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• Proofread• (sub)Headings• Your own words• Stress compensation aspect
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Private-sector jobs: a ‘lost decade’
Unemployment rates, by education level
Teenagers’ unemployment rate, by race
Employment-population ratio
Unemployment, and under-employment
Preparing for Future Changes in the Workforce: Emerging Trends
January 18, 2011
“A Differentiated and Memorable Customer Experience”
• Customized products– iTunes
• Negotiated prices– Not Y
• Flexible places– iPod– iPhone
• Targeted promotion– “hulu effect”
“A Differentiated and Memorable Employee Experience”
• Customized construct– Box vs. amoeba
• Negotiated compensation– More than dollars
• Flexible connection– “company man”
• Targeted communication– Info the way I want it
Most Critical Changes
• Diversity/Immigration• Education• 4 generations
– aging population
Diversity and Immigration
Origins
Caribbean
Cent. Am
South Am.
Europe
AsiaOther
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
54% of all immigrants in US
Small but growing
Native-Born Total Foreign-Born
84%
16%
Educational Attainment
<HS High School Some College BA/BS
5.8%
29.7% 30.0%
34.5%
26.4%25.1%
16.4%
31.1%
Native Born Foreign Born
52%
Foreign-Born Shares
Total Pop. All workers Low-wage workers Lower-skilled workers
11%14%
19%
38%
12%
16%
21%
45%
2000 2005
Skill Levels
• 42% said “adequate”
• 25% moderate deficiencies
• 7% severe deficiencies
Note the differences…..
Project-mgt skills
Team work
Poor employability
Verbal communication
Written communica-tion
English language
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
6%
10%
15%
65%
72%
84%
Hispanic/Latino
• 15.1% of US population• 50% of total growth 2000-2007• Politicians will be politicians……..
EDUKASHUN LEVELS
(OR JACK AND JILL CAN’T READ…OR ADD….OR SUBTRACT…..OR……)
Knowledge workers
• What is a “job?”• Self-managed• Constantly innovate• Continuous learning• Quality counts• Asset, not cost
Fastest growing industries (2008-2018)
Semi-cond.
Science R&D
Med. Equip mfg
Fin. Invest.
A/V mfg
Data/info services
Software
Computer/peripheral mfg
5.9%
6.1%
6.3%
7.3%
8.4%
9.3%
10.5%17.0%
The International Context (top 30)
• 16th in reading skills
• 20th in science
• 26th in math
• 25th in problem solving
Educational Attainment by Race and Ethnicity
1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
20
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
070
10
20
30
40
50
60
White Black Asian Hispanic
5%
5.2%
Fastest growing industries (2008-2018)
Semi-cond.
Science R&D
Med. Equip mfg
Fin. Invest.
A/V mfg
Data/info services
Software
Computer/peripheral mfg
5.9%
6.1%
6.3%
7.3%
8.4%
9.3%
10.5%17.0%
Undergraduate Degrees (top 30)
• 17.6% in science (19th)
• 6% in natural science (8th)
• 3.9% in math/computer science (12th)
• 6.4% in engineering (21st)
Undergraduate Degrees
1980 1990 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
IS Engineering Math Science
63%34%
2006
They’re not staying…..
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Sci. Temp. Sci. Perm. Eng. Temp. Eng. Perm.
So What’s A Poor Boy to Do?
R&D as % GDP1996
No Am – 38.7% Europe – 28.9% Asia - 27.7%
2005 No Am – 35.1% Europe – 25.7% Asia - 34.4%
Higher-Skilled Immigrants
• H1-B– 3 yrs (extendable for 3 yrs)– 65,000 annually (+/- 2 months)– Can apply for “green card”
• Praise– Only way to offset shortage of native-borns
Higher-Skilled Immigants
• Criticisms– “corporate subsidy”
• Not a shortage of native-borns• Depresses wages• Eliminates native-born jobs (AIG)• “indentured servants”
India as High Tech Center
• H1-B visas• 20% Microsoft software engineers• 38% of 2008 H1B holders from India
China?????
• Questionable numbers• Questionable quality• Questionable supply for internal needs
4 GENERATIONS AND AN AGING WORKFORCE
Hot off the presses (1)……• Predicted number of new jobs?
– 525,000 +/-
• How many new jobs?– 431,000
• How many Census jobs?– 411,000
• Unemployment rate?– 9.9% (April)– 9.7% (May)– 322,000 left workforce
Age of Workers
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5% 5%
-9%
18%
48%
15%
Percent Growth in U.S. Population by Age: 2000-2010
Different Patterns of Growth by Age
1. Declining number of mid-career workers
2. Few younger workers entering
3. Rapid growth in the over-55 workforce
Source: US Census Bureau International Data Base
. . . Continuing for some time
Age of Workers
Percent Growth in U.S. Workforce by Age: 2000-2020
under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 55-64 65+-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7% 8% 7%
-10%
3%
73%
54%
Source: US Census Bureau International Data Base
In 2000, Fairly “Young”
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Source: U.S. Census BureauPercent of Population Age 60+ 2000
. . . Rapidly Aging by 2025
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Percent of Population Age 60+ 2025
Life Expectancy at Birth: 1000 - 2000
Source: Census Bureau, 2000
Age
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1900 2000
2530
35 3638
47
76.5
Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates
Source: Age Wave
Tota
l Fer
tility
Rat
e
US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy0
1
2
3
4
3.3
2.8 2.9
3.6
2.0
2.5 2.5
2.0
1.7 1.7 1.61.4 1.3 1.2
1960 20002.1
Four Generations
By the numbers….
76
46
80
75
0
20
40
60
80
Mill
ions
Yers Xers Boomers Matures
Veterans/Matures/Silent Generation
• 1924-1945
Matures
• Loyal• Work is good because it is work• Respect discipline and authority• Common good, not individual good• Don’t like change
Baby Boomers
• 1946-1964
To sum them up…..
• “Me” generation
• Money, title, recognition
• Very competitive
• Build a stellar career
• Workaholics – but now?
And one final comment….
Hot off the presses (2)….
• Employee Benefit Research Institute• Sources of income for 36.5 m Americans >=65
– Social Security (40%)– Pensions/annuities (20%)– Assets (13%)– Earnings (26%)
• The clear message to you is…………..
Xers or Generation X
• 1965-1980
To sum them up….
• Misunderstood
• Very distrustful of institutions
• Flexible and motivated
• Work and life must balance
• Build a portable career
To sum them up….
• Value diversity• Embrace change• Searching for meaningful work• Confident• REALISTIC• UNREALISTIC
Do twentysomethings in your workplace?
• Offer a fresh perspective 8% • Serve as a great source of new talent 17% • Really 'get' the latest tech 7% • Expect too much 30% • Show too little loyalty 14% • Don't have much impact 24%
The Three Big UnknownsAbout The Emerging Workforce
Immigration Will nations change policies to encourage faster immigration?
Outsourcing How fast will it develop? Where?
Retirement Average retirement age continues to lower More retirees remain active Will the average retirement age change?
Source: Demography is De$tiny, The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2003
Workforce challenges
• Limited in availability• Chronologically older• Lacking key skills• Global• Highly diverse• Sharing only health as a core value
Source: Testimony by Tamara J. Erickson to the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, May 2005
Complicated by the Changing Nature of Work
• Conducive to small firms • Virtual and becoming more so• Based on experimentation and
coordination - innovation• Difficult to standardize• Linked by personal technology• Democratic and/or market-based
Source: Testimony by Tamara J. Erickson to the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, May 2005