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Gordon McBean Western University

Reducing Risks, Gaining Benefits – Coping with Weird Weather in a Changing Climate

Réduire les risques et obtenir des avantages : s’adapter à la météo incertaine dans le contexte

des changements climatiquess

Professor Gordon McBeanC.M., O.Ont, Ph.D., FRSC

Chair, Canadian Climate Forum

Centre for Environment and SustainabilityInstitute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

Western UniversityPresident-elect

International Council for Sceince

A Changing Climate

TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 4

CLIMATE IS THE “STATISTICS OF WEATHER” AND THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING

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IPCC (2007) - Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global

average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Eleven of

the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface

temperature (since 1850).

The World Meteorological Organization (2011): “2010 ranked as the warmest year on record, together with 2005 and

1998”. “The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46°C above the 1961-1990 average, and are the highest ever recorded for a 10-year

period since the beginning of instrumental climate records.


Weather-climate related disasters in Canada (1900-2011)

* Only two years of decade

Nu

mb

er

10 Year Period

Severe storms

Floods

Wildfire

Projections for the future climate and “weird” weather.

“Weird” is unusual and the opposite of “normal”. In climate we define “normal” in terms of 30-y (or at least decadal) means and statistics.


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UNCERTAINTY

WARMINGOC PER DECADE

PROJECTED WARMING IN THE FUTUREFUTURE

GROWTH OF 3-5°


WINTER SUMMER

4.5°C

3.5°C

3.5°C

Focus on 2050SEASONAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE

(relative to 1961–1990)

Canada will warm more than global average warming + 1.5C by 2050

Much warmer winters and warmer summers by 2050.


WINTER SUMMER

More precipitation inwinters by 2050.

More rain and less snow.

Summers– variable change.

30%

10%

<10%

SEASONAL CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION BY 2050(relative to 1961–1990)

Hot weather and reduced rain –

desertification risk


% CHANGES IN PROJECTED SNOW DEPTH (MARCH 2050)

UP TO 100% REDUCTIONS ACROSS MID-LATITUDES

Weird Weather in a Changing Climate and its Costs

Weird (unusual) Weather will become the new “normal”.


CANADIANS AND PEOPLE AROUND THE GLOBE WILL NEED TO

“ADAPT”:

“making adjustments in our decisions, activities and thinking because of observed or expected changes in climate, in order to moderate harm or take advantage of new

opportunities.” REDUCING RISKS, GAINING BENEFITS – COPING WITH WEIRD

WEATHER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

WEIRD WEATHER – HOW TO ADAPT?

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Human Health in a Changing Climate:A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and

Adaptive Capacity (2008)• “Climate change is expected to

increase risk to the health of Canadians through many pathways: they food they eat, the air they breathe, the water they drink, and their exposure to extreme weather events and infectious diseases found in nature.”

• “Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”– Lancet and UCL, 2009


Projected

Observed

*A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum temperature above 30C

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

8 22 37 68

IN EUROPE: RECORD SETTING AUGUST 2003

(MORE THAN 70,000 DEATHS) WILL BEEVERY SECOND SUMMER BY MID-CENTURY

NUMBER OF HOT DAYS* PER YEAR


The 8 day heat event in 2009 in the Vancouver and Lower Fraser

area caused 134 deaths

A 1990’s 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-3-5 (Year) event by

2050.4-6 TIMES AS MANY HOT DAYS.

By 2050, for every 100,000 people, 6-8 additional deaths and about $500,000 costs– across southern

Canada.NRTEE – 2011: Paying the Price: The Economic Costs of

Climate Change for Canada

Extreme EventsMORE HOT DAYS

Heat warnings - WaterGreen space and shade

Design of structuresAttention to elderly and handicapped


Extreme EventsFREEZING RAIN

Extreme events - the unborn and children :

“Children whose mother experienced high stress (during the Quebec 1998 ice storm) scored lower on IQ

and language performance tests than those whose mothers had less stress.”

Eastern Canada Ice Storm 199830+ deaths $5 b + damages

Months of impact

Freezing rain events by 2050Ottawa –Montreal-Quebec City: 50%

INCREASE in the number of freezing rain events of more than 4 hours. Close to 80%

increase of events of more than 6 hours.


Extreme EventsSUMMER STORMS Toronto Rain/Wind Event 2005

$624 m insured lossesCalgary Rain/Wind – 2010 – $1B

Calgary Rain/Wind – 2009 – $362 mSW Ontario Rain/Wind –2009 – $482 m

Calgary Hail – 1991 – $885 m

By 2050, a 1990’s 1-in-20 year annual maximum daily

precipitation amount is likely to become a 1-in-10 to 1-in-15 year

event.ABOUT TWICE AS MANY HEAVY

SUMMER STORMS.


TornadoesGoderich tornado – 2011

GTA (Vaughan) tornado – 2009Pine Lake - 2000

Edmonton tornado – 1987

Extreme EventsSUMMER STORMS –

TORNADOESWith more heavy

precipitation and hot days --

Increased risk of tornadoes

COPING WITH WEIRD WEATHER• Improved observations

and predictions• Better structural design of

homes and property.• Insurance Research

Laboratory for Better Homes

• Wind Engineering, Energy and Environment Dome

Meteorological ServiceEnvironment Canada


FloodingAlberta – 2005 – $327 m

Saguenay – 1996 – $271 mWinnipeg – 1993 – $252 m

Extreme EventsFLOODING

By 2050, with about twice as many heavy precipitation

events, more floods are projected.

Flood warningsDykes, water controlLand-use planning


The 1999-2004 Drought

In 2001 and 2002 drought years:• $5.8 billion in lost GDP• 41,000+ jobs lost • 5 times as many forest fires in Alberta • Blowing dust - contributing factor in two fatalities

Consul, SK1999-2004 Prairie Drought - prelude of future

droughts. Reduce vulnerability -

early warning and more lead time for adaptations.

2002

0-20% of expected yield for spring wheat, barley,

canola, and field peas


MORE THAN 50% INCREASE

By 2030

Extreme EventsWILDFIRES

Slave Lake Fire 2011$700 m insured losses

Kelowna – 2003 – $227 m

Fire proofingLand-use planning

Fire control - warnings


Climate Change and Its Impact on Horticulture in Ontario

Climate Change/Dealing with Adverse Weather

Apple Crop in Ontario2012 – 80% lost

•Better predictions•Adaptations•Crop selection

BIOTRON


ATLANTIC CANADASea Level Rise – and Hurricanes with Stronger Winds

Storm WarningsCoastal DefencesStructural and

Community Preparedness


Sea Level Rise Adaptation PrimerA toolkit to build adaptive capacity on Canada’s south coasts - January

2013SEA LEVEL RISE- Impacting all our coasts

Current Impacts and ResponsesGreater Vancouver – sea level rise•1m of SLR would cause an about $12B in damages to City of Vancouver alone.•Much of Vancouver’s infrastructure was built to historical standards and will require significant reinforcement.•In 2011, BCMoE issued guidelines specifying that coastal infrastructure should be designed to withstand 1.2m over 100 years (=3.3m with storm surge and king tide conditions); 2m over 200 years.


Cold winters are needed in order to build roads over otherwise impassable lakes and muskeg.

IN THE NORTH

Most years the Tibbitt to Contwoyto winter road is open 70 days, but the warm winter of 2005-06 meant only 50 days of use thanks to a late start and early closure. Only 6,841 loads out of

the planned 9,000 loads made it by truck into the Diavik Diamond Mine, which then had to spend tens of millions of

dollars flying in 13,000 tonnes of dry cargo and 11,000 tonnes of fuel.

WITH THE WARMER CLIMATE, THIS WILL BE A MUCH BIGGER PROBLEM

Climate Change – as a national security issue

Arctic Sovereignty• Northwest Passage• Continental Shelf

Extension• Exploration and

exploitation of Arctic resources

Integrated Environmental Prediction – on all times scales

Informing decision making for coping with the weather in a changing climate

UK Met Office

Agriculture: Analysis of past weather observations to manage climate risks;

this informs crop choice and planting date to optimise yields and minimise crop

failure risk.

Disaster Risk Reduction: Predicting hazardous

weather conditions and disseminating tailored and timely warnings to reduce the impact on vulnerable

communities.

Food security: Monthly to decadal predictions to warn local, national and international communities of expected drought conditions.

Water Resources: Applying regional scale

climate model predictions to inform

climate change adaptation decisions.

Coastal Cities at Risk - Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate

Change in Coastal Megacities

Vancouver, Bangkok, Manila, LagosPartnering with Shanghai and others

2011-2016

Better planned and safer cities and reduced socio-economic impacts as the climate changes.

Highly Qualified Personnel in Canada and in our country partners


SUMMARY OF PRESENTATION

• Canada’s climate is changing and these weather trends are already affecting Canadians;

• Severe weather is projected to increase over the next 40 years and beyond;

• Information about weather and climate on times scales from now to next decades will allow public and private sector leaders to reduce risks and gain benefits;

• Science, engineering and technology provide solutions.

The End

Thank you for your attention

Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes

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Documents

weather story

changing climate slide

future climate

weird weather

statistics of weather

climate system

sceince slide

global average warming