i Mc lc Mc lc ............................................................................................................... i Danh mc bng .................................................................................................. v Danh mc hnh v v biu ............................................................................. v Danh mc t vit tt .......................................................................................... vi ti:SDNGMHNHMNGTHNKINHNHNTOCLNG CC YU T NH HNG N TRN THU TRONG C CH T KHAI T NP ............................................................................................................. 1 CHNG 1. GII THIU ................................................................................. 1 1.1t vn nghin cu ........................................................................... 1 1.2Mc tiu nghin cu .............................................................................. 1 1.3Phng php nghin cu ....................................................................... 2 1.4 ngha cng trnh nghin cu............................................................... 2 1.5Kt cu ti nghin cu ...................................................................... 3 Kt lun chng 1 .......................................................................................... 3 CHNG 2.C S L THUYT V M HNH NGHIN CU ................. 4 2.1Nhng vn l lun c bn v thu ..................................................... 4 2.1.1S ra i v pht trin ca thu ....................................................... 4 2.1.2Bn cht v chc nng ca thu ...................................................... 6 2.2Nhng vn chung v c ch t khai t np thu ................................ 9 2.2.1Khi nim c ch TKTN ................................................................. 9 2.2.2Cc iu kin thc hin c ch t khai t np thu ................... 10 ii 2.2.3Cc c trng v qun l ............................................................... 12 2.2.4S cn thit phi chuyn i theo c ch t k khai, t tnh thu v np thu .................................................................................................... 12 2.3C s l lun v trn thu .................................................................... 13 2.3.1Khi nim trn thu ...................................................................... 14 2.3.2Cc hnh vi trn thu .................................................................... 15 2.3.3Phn bit trn thu v trnh thu ................................................... 16 2.4nh gi cc nghin cu v trn thu v cc yu t nh hng n trn thu ............................................................................................................ 17 2.4.1Trn thu, trnh thu v chi ph thu cc nc ang pht trin -Clemens Fuest v v Adine Riedel (2009) ................................................ 17 2.4.2Trn thu, trnh thu v pht trin ti chnh- Cobham (2005) .... 17 2.4.3c lng cc yu t nh hng n trn thu Malaysia: Phng php nghin cu Neural Network- Razieh Tabandeh (2012) ................... 18 2.4.4Mt s nghin cu khc ................................................................ 20 2.5Cc yu t nh hng n vic trn thu ............................................. 22 2.5.1Gnh nng thu ............................................................................. 22 2.5.2Thu nhp ca i tng np thu .................................................. 22 2.5.3Qui m ca chnh ph ................................................................... 22 2.5.4T l lm pht ............................................................................... 23 2.5.5 m thng mi ........................................................................ 23 2.6M hnh kho st v cc gi thuyt ...................................................... 23 2.6.1M hnh kho st .......................................................................... 23 2.6.2Cc gi thuyt ............................................................................... 24 Kt lun chng 2 ........................................................................................ 25 iii Chng 3.THC TRNG TRN THU TI TPHCM T KHI P DNG C CH T KHAI T NP N NAY ............................................................... 26 3.1Tnh hnh thc hin k khai thu theo c ch t khai t np ti TPHCM . ............................................................................................................ 26 3.1.1Slcnhngthayicasthuthusaukhipdngccht khai t np ................................................................................................ 27 3.1.2Kt qu t c sau hn nm nm thc hin c ch t khai t np . ..................................................................................................... 30 3.2Thc trng trn thu ti TPHCM nhng nm gn y ......................... 32 3.2.1Trn thu ngy cng tng v s v v quy m ............................... 32 3.2.2Thc trng trn thu ca cc DN ti TPHCM nhng nm gn y 35 3.2.3Mt s nghi vn trn thu in hnh TPHCM gn y ............... 40 Kt lun chng 3 ........................................................................................ 43 CHNG 4.C LNG CC YU T NH HNG N TRN THU TPHCM BNG M HNH MNG THN KINH NHN TO .................. 44 4.1M hnh mng thn kinh nhn to (ANN) ........................................... 44 4.1.1C s l thuyt ca m hnh .......................................................... 44 4.1.2 Chng c ng dng m hnh ANN .................................................. 49 4.2S dng m hnh ANN c lng cc yu t tc ng n trn thu TPHCM ........................................................................................................ 50 4.2.1 La chn phn mm x l m hnh .................................................. 50 4.2.2 Cch thc thu thp v x l d liu th ............................................ 50 4.2.3 Qu trnh x l m hnh ................................................................... 52 4.2.4 Phn tch kt qu .............................................................................. 54 Kt lun chng 4 ............................................................................................ 55 iv Chng 5.KTLUNVGIIPHPNHMGIMTHIUHNHVI TRN THU TRONG C CH T KHAI T NP ...................................... 56 5.1Kt lun ............................................................................................... 56 5.2Gii php nhm gim thiu hnh vi trn thu trong c ch t khai t np ............................................................................................................ 56 5.2.1Nhm gii php da vo kt qa m hnh ..................................... 57 5.2.2Nhm gii php t cng tc qun l thu ...................................... 58 5.3Hn ch v hng pht trin ca ti ................................................ 59 5.3.1Hn ch ca ti ......................................................................... 59 5.3.2Hng pht trin ca ti ........................................................... 60 Ti liu tham kho ............................................................................................... i Ting Vit ....................................................................................................... i Ting Anh ...................................................................................................... ii Ph lc .............................................................................................................. iv Ph lc 1. Bng d liu u vo ca m hnh Artificial Neural Network ........... iv Ph lc 2. Tng hp kt qu cng tc kim tra 2012 .......................................... vi v Danh mc bng Bng2-1: Phn bit trn thu v trnh thu ...................................................... 16 Bng3-1: Tnh hnh thu NSNN (tr du th) hng nm giai on 2007-2012 .. 27 Bng3-2: Kt qu thu NSNN phn theo khu vc giai an 2007-2012............. 29 Bng3-3: Kt qu kim k, r sot m s thu trn a bn (n 30/11/2011) .. 32 Bng3-4: Kt qu thanh tra, kim tra thu ti TPHCM giai on 2007- 2012 .. 33 Bng3-5: Kt qu thc hin thanh tra nm 2012 .............................................. 34 Bng3-6: Kt qu thc hin cng tc kim tra nm 2012 so vi nhim v kim tra nm 2012...................................................................................................... 35 Danh mc hnh v v biu Biu 3.1:Tnh hnh thu NSNN (tr du th) hng nm giai on 2007-2012 .. .......................................................................................................................... 28 Biu3.2:TtrngnggpcaccloihnhDNtrongthuNSNNtH SXKD TPHCM nm 2012 .............................................................................. 30 Biu 3.3: Tc tng s n v vi phm, tc tng s tin thu truy thu v pht qua cng tc thanh tra, kim tra giai on 2007-2012 ................................ 33 Biu 3.4: Thu NSNN v thu t DN FDI TP.HCM(2007-2012) ................. 36 Biu 3.5: T trng thu TNDN/Tng s thu thu c t DN FDI TP.HCM .......................................................................................................................... 37 Biu 3.6: Doanh thu v s l ca Coca cola nhng nm gn y .................. 41 Hnh 4.1: Biu th hin mng lan truyn tin 3 lp ca ANN ....................... 45 Hnh 4.2: Qu trnh hot ng ca mt nt c trng ca ANN ......................... 45 Hnh 4.3: Hm logistic ...................................................................................... 46 Hnh 4.4: Chn nhng bin cn phn tch mc tng quan ........................... 53 Hnh 4.5: Biu th hin tng quan gia cc bin u vo v bin u ra53 vi Danh mc t vit tt ANN: Artificial Neural Network CP: Chnh ph DN: Doanh nghip TNT: i tng np thu GTGT: Gi tr gia tng H SXKD: Hot ng sn xut kinh doanh NSNN: Ngn sch nh nc TKTN: T khai t np TNCN: Thu nhp c nhn TNDN: Thu nhp danh nghip TNHH: nhim hu hn TNTX: Tm nhp ti xut TP.HCM: Thnh Ph H Ch Minh UBND: y Ban nhn dn VN: Vit Nam XNK: Xut nhp khu 1 ti: S DNG M HNH MNG THN KINH NHN TO C LNG CC YU T NH HNG N TRN THU TRONG C CH T KHAI T NP CHNG 1.GII THIU 1.1t vn nghin cu Thu lmt trong nhng ngun titr cho chi tiu Chnh ph (CP) cng nhngunthuquantrngnhtcangnschnhnc(NSNN).Tuynhin, qun l thu thu i vi doanh nghip (DN), c bit l TPHCM a phng ctlnggplnnhtchoNSNN,angimtvinhiuthchthckhc nhau.Mttrongnhngthchthclnlsphbincahnhvitrnthu, c bit l trong c ch t khai t np nh hin nay. iu ny dn n nhiu kh khnhnivicquanthutrcscpphitngthuNSNNhngnm m bo nhu cu chi tiu cho mt x hi ang pht trin. Nhn bit c cc yu t tc ng n trn thu cng nh mc nh hng ca chng l v cng cn thittrongvicgimthiuhnhvitiuccny.Ngoira,binghincusp dng m hnh mng thn kinh nhn to (Artificial Neural Network)- mt m hnh cnhiungiquantmvpdngthnhcngtrongcclnhvckhc nhau nh ti chnh, y t, a cht v vt l trong mt vi nm tr li y. 1.2Mc tiu nghin cu Mc tiu nghin cu ti l thu thp, phn tch, tng hp c s l thuyt v c s d liu cho vic trn thu cng nh cc yu t nh hng trong c ch tkhaitnp,gpphnraccgiiphpnhmhnchhnhvigynh hngxutingunthuNSNNny.(Tnhhungca a bnTPHCM).Trli cc cu hi nghin cu: 2 Nhng yu t no nh hng n vic trn thu TPHCM trong c ch t khai t np? Mc nh hng ca cc yu t nh th no?Gii php no gp phn gim thiu hnh vi trn thu ny? 1.3Phng php nghin cu Xydngmhnhdatrnmhnhnghincuccyuttcngntrn thuMalaysiacaccnhmtcgiRaziehTabandeh.Mhnhcxut gm 5 bin: gnh nng thu, thu nhp ca ngi np thu, qui m chnh ph, t llmpht,mthngmi.tisdngphngphpnghincunh lng,tinhnhthuthpdliuthcp,xldliuthngquaphnmm NeuroSolutions 6.0, thc hin qua cc bc : X l v phn tch d liu u vo; Xc nh cc thng s cho m hnh Artificial Neural Network (ANN); La chn bin u vo, u ra cho m hnh; Tin hnh chy m hnh 1.4 ngha cng trnh nghin cu Trn thu l mt trong nhng vn ni tri nc ta hin nay hay c th l TPHCM. Do , cn c nhng cng trnh nghin cu nhm xc nh u l nhntnhhngtihnhvigytnthtngunschqucgiany.ti hngnmctiusdngphntchnhlngnhmxcnhulyut tc ng v mc tc ng ti hnh vi trn thu. y l yu t quan trng nh hng ti vic c quan thu s cn tc ng n nhng yu t no v theo hng no gim thiu tht thu thu. Ti k vng rng kt qu nghin cu t c c th c ng dng vo thc tin nng cao hiu qu qun l thu. Bn cnh , binghincumungii thiumtmhnhangcngdngrngritrn th gii v nhng tin ch ca n trong nhiu lnh vc. Mong rng m hnh mng thnkinhnhntoslmtcngchuchchocngtcphntch,dbo nc ta trong thi gian ti. 3 1.5Kt cu ti nghin cu Ngoi ph lc v ti liutham kho, kt cu ca ti gm 5 chng:Chng 1: Gii thiu Chng 2: C s l thuyt v m hnh nghin cu Chng 3: Thc trng trn thu ti TP.HCM t khi p dng c ch t khai t np n nay Chng4:Sdngmhnhmngthnkinhnhntoclngccyut nh hng n trn thu trong c ch t khai t np Chng5:Ktlunvgiiphpgimthiuhnhvitrnthutrongccht khai t np Kt lun chng 1 Kt thc chng 1 tc gi gii thiu v mc tiu, phng php v ngha cati.ylbcnhhngthchinnghincutrongccchng tip theo. 4 Chng 2.C S L THUYT V M HNH NGHIN CU 2.1Nhng vn l lun c bn v thu 2.1.1 S ra i v pht trin ca thu Lch s pht trin ca x hi loi ngi chng minh rng, thu ra i lmtttyukhchquan,gnlinvisrai,tntivphttrincaNh nc. duy tr s tn ti ca mnh, Nh nc cn c nhng ngun ti chnh chi tiu, trc ht l chi cho vic duy tr v cng c b my cai tr t trung ng n a phng thuc phm vi lnh th m Nh nc ang cai qun; chi cho cc cng vic thuc chc nng ca Nh nc nh: quc phng, an ninh, chi cho xydngvphttrincccshtng;chichoccvnvphclicng cng, v s nghip, v x hi trc mt v lu di.[13] cnguntichnhpngnhucuchitiu,Nhncthngs dngbahnhthcngvinl:quyngpcadn,vaycadnvdng quyn lc Nh nc bt buc dn phi ng gp. Trong hnh thc quyn gp tin v ti sn ca dn v hnh thc vay ca dn l nhng hnh thc khng mang tnh n nh v lu di, thng c Nh nc s dng c gii hn trong mt s trng hp c bit. p ng nhu cu chi tiu thng xuyn, Nh nc dng quynlcchnhtrbucdnphinggpmtphnthunhpcamnhcho Ngn sch Nh nc. y chnh l hnh thc c bn nht huy ng tp trung ngun ti chnh cho Nh nc. Hnh thc Nh nc dng quyn lc chnh tr buc dn ng gp p ng nhu cu chi tiu ca mnh - chnh l thu. Thu lun lun gn cht vi s ra i v pht trin ca Nh nc. Bn cht ca Nh nc quy nh bn cht giai cp ca thu.[13] -Trongchphongkin,hthngthukhonhmhuyngsng gp tin bc ca dn chng nui dng qun i, t chc b my cng quyn, 5 quanlicaitr.Ngidnchngrtt ccphclicngcngtpha Nh nc. -nkhigiaicptsnnmcchnhquyn,giaionuhch trngxyNhnctdo,khngcanthipvohotngkinhtcacclc lng kinh t th trng. Nh nc ch m nhn nhim v gi gn an ninh, quc phng. Thu kha ch ng vai tr huy ng ngun lc ti chnh ti thiu nui sng b my Nh nc v p ng nhu cu chi tiu cng cng khc. Nhng khi bc vo nhng nm 29- 33 ca th k XX, nn kinh t ca cc nc t bn lm vo khng hong. a nn kinh t thotkhi khng hong, Nh nc t sn phi can thip vo hot ng kinh t bng cch lp ra cc chng trnh u t ln v thc hin ti phn phi thu nhp x hi thng qua cc cng c ti chnh. Trong s cc cng c trn th thu l cng c quan trng v sc bn Nh nc thc hin iu chnh nn kinh t.[13] Nh vy, cng vi vic m rng cc chc nng, nhimv ca Nhnc v s pht trin ca cc quan h hngho tin t, cc hnh thc thu ngy cng phong ph hn, cng tc qun l thu ngy cng c hon thin hn v thu tr thnh mt cng c quan trng, c hiu qu ca Nh nc tp trung ngun thuchoNgnschNhncvtcngnisngkinhtxhicat nc. Vit Nam, sau nhiu ln sa i, b sung, c bit l sau ci cch thu bc 1 ( nm 1990 ), bc 2 ( nm 1999 ) th hin tnh pht trin lin tc ca thu, t ch lc hu, bt cp, khng m bo tnh khoa hc v cn nhiu hn ch, hthngthuVitNamdnhonthin,khoahchn,gngihnvph hp hn vi cc qui nh v thu ca khu vc v th gii, m bo thc hin tt cc mc tiu quan trng nh: -L ngun thu ch yu ca ngn sch Nh Nc.-L ng lc thc y sn xut kinh doanh pht trin.-Gp phn thc hin cng bng x hi, bnh ng gia cc thnh phn kinh t.-L cng c ti chnh ch yu ca Nh Nc trong vic qun l, iu tit v 6 m nn kinh t.-Tnh php l cao, d hiu, d lm, d kim tra. [13] 2.1.2Bn cht v chc nng ca thu 2.1.2.1 Bn cht ca thu Thulmtkhonnggpbtbuccacctchc,cnhncho Nh nctheomcvthihncphplutquynh,khngmangtnhcht hon tr trc tip, nhm s dng cho mc ch chung ton x hi. Ngoi khon thu v thu, Ngn sch Nh nc cn c nhng khon thu v phvlph.ylnhngkhonthummttchchaycnhnphitrkhi cmtcquanNhnchoctchc,cnhncNhncuquyn cung cp hng ho, dch v cng cng. Thu l mt cng c ti chnh ca Nh nc, c s dng hnh thnh nn qu tint tp trung nhm s dng chomc ch cng cng. Tuy nhin, v bncht,thukhcvicccngctichnhkhcnhph,lph,gic.v.v. iu ny th hin qua cc c im c bn sau ca thu: (1)Thu lun lun gn lin vi quyn lc Nh nc: c im ny th hin tnh php l ti cao ca thu. Thu l ngha v c bn ca cng dn c quy nh trong Hin Php - o lut gc ca mt quc gia. Vic ban hnh, sa i, b sung, hay bi b bt k mt th thu no cng ch cmtcquanduynhtcthmquyn,lQuchi-Cquanquynlc Nhncticao.MtkhctnhquynlcNhnccngthhinchNh nc khng th thc hin thu thu mt cch tu tin m phi da trn nhng c sphplutnhtnhcxcnhtrongccvnbnphplutdoccc quan quyn lc Nh nc ban hnh. y l c trng c bn nht ca thu nhm phn bit vi tt c cc hnh thc ng vin ti chnh cho Ngn sch Nh nc khc. (2)Thulmtphnthunhpcacctnglpdncbtbucphi np cho Nh nc: 7 cimnythhinrnidungkinhtcathu. Nh ncthchin phng thc phn phi v phn phi li tng sn phm x hi v thu nhp quc dndihnhthcthu,mktqucan lmtbphnthunhpcangi npthucchuyngiaobtbucchoNhncmkhngkmtheobtk mt s cp pht hoc nhng quyn li no khc cho ngi np thu. Vi c im ny, thu khng ging nh cc hnh thc huy ng ti chnh t nguyn hoc hnh thc pht tin tuy c tnh cht bt buc, nhng ch p dng i vi nhng t chc c nhn c hnh vi vi phm php lut. (3)Thulhnhthcchuyngiaothunhpkhngmangtnhcht hon tr trc tip. Cn ph, l ph mang tnh cht hon tr trc tip cho ngi th hng dch v ny. Tnh cht khng hon tr trc tip ca thu c th hin trn cc kha cnh: Th nht, s chuyn giao thu nhp thng qua thu khng mang tnh cht igi,nghalmcthumcctnglptrongxhichuyngiaochoNh nckhnghontondatrnmcnginpthuthahngnhngdch vvhnghocngcngdoNhnccungcp.Nginpthukhngc quynihiNhnccungcphngho,dchvcngcngtrctipcho mnh mi np thu cho Nh nc. Thhai,cckhonthunpchoNhncskhngchontr trctipchonginpthu.Nginpthusnhncmtphncchng ho, dch v cng cng m Nh nc cung cp cho c cng ng, phn gi tr m ngi np thu c hng th khng nht thit tng ng vi khon thu mhnpchoNhnc.cimnycathugiptaphnnhrthu vi cc khon ph, l ph v gi c. Nhvyxtvbncht,thulmthnhthcphnphi,lqutrnh dch chuyn thu nhp x hi mt chiu t mi thnh phn kinh t v cc tng lp dn c vo ngn sch Nh Nc .[13] 2.1.2.2 Chc nng ca thu * Chc nng huy ng tp trung ngun lc ti chnh: 8 Ngay t khi ra i thu lun lun l phngtin huy ng ngunlc ti chnh cho Nh nc. y l chc nng c bn ca thu, c trng cho thu tt c cc dng Nh nc trong tin trnh pht trin ca x hi. V mt lch s, chc nnghuyngtptrungngunlctichnhlchcnngutin,phnnh nguyn nhn s ra i ca thu. Thng qua chc nng huy ng tp trung ngun lc ti chnh ca thu m ccqutinttptrungcaNhncchnhthnhmbocsvt chtchostntivhotngcaNhnc.Chnhchcnngnytora nhngtinNhnctinhnhthamgiaphnphivphnphilitng sn phm x hi v thu nhp quc dn. SphttrinvmrngccchcnngcaNhncihiphitng cng chi tiu ti chnh, do vai tr ca chc nnghuyng tptrung ngun lccathungycngcnngcao.Thngquathumtphnngktng snphmqucnictptrungvoNgnschNhnc.Thutrthnh ngun thu c t trng ln nht trong tng thu Ngn sch Nh nc ca tt c cc nc c nn kinh t th trng. Hin nay hu ht cc nc trn th gii, sau khi thc hin ci cch h thng thu, s thu t thu v ph thng chim ti trn 90% tng s thu Ngn sch Nh nc. * Chc nng iu tit v m nn kinh t ca thu:Chcnngiutitvmnnkinhtcathutngxuthintrong qutrnhthchinchcnnghuy ngtptrung ngunlctichnhcathu, nhng phi n nhng nm u ca th k XX th chc nng ny mi c nhn thc y v s dng rng ri v gn lin vi vai tr iu tit v m nn kinh t caNhnc.Nhncthchinqunl,iutitvmnnkinht-xhi bngnhiubinphpnhgiodcchnhtrttng,hnhchnh,lutphpv kinh t, trong bin php kinh t lm gc. Nh nc cng s dng nhiu cng cqunliutitvmnnkinhtnhcccngctichnh,tint,tn dng.Trongthulmtcngcthuclnhvctichnhvlmttrong nhng cng c sc bn nht c Nh nc s dng iu tit v m nn kinh 9 t. Trong nn kinh t th trng, mi t chc v c nhn u c quyn kinh doanh bt k ngnh ngh, mt hng no m Nh nc khng cm, min rng h phi c ngkkinhdoanhvhonthnhnghavthutheoquynhcaphplut. Bngvicbanhnhhthngphplutvthu,Nhncquynhnhthu hoc khng nh thu, nh thu vi thu sut cao hoc thu sut thp, c chnh sch u i min, gim thu i vi ngnh ngh, mt hng v a bn kinh doanh cth. Thng qua m tc ng v lm thay i mi quan h gia cung v cu trnthtrnggpphnthchiniutitvmnnkinht,mboscn i trong c cu kinh t gia cc ngnh ngh v vng lnh th. Ngoi ra, Nh nc cn s dng thu tc ng trc tip ln cc yu t u vo ca sn xut nh lao ng, vt t, tin vn nhm iu tit hot ng kinh ttrongcnc.Nhnccngsdngthutcngvohotngxut nhp khu nhm thc hin chnh sch thng mi quc t v hi nhp kinh t.Nh vy, thng qua vic thu thu Nh nc thc hin iu tit v kch thch cc hot ng kinh t i vo qu o chung ca nn kinh t quc dn, ph hp vi li ch ca x hi, tc l chc nng iu tit v m nn kinh t ca thu c thc hin.[13] 2.2Nhng vn chung v c ch t khai t np thu 2.2.1Khi nim c ch TKTN -Tkhai-tnp(Selfassessment):txcnh(lnggi)cstnh thu nhm mc ch tnh thu.-Tkhai-tnp:nghahp,itngnpthutxcnhcstnh thu, t tnh thu, t xc nh s thu phi np v t np thu theo ng thi hn qui nh.-Tkhai-tnp:ngharng,angcsdng:lmtphngthc qunlthucxydngtrnnntngstunthcaTNTccth bngvicTNTtthchinccnghavmLutquinhvcquanthu c t chc v thc hin cc bin php qun l thu ph hp vi nguyn tc .10 T ta c khi nim v c ch t k khai, t np thu:T k khai, t np thu l c ch qun l thu trong ngi np thu t gic tun th thc hin cc ngha v thu: ngi np thu cn c cc qui nh ti cc Lut thu xc nh ngha v thu ca mnh, k khai chnh xc, np t khai thu v np thu ng thi hn. C quan thu khng can thip vo vic thc hin ngha v thu ca ngi np thu nu ngi np thu t gic tun th ngha v. C quan thu c trch nhim tuyn truyn, h tr, hng dn ngi np thu hiu r v t gic thc hin ngha v thu, ng thi gim st cht ch vic tun thnghavthucanginpthuvthngquacng tckimtra,thanhtra phthin,xlkpthi,ngnnhnghnhvigianln,trnthuca ngi np thu. Vic gim st, kim tra ca c quan thu c thc hin trn c s c y thng tin v ngi np thu v thc hin phn tch thng tin, nh gi nhng ri ro la chn chnh xc nhng trng hp c vi phm cn thanh tra, kim tra. iu ny s gip khc phc c vic thanh tra, kim tra trn lan, gy lng ph ngun lc cho c quan thu v phin h cho ngi np thu.[10] 2.2.2Cc iu kin thc hin c ch t khai t np thu thchinttcchtkhai,tnpthuihiphicyv ngbnhiuyutnh:trnhvsnhnthccangidnvnghav thu, chnh sch thu, t chc qun l thu, nghip v qun l thu, trnh ca cng chc thu v cc thm quyn cn thit ca c quan thu trong qun l thu:- Ngi dn phi c c hiu bit c bn v ngha v thu, TNT c thc tun th ngha v thu, cng ng ln n nhng hnh vi gian ln trn thu.- Cc c quan, t chc, c nhn lin quan c trch nhim cung cp cho c quanthunhngthngtinvTNTclinquannvicxcnhnghav thu ca TNT.- Chnh sch thu phi r rng, d hiu v d thc hin nh : thu GTGT ch c 1 mc thu sut, t min gim trong thu thu nhp doanh nghip, cc qui nhvkkhai,npthuthunli,phhpviiukinkinhdoanhcai tng np thu.11 - B my qun l thu c quan thu cc cp phi t chc tp trung theo cc chc nng: tuyn truyn, h tr TNT; theo di, x l vic k khai thu; n c thu n v cng ch thu; thanh tra, kim tra thu nhm chuyn mn ha, nng cao nng lc qun l thu tng chc nng. Trn c s c:+ H thng dch v h tr TNT ton din, c cht lng.+ H thng cng ch thu, thu n c hiu qu.+ H thng thanh tra, kim tra c mc tiu r rng.- H thng x pht nghim khc. C quan thu c thm quyn v iu tra, iu kin v cng ch thu pht hin v x l nghim, kp thi nhng trng hp gian ln, trn thu, chy n thu, thu hi tin thu cho NSNN v m bo s cng bng trong qun l thu.- H thng gii quyt khiu ni hot ng c hiu qu.- Qun l thu phi da trn k thut qun l hin i- k thut qun l ri ro,trncsnngcaohiuququnlthngquavictptrungphnb ngun lc qun l ivi cc i tng npthu khng tun th ngha v thu gy ri ro cao, nh hng ln n ngun thu NSNN. thc hin c qun l thu theo k thut qun l ri ro, c quan thu cn phi c:+ Thng tin y v lin tc v TNT trong mt khong thi gian nht nh (t nht l 5 nm). Trn c cc thng tin c quan thu phn tch, phn loi TNT xc nh bin php qun l ph hp vi tng i tng.+ngdngcngnghthngtintrongvictphp,khaithc,sdng thng tin v TNT v tt c cc hot ng qun l ca c quan thu.- Quy trnh qun l ca c quan thu tt v c h tr tin hc ho-Cngchcthucotockinthc,nnglcthchin qun l thu chuyn su, chuyn nghip theo tng chc nng qun l. [10] 12 2.2.3Cc c trng v qun l - Trch nhim, ngha v, quyn hn, nht l trch nhim v hnh vi, c qui nh r rng cho tng pha: ch th qun l - c quan thu v i tng qun l - TNT.- Dn ch trong quan h gia c quan quyn lc Nh nc v TNT.- Nh nc (c quan thu) khng can thip v khng lm thay trch nhim ca TNT.- Nh nc (c quan thu) chuyn i t vic ch yu dng quyn lc qun l chuyn sang ly h tr l chnh. y l nn tng chomt cuc ci cch tondinhthngqunlthu(cicchthch,cicchbmy,cicch phng php qun l, ci cch cc th tc hnh chnh) .- Ch kim tra thu ca c quan thu c chuyn t tin kim sang hu kim. [10] 2.2.4Scnthitphichuynitheocchtkkhai,ttnhthuv np thu Th nht: i vi t chc, c nhn np thu- c quyn t thc hin cc ngha v ca mnh.- Ngoi cc trch nhim, ngha v, quyn hn cqui nhmt cch r rng, cc quyn ca ngi np thu c xc lp v c xu hng tng (i li i vi c quan thu l gim).- Tng c hi bo v cc li ch cho chnh doanh nghip ( t mnh hoc c strgiptbnngoi,nhtliviccquytnharatphacquan thumdoanhnghipchorngquytnhxmphmnquynlica doanh nghip).- c c quan thu, cc cng chc tha hnh trong h thng ngnh thu tn trng.13 - c hng cc dch v thu ngy cng c cht lng hn do thnh qu thu c t cng cuc ci cch hnh chnh t pha c quan thu, tit kim c chi ph, cc phin h trong hnh chnh c gim thiu.-chngshtrtiacacquanthutrongviccungcpcc thng tin, phng tin, cc tr gip k khai thu, np thu v y l nhim v chnh ca c quan thu. Th hai: i vi c quan thu- C quan thu c iu kin ci tin c cu t chc nhm s dng hiu qu nht cc ngun lc hin c, cng tc qun l thu c t chc theo hng ngy cng hin i v chuyn mn ha.- C quan thu c iu kin tp trung ngun lc vo cng tc phc v, h tr cc t chc, c nhn sn xut kinh doanh, to iu kin cho c s kinh doanh hiu v t gic thc hin cc ngha v thu ca mnh i vi NSNN.-Cquanthuciukintngcngthanhtra,kimtravcng chthuchiuquhnivinginpthuckhnngrirocaotrong vic khng tun th thc hin ngha v thu. -Trinkhaithchincchnystoiukinchongnhthuy mnh hin i ho qun l thum c th lymnh vic p dng cng ngh thng tin trong qun l thu.[10] 2.3C s l lun v trn thu Trnthultithngcnhcntrnccphngtintruyn thngichng.Tytheomcnghimtrngvstintrnthu,ngivi phmcthbxphthnhchnhhaybtruycutrchnhimhnhsvti trnthutheoiu161,Lutsai,bsungBLutHnhsnm1999c hiu lc thi hnh t ngy 1.1.2010. Mcdlutphprtnghimkhcivivictrnthu,nhngthct cho thy, hnh vi ny din ra kh ph bin, phc tp v kh kim sot do nhiu nguynnhnkhcnhau,cchquanlnkhchquan.lldokhinmi 14 ngithnglmtngrng,khicmtcnhnhaytchcnotmcch khng ng thu th l biu hin ca vic trn thu v phi b x pht nghim khc.Tuynhin,khngphitrnghpnocngngnhvy. Trongmts trng hp, l trnh thu hp php. Trongkhikhinimtrnthuququenthucthkhinimtrnh thu cn kh mi m ti Vit Nam. N ch mi xut hin t khong nm 1994, khicccngtylutvkimtonncngoibtucungcpdchvtvn thu ti Vit Nam. Theo gii thch ca B Ti chnh, t chc, c nhn trong qu trnh k khai, quyttonthuchnhvikkhai,xcnhkhngngcnctnhthutheo quynhcatngscthuvcchnhviviphm khclmgimsthuphi nphoclmtngsthuchonhoccmin,gim,nhngsliuv ccnghipvkinhtphtsinhlinquannvicxcnhnghavthu c phn nh y trn s sch k ton v trn bo co ti chnh n v gi c quanthutheongquynhthchacncktlunlhnhvitrn thu1. 2.3.1Khi nim trn thu Hnh vi trn thu lhnh vi ca c nhn, t chc vi phm cc quy nh caphplutvthu lmgimsthuphinphoclmtngsthuc hon hoc c min, gim. Theo Ngh nh 100/2004/N-CP2 Richardson(2008)xcnhhnhvitrnthulhnhvicviphm phpluthoccchotnglinquantrctipnmtviphmphplutv thu trn vic np thu3 1 Theo cng vn s 8585/BTC-TCT ngy 8/7/2005 ca B Ti chnh hng dn xc nh hnh vi trn thu 2 Ngy ban hnh 25/04/2004. Ht hn hiu lc t ngy 01/07/2007 3 The Relationship Between Culture and Tax Evasion Across Countries Additional Evidence and Extensions. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 17: 67 78 15 TheoTS. NguynThLan(2009)thtrnthulhnhvicviphm phplutcaitngnpthubngmihnhthc,thon lmgim s thu phi np trong k cho Nh nc4.2.3.2Cc hnh vi trn thu 1. Khng np h s ng k thu; khngnp h s khai thu; nph s khai thu sau chn mi ngy, k t ngy ht thi hn np h s khai thu hoc ngy ht thi hn gia hn np h s khai thu; 2. Khng ghi chp trong s k ton cc khon thu lin quan n vic xc nh s tin thu phi np; 3. Khng xut ho n khi bn hng ho, dch v hoc ghi gi tr trn ho n bn hng thp hn gi tr thanh ton thc t ca hng ho, dch v bn; 4. S dng ho n, chng t bt hp php hch ton hng ho, nguyn liu u vo trong hot ng pht sinh ngha v thu lm gim s tin thu phi nphoclmtngstinthucmin,stinthucgimhoctng s tin thu c khu tr, s tin thu c hon; 5. S dng chng t, ti liu khng hp php khc xc nh sai s tin thu phi np, s tin thu c hon; 6. Khai sai vi thc t hng haxut khu, nhp khum khng khai b sunghskhaithusaukhihnghacthngquantrongthigiansu mi ngy, k t ngy ng k t khai hi quan; 7.Ckhngkkhaihockhaisaiv thu ivihnghaxutkhu, nhp khu; 8.Cuktvingigihngnhpkhuhnghonhmmcchtrn thu; 4Cc gii php hn ch vic trn thu v trnh thu ca cc cng ty a quc gia hot ng trn lnh th Vit Nam, lun vn thc s kinh t. 16 9. Sdnghnghocmin thu khngng vimc ch quy nh m khng khai thu. Theo iu 108, Lut qun l thu s 78/2006/QH11 2.3.3Phn bit trn thu v trnh thu Kim(2008) cho rng trn thu l bt hp php, trong khi trnhthu l mt cchhpphplmgimgnhnngthu.Trongmtnghincukhc,Sandmo (2004) cp n vic trnh thu l da vo cc k h trong php lut v ngi np thu khng cn lo lng v vic b pht hin khi c gng tm mt gii php gim s thu phi np. Bng2-1: Phn bit trn thu v trnh thu TRN THUTRNH THU NH NGHA L hnh vi c nhn, t chc vi phm cc quy nh ca php lut v thu lm gim s thu phi np hoc lm tng s thu c hon hoc uc min , gim L khai thc hp php cc c ch thu gim khon thu phi np bng cc phng tin trong khun kh php lut v khai bo cc thng tin trng yu cho c quan thu CCH THC -Chegiuthngtinmlra phicungcpchocquan nh nc -Torathngtinkhngc tht -Vndngccchnhschui thu -pdngcckhongtrngm phplutchaquynhthc hin cc giao dch KT QU -C th b x pht hnh chnh haybtruycutrchnhim hnh s -Mang n cho doanh nghip gii php ti u v thu m khng vi phm php lut. Ngun: Tc gi t tng hp 17 2.4nh gi cc nghin cu v trn thu v cc yu t nh hng n trn thu 2.4.1Trn thu, trnh thu v chi ph thu cc nc ang pht trin -Clemens Fuest v v Adine Riedel 5(2009) Bi nghin cu ny bo co kho st tng hp cc nghin cu nh lng v tht thu thu do trnh v trn thu ti cc nc ang pht trin, ng thi bn v vai tr ca chi ph thu v cc yu t chiphi khnng huy ng ngun thu thu. Theo bi nghin cu, dch v cng v c s h tng l nhng nhn t ch chtchophttrinvtngtrng.Tuyvy,nhiuncangphttrinkhng thucmcthucnthitsdngchokhuvccng.Nm2005,tl trung bnh ca thu/GDP cc nc pht trin t khong 35%. T l tng ng cc nc ang pht trin l 15% v nhm cc nc ngho nht l 12%. iu ny phn nh s yu km ca cc nc ang pht trin trong vic tng ngun thu nhm p ng nhu cu ca dch v cng. Cc nghin cu hin nay v tht thu thu do trnh v trn thu cc nc ang pht trin u phn bit gia nhn t trong nc v nhn t quc t. Nhnttrongncgmtnhtrngtrnthuxyratrongnnkinht ngm. Nhn t quc t gm vic iu chuyn li nhun gia cc chi nhnh trong cc tp on a quc gia v vic nm gi ti sn nc ngoi ca cc cng ty t nhn. 2.4.2 Trn thu, trnh thu v pht trin ti chnh- Cobham6 (2005) y l nghin cu c trch dn rng ri nht v nhn t trong nc i vi tht thu thu . Nghin cu ny c tnh rng, cc nc ang pht trin mt 285tUSDhngnmdotrnthutinnkinhtngm.Cchtnhnyca 5 Tax evasion, tax avoidance and tax expenditures in developing countries: A review of the literature. Report prepared for the UK Department for International Development (DFID). 6 Tax evasion, tax avoidance and development finance, Working Paper Number 129 18 Cobham da trn c tnh quy m nn kinh t ngm ca Schneider. Mc d cch tip cn ny ca Cobham cn mt s hn ch, nhng iu quan trng nht l s liu ca Cobham a ra nu trn khng nn hiu l s tng thu thu c th t c nu vic thc thi php lut v thu tt hn hoc nu p dng cc bin php chnh sch khc. Mt s nguyn nhn c th l gii vn ny l: - Trn thc t, khng th nh thu vo mi hot ng kinh t trong nn kinh t ngm. - Quy m c tnh ca nn kinh t ngm c th l ch s phn nh sai lch v tht thu thu do 3 yu t: + Quy m nn kinh t ngm c th l kt qu ca s la chn chnh sch ccnnhccaccncangphttrin.iunyngmtnghchlrng victhuhpnnkinhtngmcthkhnglmtngdoanhthuthumcng khng v phc li x hi. + Hot ng ca nn kinh t ngm bao gm c hot ng bt hp php, n s phi ngng li nu b pht hin v do s khng to ra doanh thu thu. +ctnhnnkinhtngmcaSchneideraraphichiumt cch thn trng do phng php c lng m Schneider s dng cn c nhng hn ch. 2.4.3c lng cc yu t nh hng n trn thu Malaysia: Phng php nghin cu Neural Network- Razieh Tabandeh7 (2012) Khng nh cc nc pht trin, cc nc ang pht trin c rt t nghin cu v trn thu v cc yu t nh hng n trn thu. Nghin cua ra gi thuyt c 5 yu t chnh nh hng n trn thu l gnh nng thu, thu nhp ca TNT, qui m CP, t l lm pht v m thngmi.Khcvinhngnghincutrc,hpdngphngphp 7EstimatingFactorsAffectingTaxEvasioninMalaysia.ANeuralNetworkMethodAnalysis, PROSIDING PERKEM VII, JILID 2 (2012) 1524-1535. 19 Neural Network cho d liu ca Malaysia t 1963-2010. Kt qu l c nm yu t trn u c nh hng n trn thu, trong bin thu nhp ca TNT vi h s (-2.23) c tcngmnh nht. H s nycho thy rng cmtmi quan h nghch bin gia thu nhp ca TNT v trn thu. Embaye (2007) trong nghin cu trng hp ca chu Phi cho thy mi quan h gia thu nhp ca TNT v trn thu l t l thun. gii thch cho mu thun ny, Razieh Tabandeh lp lun rng tc ng ca thu nhp TNT cn ph thuc vo mc thu sut. Sau khi tng thu nhp, nu cc CP tng thu sut th TNT s vn tm cch trn thu lm cho trn thu tng ln v ngc li. Malaysia, do mc thu sut thu thu nhp gimtminmtrcnnaynnktqunycngkhngcglkh hiu.Vihs(-0.56),mthngmicngctcngngcchiun trn thu. Hn ch thng mi vi cc nc dn n s gia tng hng nhp lu v dotnhtrngtrnthucngtngln.CranevNourzad(1986),Caballv Panade(2004)cngaraktluntngt.Nhbit,lmphtcthnh hng n quyt nh ca ngi np thu. Khi t l lm pht cao, ngi np thu cxuhngtmcchtngthunhpkhdngvtrnthulmttrongscc phng n. Da trn h s 1.58, mi quan h gia qui m ca CP v thu trn l t l thun. Aignet et al. (1988), Schneider v Savasan (2007) cng tm thy cng mt kt qu trong binghin cu ca mnh. Khi qui m ca CP tng, vic kim sottnglnhvctrongnnkinhtskhkhnhn,mtkhc,ccquynh php lut cng i hi khc khe hn dn n tng cc hot ng trong nn kinh tngm,vtrnthustngln.Gnhnngthulmtyutkhcgytrn thu. Kt qu m hnh cho thy mt mi quan h ng bin gia gnh nng thu v trn thu, nhng mc thu sut thp Malaysia khin bin ny c mc nh hngkhngcaosoviccbinkhc.Brooks(2001),Savasan(2003), Dell'Anno (2007), Dell'Annoet al. (2004), vSchneider v Savasan(2007) cng a ra kt lun tng t trong bi nghin cu ca mnh. 20 2.4.4Mt s nghin cu khc Ccnghincutrcyvhnhvitrnthuthngtptrungvocc yutgyratrnthuvolngstinthutrn.Mttrongnhngnguyn nhn chnh gy ra trn thu l gnh nng thu. Nhiu nh nghin cu nh Brooks (2001),Savasan(2003), Dell'Anno(2007),Dell'Annoetal.(2004),Schneiderv Savasan(2007)chothyrngtnggnhnngthusdnncchotng trongnnkinhtngm8vtrnthu.BayervSutter(2008)iutramiquan h gia gnh nng thu v trn thu, cho thy gnh nng thu qu ln s dn n mtsgiatngmnhmtrongutxhi,dotrnthustngln.Ni cchkhcnghincukimtratcngcathusutntrnthutrongnn kinh t chu u, Bayer (2006) cho thy mc thu sut cao hn dn n trn thu nhiuhn.CebulavSaadatmand(2005)chothythusutthuthunhpcao hn dn n tng trn thu i vi M trong thi gian 1967 -1997. Ccyutkhcquantrnggyratrnthultllmpht,thunhp, tht nghip, qui m ca CP v cng ca cc quy nh v m ca thng mi. Nhiunhnghincu(CranevNorzad1986;Fishlowv1994Friedman, Caball v Panade 2004) iu tra cc mi quan h gia t l lm pht, trn thu i vi cc nn kinh t M v kt lun rng t l lm pht c tc ng cng chiu n hnh vi trn thu. Kt qu tng t cng c tm thy trong nghin cu ca Iran. V d, Sameti et al. (2009) iu tra cc mi quan h gia nn kinh t ngm v t l lm pht ca Iran trong thi gian 1965 - 2005. S dng cc m hnh lp li, h kt lun rng mi quan h gia t l lm pht v nn kinh t ngm l tch cc. V thu nhp, Embaye (2007) iu tra cc mi quan h gia thu nhp v trn 8 Theo Paul A Samuelson, Wiliam D. Nordhalls (1948), Kinh t hc, NXB ti chnh, ti bn ln 1 (2007), nnkinh t ngm l vvn cc hot ng khng c khai bo cho chnh ph. nh nh bc, mi dm, bun bn ma ty, cng vic ca nhng ngi nhp c bt hp php, hot ng dch v i dch v, khai khng ti khon chi tiu, bun lu v k c trng cy nng sn nh. Hu ht cc hot ng ngm xut pht t ng c mong mun gim thu hoc trnh s kim sot hay pht ca chnh ph. 21 thuNamPhi,ktquchothymiquanhgiathunhp(GDPbnhqun u ngi) v trn thu l ng bin, nhng thng k khng ng k. Ccyutkhcgyrannkinhtngm(trongcngbaogmtrn thu) l tht nghip. S dng phng php nghin cu lp li da trn l thuyt bin cu trc tim n, Dell'Anno et al. (2004) cho thy t l tht nghip l yu t quan trng gy ra nn kinh t ngm Php, Ty Ban Nha v Hy Lp. Cc nghin cu khc nh Dell'Anno (2007) v Sameti et al. (2009) cng c tm thy cng mt kt qu B o Nha v Iran. Trn thu cng gy rabi qui m ca CP v h thng php lut. Khi qui m CP tng, CP c th gp kh khn trong vic kim sot dn n tng trn thu. Aigneret al. (1988), Schneider Savasan (2007) v Sameti et al. (2009) nghin cumiquanhgiaquimcaCP,hthngphplutvnnkinhtngm. Ngoira,Sametiet.al(2009)tmthyrngmcathngmicngcth nh hng n hnh vi trn thu. Php lut khc khe v hn ch thng mi ca CP cng c th dn n s gia tng ca hng nhp lu v do trn thu s tng ln. Kasipillai et al. (2003) cho thy rng yu t khc gy ra trn thu l vn ha. H nh gi nh hng ca gio dc v vic tun th thu trong s cc sinh vin i hc Malaysia, v thy rng cmtmiquan h cht ch giagio dc v tunththu.CcnghincunbiJain(1987)cngphthinrarng cu trc thu phc tp, nhn vin khng trung thc, thu sut cao l yu t gy ra trn thu n . VNvMalaysiaulnhngncangphttrintrongkhuvcng Nam . Mc d cn thua km v trnh pht trin nhng nhn chung nc ta c nhiu nt tng ngv kinh t, x hi vi Malaysia, c bit l tnh trng trn thungycngphbin.ChnhvthkhipdngtiVN,tcgiaragi thuyt l vic trn thu chu tc ng ca cc yu t sau: (1) Gnh nng thu, (2) Thu nhp ca TNT, (3) Qui m CP, (4) T l lm pht, (5) m thng mi, tng t nh bi nghin cu trng hp Malaysia ca Razieh Tabandeh. 22 2.5Cc yu t nh hng n vic trn thu 2.5.1Gnh nng thu Gnhnngthucobngcchsdngtlphntrmcasthu thutrntngsnphmtrongnc.KtqunghincucaRaziehTabandeh (2011) cho thy gnh nng thu c tc ng tch cc n trn thu. Khi phi np thu cng nhiu, TNT s cng tm cch trn thu. Tng t nhng nghin cu khc (Schneider (1994), Brooks (2001), Dell'Anno et al. (2004),Savasan (2003), Dell'Anno(2007),SchneidervSavasan(2007)),nghincunysdngtl phn trm tng thu t thu trn tng sn phm trong nc nh l mt i din tnh ton gnh nng thu. 2.5.2Thu nhp ca i tng np thu Da trn cc nghin cu l thuyt v thc nghim, mt s thay i trong thunhpcthdnnthayitrongsthuthu.Trongccnghincuthc nghim,Embaye(2007)chothyrngcmtmiquanhchcchgiathu nhp(GDPbnhqunungi)vhnhvitrnthuNamPhi.Razieh Tabandeh (2011) kt lun rng thu nhp ca TNT l yu t tc ng mnh nht n trn thu. Khi thu nhp cng cao TNT cng c t ng c trn thu. Thu nhp ca TNT c i din bng t l GDP (tnh theo VND) trn dn s. 2.5.3Qui m ca chnh ph Qui m ca CP v h thng php lut l nhng yu t quan trng khc c nhhngngkntrnthu.Aigneretal.(1988),SchneidervSavasan (2007) cho thy rng php lut cng kht khe s dn n tng cc hot ng trong nn kinh t ngm. Razieh Tabandeh (2011) th cho rngqui m CP cng ln s khin cho trn thu tng. Trong nghin cu ny, tc gi s dng t l phn trm ca chi tiu CP trn GDP nh l mt i din cho qui m ca CP, tng t nh nghincucaAigneretal.(1988),Dell'Annoetal.(2004)vSametietal. (2009). 23 2.5.4T l lm pht Nhiunhnghincu(CranevNourzad1986;FishlowvFriedman 1994; Caball v Panade 2004) cho thy t l lm pht l yu t chnh gy ra trn thu.Lmphtcaokhinchoitngnpthutmcchtrnthugithu nhp kh dng ca h. 2.5.5 m thng mi Ccnhhochnhchnhschcthsdngccchnhschkhcnhau nhcmnhpkhu,xutkhu,hnchhocchm dtquanhkinhdoanhvi mt quc gia no , phn phi s lng nhp khu hoc xut khu hng ho v hu ht cc chnh sch hnh chnh dn n nn kinh t ngm (Ashraf - Zadeh v Mehregan2000).Sametiet.al(2009)trongnghincutrnghpcaIrancho thy rng c mt mi quan h nghch bin gia m thng mi v trn thu. Trongnghincuny,tcgisdngtlxutnhpkhutrnGDPnhi din cho bin m thng mi. (Nghin cu tng t cng c thc hin bi Sameti et.al (2009)). 2.6M hnh kho st v cc gi thuyt 2.6.1M hnh kho st Da trn cc nghin cu l thuyt v thc nghim th c nhiu yu t gy ra trn thu. Trong nghin cu ny tc gi la chnmt s yu t chnh c nh hngntrnthunhnghincutrnghpMalaysiacatcgiRazieh Tabandeh. Trn thu c th c vit di dng hm nh sau: ) , , , , ( OP Y G TB f TE = -TE l trn thu. Nghin cu ca Razieh Tabandeh s dng C/M2 nh l mt i dinchotrnthu.TipcntngtcthchinbiTanzi(1982)v Embaye (2007)). C/M2 l t l tin mnh trn cung tin M2. Tc gi lp lun rng nhiu hot ng trong nn kinh t ngm din ra bng tin mt thay v qua ti khonngnhngnhmtrnhsphthincacquanthu,do,tlC/M2 caobiuthchocungtinM2thp,haynicchkhccchotngbngtin 24 mt cao v trn thu cng tng. Ngi dn cc nc pht trin t s dng tin mtbilngnhngchlmnhimvgitinchoh,bt cdchvlnnh no cng u c th thanh ton bng th. nc ta th ngc li, ngay c nhiu dch v cao cp cng khng c phng thc thanh ton ny, trong khi ngn hng th lm dch v hn l phc v. Chnh v th cch tip cn ny vn cha ph hp trong trng hp nghin cu ca TPHCM. Hn na, s liu C/M2 vn cha uc thng k cho TPHCM nn tc gi c tnh s tht thu thu da trn phng php tip cn vi m thng qua s liu thanh tra, kim tra ca c quan thu.-TB l gnh nng thu v c tnh qua t l doanh thu thu trn GDP. -G l qui m ca CP v c o bng t l chi tiu CP so vi GDP. -Y(GDP u ngi) l thu nhp ca ngi np thu tnh theo GDP chia cho s dn. - l t l lm pht (t l phn trm thay i trong ch s gi tiu dng). -VOPlmthngmictnhtonnhtltngxutkhuvnhp khu so vi GDP.2.6.2Cc gi thuyt T m hnh tc gi a ra cc gi thuyt sau: H1: Gnh nng thu c tc ng cng chiu n trn thu TPHCM. H2: Thu nhp ca TNT c tc ng ngc chiu n trn thu TPHCM. H3: Qui m CP c tc ng cng chiu n trn thu TPHCM. H4: T l lm pht c tc ng cng chiu n trn thu TPHCM. H5: m thng mi c tc ng ngc chiu n trn thu TPHCM. 25 Kt lun chng 2 Ktthcchng2,tcginghincuvmt lthuytnhngkhacnh trngyuvtrnthuvccyutnhhngcngnhmhnhNeural Networktrongkthutphntch,dbo.Thamkhotnhngbinghincu trc v ng dng vo tnh hung ca a bn TPHCM, tc gi a ra v gii thiuvnmyutchnh tcngtihnhvi trnthu.l:(1) Gnhnng thu, (2) Thu nhp ca ngi np thu, (3) Qui m chnh ph, (4) T l lm pht, (5)mthngmi.lcstcgiphntchsuhntmraul nhn t chnh tc ng ti hnh vi trn thu trong chng 4. 26 Chng 3. THC TRNG TRN THU TI TPHCM T KHI P DNG C CH T KHAI T NP N NAY 3.1Tnhhnhthchinkkhaithutheocchtkhaitnpti TPHCM TP H Ch Minh, mt trung tm kinh t nng ng nht c nc vi s i tngkinhdoanhnnaygn30nghnDNv160nghncssnxut,kinh doanh.T ngy 1-1-2004, Cc Thu TP H Ch Minh c ngnh thu la chn lm th im c ch DN t k khai, t tnh thu, t np thu vo NSNN, gi tt l c ch t khai np. Cc Thu TP H Ch Minh t chc tp hun cho cc DN th im v k khai thu; mt s chnh sch, ch nh k khai thu GTGT; thu TNDN; ch hon thu, vic s dng qun l ha n chng t; chnh sch u i min gim thu. Son tho, in ti liu v c ch t khai, t np thu, gii p vngmccaccDNlmthimTngy5nngy10hngthng, Phng t khai np gi DN t khai thu GTGT, thu TNDN k khai v np li cho c quanthu trctip hoc quabu in. Nhng thng u bng, mt s DN np t khai thu chm, nhng sau 9 thng th im 100% s DN np ng hn, kp thi, y cho c quan thu. Trong su thng u nm 2004, 340 DN np 5.225 t ng, t 58% d ton php lnh, tng 57% so vi s np cng k ca DN lm im.9 T nm 2007, chnh sch thu to thun li cho cng tc thu, c bit l vic trin khai Lut Qun L Thu c hiu lc thi hnh t 01/07/2007 gp 9http://www.gdt.gov.vn/wps/wcm/connect/GDT+Content/sa_gdt/sa_news/sa_news_tax/100113_127254?presentationTemplate=GDT%20Content/pt_new_detail_print 27 phn lm tng trng ngun thu: DN thc hin c ch t khai np, ch ng k khai v np thu; c quan thu tng cng gii quyt cc vng mc v thu v th tc hnh chnh. 3.1.1Slcnhngthayicasthuthusaukhipdngccht khai t np Bng3-1: Tnh hnh thu NSNN (tr du th) hng nm giai on 2007-2012 NM D ton nm n (t ng) c thc hin nm n (t ng) % Thc hin nm n so vi D ton nm n Cng k nm n-1 200741.069,544.908 109.35133.82 200851.015,262.661 122.83139.53 200963.12764.746 102.56103.33 201084.80087.413 103.08135.01 201198.996105.167,6106.23120.31 2012123.300109.07688.46103.72 Ngun:Cc thu TPHCM Quabngsliuvtnhhnhthchinngnschhngnmchothy ngnh thu TPHCM t chc cng tc hnh thu t ch tiu ngn sch ca TP vtrungnggiao.McngvinvoNSNNhngnmutngvhuht u vt d ton php lnh ra 28 Biu 3.1:Tnh hnh thu NSNN (tr du th) hng nm giai on 2007-2012 Tbiutacththygiaion2007-2012,thuniautnghn nmtrcvitctngthubnhqunhngnm19,42%10.Ngoitrnm 2012, thu ni a hng nm u vt d ton; trong , nm 2008 vt d ton cao nht n 22,83%.Nm2008tuycnhiukhkhndotnh hnhkinhtthgiinichung v Vit Nam ni ring c nhiu bin ng phc tp, nh hng n cn cn iu titvm,nhtltrongqunlnhncvtichnh.Tuynhin,visquan tm lnh, ch o ca ng, ca Quc Hi, Chnh Ph, s linh ng kp thi ca UBND TP trong iuhnh qun l nh nc trn a bn, s phi hp ng b gia cc cp, cc ngnh n lc, phn u cao, a kinh t thnh ph vt qua cckhkhn,ththchnhmduytrhotngsnxutkinhdoanh,kimch lmpht,mbothchinccnhimvvqunlnhnc.Ktqunm 2008tcphttrinkinhttrnabnvngicmctngtrngcao, tngsnphmnia(GDP)nm2008t11%(bng1,7lnsoviGDPca cnc)tongunthugipchoCcThuhonthnhnhimvchnhtrca mnh. V mt cng tc qun l thu: Nm 2008 cng tc qun l thu c nhng thun li khi vic p dng Lut Qun L thu cng vi vic ci cch t chc b my vn hnh theo chc nng sau mt nm i vo thc hin pht huy hiu lc, hiuqu;sngthuncanginpthungycngcaolktqucaqu 10 Tc gi t tnh ton t s liu bo co Cc thu TPHCM 29 trnh thc hin tt cng tc tuyn truyn h tr i tng np thu ti Cc Thu TPtrongccnmqua;ngthithcchphnhkkhainpthucangi np thu tt hn. Ngoi ra trong nm 2008 cn thu c mt s khon thu khc nh: ngun thu t a c do dn tch ca cc nm trc np trong nm 2008; thu t ngun u gi quyn SD ca cc DN. Nm2012,mcdtngthuNSNNt101,74%dton phplnhnm, tng15,98%sovinm2011nhngthunialikhngtdtondonn kinh t tng trng khng nh d kin. Cc DN vn cha th vt qua kh khn, vnkodikhlu;tctngtrngtngsnphmnia(GDP)t 9,2%(khochl10%)nhhngnvicthuNSNN,trongkhidtonthu nm 2012 trong hot ng sn xut kinh doanh tng 33% so vi s thc hin nm 2011; s DN, h kinh doanh ngng ngh, gii th trong nm 2012 nhiu hn nm trc;tnhhnhkkhaicphtsinhthugitrgiatngphinptttrng thp; kh nng thanh ton km dn n s n thu tng. l nguyn nhn khin s thu khng t d ton ra d vn tng so vi nm trc. Bng3-2: Kt qu thu NSNN phn theo khu vc giai an 2007-2012 n v: t ng CH TIU NM 200720082009201020112012 TngthuNSNN trn a bn 50.99872.71678.173105.147131.967,6150.876 ThutH SXKD 31.27144.65147.33661.60071.82972.601 I.DNNN 11.65615.86116.79421.29123.22920.943 -DNNN Trung ng 7.3619.0889.51110.75513.21011.966 30 -DNNN a phng 4.2956.7737.28210.53510.0198.976 II.DN c vn TNN 9.38313.64614.54217.69723.00024.979 III.DN ngoi QD 10.23115.14315.99922.61125.60026.678 Thu khc 19.72728.06530.83743.54760.138,678.275 Ngun:Cc thu TPHCM Biu 3.2:T trng ng gp ca cc loi hnh DN trong thu NSNN t H SXKD TPHCM nm 2012 3.1.2Kt qu t c sau hn nm nm thc hin c ch t khai t np V pha TNT: - nng cao c tnh tun th ca ngi np thu, th hin vic np t khai v np thu ng hn vi t l cao hn, cht lng tt hn, c bit s n ng thu gim ng k.- Tnh hnh np t khai: trong thi gian u, tnh trng np t khai chm do c s kinh doanh cn cha kp thch ng vi nhng qui nh mi nh mu t khai, a 37%34%17%12%DN ngoi QDDN c v?n TNNDNNN Trung UongDNNN d?a phuong31 imnptkhaimi...nnay,docquanthuthchinttcngtctuyn truyn, h tr cng nh cng tc n c k khai nn v c bn, cc DN th im np t khai ng hn.- Tnh hnh np thu: c quan thu theo di st tnh hnh np, n thu v lm tt cng tc n cnp thu nn phn ln ccDN thc hin tt vic np thu. T l n pht sinh ca nm 2007 thp, bnh qun 3,33%.V pha c quan thu: - t c nhng kt qu nht nh trong vic xy dng h thng qun l thu mi - t chc b my qun l thu theo m hnh chc nng. B phn th im ti cp Tng cc thu v hai Cc thu gm 4 t theo chc nng: Tuyn truyn v h tr i tng np thu; X l t khai thu; n c thu n thu; Thanh tra, kim tra.Quathchin,bcuchothytchcqunlthutheochcnngto iukinthunlichovicchuynmnha,trnhcstrnglp,chng cho, nng cao cht lng, hiu qu qun l. -Xydngcccyucunghipvtheochcnngvhthngqutrnh qun l ph hp vi c ch t khai theo hng hin i ha, nng cao cht lng qun l thu.-Cng tc k khai thu qua mng:+CcthutrinkhaikkhaithuquamngInternetviktqun cuinm2012c100.145ngkchim75,71%trnsDNanghotng, trong s DN thc hin k khai np thu l 85.868 (t 85,75% s ng k). + C 15/28 n v t k hoch ngk nm 2012; 4/28 n v cs k khai qua mng thp hn 60% k hoch ng k.Trong Phng Kim tra s 4 t 87,69% s DN ang hot ng; Chi Cc thu qun 11 t 97,95%, Qun Th c t 97,38%, Qun Tn Bnh t 97,15%, Qun Bnh Tn t 92,95%, Qun 2 t 90,68%. 32 VicymnhvnngDNkkhaithuquamngthnhcngngoi vic gim chi ph k khai cho DN, gim bt s giao tip trc tip gia ngi np thu ti c quan thu trong cc ngy cao im np t khai theo quy nh cho thy s ng tnh hnh cao ca DN v bin php ny. 3.2Thc trng trn thu ti TPHCM nhng nm gn y 3.2.1Trn thu ngy cng tng v s v v quy m Ti TP.HCM hin nay tnh trng trn thu, gian ln thu ca cc DN vn ang din rakh nhiu. Mt trong s biu hin ca tnh trng ny l hin tng cc DN b trn, li s n thu ln n hng chc t ng. Bng3-3: Kt qu kim k, r sot m s thu trn a bn (n 30/11/2011) Tng hp m s thu trn a bn (cc t chc, DN) Khu vc Loi hnh DN Cp mi anghot ng Ngnghot ng Ngng hot ng (cthi hn) B trn - DNNN 952.6931.051776 - DN TNN1.5977.51434113694 - DN NQD28.247130.3867.4009.0763.308 - Khc1534.021179334 Tng s30.092144.6148.9929.3223.412 Ngun:Cc thu TPHCM TsliubococaCcthuTPHCMtacththysMSTbtrn chimttrngkhlntrongsccMSTanghotng,nm2011l2,54%. iunylmnhhngrtnhiuntnhhnhnngthuhngnmcng nh s thu cho NSNN. iviccDNanghotngthsDNviphmphplutthucng nh s thu truy thu v pht lin tc tng qua cc nm. 33 Bng3-4: Kt qu thanh tra, kim tra thu ti TPHCM giai on 2007- 2012 Nm Kim tra ti c quan thu Kim tra ti tr s NNT Thanh tra thu S h s S khai b sung v n nh S n v S truy thu,pht v gim l quy i S lt TT S truy thu,pht v gim l quy i 20074.980838,9 200848.525166.85.5471.435,6954368,706 200934.035802,5163.721786,3788891.094,086 201028.903274,85.9811.9618261.645 201194.3263927.5332.6589941.664 2012126.82424010.9853.3421.5115.374 Ngun:Cc thu TPHCM Biu 3.3: Tc tng s n v vi phm, tc tng s tin thu truy thu v pht qua cng tc thanh tra, kim tra giai on 2007-2012 34 Ktqunm2012honthnhkhochthanhtraphthin,kin ngh x l truy thuvx pht kp thi cchnh vivi phm php lut thu, gp phnnngcaothctunthphplutthucanginpthu,tolpcng bngvnghavthu,gpphnhonthincchchnhschphplutthu thng qua thc tin, chng tht thu ngn sch, gp phn vo vic hon thnh d ton thu ngn sch nm 2012. Bng3-5: Kt qu thc hin thanh tra nm 2012 VT: Triu ng STTn v S h s gii quyt Tng s truy thu + truy hon S gim khu tr Gim l np NSNN 1P.Thanh tra 1430 1.520.1499.0521.787.617822.032 2P.Thanh tra 2343 637.98416.960254.576117.723 3P.Thanh tra 3382 208.86836.137250.25778.703 4P.Thanh tra 4356 244.22224.672396.054101.180 Cng1.511 2.611.22386.8232.688.5061.119.639 Ngun:Cc thu TPHCM Ktquthchinnm2012caccphngthanhtrathchin1.511 hst102%vshstheokhochphplnh,77%vshstheok hoch phn u, 225% v s thu so vi k hoch c Ban Lnh o Cc Thu giaonm2012vbng152%vshs,203%vsthu(quyi)sovi cng k nm 2011. 35 Bng3-6: Kt qu thc hin cng tc kim tra nm 2012 so vi nhim v kim tra nm 2012 VT: Triu ng n v K hoch 2012 Thc hin nm 2012 T l thc hin so k hoch Php lnh S thu truy thuv pht S h skim tra ti DN (k c hon thu) Tng s truy thu v pht quy i S h skim tra ti DN (k c hon thu) Tng s truy thu v pht quy i Tng cng 12.5002.50010.9853.581.93987,88%143,24% Vn phng Cc 1.9201.0701.7531.942.44291,30%181,50% 24 CCT 10.5801.4309.2321.639.49787,26%114,62% Ngun:Cc thu TPHCM Trong nm 2012, s h s kim tra ti c quan thu v ti tr s ngi np thu ton Cc bng 87.88% so vi k hoch php lnh, tng cng s k khai iu chnhquakimtraticquanthuvsthutruy thuvphtquakimtrati DNbng143%sovikhochnm2012vbng125%sovicngknm 2011. Tng s DN c x l truy thu / Tng s DN c kim tra l : 90% (9.872 /10.985DN).Sthutruythubnhqunl:304triu/DN(Sthutruythu/ Tng s DN c kim tra). S np NSNN : 1.044 t ng bng 99% so vi cng k nm trc. 3.2.2Thc trng trn thu ca cc DN ti TPHCM nhng nm gn y 3.2.2.1 Tnh hnh trn thu ca cc DN FDI Vi chnh sch m ca th trng thu ht u t, c bit l vn u t trctipncngoi(FDI),nctahinanglmttrongnhngncthuht ngun vn FDI hng u khu vc. Vic thu ht ngun vn ny tng nhanh chng sau khi Vit Nam tr thnh thnh vin th 150 ca WTO vo nm 2006. Ngun vnnyccoilnglcthcytngtrngkinhtcanctatrong nhiu nm qua.36 Bng nhng u i v thu v hng lot chnh sch khc, s gia tng t cc DN FDI trong khong 15 nm qua ng gp lncho tng trng kinh t v gii quyt vic lm cho lao ng nc ta. Tuy vy, nhiu vn tiu cc khi qun l cc DN ny ang t ra bi ton kh cho cc nh qun l. c bit, nhiu DNFDIlnhngtponaqucgia,cngunvnln,chimthphncao trongnc,c doanhthutngtrngmnhquaccnmnhng lilintcbo l.NgunthutkhuvcFDIquaccnmutngnggpmtphn ln vo tng thu NSNN trn a bn TP.HCM ( nm 2007 ng gp 18,4%, nm 2012nggp16,56%).Trungbnh6nmt2007-2012,khuvcFDIng gp17,76%votngthuNSNNcaTPHCM.Tnhhnhtngthuquaccnm c ghi nhn nh sau: Biu 3.4: Thu NSNN v thu t DN FDI TP.HCM(2007-2012) McdtngsthuthutccDNFDItngnhngcnphinhnthy rng t trng tng sc thu trong tng thu t khu vc FDI khng ng nht v c s chnh lch kh r rt, th hin qua biu sau: 37 Biu 3 .5: T trng thu TNDN/Tng s thu thu c t DN FDI TP.HCM 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009NmThukhcThuTNDNThuTTDBThuGTGT Ngun: Cc thu TP.HCM v tc gi t tnh ton TtrngthuginthutrongtngsthuthutkhuvcDNFDIti TPHCM lun chim t trng ln trong khi t trng thu TNDN ch chim t 30-40%. C th nhn thy mtiu, so vi lng vn FDI rt ln c u t vo VNthktqunykhngcnhmongi.iunykhcthgiithch chohotngsnxutkinhdoanhcaDNFDIchaththiuqu.BivDN FDIluncnhgilccDNnngng,nhybn,ccnhutnc ngoicnglnhngngicnnglc,ckinhnghipqunl.Thmvo, chnh sch thu ht u t trc tip nc ngoi ca VN ni chung v TPHCM ni ring ngy cng to iu kin thun li cho hot ng ca cc DN FDI. Nh vy, kt qu thu t khu vc c vn u t nc ngoi khng c nh mong i nhiu kh nng l do cc hnh vi gian ln thu ca DN FDI. TheoTngCcThu,tnhnngy20/12/2012,sDNFDIdongnh Thuqunllhn11.110nv.Trong ,ttrngnggptrongtngthu ngnschnhnc(NSNN)caccDNFDIccnmgnyluntrong khongtrnhn10%.Cth,nm2008l10,2%;nm2009l11,5%;nm 2010l11,2%.Trongkhi,khong7.400 DNnh nclic tl ng gp 38 cho NSNN tng ng ln lt l 16,7%; 19%; 20%11. Nguyn nhn dn n tnh trngtrnmtphnldoccDNFDIcpdngchnhschuivthu thu nhp DN khi mi u t vo Vit Nam v s dng hnh thc chuyn gi khi ht thi hn u i u t trn trnh ngha v thu. Cc hot ng chuyn gi mangtnhlmdngthngxyrakhicccngtyaqucgiavimtmng li cc cng ty thnh vin ti cc cc nc khc nhau khai bo gi thnh v gi bn cao hn nhm bo l trong nhng lnh vc phi chu thu nht nhv nh vy gim np thu. Kt qu iu tra, kho st cho thy, cc hnh vi chuyn gi v ang c DN FDI thc hin ti Vit Nam nh: nng khng gi tr hng ha, dchvuvo;gimgitruracahngha,dchvhoctoratnhc th ca sn phm hng ha hay c th ca giao dch lin kt trnh s iu tra v so snh ca c quan chc nng. Stintrnthulnnhngtrm,hngnghntng,lmthmht nghim trng NSNN. c bit, theo bo co, nguyn nhn ch yu c cho l do cc nh u t FDI lm th tc cp php d n u t nhng khi trin khai d nlikhngxincthocmtsldokhc.Cmtsnhutlili dngchnhschuichmthucaNhncnnchhotngtrongmt thi gian ngn (5 - 10 nm) ri tuyn b ph sn, trn thu (thc ra h hp thc ha u t thnh Cty khc tip tc hot ng).TheosliuccngbcaccthuTPHCMvktqukinhdoanh nm 2009 ca DN FDI trn a bn, gn 60% trong s 3500 DN bo co thua l. Nm2008tlDNFDITPHCMthualcngchimti61,3%vtrc, nm 2007, nm hng thnh ca kinh t VN, vn c gn 70% DN thuc khu vc kinh t ny l. Vy trong s cc DN ny, c bao nhiu DN l thtv bao nhiu DN l gi (thc hin hnh vi trn thu). ngtrcnhngconsthngktrnchothyctnhhnhnghim trng ca hnh vi trn thu ca cc DN FDI. Cc DN ny tm mi hnh thc, 11 http://www.baomoi.com/Home/KinhTe/www.taichinhdientu.vn/EU-ho-tro-chong-chuyen-gia-tai-Viet-Nam/10475119.epi 39 thontrnthu,lmgimsthuphinptrnphmvitpon.Tnh trng ny ko di khng ch lm tht thu ngn sch m cn nh hng n chnh schthuhtutncngoicaNhnc;toramitrngut,kinh doanh,cnhtranhkhngbnhng;tngbcthntnhccDNtrongnc trong lin doanh lin kt; tng nhp siu v tim n nhng nguy c bt n x hi (dobocolnn tmcchkhngnnglng,thngchocngnhn, dnn cc cuc nh cng, bi cng).3.2.2.2 Tnh hnh trn thu ca cc DN Vit Nam Khng ch c cc DN nc ngoi, mt s DN Vit Nam cng c y chi phuvolncaovlidngtiaccuicaCPiviccDNmi thnh lp, nh u i v thi gian c php l, cc chi ph lin quan n qung co, marketing, .... Khng nhng th, h cng lin tc u t mua cc nguyn vt liu hoc my mc t nc ngoi vi s chi ph o cng ln khng km, to nn li tht l gi nhm trn thu. Mt s DN khi hch ton k ton li c l vi ba nm sau mi li mt cht nhm trnh b a vo danh sch cc DN phsn,vlutnctachophpchuynlnmtrcsangnmsau,trong vng 5 nm lin tc. Mt s DN hch ton sao cho li gim xung tht thp (so vi li thc t), lm p h s nng lc, thun li cho vic tham gia u thu (nu c) v trnh s ca c quan qun l thu. Hnh vi chuyn gi nhm ti thiu ngha v thu TNDN khng ch din ra ti cc DN FDI, m cn gia cc bn lin kt trong ni a Vit Nam do cc tp onkinhttrongnclidngchnhschuicaNhnc.Cthl thnhlpmtscngtyconhotngtrongnhnglnhvcvabnkhc nhau,trongcnhnglnhvc,abncuithuTNDN,ttm cchchuynlinhuntrcthutDNkhngcuithusangDNlin kt c u i thu, hoc chuyn li nhun trc thu t DN c li sang DN b l thng qua gi chuyn giao sn phm v cung cp dch v gia cc bn gim thiu ngha v thu tng hp ca c tp on. Trong lnh vc thu XNK, theo s liu thng k ca B Ti chnh, s hng ha chnh lch gia vic tm nhp v ti xut kh ln, c khong 1 t USD mi 40 nm. Nm 2007, cc DN tm nhp vo hn 1,7 t USD trong khi s ti xut ch c 120 triu USD. Cn nm 2010, s tm nhp khong 5 t USD nhng ti xut ch c 4 t USD. Cc DN dn u v vic lm ny li l ccDN nh nc, nh: Tp on xng du Vit Nam (Petrolimex) c cho l c nh trn thu hn 82 t ng; CngtyTNHHmtthnhvinXngduHngkhngVitNamcngkhng km vi s tin 42,6 t ng; Tng Cng ty xng du Qun i, n v ng u trong vic ti a haloi hnh TNTX khim t l trn thu chim ti hn 95% s tin n thu (s tin trn thu di hnh thc TNTX khong 50,9 t ng trn tng s n thu khong hn 51 t ng)12. Theo s liu thng k, ring ti TP HCM, n cui nm 2009, s DN khai l v thu nhp bng 0 ln n hn 2.000. S liu ng ng ny buc Cc thu quytnhthanhtra.Ktquthanhtra826DN,truythuhn760tng, pht hn 246 t ng. T gim s l m cc n v k khai hn 2.570 t ng. Nhng hnh vi vi phm ph bin khc l nhiu DN chy khng np tin thu, tin pht; sa cha, ty xa hoc t hy chng t, khng xut ha n hoc ghi gi tr thp hn trong ha n khi bn hng13. 3.2.3Mt s nghi vn trn thu in hnh TPHCM gn y 3.2.3.1 Trng hp ca cng ty Coca-cala TheobocohotngkinhdoanhcaCngtyCoca-ColatiCcthu TP.HCM,trongnhiunmcmttithtrngVitNamcngtynylintc thua l. Nm 2006 cng ty ny t doanh thu 1.026 t ng nhng l n 253 t ng; nm 2007 l 198 t ng; nm 2010 doanh thu ln n 2.529 t ng nhng chi ph li ln n 2.717 t ng, dn n s l 188 t ng v nm 2011 mc l l 39 t ng. 12 http://phapluatxahoi.vn/20120925081210268p0c1002/thue-voi-nhung-chieu-tro-lach-luat-ky3-loi-dungde-tron-thue.htm 13 http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/kinh-te/29336/vach-mat-nhung-dai-gia-tron-thue-nghin-ty.html 41 Theo s ly k n nm 2011 cng tyny l tng cng 3.768 t ng, vtcsvnutbanul2.950tng.Nhvytrungbnhminm Cng ty Coca-Cola l 100 t ng14. Biu 3.6: Doanh thu v s l ca Coca cola nhng nm gn y Ngun: Cc Thu TP.HCM - ha: V.CngVthualnnmcdhncchcnmhotngtithtrngVit Nam,Coca-ColaVitNamkhngphingngnochonhncvthu TNDN,mchphingmtskhonthuGTGT,thu mnbi.Svicny cng c c quan chc nng m trc tip l Cc thu TP.HCM c bit ch a DN ny vo danh sch cng ty c nghi vn v du hiu chuyn gi. Qua vic mua nguyn liu sn xut t cng ty m, DN ny lun khai bo vicquanthugithnhnguynliucaonhmygichiphsnxuttng khin tnh trng kinh doanh lun mc l. D c nghi vn hay bit mi mi v cc trng hp chuyn gi ca nhiuDN,cquanthutrongnhiunmvnkhngthxcminh tnhxcthc ca v vic. L do l hin nay Vit Nam vn cha c h thng, nhng quy phm php lut tng thch c th iu chnh biu hin chuyn gi. 14 http://www.tapchitaichinh.vn/Ho-so-Vu-an/Ke-tron-thue-mang-ten-CocaCola-Viet-Nam/16628.tctc 42 3.2.3.2 Trng hp ca tp don Metro Cash & Carry Vit Nam MtdnchngkhcltrnghpcaMetroCash&CarryVitNam. Tponny,ngidnquengilMetro,vakhaitrngtrungtmbns mitiHNi.yltrungtmth19caMetrotiVitNam,ctngdin tch bn hng ln ti 5.100m, cung ng hn 25.000 mt hng cc loi. Qu trnh phttrincphnvbonhvynhngccbocotichnhcaMetroli khng h nh mong i. Lin tip trong nhiu nm, cng ty ny bo l vi ngnh thu vi mc l cao nht trong s cc DN FDI ti Vit Nam. Mt bo co ca Tng cc Thu cho hay, Metro Cash & Carry, khai l t nm 2001 n 2009 l 1.157 t ng, ng u bng trong danh mc cc DN FDI khail.Saukhisliunyccngb,cnhiukinnghingvkh nng chuyn gi ti DN ny. Theo thng k ca Cc Thu TP.HCM, d doanh thu tng lin tc qua cc nm nhng kt qu kinh doanh ca cng ty ny l trin min. C th, nm 2007 doanh thu t hn 6.607 t ng, nhng s l l 157 t ng. Nm 2008 doanh thu vtln8.175tng,sllnnhn190tng.Nm2009doanhthut 8.728 t ng, s l l 160 t ng. T khi thnh lp (2001) n nay, ch duy nht nm 2010 Metro khai c li 116 t ng, nhng do c chuyn l ca nhng nm trc nn n nay DN ny cng cha ng mt ng thu TNDN no. n nm 2011 Metro li khai l 89 t ng15. 15 http://doanhnhansaigon.vn/online/dien-dan-doanh-nhan/thoi-su/2012/12/1070548/khi-doanh-nghiep-fdi-khai-lo-tron-thue/ 43 Kt lun chng 3 Ktthcchng3tcgitrnhbytnhhnhthchinkkhaithu theocchtkhaitnptiTPHCM.Trnhbynhngktqutcv phn tch cc kha cnh khc nhau. Cui cng l thc trng trn thu v mt s trnghptrnthuinhnhgnytrnabnTPHCM.TrongChng4 tcgisthchinccbcphntchcnthitnhmtmraccyutnh hng ti hnh vi trn thu ny. 44 Chng 4.C LNG CC YU T NH HNG N TRN THU TPHCM BNG M HNH MNG THN KINH NHN TO 4.1M hnh mng thn kinh nhn to (ANN16) 4.1.1C s l thuyt ca m hnh 4.1.1.1 Lan truyn tin ca ANN Qu trnh lan truyn tin tnh gi tr cc nt xut t mu nhp vo mng . Tin trnh ny c s dng trong hai tnh hung: khi luyn mng v khi s dng mng.Khiluynmng,lantruyntincsdnglpilplitmuny n mu khc t th h ny sang th h khc cho n khi trng s t n gi tr thchhp.Trili,khisdngmnglantruyntinchcthcthimtln chotngmunhp..Tuynhin,dtrongtrngthiluynmnghaysdng mng, cc thao tc trong th tc lan truyn tin l nh nhau . MtmnglantruyntincaANNcmtlpnhp(lpinput),mtlpxut (lpoutput)vmthocnhiulpngialpnhpvlpxut.Mineuron trong mt lp th kt ni n tt c cc neuron ca lp k tip ngay sau n v cc neuron trong cng mt lp khng lin kt vi nhau. Mtneuronctrngcthhintronghnh4.2.Mineuronnhntn hiutmineurontronglplintrc.Mineurontronglpnvlpxut, mintnhpthcnhn vicctrng s cacunglinktgia nt nhpv ntn,tchscachngccngdnli.Ktip,mthmtruyncp dng trn tng trng ha ny cng vi mt ngng ca nt n cho ra gi tr thc ca nt n. Cc trng s c a n neuron th Jth trong mt lp c dng vect trng Wj = (w1j,wij,,wnj), vi wij l trng s ca cung lin kt t neuron th ith trong lp lin trc n neuron trong lp hin ti. 16 Artificial Neural Network 45 Sau khi nn tng trng ha ca n, n lt mnh, mi nt n s gi kt qu n tt c cc nt xut. Hnh 4.1: Biu th hin mng lan truyn tin 3 lp ca ANN Hnh 4.2: Qu trnh hot ng ca mt nt c trng ca ANN Mintxutthchinccthaotctngtnhthchintrongntn cho ra gi tr kt xut ca nt xut. Ga tr ca cc nt xut chnh l gi tr thc, ngha l gi tr ca cc bin ph thuc cn xc nh. Hu htngita thng sdnghmtruynmvmthnh hc, th ca n c dng ng cong dng ch S tng u n, c gi l hm Sigmoid hay hm logistic. Hm logistic c cc c im sau: -Hm truyn l hm b chn.-Hm truyn l hm n iu tng.-Hm truyn l hm lin tc v trn.V mt ton hc, hm logistic c nh ngha nh sau: 46 zjey111+= (1) Vi z = wij Hnh 4.3 Hm logistic 4.1.1.2 S chun ha d liu TrckhipdngANN,dliuuvophicchunharivo trongkhong[0,1].MtbintngtrngllulngQ,binnycththay it0nmtvigitrlnnhtQmaxcthcchunhabicngthc sau :maxQQQs= (2) Vi Qsl lu lng chun ha. 4.1.1.3 Thut ton lan truyn ngc sai s Thuttonlantruynngcsais(BP)davovickhiqutccquy lutdeltacarabiRumelhart(1986)hiuchnhcctrngsca cc cung lin kt trong qu trnh luyn mng. Lantruynngclmtphngphpchophpxcnhtptrngtt nht ca mng gii mt bi ton c cho. Vic p dng phng php lan truyn ngc l mt qu trnh lp i lp li nhiu ln hai tin trnh chnh: lan truyn tin thc hin nh x v lan truyn ngc sai s cp nht cc trng. Cc trng ca mng l cc h s ca m hnh. Phng php gim gradient 47 cdng cpnhtnhngh sny sao chogimthiu sai scamhnh. Sai s c o bng phng php sai s trung bnh bnh phng l phng php thng c s dng xy dng cc m hnh. Sai strungbnhbnh phngthngc sdngolng s trngkhp gia nh x cn xy dng vi hm ch c cho trc (qua tp mu). ( )= = =Npmnpn pnO T E121 (3) Vi Tpn l ga tr ch ca neuro th nth ca mu th pth; Opn l gi tr u ra ca neuron th nth ca mu th pth; N l tng s mu; M l tng s neuron u ra. Tngtrngscaccntktnitinjbclantruynthn,wij(n) c tnh bi cng thc: ( ) ( ) 1* * + = n wwEn wijijij (4) Vi v l h s momen v tc hc. * Bt u tnh ton vi gi tr ban u ca cc trng s.Cc bc ca thutton nh sau:+Bc1:Thchinccbct2-9chonkhingngcciukinlph hp. + Bc 2: i vi mi cp luyn ca tp d liu, tin hnh cc bc t 3-8.(1) Lan truyn tin:+ Bc 3: Mi neuron u vo (Xi, I = 1, 2, , n) nhn tn hiu u vo xi v gi n n tt c cc nt trong lp k tip (lp n).+ Bc 4: Mi neuron trong lp n (Zj, j = 1, 2, , p) cng tng cc trng s ca tn hiu u vo. + =ij i oj jv x v Zin Vi i = 1, 2, , n(5) Vi vijcc trng s ca cung lin kt 48 Vojl gi tr nghing Hm hot ng th c p dng tnh gi tr u ra. ( )j jZin f Z =(6) + Bc 5: Mi neuron trong lp xut (Yk, k = 1, 2, .,m) cng tng cc trng s ca tn hiu u vo ij i ok kw z w Yin+ = Vi j = 1, 2, , p(7) Tip tc hm hot ng c p dng tnh gi tr u ra. ( ) Yink f Yk =(8) (2) Lan truyn ngc sai s+Bc6:Mineurontronglpxut(Yk,k=1,2,,m)tnhsaissdng mu ch ph hp vi ccmu luyn u vo.( ) ( )k k k kYin f y t . = (9) Tnh s hng hiu chnh trng s ( cp nhtij )wij j k jkZ w = (10) Tnh s hng hiu chnh dc ( cp nht okw cui cng) k okw = .(11) V gi kn cc nt trong lp lin trc. + Bc 7: Mi nt trong lp n (Zj, j = 1, 2, , p) cng tng delta u vo (t ccnt trong lp k tip) =jk k jw in Vi k = 1, 2, , m(12) c nhn bi o hm ca hm hot ng tnh s hng sai s. ( )j j jZin f in . =(13) Tnh s hng hiu chnh trng s (c s dng cp nhtij sau):v j j ijx v . = (14) V tnh s hng hiu chnh gim dc (c s dng cp nht voj sau): j ojv . = (15) 49 (3) Cp nht cc trng s v dc:+ Bc 8: Mi neuron trong lp xut, Yk, k = 1, 2, , m, cp nht gim dc v trng s (j = 0, 1, , p):( ) ( )ik jk jkw old w new w + =(16) Mi nt n (Zj, j = 1, 2, , p) cp nht gim dc v trng s (i = 1, 2, , n): ( ) ( )ij ij ijv old v new v + = (17) + Bc 9. Kim tra li nu cc iu kin ngng l an ton 4.1.2 Chng c ng dng m hnh ANN C nhiu phng php khc nhau nh gi mi quan h gia cc bin s kinh t. Trong s c OLS, 2SLS, 3SLS, VAR, ARMA, ARIMA, GARCH, vARCH.NhiunhnghincunhTanzi(1980,1983),Embaye(2007), CebulavSaadatmand(2005),Richardson(2006)sdngccphngphp nynhgimiquanhgiannkinhtngm,trnthu vcc binkinh t. Bi nghin cu ny sp dng mt phng php mi, phng php ANN clungccyutnhhngnhnhvitrnthuvmctcngca mi bin. NhiunhnghincugnysdngphngphpANNc lng mi quan h gia cc bin s kinh t v d bo kinh t v m. Thnh cng caANNtrongphntchdliukhoahcthcnghimtoschnhiu hncaccnhkinhtiviphngphpny.Hilletal.(1994)sosnh kt qu ca phng php kinh t v phng php ANN. Kt qu ca h cho rng phngphpANNclngdliuchuithigianmtcchchnhxcv honho,thmchtrongmtstrnghpcnchnhxchnsoviphng phpkinhtkhc.Trongmtnghincukhc,Kohzadietal.(1995)sosnh phng phpmng thn kinhvm hnh ARIMA d bo ngnhthngmi ng cc v kt lun rng sai sd bo bng cch s dng phng php Neural Network thp hn 18-40% so vim hnh ARIMA. 50 Tngtnhvy,Fu(1998)trongnghincucangktlunrng phng php Neural Network chnh xc hn so vi cc m hnh hi quy . Fu cprngccsai s trongphngphpNeuralNetworkththp hn10-20% so vi m hnh hi quy. TrnthgiicrtnhiunghincusdngANNtrongdboth trng ti chnh hoc cc bin s kinh t v m nh GDP, lm pht v gi chng khon.TuynhinphngphpnyvncnkhmimVitNam,chmi c p dng trong lnh vc xy dng v d bo gi chng khon. V vy nghin cunyspdngnvomtlnhvchontonmi:clngccyut cng nh mc tc ng n trn thu 4.2S dng m hnh ANN c lng cc yu t tc ng n trn thu TPHCM 4.2.1 La chn phn mm x l m hnh Hinnay,viccngdngnhnhndngkhunmt,ngiib,d bo chng khon, t gi...,cc phn mm ph bin c thit k dng cho ANN gmcAlyudaNeuroIntelligence,StuttgartNeuralNetworkSimulator, Emergen,JavaNNS,SpiceSOM,Spice-MLP17vNeuroSolutions.Miphn mm c nhng tnh nng c bit ring, nhng qua qu trnh th nghim v tm hiutcgichnphnmmNeuroSolutionsthchinmhnhNeural Network.NeuroSolutionslmttrongnhngchngtrnhmnhnhthinnay mphngmhnhNeuralNetworkviphinbnminhtlNeuroSolutions 6.2418.Dotichgigntrongvicngdngmhnhnntcgisdng NeuroSolutions 6.0 vic thc hin c d dng hn nh vo c ch t ng ca chng trnh. 4.2.2 Cch thc thu thp v x l d liu th 17 Spice-MLP c vit bi CAO THANG khi tc gi lm vic tiSoft Intelligence Laboratory, Ritsumeikan University, Japan, 2003-2007 18 C th download bn trial min ph ti: http://neurosolutions.soft112.com/ 51 Theo l thuyt phn tch ca tc gi t Chng 2, m hnh ny ph hp kho st cc yu t nh hng ti hnh vi trn thu trn a bn TPHCM. T c slthuyttcgitrnhby,cnmyutchnhnhhngntrnthu nh sau: 1.Gnh nng thu- TB 2.Thu nhp ca TNT- Y 3.Qui m CP-G 4.T l lm pht- I 5. m thng mi- OP Tnh cht c bit ca m hnh Neural Network l t ng nhn thy cc mi tng quan gia cc bin vi nhau, v vy khng cn phi quan trng v vic thngnhtnvtnhcatngbinmchcndliunhtqunvmtthi gian. Cc bin nhp trn y cth bt k n v tnh no, trong qu trnh trainingmhnhstngsanbngccsaibitvnvtnhvsaulm vic vi d liu sau iu chnh t qu trnh training. Trong trng hp ca GDP th d liu c t chc theo qu nn ly bnh qun cho 3 thng trong qu . Cc d liu c ly t thng 07/2007 n thng 12/2012 mbod liumu ln trong vic chym hnh, ton b tac c66muctrnhbychitittrongphlc.Ngundliucdng xy dng m hnh Neural Network c ly t nhng ngun khc nhau ph hp vi tng loi bin nh sau: TE:trnthu,cctnhdatrnphngphptipcnvimthng qua s liu bo co thanh tra, kim tra hng thng ca Cc thu TPHCM.TB :gnhnngthuidinbngtl%casthuniatrnGDP hng thng ca TP (tng t nh nghin cu ca Razieh Tabandeh) Y: thu nhp ca ngi np thu c o bng GDP/ngi19 (tng t nh nghin cu ca Razieh Tabandeh) 19 Dn s ca TPHCM c thng k theo nm nn mt cch tng i, xem nh bin ng dn s trong 1 nm l khng ng k 52 G:quimCP,cobngtl%caChiNSNNtrnGDP(tngt nh nghin cu ca Razieh Tabandeh)I: t l lm pht, i din bng ch s gi tiu dng hng thng ca TP OP:mthngmictnhtonnhtl%cakimngchXNK trn GDP (tng t nh nghin cu ca Razieh Tabandeh) Ngoi tr bin TE, cc bin cn li c thu thp d liu t Bo co c tnhkt quthchinmtschtiuchyuvThngktnhhnhKTXH hng thng ca Cc thng k TP20 4.2.3 Qu trnh x l m hnh 4.2.3.1 T chc file d liu Ttcccdliuuvoucnhpvomtfileexcel,nhngdo chngtrnhNeuroSulutionschcthcdliudidngtextASCIInn cnphichuynidliut excelsangdngtext.Ccthaotcbcsauy tc gi s dng Microsoft Office 2007. D liu dng file text cn c chun b thnh cc hng v ct. u tin l ID, sau l u vo v tip theo l u ra. Cc gi tr c phn cch bng du phy vifile CSV (Comma Separated Value File Format) hoc duTab vifile TXT (Tab Separated Value File Format). Trc tin dng MS Excel bin son d liu, sau lu vo file text hoc file csv. Sau khi xut ra thnh file text, ta c thdngfilenyvochngtrnhNeuroSolutionschymhnhNeural Network. 4.2.3.2 Phn tch cc bin u vo bng Data Manager M Data Manager, chn file d liu u vo, chn bin u vo v u ra nhhnh4.2,sauchnbinmongmunlTE.Thchinphntchccd liu u vo o lng mc tng quan ca cc bin u vo vi bin u ra. Ta c c mc tng quan theo biu hnh 4.3 20 www.pso.hochiminhcity.gov.vn 53 Biuchothystngquancaccbinuvovibinura.Dc nhiu bin c tng quan thp nhng ta vn gi li trong m hnh din t phn no tc ng ca cc yu t ny n trn thu. Hnh 4.4: Chn nhng bin cn phn tch mc tng quan Tachn5binuvov1binura,2binSTTvLABEL khng dng n nn chn ch Skip Hnh 4.5: Biu th hin tng quan gia cc bin u vo v bin u ra Tktqutrntaccphngtrnhbiuthccyuttcngntrn thu nh sau:54 TE = 0.64TB + 0.1G - 0.27Y + 0.23I + 0.26OP (*) 4.2.4 Phn tch kt qu T hnh 4.3 v phng trnh (*) ta c th kt lun rng gnh nng thu l yu t ch yu tc ng n trn thu trn a bn TPHCM. iu ny c th gii thch rng khi gnh nng v thu tng ln th trn thu cng s tng v ngc li. Cc nh nghin cu khc nh Brooks (2001), Savasan (2003), Dell'Anno (2007), Dell'Annoetal.(2004),SchneidervSavasan(2007),RaziehTabandeh(2011) cng tm ra kt lun tng t. Yu t th 2 c nh hngn trn thu l thu nhp ca TNT. H s (-0.27) cho thy rng c mt mi quan h ngc chiu gia thu nhp ca TNT v trn thu. Embaye (2007) trong nghin cu trng hp ca chu Phi cho thy miquan hgiathunhpcaTNTvtrnthulcngchiu.Nhphn tch chng 2, mi quan h gia bin thu nhp v bin trn thu cn ph thuc vothusut.Saukhithunhptng,nutngcthusutthuthunhpth TNTsphnnglibngcchtrnvtrnhthu.nhngnungclithu thunhpkhngihocgimthtrnthucngsgim.TPHCMniring v nc ta ni chung mc thu sut c xu hng gim trong nhiu nm qua. in hnh nh thu sut thu TNDN lin tc gim t 32% xung 28%, ri 25% t nm 2009,vdkincthgimcn23%trongvinmti.BiuthuTNCNtuy khng i nhngmc gim tr i vi TNT c nng ln 9 triu ng/thng (108triung/nm)vmcgimtrivimingiphthuc l3,6 triu ng/thng(mc c l 4 triu ng v 1,6 triu ng) t 01/07/2013. V th kt qu trn l hon ton hp l. Mt yu t khc c nh hng n trn thu c tm thy t m hnh l m thng mi. Trong nghin cu trng hp Malaysia ca Razieh (2011), ngoi thng cng m rng th trn thu cng gim, tuy nhin, TPHCM th cho kt qu ngc li. C th gii thch kt qu ny nh sau : nc ta ang trong qu trnh hi nhp, hot ng thngmi song phng v a phngvi cc nc dinrangycngsinghn,nhtlivimtkhuvcphttrinnh 55 TPHCM th cc th on trn thu s ngy cng tinh vi, phc tp trong khi qun l vn cn nhiu yu km nn trn thu tng ln l iu tt yu. Yu t cui cng c nh hng ng k n trn thu l t l lm pht. Hs(0.23)chothycmtmiquanhcngchiugiahaibintrn.Nh chng ta bit ti l lm pht c nh hng n quyt nh ca TNT. Khi lm phttng,TNTcxuhngtmmicchgimchiphxungmcthpnht ngn khng cho thu nhp kh dng ca h b gim v trn thu l mt trong s cc gii php. V th, d khng c tc ng mnh nhng t l lm pht tng cng khinchotrnthutnglntngtnhktqunghincucaCranev Nourzad (1986), Caball v Panade (2004). Vi h s (0.1), tc dng ca yu t Qui m CP i vi trn thu l khng ngk,haynicchkhc,mcchitiucaCPsoviGDPkhngcnh hng nhiu n hnh vi trn thu trn a bn TPHCM. Kt lun chng 4 Trong chng 4, tc gi chy m hnh Nerual network bng phn mm NeuroSolutionsvinktluncuicngtmrabnyutctcng ngktihnhvitrnthu(theothtgimdn)l:gnhnngthu,thu nhp ca TNT, m thng mi v t l lm pht. T kt lun ny kt hp vi phnghngnhimvchocngtcthanhtra,kimtrathutcgiara nhm gii php tng ng trong chng 5. 56 Chng 5. KT LUN V GII PHP NHM GIM THIU HNH VI TRN THU TRONG C CH T KHAI T NP 5.1Kt lun Mcchchnhcatilnhmxcnhccyutvmcnh hngtihnhvitrnthutiTPHCM.Sauqutrnhnghinculthuytv chy m hnh Neural Network cho d liu t thng 07/2007, thi gian chnh thc trin khai c ch TKTN, tc gi tm c 3 yu t nh hng cng chiu v 1 yu t nh hng ngc chiu ti hnh vi trn thu l (theo th t gim dn mc nh hng): -Gnh nng thu c nh hng cng chiu n trn thu; -Thu nhp ca TNT c nh hng ngc chiu n trn thu; - m thng mi c nh hng cng chiu n trn thu; -V t l lm pht c nh hung cng chiu n trn thu. Nh vy ti tr li c 2 cu hi nghin cu: Yu t no nh hng ti trn thu trong c ch t khai t np? Mc nh hng ca cc yu t nh th no? Phn tip theo tc gi s tr li cu hi Gii php no gim thiu hnh vi trn thu cng nh nhng hu qu xu m n mang li? 5.2Gii php nhm gim thiu hnh vi trn thu trong c ch t khai t np T kt lun trnkt hp vi chin lc ci cch ngnh thu, tc gi a ra bn gii php tng ng nhm gim thiu hnh vi trn thu cng nh cc tn tht m n mang li.57 5.2.1Nhm gii php da vo kt qa m hnh 5.2.1.1 Gim gnh nng thu ng thi tng thu nhp ca TNT -Gimmc thu sut cn bin trong biu thu, c bit l thu TNCN m hinVNangpdngdidngthuthunhpvingicthunhp cao vi mc cao nht l 35%. Khi mc thu sut cn bin khng qu cao, TNT s khng c nhiu ng c chuyn thu nhp trn thu, n gin v s thu trn c khng ln so vi tin pht c th gp phi. -Gimmc thu sut thu TNDN xungmtmc hp l, tng ng vi ccnctrongkhuvcnhmchnghnhvichuyngitrnthu. ng thi gim thi gian chuyn l cc buc cc DN lm n km hiu qunlcphnu,cthlgimt5nmnhhinnayxung cn3 nm. -Tng thu nhp ca TNT thng qua kim ch lm pht 5.2.1.2 Tc ng n hot ng ngoi thng Viktquphntchchng4,khingoithngcngmrngth cngtngngvitrnthudinracngnhiu.Dvy,takhngthgim trnthubngcchngcavnhnglichkhngthbncimthng mi XNK mang li. V th tc gi xut gim trn thu i vi hot ng ngoi thng thng qua tng cng cng tc kim tra, kim sot hi quan, chng bun lu, gian ln thngmi, pht hin kp thi sai st v cc hnh vi gian ln, trn thu, m bo thu ng, thu , thu kp thi cho NSNN: -Qunl,gimstchtchvickimtrahnghaxutkhu,ngnnga hin tng quay vng hng ha xut khu, xut khu khng;-Phi hp vi S K hoch v u t, Cc Thu, Cng an, Chi cc Qun l th trng,kp thi u tranh ngn chn c hiu qu cc hnh vi gian ln thu qua hot ng xut-nhp khu; 58 -cbitchtrngvickimtracctrnghpkkhaiminthuhng hanhput,honthu,ccmthngmi,dnhmln,cthayi tn, mc thu sut thu nhp khu, tr gi tnh thu. 5.2.1.3 Gim lm pht y l mt trong nhng mc tiu u tin hng u ca CP nhm m bo nnhkinhtvm,crtnhiugiiphpcarakimchlm pht, i y l mt s bin php tiu biu: -Xy dng mt h thng ngn hng hin i v mng li chp nhn thanh ton cc phng tin thanh ton hin i, rng khp v cc iu kin khc hnchtiathanhtonbngtinmttrongccgiaodchcann kinh t. -Ctgimutcngvchiphthngxuyncacccquansdng ngnsch,kimsotchtchutcaccdoanhnghipnhnc,c gng gim t l thm ht ngn sch. -Tptrungscphttrinsnxutcngnghip,nngnghip,khcphc nhanhhuqucathititvdchbnhtngsnlnglngthc, thc phm. -Bomcnicungcuvhngho,ymnhxutkhu,gimnhp siu. -Trit tit kim trong sn xut v tiu dng. -Tngcngcngtcqunlthtrng,kimsotvicchphnhphp lut nh nc v gi.5.2.2Nhm gii php t cng tc qun l thu-Tngcngcngtcthanhtra,kimtrathukpthiphthin,truy thu v x pht i vi cc hnh vi trn thu nhm hn ch tht thu NSNN ng thi rn e cc i tng v ang c nh trn thu. 59 - Cn nng cao lc lng v trnh nghip v cho cn b thanh kim tra thucthphthinraccthonngycngtinhvi,khxlca i tng trn thu. -Cntngcngngdngtritcngnghthngtin,nhpdliuvo ccngdngtinhc(TPRvBCTC),sdngcsdliunginp thumtcchhiuquvocngtckimtraphntchhsthula chndoanhnghipcrirocaoavokhochthanhkimtrat u nm 2013 trong tnh hnh ngun nhn lc cha p ng vi s lng ngi np thu ngy mt tng. -i miquytrnhlpkhochthanhtra,kimtractnhmcriro vt thu theo c ch t khai t np thu. -Nngcaothcphplutcngnhhiubitvthuchongidn khng b mc vo ti trn thu v thiu hiu bit v cc quy nh qun l thu. Hin nay Cc thu TPHCM ang trin khai thc hin tun l H tr NNT thc hin quyt ton thu TNCN nm 2012 t 25-31/3/2013.Hot ng ny nn c duy tr v t chc thng xuyn nhm gim thiu trn thu cng nh cc vi phm trong lnh vc hnh chnh thu ni chung. 5.3Hn ch v hng pht trin ca ti 5.3.1Hn ch ca ti S lng mu cha ln: MhnhNeuralNetworkcngnhphnlnnhngmhnhnghincu khc s cho kt qu chnh xc hn khi c qui m mu ln hn. Tuy nhin nc ta chchnhthcpdngcchtkhaitnpt01/07/2007nntcgichthu thpc66musliu,iunykhinchoktqumhnhchactnh thuyt phc cao. Hn ch v mt s liu:60 -Lut Qun l thu hin nay cho php DN c quyn t tnh, t khai, t npthu,trongkhi,theothngkcaCcthuTPHCM,vitl kim tra qun bnh hin nay, mi DN phi 10 nm mi b kim tra li mt ln.Theoquynh,vickimtra,quyttonthuchcthihiutrong vng5nm,cnghalDNnohn5nmmibkimtralsc thotnhngnmtrc.Chnhvthstinthutrnthcsphi ln hn rt nhiu so vi s thanh tra kim tra ca CQT. -S liu GDP v GDP/ngi cha c thng k theo thng nn phi thay bng s bnh qun ca qu (GDP) v theo nm (dn s) Tc gi cha c kinh nghim trong lnh vc nghin cu nn qu trnh thu thp d liu th cp v thc hin phn tch cn nhiu hn ch. 5.3.2Hng pht trin ca ti NghincuchngdngNeuroSolutionstrongvicxcnhccyut nhhngntrnthumchasdngntnhnngangrtc chcanldbo.Thnnrtcncnghincunhmdbo tnhhnhtrnthutcbinphpngnchnhplvkpthi, gim tht thu cho NSNN. Ta bit c yu t Gnh nng thu c nh hng mnh m n hnh vi trn thu, vy c th tip tc nghin cu tm ra Gnh nng thu ti u gipgimthiuhnhvitrnthunhngkhnglmgimngunthu ca NSNN. 61 Kt lun chng 5 Cui cng, sau qu trnh gii thiu t Chng 1, Chng 2, phn tch v nh gi t Chng 4, tc gi c c s a ra c cc gii php Chng 5.Tcgihyvngrngnhnggiiphpnggpnyscngdngvo thc t gip phn no ci thin c tnh hnh trn thu ngy cng nghim trng hin nay trn a bn TPHCM ni ring v c nc ni chung. i Ti liu tham kho Ting Vit 1)Anho(2010),Hngnghnnghiptrnthuribtrn,Thanhtra Vit Nam, ngy 26/09/2010. 2)CaoThng(2011).MtsvdphnloidngSOMvMLPNeural Network. 3)CaoThng,(2011).HngdnsdngphnmmmngnronSpice-MLP. 4) Cc thu TPHCM (2012), Nin gim thng k Thnh ph HCM 2011, NXB Thng k. 5) CcthuTPHCMBocotngktthchinnhimvcngtcthu 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 6) Thy (2012), K trn thu mang tn Coca-Cola Vit Nam, Tp ch ti chnh, ngy 10/12/2012. 7)H Linh (2012), Thu vi nhng chiu tr lch lut, Php lut x hi, ngy 25/09/2012. 8)Lut qun l thu s 78/2006/QH11 ca Quc hi kha XI, k hp th 10, ngy 29/11/1006, iu 108. 9) Minh Tr (2012), Khi doanh nghip FDI khai l, trn thu, Bo Doanh nhn si gn, ngy 21/12/2012. 10) Nguyn Ngc Duy Ngn (2012), Hon thin thanh tra, kim tra thu theo c ch t khai t np trn a bn tnh Ph Yn. tr3-7. 11) Nguyn Tho Thanh Vn, Bi Th Hng H, Trng Th Thng Thn, (2008). ng dng m hnh Neural Network trong vic d bo th trng chng khon Vit Nam. 12)NguynThLan(2009)Ccgiiphphnchvictrnthuvtrnh thu ca cc cng ty a quc gia hot ng trn lnh th Vit Nam. 13) Nguyn Vn Tun (2005). Mt s gii php thc hin c ch qun l t khai t np ti tnh Bnh Thun, tr4-9. ii 14) PhanHng(2004),Thimmhnhdoanhnghiptkhainpthu, Bo nhn dn, ngy 28/09/2004. 15) Phan Tn Pht (2008), p dng phn mm mng thn kinh nhn to d bo l h lu sng Thu Bn-Vu Gia, tr138-141 Ting Anh 1)Bayer,R.C.andSutterM.(2008),TheExcessBurdenofTaxevasion anExperimentalDetectionConcealmentContest.EuropeanEconomic Review, 1-17. 2)Caballe,J.&Panade,J(2000),Inflation,TaxEvasion,andthe Distribution of Consumption, Journal of Macroeconomics, 26,567595. 3)ClemensFuestandNadineRiedel(2009).Taxevasion,taxavoidance and tax expenditures in developing countries: A review of the literature. ReportpreparedfortheUKDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment (DFID). 4)Cobham(2005)Taxevasion,taxavoidanceanddevelopmentfinance, Working Paper Number 129. 5)Cranea,S.E.&Nourzad,F.(1986),Inflationandtaxevasion:an empiricalanalysis.TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,68(2),217-223. 6)Embaye,A.B.(2007),Taxevasionandgovernmentspendingin developingcountryandtheUndergroundEconomyinSouthAfrica.A DissertationSubmittedfordegreeofDoctorofPhilosophy.Economic report book yearly, from 1963-1980. 7)Fu,J.(1998)."ANeuralNetworkForecastofEconomicGrowthand Recession", The journal of Economics, XXIV (1), 51-66. 8)MohamadTaghiGilak,SaeedKarimiPetanlar,AhmadJafariSamimi, AlirezaAminkhaki(2012),AComparativeStudybetweenFormaland Informal Tax Evasion in Iran, J. Basic. Appl. Sci. Res., 2(5)5342-5345. iii 9)RaziehTabandeh(2011).MansorJusohEstimatingFactorsAffecting TaxEvasioninMalaysia.PROSIDINGPERKEMVII,JILID2(2012) 1524-1535. 10) Richardson (2008), The Relationship Between Culture and Tax Evasion AcrossCountriesAdditionalEvidenceandExtensions.Journalof International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 17: 67 78. 11) Tanzi,V.(1982),TheUndergroundEconomyintheUnitedStatesand Abroad. Lexington Books, Lexington, MA. iv Ph lc Ph lc 1. Bng d liu u vo ca m hnh Artificial Neural Network STTTBGYIOPTELABEL 10.159800.072202.78744100.820000.094380.031677-Jul 20.174150.063502.78744100.190000.096030.034027-Aug 30.215500.081932.78744100.500000.096590.043377-Sep 40.145190.046903.59642100.820000.080900.039167-Oct 50.147090.116573.59642101.350000.125870.042397-Nov 60.060990.097643.59642103.870000.124820.040567-Dec 70.283520.034532.60072101.300000.165010.040898-Jan 80.352570.099312.60072103.830000.163950.063418-Feb 90.245980.091982.60072101.920000.172590.034328-Mar 100.271850.072693.18161101.820000.146180.032398-Apr 110.197550.061543.18161104.240000.150140.030008-May 120.207770.068263.18161102.370000.162890.039128-Jun 130.195050.071673.39026100.540000.161820.032718-Jul 140.111080.106953.39026102.090000.168920.024198-Aug 150.418030.493373.39026100.120000.200690.045408-Sep 160.143830.044504.6140399.760000.106400.011668-Oct 170.093090.129444.6140399.310000.089510.018308-Nov 180.136770.091474.6140399.580000.091390.037898-Dec 190.320300.094792.70650100.040000.150830.050629-Jan 200.194490.075542.70650101.310000.150280.021719-Feb 210.215260.077692.70650100.030000.128970.036329-Mar 220.208000.057683.54494100.490000.086330.029059-Apr 230.173040.078123.54494100.630000.100790.030129-May 240.175690.073383.54494100.600000.107260.029329-Jun 250.167160.082004.00528100.680000.095510.037219-Jul 260.149420.133474.00528100.220000.096850.038949-Aug 270.160850.060584.00528101.590000.103040.033179-Sep 280.133670.072035.11385100.150000.082340.030369-Oct 290.120460.063295.11385100.550000.078830.030109-Nov 300.119220.133815.11385101.190000.082930.028839-Dec 310.343480.039463.34381101.270000.100120.0385610-Jan 320.181390.074563.34381101.680000.103360.0393210-Feb 330.221130.101973.34381100.780000.111220.0419710-Mar 340.240920.079543.96695100.230000.096800.0429510-Apr 350.193520.086163.96695100.480000.102590.0293710-May 360.214750.086683.96695100.350000.134710.0311710-Jun 370.128900.058886.4134099.910000.072250.0324710-Jul 380.104960.057436.4134099.750000.071640.0170110-Aug 390.103780.053666.41340100.970000.074410.0202310-Sep v 400.255230.088604.93652100.450000.093280.0407510-Oct 410.214420.077094.93652101.730000.095430.0329310-Nov 420.210130.138494.93652101.610000.104390.0339010-Dec 430.341030.041573.74998101.010000.120730.0348911-Jan 440.220730.494963.74998101.610000.111080.0437511-Feb 450.239490.086153.74998102.200000.140280.0405811-Mar 460.261050.046325.02105103.160000.111460.0480411-Apr 470.163120.056425.02105102.380000.112640.0192511-May 480.138680.069445.02105100.690000.123460.0152811-Jun 490.167700.047206.94573101.070000.090200.0369111-Jul 500.107910.060866.94573100.680000.088660.0194511-Aug 510.107560.060666.94573100.880000.080100.0434811-Sep 520.202670.083076.35344100.180000.087440.0201411-Oct 530.141190.068396.35344100.280000.099170.0199911-Nov 540.201520.100166.35344100.730000.103670.0388411-Dec 550.336180.059934.27408100.890000.112140.0547512-Jan 560.435100.056054.27408101.320000.120630.0830812-Feb 570.285610.069844.27408100.120000.137410.0646212-Mar 580.192030.053658.13699100.080000.072440.0361612-Apr 590.108080.067628.13699100.060000.072050.0566912-May 600.097780.075728.1369999.570000.077000.0165112-Jun 610.268590.091924.9942699.430000.127700.0383612-Jul 620.168600.100814.99426100.660000.137690.0301712-Aug 630.169520.116544.99426101.210000.136280.0360712-Sep 640.204480.090118.04818100.400000.079350.0336712-Oct 650.142790.083818.04818100.100000.077610.0250512-Nov 660.151570.191378.04818100.170000.077640.0219312-Dec vi Ph lc 2. Tng hp kt qu cng tc kim tra 2012 VT:Triu ng STTN V THC HIN NM 2011 K HOCH NM 2012 THC HIN NM 2012 T l thc hin nm 2012 so KH nm 2012 % thc hin nm 2012 so CK 2011 S lng S thu truy thu v pht S lng php lnh S lng phn u S thu truy thu v pht S DN kim tra S truy thu & pht S lng S thu S lng S thu Vn phng Cc thu1,3921,493,9191,92024071,070,0001,7531,942,44291%182%126%130% 1PHNG KIM TRA 1272512,572380474300,0003421,130,57090%377%126%221% 2PHNG KIM TRA 2319115,264450565230,000452211,252100%92%142%183% 3PHNG KIM TRA 3300498,056420527260,000411158,92698%61%137%32% 4PHNG KIM TRA 4316267,404450565200,000339346,91875%173%107%130% 5PHNG TNCN185100,62322027680,00020994,77695%118%113%94% Cc Chi Cc thu6,3991,367,53310,58013,2831,430,0009,2321,639,49787%115%144%120% 6 CCT QUN 1 579150,9798801105200,000759204,35486%102%131%135% 7 CCT QUN 2 17742,25634042740,00026250,90477%127%148%120% 8 CCT QUN 3 430127,375560703115,000771124,995138%109%179%98% 9CCT QUN 421034,34734042730,00020123,75359%79%96%69% vii Ngun: Cc thu TPHCM 10 CCT QUN 5 53483,73772090490,000637137,70188%153%119%164% 11 CCT QUN 6 35025,96855069030,00042636,30777%121%122%140% 12 CCT QUN 7 4972,90031038965,0009475,73430%117%192%104% 13 CCT QUN 8 9736,96025031432,00041839,195167%122%431%106% 14 CCT QUN 9 7827,84829036430,00011312,81039%43%145%46% 15CCT QUN 1040355,87359074187,00052471,76489%82%130%128% 16 CCT QUN 11 34040,86250062840,00041045,58582%114%121%112% 17 CCT QUN 12 9559,99441051550,00012775,33231%151%134%126% 18 CCT BNH THNH 33262,67959074185,00060768,937103%81%183%110% 19 CCT BNH CHNH 13219,82521026420,00024675,787117%379%186%382% 20 CCT Q. BNH TN 32457,60760075360,00047663,53979%106%147%110% 21CCT H. CN GI2080120251,000301,045150%104%150%130% 22 CCT H. C CHI 2914,22410513215,000429,01040%60%145%63% 23 CCT Q. G VP 489106,55070087990,00053892,71877%103%110%87% 24 CCT. H. HC MN 14729,54925031425,00012226,32849%105%83%89% 25 CCT H. NH B 205,5339011310,000627,33369%73%310%133% 26 CCT PH NHUN 475128,734640803105,000640142,647100%136%135%111% 27CCT Q. TN BNH732123,6769801230115,000971141,60799%123%133%114% 28 CCT Q. TN PH 20336,00936545860,00040769,877112%116%200%194% 29 CCT Q. TH C 15423,24929036435,00034942,233120%121%227%182% TNG CNG7,7912,861,45212,50015,6902,500,00010,9853,581,93988%143%141%125%