surviving the digital revolution
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at the MAS consulting event on some of the principles one can use to survive today's ever changing environment. I offered the following advices, gathered during 15 years of careful observation of how digital technologies reshape business: Protect the future from the past Look back to look ahead See through the hype Accept the unknowns Technology is not always the solutionTRANSCRIPT
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Surviving the digital revolution
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Apple (2000-2012)
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Nokia (2000-2012)
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Surviving the digital revolution?
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Protect the future from the past
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304388004577531002591315494.html 10
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304388004577531002591315494.html 10
“In late 2004, Nokia weathered criticism from investors that it was expending too much effort on high-end smartphones while its rival ate into its lucrative business selling expensive ‘dumb’ phones. [The new CEO] merged Nokia’s smartphone and basic-phone operations. The result, said several former executives, was that the more profitable basic phone business started calling the shots.
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-digital-missteps/ 11
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
http://mashable.com/2012/01/20/kodak-digital-missteps/ 11
Philisophically, the company was steeped in the film business, and to embrace digital meant cannibalizing its own business.
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Tim O’Reilly
Policy should protect the future from the past, not the past from the future.
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Tim O’Reilly
Policy should protect the future from the past, not the past from the future.
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Businesses
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Past vs future
Find your balance.And adapt your governance.
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Look back to look ahead
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Musicians have to hit the road again, and make money from playing live in front of their fans.
3D printing means anybody can create objects from his home.
Crowdfunding takes us back to the patronage period.
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
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SMS: One to one, sender chooses recipientTwitter: One to many, recipient chooses sender
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
The future looks a lot like the past
Try to find similarities, and see how it turned out in the previous iteration.
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
See through the hype
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Homepage (1990s)
Portal (2000)
Blog (2002)
Facebook (2005)
Second life (2007)
Twitter (2008)
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Tim O’Reilly
1/3 failures, 1/3 successes, 1/3 continuing under another form
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Service / concept
What is became1995 Homepage Faltered1996 ICQ Concept still going strong under other forms1997 Push Faltered1998 eCommerce Important1999 WAP Faltered2000 Portal Faltered2001 Napster Concept still going strong under other forms2002 Friendster Concept still going strong under other forms2003 LinkedIn Important2004 MySpace Faltered2005 Blog Concept still going strong under other forms2006 Web 2.0 Important2007 Second life Faltered2008 Facebook Important (despite the stock market nightmare)2009 Twitter Important2010 Wikileaks Concept still going strong under other forms2011 Groupon Failure if you trust the IPO
History of media hype towards digital technologies
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Tim O’Reilly
1/3 failures, 1/3 successes, 1/3 continuing under another form
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Service / concept
What is became1995 Homepage Faltered1996 ICQ Concept still going strong under other forms1997 Push Faltered1998 eCommerce Important1999 WAP Faltered2000 Portal Faltered2001 Napster Concept still going strong under other forms2002 Friendster Concept still going strong under other forms2003 LinkedIn Important2004 MySpace Faltered2005 Blog Concept still going strong under other forms2006 Web 2.0 Important2007 Second life Faltered2008 Facebook Important (despite the stock market nightmare)2009 Twitter Important2010 Wikileaks Concept still going strong under other forms2011 Groupon Failure if you trust the IPO
History of media hype towards digital technologies
Unscientific rule of thumb:1/3 will be successful1/3 will disappear1/3 will stay in another form
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Hype
Lot of noise, be pragmatic.But don’t use that as an excuse to overlook the important developments.
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Photo did not kill paintingDVD did not kill cinemaCars did not kill bikesRadio/downloads did not kill the music industryInternet did not kill mediaSkype did not kill phones
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Not knowing is fine
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
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The business model, which led to the success of Google, was copied from a company called Overture, a paid search specialist company, based in South California.
Next time President Bush tells you he's going to Crawford to be with "real Americans," remind him that there are more World of Warcraft players in the USA than there are farmers.
Monty Python started a YouTube channel with tons of their sketches streaming for free. The included links to their DVDs at Amazon. The result was a whopping 23,000% increase in sales.
Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Not knowing is fine
The rules of the digital world are still being written, it is normal not to know.Try things, fail, improve, never stop learning.
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Technology is not always the solution
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Technology is not always the solution
Use technologies when they bring value. Don’t go too far.
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Surviving the digital revolution?Protect the future from the past Look back to look aheadSee through the hypeAccept the unknownsTechnology is not always the solution
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Laurent Haug7 November 2012
Alvin Toffler
The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.
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[email protected]+41 78 696 64 80@laurenthaug
Jack WelchChange before you have to.