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supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Landings Obligation EIA John Anderson Senior Economist

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Page 1: Supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Landings Obligation EIA John Anderson Senior Economist

supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future

Landings Obligation EIA

John Anderson

Senior Economist

Page 2: Supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Landings Obligation EIA John Anderson Senior Economist

supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future

New evidence base and analytical output

Comprehensive Economic Impact Assessment (EIA) of a move from status quo fisheries management measures to various potential scenarios under the new CFP Landings Obligation (LO). The analysis aims to provide:

1. An overall assessment of the likely new equilibrium ‘balance’ situation between fleet capacity, onshore capacity, and the new fishing opportunities available under the LO

2. Sufficient evidence base for input into the formulation of adequate regional (demersal) discard plans that will need to be submitted to COM in mid-2015

3. Identification of key challenges for industry and government

Page 3: Supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Landings Obligation EIA John Anderson Senior Economist

supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future

 

Page 4: Supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Landings Obligation EIA John Anderson Senior Economist

supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future

Catching sector

• Economic performance estimates for individual fleet segments under the LO, taking into account potential for quota trading plus the various flexibilities and exemptions

• Areas of investigation will include:

• Analysis of ‘choke’ species and affected fleet segments after ‘uplift’

• Assessment of the potential for quota trading to avoid choke scenarios

• De minimis – potential for application at fleet segment level

• Implications of altering the ordering of application of quota leasing, flexibility and exemption mechanisms

• Compatibility issues with the UK FQA system: a) Allocation within the UK to DA’s and DA’s to PO’s, U10m and non-sector etc b) Conversion factors for 9% flex (cod equivalents, tonnage, value etc) c) Phased introduction for target vs. non target species for different fleets

Page 5: Supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Landings Obligation EIA John Anderson Senior Economist

supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future

Onshore sector

Onshore IA to take place once LO fishing opportunities established in the fleet IA.

Assessment will focus on changes in:

• Species types (i.e. new diverse species) and volumes (i.e. potential for new markets)

• Size and quality of fish landed, market prices

• Timing, continuity and geographical location of landings - ability to meet status quo demand

• Number, scale, location, structure and viability of onshore businesses

• Imports and infrastructure

• Opportunities for market development and identification of key barriers to development

Page 6: Supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Landings Obligation EIA John Anderson Senior Economist

supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future

Outline of tasks / work packages

Task 1: Fleet segmentation and status quo analysis - UNDERWAY Task 2: Choke analysis Task 3: Consult on likely management responses / approach to dealing with choke issues

Task 4: Consult on likely responses of vessel owners

Task 5: EIA of LO on catching sector - based on outcome of tasks 1-4 Task 6: Onshore / processing status quo analysis – UNDERWAY

Task 7: Consult on likely routes to market for new volumes and species

Task 8: EIA of LO on onshore sector

Task 9: Reporting – FEBRUARY 2015

Page 7: Supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future Landings Obligation EIA John Anderson Senior Economist

supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable future

Thoughts / comments / suggestions welcome

[email protected] 524 8662