surabhi arora insights/2018-colliers-radar...delhi and the strong footprint of global companies...

2 Delhi Gurugram and NOIDA The three aces: key opportunities in the NCR Office market | Colliers

International | June 2018

Surabhi Arora Senior Associate Director | Research

[email protected]

Saif Lari Assistant Manager | Research

[email protected] The National Capital Region (NCR), is

consistently the second largest office

market with 20% share of the annual

nationwide leasing volume over the past

five years. In our opinion, the NCR

should retain its dominance in office

demand over the next five years. We

expect Delhi to see a facelift with

redevelopment projects over the coming

years. The satellite city Gurugram

should remain the preferred city among

corporate occupiers against the

backdrop of a business-friendly

environment, healthy new supply and

infrastructure improvements. NOIDA is

likely to come out of its image of

affordable technology hub and rise as

an emerging commercial market. We

advise new entrants to choose well-

established micromarkets in Delhi and

Gurugram while occupiers looking for

affordability should start exploring

NOIDA for their large requirements and

backend operations. In our opinion,

investors should keep the momentum

upbeat taking cues from the

infrastructure initiatives and optimistic

business conditions in the region.

Executive Summary

The NCR's commercial real estate has witnessed a spell

of steady and fast-paced growth over the past few years.

During this period the office market has seen an

emergence of new business districts, expansion of the

older ones and growth has reached the satellite cities of

Gurugram, NOIDA and beyond. According to Oxford

Economics, Delhi is one of the brightest spots in the

Indian economy with a forecasted annual average GDP

growth rate of 7.9% over 2018-22. Supported by

economic growth, we forecast that the NCR market

should continue to account for the second largest

proportion of office demand in India.

Figure 1: Pan India demand Analysis

Source: Colliers International India Research

In our opinion, the first and foremost driver ensuring

sustained growth of the region is the government's focus

on infrastructure and intercity road connectivity.

Additionally, the scheduled completion of metro rail

stations by 2020 is likely to put metro rail access within

3.0 km (1.8 miles) reach from all the major business

districts of the NCR, giving a thrust to the office market.

Catering to the requirement of the occupiers, developers

are planning a large quantity of supply in the emerging

corridors. We are also noticing a positive response from

occupiers for the new Grade A supply with increasing

pre-commitments. Under the umbrella of Corporate Real

Estate (CRE), flexible workspaces have now found a

niche for themselves in the market and are managing

about 1 million sq ft (0.9 million sq m) of office space

across the region. Another boost to the office market is

likely to come from the timely execution of the Special

Economic Zones (SEZs) with a supply pipeline of about

9 million sq ft (0.9 million sq m) before the application of

the sunset clause which entails a removal of income tax

exemption for SEZ occupiers after 31 March 2020.

We had various discussions with market participants, and

the general opinion of occupiers is that although we

cannot ignore the growing prominence of NOIDA, we

expect Gurugram to remain the preferred city among

corporate occupiers. The availability of a large talent

pool, Grade A office stock, excellent connectivity with

Delhi and the strong footprint of global companies should

help Gurugram maintain its pivotal position in the NCR

office market. NOIDA, on the other hand, is likely to

transform into an affordable option for the commercial

occupiers. In Delhi, given the scarce supply, the city

should pave the way for redevelopment of older projects.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



Contents

NCR: Market landscape ..................... 4

Future of the NCR market .................. 5

#1 Robust metro network; unparalleled to any other city in India ................................ 5

#2 Demand to follow the Grade A supply in coming years ............................................. 6

#3 Flexible workspaces to remain in vogue; aggressive growth to follow ....................... 7

#4 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to be a magnet for technology occupiers ............... 8

#5 Gurugram to remain the dominating office market in NCR ................................. 9

#6 NOIDA to transform into an affordable commercial hub ....................................... 10

#7 Redevelopment - a facelift for Delhi's real estate market ................................... 11



NCR: Market

landscape The NCR is the largest urban agglomeration in India and

third largest in the world after Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan

and Jakarta, Indonesia1. In India, the NCR comfortably

accounts for 20% of nationwide office demand, placing it

second only to Bengaluru over the past five years. This

seems to be picking up as the region accounted for

about 26% of pan-Indian office leasing demand in Q1

2018.

The geographical delineation of NCR comprises many

neighbouring satellite cities from the bordering states,

but the CRE hubs are spread across three major cities

namely Delhi, Gurugram and the New Okhla Industrial

Development Authority (NOIDA). This amalgamation

comprises about 109 million sq ft (10.1 million sq m) of

Grade A office stock (See: Figure 2).

Although Delhi is the national capital of India, it accounts

for only 13% of the total stock in NCR while the satellite

cities Gurugram and NOIDA account for 58% and 29%

of NCR stock respectively. Gurugram dominates office

demand in the region, with about 58%, while NOIDA and

Delhi have 29% and 13% of office demand respectively.

We foresee NCR’s contribution to the country’s economic output surging over the next five to ten years given its rising attractiveness as an investment hub supported by huge Grade A commercial development and crucial metro rail, road and air infrastructure projects.

Oxford Economics forecasts Delhi-NCR’s annual

average GDP growth to be 7.9% over 2018-2022,

ranking fourth among the Asian cities.

In our opinion, the expansion in economic activities,

large infrastructure outlay and upcoming Grade A supply

are the factors that should support high demand for

commercial office space over the coming years. In this

report, we have identified the seven key trends that we

expect to determine the future of NCR office market.

Figure 2: Pan-India Office market analysis


1 World Agglomerations 14th edition, Demographia World Urban Areas, published on April 2018



Key trends that are likely to shape

the NCR office market in the future #1 Robust metro network; unparalleled to any

city in India

The Delhi Metro Rail Corporation is undertaking the

biggest metro rail project in the country. With a network

of around 252 km (156.5 miles) sprawling across the

NCR region, it is currently the twelfth largest intercity

metro rail project in the world with about 202 stations

across nine metro rail lines spread over the city.

While most of the southern and western cities are still

struggling with haphazard urbanisation and connectivity

problems, the infrastructure in the NCR region is

relatively well developed. The metro connectivity is not

only intra-city but also inter-city which extends to the

neighbouring satellite cities such as NOIDA, Gurugram,

Faridabad and Ghaziabad.

We mapped all the three-primary commercial

micromarkets of NCR on the Delhi metro rail network and

concluded that most of the commercial hubs in Delhi

already have metro access (See: Figure 3). With the

completion of Phase 4 of the Delhi metro rail network, all

the office locations of Gurugram and NOIDA should have

metro access within a 3.0 km (1.8 miles) radius over the

next three years.

By 2020 most of the business districts in the NCR should be connected by the metro rail. On completion of Phase 4, Delhi metro rail should become the seventh largest metro line network in the world covering a distance of 310 km (192.6 miles).

With the walk to work concept becoming increasingly

preferred in the Corporate Real Estate (CRE) world,

accessibility has become one of the significant decision-

making factors for occupiers. In our opinion, the robust

metro network should be one of the major driving factors

of office demand in the NCR. In most of the other major

cities, occupiers are required to provide the end-to-end

(home to office) transport facilities to the employees.

However, in the NCR, the provision of shuttle cab

service to the nearest metro rail station is not only cost-

effective but much easier to implement. The far-reaching

metro rail network in the emerging corridors should

facilitate the expansion of CRE in this region.

Figure 3: Robust metro rail system and the placement of key micromarkets



#2 Demand to follow the Grade A supply in

coming years

Over the last couple of years, we have witnessed a clear

preference for premium Grade A buildings in the NCR.

Despite the high vacancy rate of about 28%, select

premium buildings have achieved higher occupancy and

rental premiums of 30% to 40% over the market rent.

Some good examples of premium Grade A buildings

setting a higher benchmark are Bharti Realty Worldmark

in Aerocity (Delhi), Red Fort Capital Parsvnath Towers

on Connaught Place (Delhi), DLF Cybercity, Hines One

Horizon Centre in Golf Course Road (GCR, Gurugram),

Max tower and the World Trade Tower in Sector 16

(NOIDA). Given the higher demand for premium

buildings, developers are building several Grade A

developments in emerging submarkets which are likely

to be completed over the next three years.

We have witnessed a trend where large occupiers are being more strategic with their real estate requirements, pre-committing space for future needs and optimising their real estate portfolios. Recently, large occupiers such as Gartner, Bank of America, Boston Consulting Group and Google have pre-committed to office space in upcoming Grade A properties.

In preferred micromarkets we expect this trend to

continue with demand following the Grade A supply in

the upcoming years. Some micromarkets which we

expect to see this trend include:

> Golf Course Extension Road (GCER)

Recently, the GCER has started witnessing

increased occupier interest. The extension of

Gurugram's Rapid Metro to GCER, availability of

Grade A supply and increasing rents in preferred

micromarkets such as Cybercity, MG Road and GCR

are the primary drivers of this trend.

In our opinion, the GCER, with 30% of the total

upcoming new supply, is a natural extension of the

GCR micromarket. The Grade A buildings in GCR

quote about INR100 to 200 (USD1.70 to 3.0)/sq

ft/month, while GCER is quoting rents in the range of

INR45 to 75 (USD0.70 to 1.20)/sq ft/month, a

substantial rent difference. Although the social

amenities and infrastructure are still nascent, we

believe it is the right time for occupiers with leases

expiring in the next one to two years to start

exploring this micromarket. This should allow an

opportunity to hedge against future rent increases.

Figure 4: Upcoming supply in Gurugram and NOIDA


> NOIDA Expressway

We expect the NOIDA-Greater NOIDA Expressway

micromarket to gain prominence over the coming

years due to the huge supply pipeline. About 64% of

the total supply is concentrated in NOIDA

Expressway. Unlike in the past, when the supply was

chiefly catering to Information Technology and

Information Technology Enabled Services (IT/ITeS)

occupiers, the new supply in this stretch is more

commercial in nature, serving corporate occupiers.

In our opinion, the new commercial buildings should

help NOIDA to shed its image as a pure IT/ITeS

destination. The upcoming international airport at

Jewar and the new metro connectivity should further




enhance the viability of this area for corporate

occupiers. Further, manufacturing companies with

operations in the Greater NOIDA area may like to

open their corporate offices in this area due to the

convenience of location.

#3 Flexible workspaces to remain in vogue;

aggressive growth to follow

The flexible workspace segment in the NCR has been

proliferating since 2015. Currently, flexible operators

manage about 1.0 million sq ft (0.09 million sq m) of

office space in the NCR. In our opinion, flexible

workspaces are no longer considered as disruptors but

rather as an integral part of modern-day CRE.

Flexible workspaces started to appear first in the Delhi

CBD around 2015-16 due to the lack of Grade A office

spaces for smaller occupiers. Since 2017, the focus of

operators has changed towards the larger markets of

Gurugram and NOIDA. Players such as Wework,

Cowrks and Goworks have recently leased large floor

plates at strategic locations.

In our opinion, given the high vacancy in the NCR, developers should remain aware of the competition from these flexible office spaces.

We are currently seeing strong demand from smaller

tenants for collaborative workspaces, and landlords can

redesign their existing space to create options meeting

the needs of these tenants.

We recommend that landlords recognise the benefits of

flexible workspace and redesign their office spaces

across their portfolios. We advise landlords and

developers to maximise opportunities by putting

underused spaces to work to offer quality and more

efficient office spaces.

In 2017, we observed that a few developers such as

DLF, Vatika, Supertech and Ascendas alike are also

exploring options to offer flexible workspace facilities.

Considering the traction towards these flexible workspaces for both employees and employers, having an office space in one of these facilities should play a major role in employee retention.

We advise new entrants to manage their operations out

of a fully managed flexible workspace in established

micromarkets such as Connaught Place in Delhi and

Cybercity and GCR in Gurugram. Large corporates can

adopt a flex and core strategy. As detailed in our

recent Asia Pacific report The Flexible Workspace

Outlook Report 2018 the concept of the flex and core

leasing model is that an occupier takes space on a long-

term deal for its core operations together with an

agreement with a flexible workspace operator to

accommodate volatility in headcount.

Figure 5: NCR flexible workspace statistics


http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/apac/asia/Colliers-FlexibleWorkspace2018-APAC.pdf

http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/apac/asia/Colliers-FlexibleWorkspace2018-APAC.pdf



There are several ways in which the flex and core

concept can be adopted, and variations typically revolve

around where the core space is accommodated, that is,

either with an operator or directly with a landlord on a

traditional lease. In either case, cost savings can be

achieved by leveraging a discounted rent through the

operator taking space, in addition to the occupiers’ core

space, and economies of scale on the fit-out.

#4 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to be a

magnet for technology occupiers

The insecurity regarding the continuity of the income tax

benefits has been an area of growing concern for various

stakeholders of this asset class. As detailed in our April

2018 report, Special Economic Zones - Decoding the

prophecy of the upcoming sunset clause, around 40

million sq ft (3.8 million sq m) of new supply is scheduled

across India before the mandatory deadline of 31 March

2020 to qualify for income tax benefits in SEZs.

Notably, many top-notch SEZ developers have their eyes set on the NCR market. Ascendas, Tata Realty and Ireo are coming up with new developments in Gurugram while developers such as Brookfield and DLF are adding new towers in their existing projects.

Ahead of the sunset clause on income tax rebates, we

saw increased interest among occupiers for SEZ spaces.

Prominent developers also see a great value in

introducing and expanding their SEZ assets to capture

Figure 6: Demand Analysis of SEZs from 2016-2018F

the market while the timing is right (See: Figure 6).

The NCR has approximately 9.0 million sq ft (0.9 million

sq m) of new supply planned to be developed over the

next five years. More than 70% of the upcoming supply

is concentrated in Gurugram in micromarkets such as

Golf Course Extension Road and Sohna Road. NOIDA

accounts for only 30% of the upcoming supply, which is

primarily concentrated at NOIDA Expressway. According

to our estimates, only 6.0 million sq ft (0.6 million sq m)

is likely to be completed by 2020.

To hedge against rent increases in their existing facilities, IT/ITeS occupiers looking to relocate, consolidate and expand in Gurugram should consider getting a good deal in office space strategically located in the state-of-the-art SEZ campuses on GCER.

Currently, rents in the upcoming SEZs on Golf Course

Extension Road are in the range of INR55-70 (USD1.00-

1.10) per sq ft per month, while the locations such as

Cyber City and Sohna Road quote INR80-100

(USD1.25-1.50) per sq ft per month. We expect rents to

remain stable given the robust supply pipeline. However,

Cybercity may see upward pressure on rent due to its

premium location and limited supply.

SEZ rents in NOIDA are about 35% cheaper than rents

in Gurugram but the average vacancy rate in NOIDA is

around 5% and the supply pipeline is also limited. We

expect this situation to make it difficult for occupiers to

obtain large contiguous space in the future.


http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/apac/india/market%20insights/2018-colliers-radar-special-economic-zones-in-%20india.pdf

http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/apac/india/market%20insights/2018-colliers-radar-special-economic-zones-in-%20india.pdf



#5 Gurugram to remain the dominating office

market in NCR

Gurugram, popularly known as Millennium City, has

been capturing about 60% of the total regional office

demand over the past five years. The demand for office

space primarily comes from the technology, financial

and manufacturing sectors which have shifted their

corporate offices from Connaught Place and other parts

of south Delhi area in pursuit of Grade A office space at

affordable rents with good connectivity to the

International Airport and other business districts of Delhi

after the global financial crisis in 2008. Since then the

city has become the favourite corporate office

destination and has been experiencing demand from

companies expanding.

Now with NOIDA gaining momentum, the big

question is whether Gurugram will lose some of its

demand to its neighbour to the east? We had

discussions with market participants and the general

opinion of occupiers is that Gurugram should remain the

preferred city among corporate occupiers. The factors

that should help Gurugram to maintain its dominance in

the NCR’s office landscape are:

Business-friendly environment: Gurugram hosts many

of the Fortune 500 companies from across the globe.

Multi-National Companies (MNCs) find it easier to locate

themselves in Gurugram due to its proximity to the IGI

airport, and the availability of both Grade A buildings and

a quality talent-pool. Haryana's state government was

recently ranked as the second-best state for the ease of

doing business by the Department of Industrial Policy

and Promotion. The government has also planned to

invest in the country's biggest incubator, Global Start-up

Village, which we expect should further accelerate the

start-up businesses in Gurugram.

Unaltered occupier preference: Gurugram is known for

its marquee Grade A buildings in the NCR. Based on our

discussions with market participants, the general opinion

of occupiers is that regardless of the affordable rents and

upcoming commercial supply in NOIDA, commercial real

estate demand in Gurugram is likely to remain robust

over the next three years. Although we cannot ignore the

growing prominence of NOIDA, the availability of a large

talent pool and the large footprint of global companies

should help Gurugram maintain its pivotal position in the

NCR office market.

In our opinion, considering Gurugram’s reputation as a

“corporate hub” of the NCR, new entrants should choose

Gurugram for their front office and corporate

requirements. However, looking at the rising rents, cost

cautious occupiers should start exploring NOIDA for their

large corporate office requirements and backend

operations.

Figure 7: Factors that we expect to help Gurugram

keep its dominance

SEZ: Office spaces developed under SEZ of India policy

IT: Office space developed under Software Technology Parks of India (STPI) policy or state government IT/ITeS policy Commercial: Any other building except SEZ and IT


Infrastructure improvement: The state government

plans to invest about INR100 billion (USD1.48 billion) to

improve the intercity connectivity by building bypasses

and flyovers to bridge the infrastructure development

gap in the millennium city. Looking at recent

developments, it seems that Gurugram will not be far



behind from NOIDA in terms of infrastructure in the

coming years.

#6 NOIDA to transform into an affordable

commercial hub

The NOIDA market has historically been the preference

of cost-conscious backend IT companies looking for

affordable rents and excellent connectivity with Delhi.

Out of the overall leasing volume in the NCR over the

past five years, NOIDA accounted for roughly 29% of

the total demand. Notwithstanding the traditional image,

the city is also gearing up to host a plethora of MNCs in

upcoming years.

The city witnessed 1.0 million sq ft (0.09 million sq m) of

absorption in Q1 2018 which was almost double than Q1

2017 demand. What is driving the rise in demand for

NOIDA? We had several informal discussions with

market stakeholders and conclude that the following are

the factors that should contribute to the increase in

demand in NOIDA's CRE.

Increase in commercial supply: A healthy supply of 13

million sq ft (1.2 million sq m) is currently under various

stages of construction across NOIDA. Out of this

upcoming supply, about 62% of projects are in the form

of commercial assets. While the IT sector has been the

dominant occupier so far, with an increasing supply of

Grade A buildings we expect this market to evolve into a

more diverse commercial office hub in the future.

Affordable Rentals: NOIDA has been the affordable

option for the occupiers seeking sub-one-dollar office

space. The average rent quoted by developers in

NOIDA is about INR57 (USD0.87)/sq ft/month. This is

almost 35% cheaper than the INR88 (USD1.40)/sq

ft/month rentals quoted by the Grade A office buildings

in Gurugram.

Enhanced connectivity: In an endeavour to improve

the connectivity of NOIDA and to develop it as an

international business destination, the authorities have

been swiftly working on the ambitious International

Airport at Jewar (55 km or 35 miles from NOIDA’s

CBD)

The state government has recently signed a

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Yamuna

Expressway Industrial Development Authority (YEIDA),

NOIDA and Greater NOIDA Industrial Development

Authorities to fast-track the work on the

greenfield airport. The upcoming airport will probably be

catering to domestic and international routes by 2022-

23. In addition, metro rail service is also being extended

to reach the Jewar Airport. This should further provide

improved accessibility to office occupiers in this region.

Growth in industrial investments: Investors seem to

be responding well to government policies and

infrastructure initiatives. During the Uttar Pradesh

Investor's Summit, various industries signed MOUs to

Figure 8: Factors expected to help NOIDA rise

SEZ: Office spaces inside an SEZ development IT: Office space limited to IT/ITeS occupiers Commercial: Non-IT office spaces catering to the corporates




invest in NOIDA, with a cumulative investment

estimated by domestic and MNCs to be about INR130

to INR150 billion (USD1.6 to 1.7 billion). In our opinion,

the growth in industrial activities shall also

simultaneously drive the office market in NOIDA.

#7 Redevelopment – a facelift for Delhi's real

estate market

The Delhi commercial market is one of the top three

expensive rental markets in the country. Historically, the

CBD has been the epicenter of occupiers' interest in the

city, but in recent years the Aerocity micromarket has

emerged as the potential corporate hub of the city. The

rise of Aerocity can be traced to its state-of-the-art

buildings, single-entity ownership, proximity to the IGI

Airport and good connectivity with the both South,

Central Delhi and Gurugram. Owing to these attributes

many MNCs were compelled to re-locate to this

micromarket from the CBD and SBD areas of Delhi. The

phase I of the Aerocity hospitality district includes about

2 million sq ft (0.18 million sq m) of operational office

stock which currently has low-vacancy rate, another 0.5

million sq ft (0.04 million sq m) of supply pipeline under

the phase II of Aerocity Gateway District is to be

expected over the next five years.

We do not foresee any significant supply in other

established micromarkets in Delhi. However, in 2016 the

Government approved the redevelopment of seven

General Pool Residential Accommodation (GPRA)

Colonies. National Buildings Construction Corporation

(NBCC) is the implementing agency for the

redevelopment of Sarojini Nagar, Nauroji Nagar and

Netaji Nagar, while Central Public Works Department

(CPWD) will be the implementing agency for the

redevelopment of Kasturba Nagar, Thyagraj Nagar,

Sriniwaspuri and Mohammadpur. Moreover, the Indian

railways are also looking to monetise the prime land in

the city via a Public Private Participation (PPP)

model.

NBCC's first project in Nauroji Nagar, supplying about 3.3 million sq ft (0.3 million sq m) of Grade A space is already at an advanced stage of construction. NBCC has obtained the accreditation of “World

Trade Centre2” for this project.

Due to its prime south location in the city, the first e-

auction witnessed considerable success with bids from

public-sector units such as Power Finance Corporation,

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. and Energy

Efficiency Services. The cumulative area sold was about

0.28 million sq ft (26,000 sq m) of office space. The

average sales price was about INR38,000 (USD587) per

sq ft, which is 8 to10% higher than in Delhi’s CBD. The

second tranche of the e-auction is planned to be

conducted by the end of 2018.

We expect the redevelopment of these projects to act as a facelift to the overall Delhi commercial market, despite the initial buildings being primarily occupied by single- tenant state-owned companies, banks and public-sector units.

In our opinion, the scarce supply situation and trend of

occupiers clearly favouring Grade A buildings gives

developers an enticing opportunity to rebuild their

portfolios by redeveloping and redesigning their old yet

well-located buildings.

2 World Trade Center Association is the body which provides exclusive World Trade Center (WTC) branded properties worldwide in partnership with local developers

Copyright © 2018 Colliers International.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

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Primary Author:

Surabhi Arora

Senior Associate Director | Research | India

+91 98 7175 0808 | [email protected]

Saif Lari | Assistant Manager | Research | NCR

[email protected]

For more information please contact;

Ritesh Sachdev

Sr. Executive Director | Occupier Services | India

[email protected]

Sanjay Chatrath

Executive Director | NCR

[email protected]

Vineet Anand

Director | Office Services | NCR

[email protected]

Colliers International | India

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DLF Golf Course Road Sector 54

Gurugram 122002 | India

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