Jim Skea

Research DirectorUK Energy Research Centre

North-East Forum on Climate Change Workshop

Northumbria University

8 October 2008

Sustainable Energy

Temperature (Northern Hemisphere) CO2 Concentrations

1000 Years of CO2 and Global Warming

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)

300

500

400

600

180

200

220

240

260

280

Temp. in F°

CO

2 Concentration

After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns

Today’s CO2 Concentration

CO

2 [pp

mv]

Projected Impacts of Climate Change

Source: Stern Review

Illustrative emissions paths to stabilise at 550ppm CO2

Source: Meinshausen (2006)

UK carbon policy framework

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

HISTORIC DATA

CURRENT POLICY

POLICY TO BE DETERMINED

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) will advise government on how the UK can meet its emissions reductions goals

Advise on 15 years of carbon budgets

Advise on use of trading & credits

Advise on 2010 target’s feasibility

2008-2012

2013-2017

2018-2022

By 1 December 2008……taking into account a range of factors… …the Committee needs to find

the optimal emissions reduction pathway to 2050

• Scientific knowledge

• Technology

• Economic circumstances

• Fiscal circumstances

• Social circumstances

• Energy policy

• International circumstances

CO2

1990 2050

60%?

Review of the 2050 60% reduction target

Generic options for reducing CO2

efficiency

renewables

nuclear

fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage

Energy Efficiency

vast range of technical approaches… buildings (residential and commercial) appliances cars aircraft ships industrial processes

in many areas, the challenge is encouraging the uptake of existing technology, not so much developing new technologies

but new technology has promise - especially in surface transport

the “rebound effect” – tendency to use growing income on energy intensive things at the margin (gadgets, flights)

Nuclear power

different perceptions in different countries operating performance and construction record has

improved in last decade……. especially in Far East

push in several countries to speed up planning and regulatory approval

progress on radioactive waste a price for carbon helps nuclear economics and finance critical not just cost but risk – nuclear is a riskier investment

than gas in a liberalised market

Carbon capture and storage

Peterhead power station, Scotland

Source: BP

UK carbon capture and storage competition

Post-combustion technology (retrofittable) Full chain: capture, transportation, storage 90% capture on 300-400 MW capacity Demonstration plant in place by 2014 Commercial deployment by 2020? Four pre-qualified bidders

BP Alternative Energy International E.ON UK/Arup/EPRI/Fluor/MHI/Penspen/Tullow Oil Peel Power/Dong Energ/Senergy Alternative

Energy/Atkins-Boreas/Mott MacDonald Scottish Power Generation/Marathon Oil/Aker Clean

Carbon/Aker Solutions

Renewables

Growth of renewable electricity in Europe

Source: International Energy Agency

Potential scenario to reach 15% renewable energy by 2020 in UK

But new sources of hydrocarbons….

The lifestyle issue….

Emission Reduction Options: BLUE Map Scenario

Source: International Energy Agency

Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for CO2 Reduction

Source: International Energy Agency

Recent trends in UK energy R&D spend

Source: International Energy Agency

Funding for UK Energy R&D is Rising

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

$M (

2005

pri

ces

and

exch

ange

rat

es)

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

(bu

dget

ed)

2007

(pl

anne

d)

2008

(pl

anne

d)

Source: IEA (2000-2005)

Recent trends in UK renewable energy R&D

UK Energy RDD&D support

Research Councils Energy Programme

~£90m pa

UKERC

SUPERGEN (Sustainable Power Generation) initiative

Towards a Sustainable Energy Economy (TSEC) Programme

Carbon Vision Programme (mainly buildings)

Fusion Programme

Research Training and Capacity Building

SUPERGEN

RENEWABLES Marine Energy Wind energy Photovoltaic materials Excitonic solar cells Biomass, biofuels and energy crops

HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS Hydrogen energy Fuel cells Biofuel cells

NETWORKS Future network technologies Highly distributed power systems Energy infrastructure

OTHER Energy storage Conventional power plant lifetime extension

Towards a Sustainable Energy Programme

CROSS-DISCIPLINARY CONSORTIA BIOSYS (bio-energy systems) Carbon Capture and Storage

NUCLEAR Keeping the nuclear option open (KNOO) Sustainable nuclear

SOCIAL SCIENCE GROUPS RESOLVE - Research on lifestyles, values and energy

consumption (Surrey) Electricity Policy Research Group (Cambridge) Transitions to a sustainable energy economy (SPRU,

Sussex)

1. Extending the Resource Base - reducing environmental footprint of fossil fuel and mineral use and identifying novel fuel sources;

2. Meeting the Renewables Challenge - optimising environmental gains from extraction of energy from renewable sources;

3. Water-Soil Life Support System - integrated approaches to sustain and improve water and soil quality;

4. Valuing Environmental Services - innovative methods to achieve parity for environmental services alongside economic indicators

NERC Sustainable Use of Natural Resources Theme: Four challenges

1. Predicting the environmental outcomes of natural resource use for renewable and non-renewables energy using a systems approach

2. Developing an integrated water-soil life support system

3. Bringing environmental valuation into mainstream thinking

 

NERC Sustainable Use of Natural Resources Theme: Three priority areas

What Is UKERC?

The UK Energy Research Centre is the focal point for UK research on sustainable energy. It takes an independent, whole-system approach, drawing on

engineering economics physical environmental social sciences.

Phase I: 2004-2009Phase II: 2009-2014

AdvisoryBoard

SupervisoryBoard

Demand Reduction

EnergyInfrastructureand Supply

Future SourcesOf Energy

Energy SystemsAnd Modelling

Environmental Sustainability

Materials forAdvanced Energy

Systems

Technology Policy and

Assessment

TheMeeting Place

Research Atlas

UKERC Structure: Phase 1 2004-2009

John Loughhead, executive director

Professor Jim Skea, research director

National EnergyResearch Network

Research themes

Fun

ction

s

Advisory Board

Graeme Sweeney, CEO, Shell Renewables

Philip Sellwood, chief executive

Chris Anastasi, senior environmental advisor

Diane Urge-Vorsatz, director, PhD programme, Central European University

Arnulf Grubler, snr research scholar, Int’l Inst for Applied Systems Analysis

Philip Wolf, chief executive, Renewable Energy Assoc

Doug Parr, chief scientist

Duncan Botting, VP

Nick Hartley, senior advisor

Tom Delay, CEO, Carbon Trust

John Scott, technical director

Peter Waller, head of energy industries and technologies

Anthony White, director

Mike Hulme, executive director

Allan Asher, CEO

Prof Jane Summerton, Linkoping University

Henry Derwent, director

Richard Bellingham, head of energy policy

Fiona Harvey, environmental correspondent

Hanns-Joachim Neef, Juelich Research Centre

ResearchSupervisory

Board

DirectorateAdvisoryBoard

ResearchCommittee

Research coordinationand integration

CapacityBuilding

KnowledgeExchange

Energydemand

Energy andEnvironment

Energysupply

Energysystems

TPA

Research Challenges for Sustainable Energy

de-carbonisation of electricity renewables carbon capture and storage

built environment existing buildings new build vehicle efficiency spatial planning and transport

transport sector improved efficiency biofuels new vectors – hybridisation, electric, hydrogen changing patterns of transport behaviour

Research Challenges for this Workshop

1. reducing the carbon footprint of existing housing

2. low-zero carbon new build in the housing and commercial sectors

3. building sustainability into new development through spatial planning, transport requirements

4. the role of renewables (solar thermal, heat pumps, bio-energy, PV) at the household and community level

5. engaging the public in climate change action

6. the respective roles of utilities, local authorities and housing associations

UK Energy Research Centre

www.ukerc.ac.uk