summer blockbusters sizing up the hottest movies of the season
DESCRIPTION
Spring has sprung and we are finally seeing the sun again. But even as we turn our attention outdoors, another highly anticipated sign of summer is emerging -The return of Summer Blockbuster season! This year promises to bring plenty of action and thrills to the theater, but will it be enough to entice movie-goers?Alterian analyzed the conversations happening online to determine the most highly anticipated Summer Blockbusters. Will the big buzz equal box office returns? Watch this Alterian webinar and find out! Our Analysis for the first webinar covered May and June Movie releases including:• Thor• Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides • Kung Fu Panda 2• Hangover 2• Cars 2 • Fast Five• Green Lantern• X-Men: First Class• Super 8TRANSCRIPT
Summer Blockbusters May & June Releases
Presented By: Jim Reynolds
Strategic Account Manager – SM2
@jimmyrey
Search Setup In Alterian SM2
Date Range(s): 4/6/2011 – Ongoing Locations / Languages: All Countries & All Languages
Daily Volume – Summer Blockbuster
Analysis
• Total of 181k social media mentions.
• Largest volume of conversation was the release weekend of Fast Five
• 2nd Largest volume of conversation was the release of Thor
Share of Voice Total – Summer Blockbusters
Analysis • 33% Microblogs –
Primarily Twitter, spike with movie releases
• 25% Social Networks –
Mostly Facebook driven by The Vin Diesel Effect*
• 14.5 % Media Types –
Other – Mainstream media discussing the film
• 12% Forums & Boards –
Dedicated movie & Automotive & Comic Book Forums
• All Other Types < 10%
• *Please see slide #26
Share of Voice Trend – Summer Blockbuster
Analysis • Pre-release patterns between types are relatively flat. • Once film & pre-screenings are released trends pick up dramatically • Social Network Data Mirrors Microblogs in most circumstances
Demographics – Summer Blockbuster
Analysis • Conversations predominately US based followed by UK, Canada & Italy • US Based conversations lead by CA followed by TX, NY & IN • Gender mostly male, but skewed based on initial results • Age of author distribution as expected
Film Deep Dive
Summer Film – Kung Fu Panda 2
Analysis • Majority of traffic focused around pre-release press • Media Types Other, followed by Blogs and then microblogs • As we get closer to release film chatter will pick up dramatically
Release Date:
May 27
Summer Film – Kung Fu Panda 2
Analysis • Gender is mostly male and largest age group is above 50 • Sentiment is mostly positive • SM discussion mostly about film, but large # of conversations about other
films
Summer Film – Cars 2
Analysis • Cars traffic spikes first week of March • Media Types - Other followed by Blog and Pixar boards discussing film
Release Date:
June 24
Summer Film – Cars 2
Analysis • Gender mostly male, but age sampling too small to make inference • Sentiment trending mostly positive • Conversation mostly about film and products around film
Summer Film – Pirates of the Caribbean 4
Analysis • Social media conversation is picking up very actively leading up to release • Media Types - Other followed by Blog & Microblogs
Release Date:
May 20
Summer Film – Pirates of the Caribbean 4
Analysis • Gender mostly male and largest age group is 18-24 • Sentiment is mostly positive and is trending positive • Conversation about film + discussion of clips and trailers
Summer Film – Green Lantern
Analysis • Conversation around Green lantern picks up with the release of Fast 5 & Thor • Video/Photo Sharing followed by Media Types & Microblogs
Release Date:
June 17
Summer Film – Green Lantern
Analysis • Audience is dominantly male and 18-24 • Highest negative sentiment of any fill monitored for this presentation • Conversation focused around film + Ryan Reynolds
Summer Film – Hangover 2
Analysis • Conversation relatively flat outside of spike in early March • Unlike other films, conversation is lead via Microblogs and followed by Media
Types - Other and Message Boards
Release Date:
May 26
Summer Film – Hangover 2
Analysis • Gender mostly male and largest age group is 25-34 followed by 18-24 • Sentiment mostly negative with no major trend changes • Conversation movie based with the exception of Liam Neeson
Summer Film – X Men: First Class
Analysis • Very interesting chatter in cyclical spike focused around clips • Media Types- Other followed by blogs and movie related forums
Release Date:
June 3
Summer Film – X Men: First Class
Analysis • Audience mostly male and age distribution is rather even • Sentiment is nearly 50/50 • Discussion focused around film
Summer Film – Super 8
Analysis • Conversation volume was very consistent beyond a spike mid-March. • Media Types - Other followed by Blog, Microblog
Release Date:
June 10
Summer Film – Super 8
Analysis • Gender is a 75/25 split and age is dominantly 18 -24 • Sentiment has a slight lead with positive mentions • Conversation has a JJ Abrams twist to posting with much of the conversation
Summer Film – Thor
Analysis • Conversation spikes with release weekend happening on the 6th • Conversation lead by Microblogs with people discussing film
Release Date:
May 6th
Summer Film – Thor
Analysis • Audience is mostly male with largest age group being 18-24 • Sentiment pre-release was 50/50 and post-release is mostly positive • Conversation around film discussing user feedback “good”, “great”..etc
Summer Film – Fast Five
Analysis • Conversation spikes during release and settles post release of film 2X
previous levels • Conversation lead by Social Networks*, Microblogs & Boards (mostly car
discussion) • *Please see slide 26
Release Date:
April 29
Summer Film – Fast Five
Analysis • Audience is 65/35 male to female and age groups for 18-24 & 25-34 are
almost even • Sentiment is almost even but positive • Conversation focused on reviews of film + audience feedback
Summer Film – Vin Diesel Effect
Analysis • Much of the Fast Five chatter was driven from Vin Diesel’s fanpage • His audience is highly dedicated, with over 30k FB posts about the release of
Fast Five • Stats taken from www.famecount.com & www.facebook.com
Film Comparison
Summer Film – Comparison
Analysis • Fast Five 38.46% • Thor 38.05% • Green Lantern 9% • X-Men: First Class 4% • Pirates of the
Caribbean 4 2.7% • Hangover 2 2.26% • Super 8 2.25% • Cars 2 1.7% • Kung Fu Panda 2 1.5%
Summer Film Trend – Comparison
Analysis • Films pre-release are relatively flat with the exception of leaks • When films launch, traffic spikes and then tails down slowly
Summer Film Sentiment – Comparison
73%
59%
50% 48%
46% 44%
43% 42% 40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
GreenLantern
Hangover 2 X-men:First Class
Fast Five Super 8 Thor Kung FuPanda 2
Pirates ofthe
Caribbean4
Cars 2
Analysis Ranking by Negative Sentiment • Green Lantern • Hangover 2 • X-Men: First Class • Fast Five • Super 8 • Thor • Kung Fu Panda 2 • Pirates of the
Caribbean 4 • Cars 2 Methodology used: Total graded posts, divided by negative posts
Summary
Predictions
• From our view point, we feel that Green Lantern and Hangover 2 have the highest
chance of disappointing box office results based on volume and current sentiment
around these films
• X-Men: First Class and Super 8 are right on the edge of either doing well or under-
performing
• Kung Fu Panda 2, Pirates of the Caribbean 4 & Cars 2 appear to be trending very
well and have a high chance of doing very well
Public Dashboard of all films: http://bit.ly/hottopicSBMJ
THANK YOU!
Please contact us with any questions
Jim Reynolds: [email protected]
@jimmyrey
UK/EU: +44 (0) 117 970 3200 | US: +1 312 704 1700 | Asia/Pac: +61 (2) 9968 2449
Web: www.alterian.com | Blog: www.engagingtimes.com | Twitter: @Alterian
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