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Mainstreaming SustainabilityMainstreaming Sustainability
Sustainability Outlook 2030:Sustainability Outlook 2030:
Environmental Future for IsraelEnvironmental Future for Israel
The Environmental Policy Center
Joint project with the Ministry for Environmental Protection
Supported by a philanthropic fund
Challenges for (longChallenges for (long--term) term)
policypolicy--makingmaking
�� Sometimes, we wait too long for evidence to justify action Sometimes, we wait too long for evidence to justify action (climate change, hazardous substances)(climate change, hazardous substances)
�� Sometimes, we act too quickly on new opportunities and oversee Sometimes, we act too quickly on new opportunities and oversee spillspill--over effects (biofuels)...over effects (biofuels)...
�� ... because attention is fragmented ... because attention is fragmented -- government is coherent in government is coherent in its parts, but not as a whole.its parts, but not as a whole.
�� Often, we approach the future on the basis of our experiences inOften, we approach the future on the basis of our experiences inthe past: policies function in the short, but not in the long ruthe past: policies function in the short, but not in the long run n (ecosystems)(ecosystems)
EEA EEA ““BLOSSOMBLOSSOM”” project 2008project 2008--
Agenda of the Ministry for Environmental ProtectionAgenda of the Ministry for Environmental Protection
Environmental
media
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Water
River
reclamation
* * * * * * *
Effluent
standards
* * * *
Water for
nature
* *
Pollution of
aquifers
* * * *
Air
Industry * * * * * * *
Transport * * * * * * * * *
Energy * * * * *
Climate change * * * *
Agendas of several major environmental NGOs in Israel 2007Agendas of several major environmental NGOs in Israel 2007--1010
2010200920082007
-SPNI-SPNISPNISPNIOpen spaces
SPNI- - - Biodiversity
- - IUED: Kinneret ()SPNI :Cliff shores
IUEDIUEDIUEDIUEDClean air/Climate change
IUED/SPNI- - - Planning reform
- SPNI/
ZALUL
- - Water
- - SPNISPNITransportation/Highway
6
IUEDIUEDIUEDIUED Recycling/Waste
Life and EnvironmentLife and EnvironmentEnvironmental justice
IUEDIUEDEnforcement
GLOBAL OUTLOOKS TO 2030
Sustainability OUTLOOK 2030 : Project schemeSustainability OUTLOOK 2030 : Project scheme
Review existing policy
packages
Experts
Indicators
Existing indicators
(CBS-issued July 2010)
(JIIS-November 2010)
New Indicators
(CBS through MOE)
(Beyond GDP)
Wellbeing Resource Capital
Scenarios
Revision of
scenarios BAU + 4
alternatives
Realistic
visions
Implications
for policy
intervention
4 alternative
scenarios 1st
draft
Policy packages
Expert
documents
Workshop 1: Expert
discussion on BAU scenario
Workshop 2: Expert
discussion on 4
alternative scenarios
Workshop 3: Expert
discussion on realistic
visions
Review
existing
scenarios
Issues identification
Opportunities and risks
Resiliencies and Vulnerability
3 Workshops: Expert
discussion on points for
intervention +policy
packages
Format for
expert
opinions
Identified +additional
experts
Business as usual
(BAU) scenario
Increasing pressures 2020Increasing pressures 2020
floorspace
20 m2 pc
40 m2 pc
Carownership
1000- ל300
1000- ל450
energy
42,678
95,580
Million kw/h
7million
8 millionpopulation
1975- 1.2
2000- 2.2
Km pcwaste
Natural Resource DepletionNatural Resource Depletion
space
water
היקף השטח הפתוח הנגרע בכל מחוז
בין השנים 1998-2003
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
דרוםירושליםתל אביבמרכז חיפהצפון
מחוזות משרד הפנים
ם)ונד) חטש
דלתא בין השנים 1998-2003
coast
Biodiversity
Openlandscape
Risk ManagementRisk Management
�� Climate changeClimate change
�� Seismic Seismic
�� RadonRadon
�� FloodsFloods
�� TsunamiTsunami
• Hazardous substances
• Radiation
• Coastal erosion
• Subsidence
• Forest fires
Yesterday, Today and TomorrowYesterday, Today and Tomorrow1990 1990 –– 2010 2010 -- 20302030
Resource baseResource base
Air qualityAir quality
�� Nox and Sox per person and Nox and Sox per person and per unit GDPper unit GDP
�� Particles PM 10Particles PM 10
Climate changeClimate change
�� Greenhouse gas emissionsGreenhouse gas emissions
WaterWater
�� Groundwater salinityGroundwater salinity
Spatial land useSpatial land use
Biological diversityBiological diversity
Driving forcesDriving forcesEconomicEconomic
�� GDP ppGDP pp
�� Food expenditure per docileFood expenditure per docile
EnergyEnergy
�� Energy consumption pp and Energy consumption pp and per unit GDPper unit GDP
TransportTransport
�� Car ownershipCar ownership
�� Kms travelled ppKms travelled pp
Household consumptionHousehold consumption
�� Domestic water consumption Domestic water consumption pppp
�� Domestic waste ppDomestic waste pp
Rise in GDP pp 1995-2008 ($ current value weighted PPP)
מגמות בהכנסה פנויה לפי עשירונים (משקי בית)
2,2
35
2,5
13
3,2
56
3,6
80
4,4
81
5,5
43
7,4
61
2,7
55
3,6
86
4,3
92
5,4
81
6,5
20
7,8
12 9,2
54
11
,46
1
3,5
21
4,5
37 5,9
09 7,2
65 9
,06
8
10
,18
9 12
,43
1
15
,79
0
1,8
01
1,4
86
86
4
17
,64
1
1,5
90
24
,51
5
1,6
83
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
עשירון
ח"ש
1992-93
2000
2008
Trends in income available after expenditure on food according to decentile (household)
92%89% 89% 88% 88% 88%
89% 89%
87% 87%85% 85% 85% 85% 84%
82%
77%75%
8%11% 11% 12% 12% 12%
11% 11%
13% 13%15% 15% 15% 15% 16%
18% 18% 19%
6% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
התפלגות המים המופקים בישראל לפי מקורות
מים שפירים
מי קולחין
מי התפלה
Trends in water supply by type and quantity
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ת שנמי נושי
1995
(%)
ג "שינויים בצריכת מים ביתית ליחידת תמ
ג"תמ
ג"צריכה ביתית לתמ
ג"צריכה בתעשיה לתמ
ג"צריכה חקלאית לתמ
Trends in domestic water consumption in relation to GDP
צריכת מים עירונית לנפש בחלוקה לאשכולות חברתיים כלכליים
אשכול 1
אשכול 5
אשכול 10
ממוצע
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
שפלנק "מ
Urban water consumption pp according to socio-economic level of LA
כמות הפסולת לנפש לפי אשכולות חברתיים כלכליים
אשכול 1
אשכול 5
אשכול 10
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
םיולש פלנג "ק
Waste pp according to the socio economic level of the LA
תחזית לשנת 2030 במגמת "עסקים כרגיל"
4.50
אספקה ראשונית לנפש 3.08
צריכה סופית לנפש
0.114
אספקה ראשונית ליחידת תמ"ג
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
שפלנן "טעש
0
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
0.125
0.15
איקרימאר לדו 1
00
0ל-ן "טעש
Extrapolation of energy trends BAU scenario
ScenariosScenarios
UK Environment AgencyUK Environment Agency
Scenarios are tools for thinking about the future based on four Scenarios are tools for thinking about the future based on four assumptions: assumptions:
�� The future is unlike the past, and is shaped by human choice andThe future is unlike the past, and is shaped by human choice and action action
�� The future cannot be foreseen, but exploring the future can infoThe future cannot be foreseen, but exploring the future can inform present rm present
decisions decisions
�� There are many possible futures, scenarios map a There are many possible futures, scenarios map a ‘‘possibility spacepossibility space’’
�� Scenario development involves rational analysis and subjective jScenario development involves rational analysis and subjective judgment.udgment.’’
The use of exploratory scenarios approaches should be consideredThe use of exploratory scenarios approaches should be considered when: when:
�� The future is uncertain The future is uncertain
�� The ability to adapt to future change is restrained or if adjustThe ability to adapt to future change is restrained or if adjustments carry ments carry
the risk of negative effects over the longer term (e.g. technolothe risk of negative effects over the longer term (e.g. technological gical ‘‘locklock--inin’’). ).
�� There are opportunities for positive gains from pursuing There are opportunities for positive gains from pursuing ‘‘robust strategiesrobust strategies’’
Global ScenariosGlobal ScenariosTellus InstituteTellus Institute
Conventional WorldsConventional Worlds
�� Market Forces Market Forces –– risks risks
of marketof market--centered centered
developmentdevelopment
�� Policy Reform Policy Reform ––
redirecting growth by redirecting growth by
governmentgovernment
Alternative VisionsAlternative Visions
�� Fortress World Fortress World –– an an
authoritarian pathauthoritarian path
�� Great Transitions Great Transitions –– a a
sustainable sustainable
civilizationcivilization
Scenario 1markets
first
Scenario 2 security
first
Scenario 4Technolog
y first
Scenario 3 governance
first
Ecological disaster
Political stability in
ME
Cooperative sovereignty
Technological breakthrough
Globalization of trade
External driving forces
Scenario building
Baseline scenario
BAU
Realistic vision (floor and ceiling)
Effective and efficient intervention
Instruments for
intervention
Analysis of scenarios to
identify where
similar and where
different
Intervention points and instruments
goals options evaluation
Policy packagesPolicy packages
�� Combination of coherent policy Combination of coherent policy
instruments for reaching the same goalinstruments for reaching the same goal
�� Cancellation of opposing instrumentsCancellation of opposing instruments
�� Promotion of supporting instrumentsPromotion of supporting instruments
�� Cancellation of ineffective instrumentsCancellation of ineffective instruments
�� Promotion of acceptable instruments to Promotion of acceptable instruments to
politicians, interest groups and publicpoliticians, interest groups and public
�� Reduction of transaction costsReduction of transaction costs