sunum 1-systems thinking

8/10/2019 Sunum 1-Systems Thinking

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IntroductiontoSystems Thinking


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The significant problems we face today

cannot be solved at the same level of

thinking at which they were created.

Albert Einstein

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A system is a group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependentcomponents that form a complex and unified

whole. R. Ross

A system is a perceived whole whose elements hang together becausethey continually affect each other over time and operatetoward a common purpose. A. Kleiner

A system is an entity that maintains its existence and functions as awhole through the interaction of it parts. J. OConnor and I.

McDermott

Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes, recognizing patternsand interrelationships, and learning how to structure thoseinterrelationships in more effective and efficient ways. P.Senge and C. Lannon-Kim


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Founded in 1956 by MIT professor, Jay Forrester.System thinking allows people to make their understandingof social system explicit and improve them in the sameway that people use engineering principles to improve theirunderstanding of mechanical system.

It is use to:-

Examining how we create our own problems Seeing the big picture Structure influences performance

WHAT IS SYSTEMS THINKING?

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A system is something that maintains its existence and functions as a whole through the interaction of its parts. (a system of

people is an organization). Systems have input processes, outputs

and outcomes, with ongoing feedback among these various parts. If one part of the system is removed, the nature of thesystem is changed.

Systems range from very simple to very complex . There arenumerous types of systems. The human body is a good exampleof a system. There are biological systems (the heart, etc.),mechanical systems (thermostat, etc.), human/mechanicalsystems (riding a bicycle, etc.), ecological systems (predator/prey,etc.), and social systems (groups, supply and demand,organization etc.).


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Complex systems , such as social systems, are comprised ofnumerous subsystem s, as well. These subsystems are integratedto accomplish the overall goal of the larger system. Eachsubsystem has its own boundaries of sorts, and includes variousinputs, processes, outputs and outcomes geared to accomplish anoverall goal for the subsystem.

Is A pile of sand a system ?

It is not a system. If one removes a sand particle, you still have a pile of sand. However, a functioning car is a system. Remove thecarburetor and you no longer have a working car.


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SYSTEM THINKING APPROACH

Traditional analysis Systems thinking

Traditional analysis focuses onthe separating the individualpieces of what is being studied; infact, the word analysis actually comes from the root meaning to

break into constituent parts.

Systems thinking, in contrast,focuses on how the thing beingstudied interacts with the otherconstituents of the system a setof elements that interact toproduce behavior of which it is a

part.

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Complex problems that involve helping manyactors see the big picture and not just theirpart of itRecurring problems or those that have beenmade worse by past attempts to fix themIssues where an action affects (or is affectedby) the environment surrounding the issue,either the natural environment or thecompetitive environmentProblems whose solutions are not obvious

Examples of area System Thinking has

proven its value include:

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Encourages us to see the whole as well as the parts.

Systems Thinking Learning to see the world systemically

?? ??

!!!

WHOLE PARTS Holistic Thinking

Multiple (often)restricted views

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Systems thinking focus es on how the thing being studied interactswith the other constituents of the system. This means that insteadof isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied,systems thinking works by expanding its view to take into accountlarger and larger numbers of interactions as an issue is beingstudied.

The nature of systems thinking makes the approach very effectivefor the most difficult types of problems to solve: those involvingcomplex issues, those that depend a great deal on the past or on theactions of others, and those stemming from ineffectivecoordination among those involved.

Systems Thinking Learning to see the world systemically


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Systems Thinking

Webecoist.comMax Barret

Helps us explore interdependencies and looking for patterns.

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Systems Thinking

River Fractal - Hctor Garrido

Helps us understand feedback structures that

change systems over time.

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Systems Thinking

http://www.systems-thinking.org/theWay/theWay.htm

Helps us understand results of our decisions

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System A system is an interrelated set of business proceduresused within one business unit working together for a

purposeA system has ( six to) nine characteristicsA system exists within an environmentA boundary separates a system from its environment

System ComponentsInterrelated ComponentsBoundaryPurposeEnvironmentInterfacesInputOutputConstraints


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Characteristics of a System


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Systems ThinkingImportant System Concepts

Decomposition-- The process of breaking down a system into smaller

components-- Allows the systems analyst to:

Break a system into small, manageable subsystemsFocus on one area at a timeConcentrate on component pertinent to one group of users

Build different components at independent times


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ModularityProcess of dividing a system into modules of a relatively uniform sizeModules simplify system design

CouplingSubsystems that are dependent upon each other are coupled

CohesionExtent to which a subsystem performs a single function


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Logical vs. Physical ModelingLogical System Description

-- Portrays the purpose and function of the system-- Does not tie the description to a specific physicalimplementation

Physical System Description

Focuses on how the system will be materially constructed


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Today's problems come from yesterday's"solutions" !

A (Partial) List of the Laws of Systems Thinking

For example a new Manager is told to control high inventory costs. He solves the problem except that the sales team is now spending 20%more time responding to angry complaints from customers who arewaiting for late shipments, and the rest of the time trying to convince

prospective customers that they can have any color they want so long asits black. As a result sales are down.

Solutions that merely shift the problems from one part of the system toanother often go undetected because those who solved the first problem are different folks than those who inherit the problem.


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The harder you push, the harder thesystem pushes back!

Another systems term for this is compensating feedback. Most of us have experienced compensating feedback - the

harder we work to improve something, the more effort seems tobe required.


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The easy way out usually leads back in ! We typically prefer to intervene in a system at the level of rules suchas information flow, organization structure, reward and control

systems. These elements are more visible and are easier to work.

However, if we look at interrelationships within systems such as peoples deep -seated beliefs and attitudes, our leverage for effectivechange increases. We then come closer to seeing the underlyingreasons why rules organizational structure and work processes taketheir current form.


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The cure can be worse than the disease! Often the easy or familiar solution is very ineffective. Systems thinking refers to short -term improvements leading to long-term

dependency as shifting the burden.


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Variables - an element in a situation which may act or be

acted upon Vary up or down over time (not an event) Nouns or noun phrases (not action words)

Links / Arrows - show the relationship and the direction

of influence between variables

S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changesin relation to another S or + stands for " same direction O or - stands for " opposite direction

or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies

change

Components of Causal Loop Diagrams

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Employee

Performance

Supervisors SupportiveBehavior

Unsupportive

Behavior

Structure

S

S

Reinforcing Loop

Perf.Level

Time

Behavior Over Time

SupportiveBehavior

Employee

Performance

Supervisors SupportiveBehavior

Types of Causal Loop Diagrams

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Discrepancy

Inventory

Adjustment

Structure

ActualInventory

DesiredInventory

Desired Inventory

Time

Behavior Over Time

100

100 - -

100 ++

Actual Inventory

S

S

S

O

Balancing Loop

Types of Causal Loop Diagrams

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A class of tools that capture the "commonstories in systems thinking

Powerful tools for diagnosing problems andidentifying high leverage interventions thatcreates fundamental change

SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES

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1. Fixes that Fail / Backfire

2. Limits to Growth/Success

3. Shifting the Burden / Addiction

4. Tragedy of the Commons

5. Drifting Goals

List of System Thinking Archetype

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UnintendedConsequences

FixProblemSymptom

Delay

SS

S

O

Time

Behavior Over Time

1. Quick Fixes that Fail

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1. Fixes that Fail

Example:An example would be fixing problem of a squeakywheel. Imagine someone who knows nothing aboutmechanics, mistakenly grab a can of water andsplash it on the wheel. With great relief thesqueaking stop for a while, it willreturn more loudly asthe water join forcesto rust the joint.

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1. Fixes that Fail

Prescriptive actions: Increase awareness of the unintended

consequences Cut back on the frequency with which you apply

the fix Try to minimize the undesirable consequences Reframe and address the root problem, give up the

fix that works only on the symtom

Breaking fixes that fail merely alleviating asymptom, not really solving the problem. A twopronged attack of applying fix and findingfundamental solution will help to break theproblem.

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PositiveReinforcement

Structure

Perf.Level

Time

Behavior Over Time

Corrective

Action

Target

DiminishingReturns

Burnout

Growing Action

Actual Performance

S

S

S

O

S

2. Limits to Growth

The Limits to Growth archetype states that a reinforcing process of accelerating growth (or expansion) willencounter a balancing process as the limit of the systems is approached. It hypothesizes that continuing efforts will

produce diminishing returns as one approaches the limits.

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2. Limits to Growth

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2. Limits to GrowthExample:At the beginning of a quality improvement campaign,significant gains in quality and productivity wereachieved. Once this achieved, the level of

improvements plateaus.The next wave of improvementsare more complex and tougher tomanage. Later the lack oforganization-wide support leads tolimited/diminishing quality andproductivity of the whole organization (it becomes

stagnant or diminish).1 - 33


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2. Limits to Growth

Prescriptive actions: Beware of doing more of what worked in the past. If your growth has stalled, look at both reinforcing

and balancing loops to try to find interrelationships

between your success strategies and potentiallimits.

Look for other potential engines of growth. Th e real leverage in limits to growth scenario lies in

its early phases. The choice between plateauing or peaking often

depends on length of balancing loop delay and ourresponse to it.

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3. Shifting the Burden

Quick fixes

Problem/symptom

Source of problem/Root cause

Side effects

+

_

_

+

_

+

+

_ _

Efforts Quick fix

Time

Behavior Over Time

Capacity of systemto fix itself

Problem symptom

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Apply Patches

Damage of Road

Proper RoadContruction

Feeling of Okay

+

_

_

+

_

+

+

_ _

Apply patches

Time

Behavior Over Time

Proper roadconstruction

Damage of road

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Example:Problem of pot holes on the road. The problem is

handled by applying patches with immediate effect,thereby solving the problem for a while. The primary

source of the problem is overlooked, that is theoverall quality of the road construction.

The origin of the problem

should be identified and

solved in the long-term runor else the quality of the

road will be further

diminished. 1 - 37


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Prescriptive actions: Strengthen the long-term solution. If possible, support only long-term solution. If

you must address the symtoms right away, do sowith restraint.

As you strengthen long-term capability, do whatyou can to reduce dependency on the short-termfix.

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Total ActivityGain perIndividualActivity

ResourceLimit

O

S

S

S Time

A

Time

B

As Activity

Bs Activity

Net Gainsfor B

S

S

S

S

Net Gainsfor AS

S

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Investmentin Integration

PerceivedSuccess fromIntegration

S

O

O

Time

A

Time

B

Investmentin features

S

S

S

S

O

O

Success fromProductInvestment

Success fromProductInvestment

Investmentin features

FixedBudget

FixedBudget

Investmentin Integration

DELAY

S

S

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Example:Traffic jam in Kuala Lumpur. Everyone wishes to avoidtraffic jam will use the highway. At first there is roomfor everyone, but after sometimes critical threshold hasbeen reached, each driver brings aboutdecrease in average speed.

As individuals each person feels he orshe is a victim of traffic but in effectthey all conspired as a group to createtraffic jam.

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Prescriptive actions:

In any of the tragedy situations, there must be anoverriding legislation for common good.

To protect common resources some formof regulation should be introduced.

Re-evaluate the nature of the commons to determineif there are ways to replace, renew or substitute theresources before it becomes depleted.

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5. Drifting Goals

Goal Pressure toLower Goal

Gap

Corrective ActionActual

SS

O

SO

S

Delay

Time

Goal

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Perceived DesiredTemperature

Tolerance forTemperature

TemperatureGap

Hop Out

Time

TempS

S

O

S

O

5. Drifting Goals

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Example:If you put a frog in cold water and slowly bringthe water to boil the frog will jump out when itgets uncomfortable or even died in the boiling

waterIf you put a frog in boiling water,it will croak IMMEDIATELY.

5. Drifting Goals

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5. Drifting Goals

Prescriptive actions:

Establish a clear transition plan from current realityto the goal including realistic timeframe to achievethe goal.

Determine whether the drift in performance is theresult of conflicts between the stated goal andimplicit goals in the system.

Anchor the goal to an external frame of reference(benchmarking).

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Systems Thinking Case Study

Crop Damaging by Insects

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When an insect is eating a crop, the conventionalresponse is to spray the crop with a pesticidedesigned to kill that insect.

Putting aside the limited effectiveness of somepesticides and the water and soil pollution they cancause, imagine a perfect pesticide that kills all of theinsects against which it is used and which has noside effects on air, water, or soil.

Is using this pesticide likely to make the farmer orcompany whose crops are being eaten better off?

Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:

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InsectsDamaging Crops

Pesticide Application

O

If we represent the thinking used by thoseapplying the pesticides, it would look like this:

1. The letter indicates how the two variables are related: an s means theychange in the same direction - if one goes up then the other goes up, andan o means they change in the opposite direction - if one goes up thenthe other goes down (or vice versa).

2. This diagram is read a change in the amount of pesticide applied causesthe number of insects damaging crops to change in the oppositedirection.

3. The belief being represented here is that as the amount of pesticideapplied increases, the number of insects damaging crops decreases.

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Total number ofInsects damaging crop

PesticideApplication

S

O

S

Number of Insect ADamaging Crop

Number of Insect B

Number of Insect BDamaging Crop

S

S

O


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4. The problem of crop damage due to insects often does get better - in theshort term.

5. Unfortunately, what frequently happens is that in following years theproblem of crop damage gets worse and worse and the pesticide that

formerly seemed so effective does not seem to help anymore.6. This is because the insect A that was eating the crops was controlling thepopulation of another insect B, either by preying on it or by competing withit.

7. When the pesticide kills the insects A that were eating the crops, iteliminates the control that those insects were applying on the population of

the other insects, insects B).8. Then the population of the insects B that were being controlled explodes

and continue to damage the crops.

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So now how do you solve the problemof Insect B damaging the crop?

Find the solution..


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With this picture of the system in mind, otheractions with better long-term results have been

developed, such as Integrated Pest Management ,which includes controlling the insect eating the

crops by introducing more of its predators into thearea . These methods have been proven effective in

studies conducted by MIT, the National Academyof Sciences, and others, and they also avoidrunning the risk of soil and water pollution.

Reducing Crop Damage by Insects

The solution:

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THE FIFTH DISCIPLINES

To more about Systems Thinking,read this book!

TeamLearning

PersonalMastery

Mental

Models

Shared

Vision

Systems

Thinking

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References

Warfield, J. Societal Systems , Intersystems, 1989.Joseph OConnor & Ian McDermott. The Art of Systems Thinking ,Thorsons, 1997.Senge, P.M.

The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization,Doubleday, 1990.

The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building ALearning Organization, Doubleday, 1994.System Dynamics / Systems Thinking Mega Link Listhttp://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/links/bookmksd.htmThe Way of Systems (System Archetypes)

http://www.outsights.com/systems/theWay/theWay.htmDaniel Aronson, Overview of Systems Thinking, 1996-8http://www.thinking.net

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