super market: overview 2017 forecasting 2018...the negative trend in sales, over the past two years...

Super Market: Overview 2017

Forecasting 2018

ECR Meeting

Panagiotis Boretos

Deputy Managing Director

Commercial Director

28/02/2018

© 2018 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

Key Findings

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE TOTAL MARKET

• Counting from 2010, Q3 2017 is the first

period presenting positive GDP vs Q3 2016

• Inflation trend in 2017 reversed, being in

same level as 2012

• Positive sales trend for the market in 2017

vs 2016

• Positive trends in both volume and value in

2017

• Unemployment decreased, during the first

ten months of 2017


Content

1 Greek Market Layout

2 Trends in value for Total Greece - Super/Hyper Markets

3 Trends in value for 6 Top Retailers - Super/Hyper Markets

4 Forecasting 2018


Greek economy

RETAIL TURNOVER INDEX (w.o AUTOMOTIVE FUEL)

INFLATION RATE TRENDUNEMPLOYMENT

GDP

Source: ELSTAT Jan 2017 (latest available period/provisional data)

-4,9%

-7,1%-6,4%

-5,3%

-1,8%

-0,2%

0,0%

1,2%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YTD SEP

17

-1,2%

-7,2%

-11,3%

-8,6%

-1,0%-0,8% -0,6%

1,0%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Jan - Oct

2017

14,8%

21,0%

26,9% 27,5% 26,5% 25,0% 23,5% 21,6%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Oct

2017

4,7%

3,3%

1,5%

-0,9%-1,3%

-1,7%

-0,8%

1,0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Super & Hyper Markets | At least 2 cash registers

During 2017, Random Weight categories have shown excellent performance

FMCG & Random Weight Value Sales Trend

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM - RW

RW 19.6% RW 19.7% RW 20.3%

FMCG 80.4%FMCG 80.3% FMCG 79.7%

3,0%

-5,6% 6,0%

-6,1%

-6,2% 2,3%

YEAR 2015 YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017

Random Weight FMCG .. .


Positive trends in both Volume and Value terms in year 2017

FMCG

-6,2

2,3

-7,9

3,41,7

-1,1

YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM - RW, Year 2017

-5,6

6,0

-4,8

5,8

-0,8

0,3

YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017

Value Volume Price per Volume

Random Weight


FMCG Value Sales Trend by month

Value sales trend is positive during the latest consecutive months

-5,9%-8,2% -9,3%

2,2%

-13,8%-14,4%

-2,8%

-6,3% -7,0% -6,6%-4,8%

4,1%

-9,3%

3,5%

-3,9%-2,5%

4,6%

1,9%4,1%

5,6% 6,0%1,6% 8,0%

7,4%

Ιαν-16 Μαρ-16 Μαϊ-16 Ιουλ-16 Σεπ-16 Νοε-16 Ιαν-17 Μαρ-17 Μαϊ-17 Ιουλ-17 Σεπ-17 Νοε-17


-5,6%

-8,9%

-1,8%-3,9%

-12,5%

-5,3%-0,2%

-9,1% -10,0%-10,5%

-5,2%

3,9%

-6,7%

9,6%

-3,5%

5,6%

9,2%

1,7% 8,9%

11,9% 11,3%

7,2%

13,3%

8,1%

Ιαν-16 Μαρ-16 Μαϊ-16 Ιουλ-16 Σεπ-16 Νοε-16 Ιαν-17 Μαρ-17 Μαϊ-17 Ιουλ-17 Σεπ-17 Νοε-17

Random Weight Value Sales Trend by month


Monthly Value Sales in Billions | 2017 vs 2015

The negative trend in sales, over the past two years is coming from FMCG,

Random Weight remain stable

Total Market, FMCG & Random Weight


6,75 6,34 6,53

5,43 5,095,21

1,321,25

1,33

Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17

Total Super Hyper Market FMCG Random Weight

Total S/H Market -3.3% vs 2015

Total FMCG -4.1% vs 2015

Total Random Weight+0.1% vs 2015


Decreasing categories in Value Contribution

Dairy, Household Cleaners & Personal Care and Beauty showing the most

significant losses in value contribution in Super-Hyper Markets

Source: IRI InfoScan & Random Weight, HM/SM

5,8% 5,8% 5,0% 8,2%3,0%

13,5%

5,6% 5,6%4,8%

8,0%

2,9%

13,1%

HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS PERSONAL CARE &

BEAUTY

PERSONAL HYGIENE COOKING AIDS OTHER HOUSEHOLD

PRODUCTS

DAIRY

YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017


Winning categories in Value Contribution

Random Weight in total and Food and Beverage categories, showing the most

significant gain in value contribution in Super-Hyper Markets

Source: IRI InfoScan & Random Weight, HM/SM

8,5% 13,2% 7,8% 3,1% 4,7% 19,7%

8,7%

13,3%

8,0%

3,3%

4,7%

20,3%

NON ALC

BEVERAGES

PACKAGED FOOD SNACKS FROZEN FOOD ALCOHOL DRINKS RW

YEAR 2016 YEAR 2017


Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM

Positive signs mainly in Food & Beverage Categories

Super/Hyper Markets I Value Sales Trend 2017 vs 2016

-1,3%

0,8%

-1,3%

-1,2%

5,9%

3,7%

5,8%

8,4%

3,2%

0,6%

0,6%

3,7%

6,0%

HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS & DETERGENTS

OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS

PERSONAL CARE & BEAUTY

PERSONAL HYGIENE

NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES

PACKAGED FOOD

SNACKS

FROZEN FOOD

ALCOHOL DRINKS

COOKING AIDS, INGREDIENTS & CONDIMENTS

DAIRY

OTHER PRODUCTS

TOTAL RW


FMCG Value Sales Trend Ι Top 5 Retailers

YR 2015YR 2016 YR 2017

Contribution of Top 5 retailers recovered the final quarter of 2017


-8.0% 2.0%

Value Contribution Q1 ‘16 Q2 ‘16 Q3 ‘16 Q4 ‘16 Q1 ‘17 Q2 ‘17 Q3 ‘17 Q4 ‘17

Top 5 Retailers 89.1% 87.8% 86.1% 87.7% 87.7% 87.7% 86.2% 88.1%


Value Growth during latest 24 Months

Starting from April 2017, Top 5 Retailers have better performance

than Total Market


-5,9%

-8,2%-9,3%

2,2%

-13,8%-14,4%

-2,8%

-6,3%-7,0% -6,6%

-4,8%

4,1%

-9,3%

3,5%

-3,9%-2,5%

4,6%

1,9%

4,1%

5,6%

6,0%

1,6%

8,0%7,4%

-6,4%

-8,9%

-11,0%

-0,5%

-15,3%

-16,7%

-5,4%

-9,1% -9,3%-8,5%

-6,2%

2,9%

-11,1%

1,8%

-5,0%

-2,1%

4,9%

1,1%

4,3%

5,7% 6,1%

1,9%

8,7%8,1%

JAN 16 MAR 16 MAY 16 JUL 16 SEP 16 NOV 16 JAN 17 MAR 17 MAY 17 JUL 17 SEP 17 NOV 17

Total Greece S.Markets

Top Five Retailers

14

Forecasting 2018 Explanatory Variables:

• GDP

• Number of Stores - Carry over effect


Forecasting model factors

• 4+ years of POS data with key causal measures

• Macroeconomic Factors

– Gross domestic product

– Turnover Index in Retail Trade

– Unemployment rate

– Consumer Price Index (Inflation Rate)

– Per capita figures: GDP and National Income

• Other Research & Data

– Seasonality and Holidays

– Number of Stores


Variables’ elasticity per category

IRI Analysis

Number of Stores ElasticityGDP Elasticity

0,96

1,84

0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50

PERSONAL CARE BEAUTY

PERSONAL HYGIENE

DAIRY

OTHER HOUSEHOLD…

HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS

Total FMCG

RW

PACKAGED FOOD

BEVERAGES

COOKING AIDS

ALCOHOL DRINKS

SNACKS

FROZEN FOOD

0,59

0,62

0,00 0,50 1,00

PACKAGED FOOD

PERSONAL CARE BEAUTY

PERSONAL HYGIENE

HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS

OTHER HOUSEHOLD…

SNACKS

COOKING AIDS

BEVERAGES

DAIRY

ALCOHOL DRINKS

Total FMCG

RW

FROZEN FOOD

Food & Beverage categories which have positive value trend, have higher elasticities being more sensitive due to GDP & No of stores changes


Forecasting 2018

IRI Scenario Scenario 2

Categories 2016 vs 2015 2017 vs 2016Forecasting

2018

Forecasting

2018

FMCG & RW -6.2% 3.0% 3.1% 4.8%RW -5.8% 6.3% 5.4% 8.2%

FMCG -6.2% 2.3% 2.6% 4.1%

HOUSEHOLD -4.9% -0.6% 0.7% 1.6%

HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS DETERGENTS -4.9% -1.3% 0.5% 1.4%

OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS -5.1% 0.8% 1.0% 1.9%

HBA -5.7% -1.2% 1.4% 1.6%

PERSONAL CARE BEAUTY -4.2% -1.3% 1.3% 1.5%

PERSONAL HYGIENE -7.5% -1.2% 1.5% 1.7%

FOOD -6.3% 3.2% 3.0% 5.4%

PACKAGED FOOD -5.9% 3.7% 3.8% 6.6%

SNACKS -2.6% 4.9% 4.0% 7.1%

DAIRY -10.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8%

FROZEN FOOD -3.5% 8.4% 3.2% 6.3%

COOKING AIDS -5.4% 0.6% 1.4% 4.5%

BEVERAGES -5.9% 5.9% 5.0% 7.8%

ALCOHOL DRINKS -4.9% 3.2% 2.8% 6.0%

• IRI Scenario / GDP under our estimation for the 2018: 1.28% in average & no unexpected changes

• Scenario 2 / National Target of GDP in 2018 is under 2.8%

IRI Results

GDP 2018:

1.28%

GDP 2018:

2. 8%


Summary

1Overall 2017 was a positive year both on value and volume in SM, price trend of FMCG is slightly

negative due to the intensive price promotions although is stable for Random Weight

2Main factors influencing 2017 performance were the slight increase of GDP and the number of

stores due to operation of EYS

3 Positive trend of 2017 in SM, due to channel switching during the second semester

4Food sector including Random Weight had positive performance in 2017,on the other hand both HH

and HBA although improved their performance noticed negative trend

5In 2018 the positive trend will be continue if we have the same conditions in the market. Assuming

that we will not have any further increase of the number of stores the only macroeconomic factor

influencing is GDP

6The first IRi scenario, is GDP to be increased as 2017 and the second more optimistic based

on the National target of the Bank of Greece


Thank you!

super market: overview 2017 forecasting 2018...the negative trend in sales, over the past two years...

Documents