricity and fuel type for transportation

Lead to reductions in coal and petroleum use


1970 20201970

Energy Consumption and Generation


CO2 Emissions


Clean Fuel Source: Hydrogen


Specific Fuel Energy


The Electronic Way of Life

Future exponential growth of electric energy demand for

ComputersMobile cell phonesHome managementInformation technologyAviation securityHomeland defense


Hydrogen Fuel - Electricity Demand

Electrolysis - 50 kWh/kg (commercial systems)With performance improvements: 40 kWh/kgElectric Energy Requirement for Large-Scale Production of Hydrogen Fuel

Business as Usual scenario

20 x 1012 kWh

Source: Paul Kruger, www.sciencedirect.com, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2005

http://www.sciencedirect.com/


magr: mean annual growth rate

BaU: Business as Usual

World Hydrogen Fuel Energy Requirement




Total World Power Capacity Requirement




Transportation and Commercial energy usage are expected to increase around the world.

Transportation (especially personal) is expected to grow rapidly in developing countries and the proportion of energy in the residential sector will fall.

Electricity usage is expected to grow world wide with developingnations taking the lead.

Technology, economic conditions, energy prices and government legislation will affect the long term predictions.

Energy Demand Scenarios


Renewable is used to describe the resource itself.

Sustainable is used to describe how the resource is used.

A resource is considered renewable when it is rechargedduring exploitation

A resource is considered sustainable if, using adequateprecautions, it can be exploited without creatingproblems for future generations

Renewable vs Sustainable

Source: Geothermal energy by Mary H. Dickson & Mario Fanelli, 2003.


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