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Turnaround Value Practices Subject: Turnaround Scenario Analysis

OBJECTIVES

AP-Networks is uniquely qualified to support clients with business resilience, and/or continuity planning in terms of assessing cost and schedule impacts, risks associated with changing the date of their turnarounds and/or scope, and turnaround planning and preparation due to external influences (e.g., pandemics, strikes, geopolitical, and other asymmetric threats).

Some clients are evaluating whether to change a turnaround start date or to split it into more than one event. As these decisions are very complex they require analytical, evidentiary and empirical bases. Seemingly small changes to turnaround strategies can sometimes significantly increase turnaround and business risk.

DELIVERABLE

The primary deliverable of this Turnaround Scenario Analysis will be a report issued and/or presented to executive management, steering team, and turnaround management. The analysis will also support alignment and decision making around business impact, strategies and mitigation planning.

ANALYSIS

AP-Networks is able to provide a data-driven analyses of scenarios to allow clients to quickly adapt to disruptions while maintaining a desired level of business operations, safeguarding their people, assets and brand. The analysis can be conducted using video conferencing and desktop review of input data.

The Turnaround Scenario Analysis will allow the client to redefine strategies and develop mitigation/contingency plans based on the following:

Short term decision-making; considering the immediate impact of client and contractor resources and availability, materials deliveries, level of readiness, risk profile and associated costs.

Longer term decision-making; considering the impact on the long-range plan (e.g., unit, site, corporate), inspection and integrity programs, regulatory limitations and resource challenges in terms of contractor and client staff availability.

This analysis is calibrated to client’s specific needs and the various scenarios under consideration. The full analysis may vary between two and ten days. The typical information that would be gathered to complete this analysis includes, but is not limited to:

§ Scenarios under consideration (e.g., deferring the turnaround, descoping, decoupling, splittingturnarounds)

§ Risks associated with changing the turnaround§ Impact of postponement of a turnaround on other site initiatives, (e.g. other shutdowns)§ Corporate long-range plan for multiple assets (may be multiple sites or units)§ Resource concerns (i.e., organizational capability) and contractor considerations§ Materials orders and shipping§ On-site logistics planning

The following benchmarking tools may be used for this analysis;

§ Cost of Change Calculator§ Turnaround Readiness§ Cost and Schedule Predictability§ Cost and Schedule Competitiveness may be considered if applicable to the scenario

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EXAMPLE RESULTS

AP-NETWORKS

AP-Networks reviews and benchmarks more than 100 turnarounds every year, world-wide. Our experience includes benchmarking individual, site-wide, and corporate-wide turnaround performance. AP-Networks takes the best of this collective experience and develops processes, tools, and systems for its clients, thus creating an unmatched knowledge network of superior turnaround management practices. AP-Networks has benchmarked over 1,950+ turnarounds from dozens of companies across the world spanning a variety of sectors (e.g., refining, petrochemical, chemical, mining, food processing). In addition to gathering data on turnaround outcomes, AP-Networks collects information on the practices and processes used to plan, prepare and execute turnarounds. This information allows us to identify the practices that are driving superior performance in safety, scope control, estimating, planning, risk management, organizational capabilities, execution control. Given the variety of information gathered (i.e. geographical and industry diversity) the database provides an excellent cross-section of industry performance and practices.

Contact AP-Networks today to learn more.

PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL 7

Cost of Change Calculator

§ According to the Cost of Change Calculator the approximate additionalcost is EUR 13.2MM, for a postponement to September 2020.

Results

PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL 3

Predictability

Current TRI and Risk profile

Expected TRI and Adjusted Risk profile

PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL 4

Current and Expected Readiness (TRI)

TrainingRisk

ManagementExecution

Control CommunicationsStartup

ReadinessProcedure

Status

OperationsPlanning

ResourcePlanning

Pre-TurnaroundPlanning

MaterialsManagement

HSE Planning

PlanningPractices

SchedulingPractices Contractors

CostEstimating

Scope of Work InspectionsCapital

Projects

TurnaroundTeam

LessonsLearned

Long RangePlanning

16

4

1

Weak

Average

Strong

TrainingRisk

ManagementExecution

Control CommunicationsStartup

ReadinessProcedure

Status

OperationsPlanning

ResourcePlanning

Pre-TurnaroundPlanning

MaterialsManagement

HSE Planning

PlanningPractices

SchedulingPractices Contractors

CostEstimating

Scope of Work InspectionsCapital

Projects

TurnaroundTeam

LessonsLearned

Long RangePlanning

12

8

1

Weak

Moderate

Strong

Planning Status Team Alignment

TrainingRisk

ManagementExecution

Control CommunicationsStartup

ReadinessProcedure

Status

OperationsPlanning

ResourcePlanning

Pre-TurnaroundPlanning

MaterialsManagement

HSE Planning

PlanningPractices

SchedulingPractices Contractors

CostEstimating

Scope of Work InspectionsCapital

Projects

TurnaroundTeam

LessonsLearned

Long RangePlanning

8

5

8

Weak

Average

Strong

TrainingRisk

ManagementExecution

Control CommunicationsStartup

ReadinessProcedure

Status

OperationsPlanning

ResourcePlanning

Pre-TurnaroundPlanning

MaterialsManagement

HSE Planning

PlanningPractices

SchedulingPractices Contractors

CostEstimating

Scope of Work InspectionsCapital

Projects

TurnaroundTeam

LessonsLearned

Long RangePlanning

9

8

4

Weak

Moderate

Strong

Planning Status Team Alignment

Cur

rent

TR

IEx

pect

ed T

RI

PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL 2

Scenario Analysis

12

2121

28

4341

0

10

20

30

40

50

SCHEDULE PREDICTABILITY COST PREDICTABILITY

Perc

enta

ge S

ched

ule

Slip

or C

ost G

row

th

Schedule and Cost Predictability

Industry Average (TRI) Current TRI Expected TRI

D = 22% D = 13%

Note: This predictability benchmark model is based on actual/estimate performance data and does not reflect competitiveness.

Risks Exposure & Expected Turnaround Readiness Index (TRI) results in higher cost and schedule overruns

Turnaround Value Practices Subject: Turnaround Scenario Analysis