Sustainability of Solar Mini-Grids in Nigeria

Adedoyin Adebodun ADELEKE (Matriculation No.: 189186)

+234 (0) 703-929-8938 | adedoyin.ade@gmail.com

Centre for Petroleum, Energy Economics and Law University of Ibadan

Ibadan, Nigeria

Supervisor: Dr. C.J. Diji

OutlineIntroduction Policy FrameworkLiterature ReviewMethodologyAnalysis and ResultConclusion and RecommendationEfforts for Implementation,

Impacts and Future Studies

Driver of the economy- Energy-based parameters have been used as development indicators

Evolution driven by innovation – Fossil Fuel◦ Impact of human-induced GHG emissions ◦Non-Renewability ◦ Improved Energy Access

Energy Access + Threat of Climate Change = Renewable Energy(RE)◦Preferences defer with countries (Developed VS

Developing)

Introduction

RE Development in Nigeria

Despite high RE resource vis-à-vis the high energy deficiency, RE uptake is low.

Solar PV is most adopted (28MW in 2015)◦ 3.5kWh/m2/day (coastal) to 9kWh/m2/day (northern

boundaries)

Problem Statement & Objective

PV appropriateness is proven – Success stories

Need to examine the high rate of failure on solar PV systems in Nigeria

Focus: solar mini-grids

Annual & Cumulative Installed PV capacity in 2014

Solar Potential: Nigeria Vs European countries

Policy FrameworkTo guide roadmap to RE development: REMP:

◦ 1st Draft (2005): Government's agenda for RE development: Improve Energy Security & mitigate climate change

◦ Achievement: Increased awareness of RETs & associated socio-economic benefits

1MW PV installed capacity (2010)

◦ Basis for 2nd Draft (2012): critics, new local & international policy guidelines, concision and precision Targeted at harnessing RE potentials Stipulates RE targets and timeline in short, medium & long terms with timeline Fiscal (tax holidays, reduction in profit tax and import duty) and Financial

Incentives for organisations dealing in RE Profiles potential risk factors and emphasis risk identification, analysis and

mitigation

Nigeria’s Solar Energy Targets (based on the energy requirements for attainment of the Vision 20:2020)

Note: Short term: 2013-2015 Medium term: 2016-2020 Long term: 2021-2030

Source: Renewable Energy Master Plan (ECN&UNDP, 2012)Total PV installed capacity: 1MW (2010)- Sambo (2010); 15MW in 2013 (REMP, 2012) and 28MW in 2015 (ODI et al, 2016)

Policy FrameworkNREEEP-(Draft-2014, Approved - 2015)

◦ NEP (Draft-1992; Approved-2003): Incorporates issues on RE and N-RE, appropriate technologies and practices for EE

◦ NREEEP - Majorly an extraction from NEP as a separate policy document RE & EE to meet investors’ needs

◦ Similar to those of other developing countries, NREEEP is targeted 1st at Energy Security unlike in developed countries

◦ Highlight barriers to RE development & strategic plans to overcome them

Aimed at RE generation for electricity to meet or exceeds ECOWAS regional target

It empowers NREAP and NEEAP designed to implement NREEEP

Solar Target: (National energy mix)◦3% in 2020 and 6% in 2030 maximum –

National Energy mix◦Focus: rural and off-grid communities through

solar PV and thermal systems◦Public enlightenment, R&D, capacity building

and Incentives

Policy Framework

Summary of RE Targets (based on the energy requirements for attainment of the Vision

20:2020)

Source: National renewable energy and energy efficiency policy (NREEEP) Draft

Feed-In-Tariff(Tariffs differ with Technologies & Project size)

Literature ReviewGlobal RE resource enough to meet global

energy demand (Moomaw, 2002 & Philibert, 2011)

RE share of global energy generation 13.2% in 2002 and 22.8% in 2013

40GW PV capacity was installed in 2014

Solar PV contributes 0.9% to global electricity production in 2014

Wide gap between RE resources and their uptake is thought-proving

Literature Review

Figure 3.1: Solar PV Global Capacity, 2004 – 2014 ( Source: (REN21 2015))

S/N

Authour

Objectives/Methodolog

y

Key Findings

1 ECORYS (2010)

Literature review, Questionnaire and interviews

Identified 9 challenges to RE electricity in 27 EU countries

Grouped based on level of severity: Most severe: Administrative, Grid

connection, Poor awareness Medium severity: Barriers to build

environment, program with emerging RE gas network and Poor qualification training for installers, Technical specifications often cause trade barriers or full market blockage

Least severe: Lack of promotional strategies of EE appliances, poor implementation of EE programmes

2 Pirlogea (2009)

 Review of Literature

Identified that barriers to investment in RE in Romania are multidimensional: technological, market administrative and economic

Recommended various policy measures to eliminate them

Literature Review

Challenges of Global RE DevelopmentS/N Authour Objectives/

MethodologyKey Findings

3 Moomaw (2002) Factors responsible for the declining share of the rapidly growing global market for RETs in North America (USA, Canada and Mexico)

• High cost of long transmission of wind power constitute a major barrier to wind energy uptake.

• Need to overcome policy barriers• Recommendations: rural and agricultural

application of Wind energy close to site of generation

4 Painuly (2001) Developing framework for identifying factors that could constitute barriers to RE uptake in developing countries

• Identified market failure/imperfection, market distortions economic; financial, institutional, technical barriers

• Noted the negative impact of lack of stakeholder involvement, poor legal and regulatory framework, lack of standardization measures, poorly developed manpower, poor operation and maintenance activities

5 Ley (2012) Can small scale meet development, CC mitigation and adaption goals in Guatemala and Nicaragua?Used participatory poverty assessment techniques, semi-structured interview and stakeholder analysis

Identified factors responsible for poor sustainability of projects include: poor project design, inequitable distribution of proceeds, poor institutional and maintenance frameworks

5

Terrapon-pfaff et al (2014), Balkema et al (2010), World Bank (2008) and M&EED (2006)

Post-implementation assessment of 23 RE projects in 17 developing countriesBy analysis of empirical data collected form In-depth interview and secondary data

• Initial designs of > 70% of successful projects were adapted to meet practical needs during implementation and monitoring

• Major repairs and replacement of components on 47% of projects that were operational

• 80% of successful projects were produced locally – Need for project monitoring and community participation

• Factors that determines sustainability of RETs are multidimensional: sense of ownership, users satisfaction, stakeholder engagements, effective monitoring, financial viability, effective management structure, environmental policy and institutional conditions

• Lack of technical capacity in rural

communities and inadequacy of logistics are major barriers to sustainability of RETs

Challenges of Global RE Development

7

Gaurav et al (2010) and ESMAP(2010),Beck and Martinot (2004), Riedy (2008)and Kurth (2007)

Studies the risks associated with solar energy projects by review of literature

• Categorised them into policy, financial, technical and social risks

• Exorbitant cost and unfavourable power pricing regulations, instability of policies, inadequate institutional framework and environmental issues could constitute Political risks

• Risks associated with contracts could also constitute policy risks on the success of RE projects

Challenges of Global RE Development

Nigeria: Energy ProfilePopulation ≈ 170million Energy Need = 31,240MW Energy Generation = 5800MW Energy Deficiency = 25,440 MW Electricity access in Africa – 2013

Region

Population without electricity millions

National electrification rate

(%)

Urbanelectrification rate

(%)

Ruralelectrification

rate (%)

Africa 635 43% 68% 26% Sub-Saharan Africa

634 32% 59% 17%

Nigeria 96 45% 55% 37%

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook (2015)

Traditional use of biomass for cooking in Africa – 2013

RegionPopulation relying on

traditional use of biomass (million)

Percentage of population relying on traditional use of biomass (%)

Africa 754 68% Sub-Saharan Africa

753 80%

Nigeria 122 70%Impacts: Low Industrialisation, high unemployment rate, poor socioeconomic development

Challenges of RE Development in Nigeria(Soremi, 2014 - Slow growth due to

deficiencies in inclusiveness, specificity, robustness and quality

Edomah (2016): Subsidy on Petrol - cost and pricing of energy, legal and regulatory framework and market performance

ODI (2016): Inadequate finance, fiscal barriers, low awareness, poor reputation of the technology, subsidy on gasoline,

Theoretical Framework Theory – Photoelectric Effect

Structure of a Solar Cell Source: http://global.kyocera.com/solarexpo/img/solar_power/mechanism/mecha_img01.gif (Assessed: August 2, 2016)

Configuration a Solar Module Source: http://solarlove.org/how-solar-cells-work-components-operation-of-solar-cells/ (Assessed: August 2, 2016)

Schematic of a Solar Mini-Grid SystemSource: http://www.globalsolace.org/products/solar-powered-mini-grid/ (Assessed: August 2,

2016)

 

Methodology – Mini Grids

Location of Case studies covered in the study on the solar map

Case Projec

t

Capacity

Year Commissione

d

Solar Radiation

Ownership/Funding

Status Load

1 6kW 2013 4.31kWh/m2/d

Private Investment

Functional 60homes, 20 streetlights

2 10kW 2008 6.50kWh/m2/d

Public “Donation”

Non-Functional 2homes, streetlights

Proposed six case study projects from 6 geopolitical zones of Nigeria

Factors considered: Age, Location, Functionality, Accessibility, FundingData Collection: PV system Inspection, FGDs and Interviews

guided by structured and semi-structured questionnaires

Case Study I

Case II

Dimensions of Sustainability: Definitions and Indicators

S/N

TECHNICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL ORGANISATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL

1 Quality of Component Existence of Bank Account

Community Engagement

Community Monitoring Use of energy efficient Practices

2 Stakeholder Involvement

Income Generating Activity

Street lighting Security Use of energy efficient components

3 Training for Community & Operator

Powering Economic Activity

Share of population with electricity access

Insurance Scheme Plan for safe disposal of used/expired components

4 Availability of Service Price Paid for Electricity Supply

End-Users Satisfaction

End-Users’ Satisfaction with Energy Services

Carbon Saving

5 Availability of Spare parts

O & M costs Electricity supply to public Facilities

Level of Community Engagement in Monitoring & Maintenance

Existing Adverse Environmental Impact

6 Remote Control System Strategic Plan for Economic Development

Level of Community Contribution

Developer-Donor Relationship after Commissioning

Participation Carbon Credit Scheme

7 Certification of Project Pre-Implementation Energy Survey

Pre-Installation Consultation

Level of Community Ownership

 

8 Completeness of System

Pre-Implementation Survey on ability to pay

  Experience on Theft &Vandalism

 

9 Digital Data System        10 Quality of Installation        11 Type and Frequency of

maintenance activities       

12 Sophistication of Maintenance Programmes

       

13 Solar Radiation        

Analysis and ResultsQualitative : Met the objective

Quantitative: For comparative analysis

◦Comparative Ranking (1-10,) – Ilksog (2008) 1=Least Performance, 10=Best Performance

◦Average score for each dimension for equal weight: Averages were compared

Definitions of Sustainability Dimension

Technical Sustainability – Case 1

24 unit of PV60 homes500Wh-800Wh19hours/dayComplete

componentsUntampered

cablingThunder arrestor

Technical Sustainability – Case II 2 homes, streetlights &

mosque Poor/Wrong selection of

products No monitoring Tampered Cabling No Lightning Protection Vegetation Issues Poor system fencing Dilapidated housing for

balance of system Battery on the floor at

installation Poor competence of

Contractor ◦ Unknown in Nig. PV

Industry◦ Commissioned – 2008◦ Registered – 2008/01/17◦ Political intervention

Only functioned for 2years

Technical Sustainability

Solar

Radiati

on

Completen

ess o

f Syst

em

Quality

of Componen

t

Certificati

on of Pro

ject

Availab

ility o

f Serv

ice (F

unctionalit

y)

Training f

or Opera

tor & Community

Sophisti

cation of M

onitorin

g & M

ainten

ance

Programme

Availab

ility o

f Spare

parts

Stake

holder Invo

lvemen

t

Type a

nd Freq

uency

of main

tenan

ce acti

vities

Lightning P

rotection

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CASE 1CASE 2

Economic Sustainability

Pre-Im

plemen

tation Su

rvey o

n willingn

ess to

pay

Income-G

enera

ting Activit

y

Existe

nce of B

ank A

ccount

Energ

y Supply f

or Eco

nomic Acti

vity

Particip

ation Carb

on Credit S

chem

e0123456789

10

CASE 1CASE 2

Case 1- IEEE & BOI Grants( Funding)Connection + Tariff (prepaid)7% Community contribution ( In-kind)No deliberate economic development strategy

Case 2 - Federal-State Governments “Donation/Gift”Free electricity supply + No income generating activity /supportPoor handling overCommunity Contribution : Only Land

Social Sustainability

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

CASE 1CASE 2

• Sources of Funding• Nature of Operation• Pre-implementation

Activities• Community Engagement • Community Contribution • Socialisation Meetings• Continued Relationship

Organisational Sustainability

Community En

gagem

ent in

Monito

ring &

Main

tenan

ce[1]

End-U

sers’ S

atisfa

ction w

ith En

ergy S

ervice

s

Insuran

ce Sch

eme

Collection Sy

stem &

Man

agemen

t of In

come

Developer/

Donor-Community

Relationsh

ip after

Commissioning

Experi

ence

on Theft

&Van

dalism

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CASE 1CASE 2

• Monitoring: Personnel Training, etc

• Handing Over• Responsibility for

Maintenance• Daily operation• Security

Environmental Sustainability

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CASE 1CASE 2

• 91.3 metric tons of

CO2 VS Zero

• Reduction in petrol,

kerosene and Candle

• Firewood, and

deforestation are not

affected,

Overall SustainabilityMean of the total score for each dimension

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

CASE 1CASE 2

ConclusionSustainability > Technical Sustainability = Appropriateness of the 5 dimensions

Failure = Failure of any/a combination of the 5 dimensions

Technical Failure could result from failure of the other 4 dimensions

Failure = Inadequate Planning and Implementation

ConclusionSpecific factors (Objective):

◦ Infiltration of poor quality product or product not suited for prevailing environmental conditions

◦ Lack of specialized training for Installers ◦ Poor monitoring (Low maintenance ≠ No maintenance)

◦ Inadequate Institutional Framework◦ Deployment as “Donation/Gift” is not sustainable◦ Poor stakeholder engagement: Requires other parties

Developers may only be able to ensure technical sustainability

Conclusion & Recommendation

◦ Poor telecommunication network for remote monitoring Corrective maintenance, shortens Project lifespan

◦ Limited capacity/Inability to power productive activities

◦ Donor-funded: Lack of organised income◦ Nepotism and corruption in the award of

contractRecommendations

◦ Adoption of standards: SON-ECN (Quality & Adaptability)

◦ Compulsory National Curriculum for Installers◦ Registration of Solar PV organisations◦ Monitoring and maintenance should be integral

to project planning

RecommendationSolar mini-grid is best operated

with a business model (Donors: Plan for M&M)

High level of stakeholder engagement

(Developers may only ensure technical sustainability)Strategic planning for Rural

Development (Mobile network for remote monitoring) Coordination of rural

intervention development programmes◦ (Socioeconomic development is not just a mere successor

of energy access)

When asked to give for any other comment, the head of the security group said:

“We are happy you came to see the level of dilapidation of this project so you can report to the Government to come and repair it” (Interpreted from Hausa)

Therefore…• Report will be forwarded to relevant agencies, some have

expressed interest already• Other case studies for PhD / Independent studies

Efforts for Implementation, Impacts and Future Studies

Impact

Article: Energy Access in Off-Grid Rural Communities (Adeleke, 2016)

Publisher: Renewable Energy World, USA

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/07/west-africa-regional-workshop-energy-access-to-off-grid-rural-communities.html

THANK YOU

Adeleke Adedoyin Adebodun (189186)Centre for Petroleum Energy Economics and

LawUniversity of Ibadan

Ibadan | Nigeria+234 (0) 703-929-8938 | adedoyin.ade@gmail.com