suppose the game’s outcome is lousy… what can you do?

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Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy… What can you do?

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Page 1: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy… What can you do?

Page 2: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

The Cold War: Nuclear Deterrence

Soviets

U.S.

Start Land War

No War

Nuclear

1*,-1**

-100*,-100**

0*,0**

*payoff for USSR, **payoff for US

Conventional

Page 3: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

Dr. Strangelove

Soviets

U.S.

Nuclear-100*,-100**

0*,0**

*payoff for USSR, **payoff for US

Start Land War

No War

Page 4: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

The eight-fold path to credibility1. Establish a reputation2. Write contracts3. Cut off communication4. Burn bridges behind you5. Leave the outcome to chance6. Move in small steps7. Develop credibility through teamwork8. Employ mandated negotiating agents

Page 5: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

Reputation Israel’s refusal to deal with hijackers Tax amnesty & the US Congress Mayflower Furniture “127 years without a

sale”

Page 6: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

Contracts Agree to penalties if you don’t follow

through Complications

Nick Russo: “$25,000 to the charity of your choice if you catch me eating in a restaurant.”

Renegotiation http://www.stickk.com/

Page 7: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

Cutting Off Communication Death and Cecil Rhodes

Page 8: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

Burning Bridges Cortez burned his own ships upon arrival

in Cempoalla, Mexico

Page 9: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

Leaving the Outcome Beyond Your Control Dr. Strangelove

Page 10: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

Moving in Steps Honor among thieves

Event 1: A single million dollar transaction Event 2: A thousand transactions of $1000

Page 11: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

Teamwork Peer Pressure: Weight Watchers, AA Romans: Falling Behind was a capital

offense for soldiers

Page 12: Suppose the game’s outcome is lousy…  What can you do?

This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

Mandated Negotiating Agents A labor leader may have to deliver the

gains he promised or lose his job