study: housing market falling short by 4m homes · written by tina fey and robert carlock, the...

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www.spotsndots.com Subscriptions: $350 per year. This publication cannot be distributed beyond the office of the actual subscriber. Need us? 888-884-2630 or [email protected] Copyright 2019. The Daily News of TV Sales Wednesday, January 22, 2020 NEW STARTS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH DEMAND Homebuilding took a sharp turn higher to end 2019, but it is far from enough to satisfy the current demand. The U.S. housing market is short nearly 4 million homes, according to new analysis from realtor.com, whose findings were reported by CNBC.com. Analyzing U.S. census data, the report showed that the 5.9 million single-family homes built between 2012 and 2019 do not offset the 9.8 million new households formed during that time. Even with an above- average pace of construction, it would take builders between four and five years to get back to a balanced market. The current shortfall can be blamed on the epic housing crash of more than a decade ago, brought on by irrational and unscrupulous mortgage lending. With loans available to even the riskiest buyers, builders responded by putting up 1.7 million single-family homes at the peak of the construction boom in 2005, according to the U.S. census. That was about 5 million more than the 20-year average. When the lion’s share of those bad mortgages defaulted, and millions of homes went into foreclosure, home construction plummeted. In addition, about 5 million homes were bought by investors and turned into rentals during and after the crisis, further lowering for-sale inventory. Builders crawled back after that, focusing on mostly higher-end homes, where the margins are more attractive. But lower mortgage rates and the aging millennial population have ignited demand in the last few years, and while builders put up 888,000 homes in 2019, it was still not enough. “Simply put, new home starts are not keeping pace with demand. Homebuilders have a mountain of opportunity, but a big hill to climb,” said Javier Vivas, director of economic research at realtor.com. “The current inventory crisis and the need for 3.8 million new homes means a nearly insatiable appetite from potential buyers, especially in the lower end of the market.” Builders are starting to address the entry-level market, offering smaller, more basic floor plans with stripped-down amenities. That should help, but only if millennials are willing to move further away from the cities. Adding to the supply crunch is the new desire among baby boomers to age in place. Older Americans are not freeing up their homes at the same rate as previous generations did at their age. Part of that is because so many millennials moved back in with their parents during the recession, unable to afford to either rent or buy their own space. That has left a shortage of move-up homes in some communities. “Large populations of renters and well-qualified potential buyers with strong incomes are waiting in the wings,” added Vivas. STUDY: HOUSING MARKET FALLING SHORT BY 4M HOMES ADVERTISER NEWS Planters has leaked what appears to be its upcoming Super Bowl spot. That’s according to Ad Age, which says fans of Mr. Peanut will want to brace themselves. We’ll spare you all the specifics, but the spot features a Nutmobile crash and ends with the words “Mr. Peanut, 1916-2020,” appearing across a black screen. No word yet on whether this is the official Super Bowl ad, and if so, if it was leaked intentionally... Target and Whole Foods are among a group of retail stores in Minneapolis not charging customers five cents for plastic and paper bags at the checkout. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports a new local ordinance, which requires retailers to charge customers a fee for each bag, went into effect Jan. 1. Other retailers within the city limits are adding the bag fee to purchases... Starbucks is launching an ambitious initiative to give more than it takes from the planet. In a public letter, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson announced a multi-decade commitment and aspiration to becoming a resource-positive company by storing more carbon than it emits, eliminating waste and providing more clean, freshwater than it uses. The announcement included science-based preliminary targets for the reduction of carbon emissions, water use and waste by 2030... A new survey indicates millennial shopping habits are more complex than they are often given credit for. According to the 2020 Consumer Culture Report from public relations agency 5WPR, millennial shoppers age 18- 34 are more likely to make impulse purchases (64%) than Gen X shoppers age 35-54 (53%) or baby boomer shoppers age 55 and older (36%). However, millennials are also more likely to watch carefully for sales before purchasing an item they really want (90%) than Gen Xers (85%) or baby boomers (79%). In addition, millennials (80%) are much more likely to keep a running wish list of items in their online carts at favorite e-commerce sites than Gen Xers (66%) or baby boomers (31%)... J.C. Penney is trimming its store portfolio. The department store retailer plans to shutter six stores by April 24, along with a call center in Lenexa, Kan. The closings, which were first reported by USA Today, will leave Penney with approximately 850 stores nationwide. The stores scheduled to close are Southgate Mall, Missoula, Mont.; Myrtle Beach Mall, Myrtle Beach, S.C.; Chapel Hill Mall, Akron, Ohio; North Hills Shopping Center, Raleigh, N.C.; Tulsa Promenade, Tulsa, Okla.; and Green Acres Mall, Valley Stream, N.Y. The company says the moves are part of an ongoing review of its store portfolio... Upscale stationery and gifts retailer Papyrus is closing up shop. The company, which is owned by Schurman Retail Group, is reportedly closing all locations. Papyrus once had more than 450 U.S. stores, but has been closing locations in recent years. The company now operates some 260 stores. According to the Chicago Tribune, employees were notified last week that all stores were expected to close in the next four to six weeks, with liquidation sales already underway in stores and online.

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Page 1: STUDY: HOUSING MARKET FALLING SHORT BY 4M HOMES · Written by Tina Fey and Robert Carlock, the untitled project ... Night Live on Feb. 1 – the episode following this week’s Adam

www.spotsndots.comSubscriptions: $350 per year.

This publication cannot bedistributed beyond the office

of the actual subscriber. Need us? 888-884-2630 or

[email protected] Copyright 2019.The Daily News of TV Sales Wednesday, January 22, 2020

NEW STARTS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH DEMAND Homebuilding took a sharp turn higher to end 2019, but it is far from enough to satisfy the current demand. The U.S. housing market is short nearly 4 million homes, according to new analysis from realtor.com, whose findings were reported by CNBC.com. Analyzing U.S. census data, the report showed that the 5.9 million single-family homes built between 2012 and 2019 do not offset the 9.8 million new households formed during that time. Even with an above-average pace of construction, it would take builders between four and five years to get back to a balanced market. The current shortfall can be blamed on the epic housing crash of more than a decade ago, brought on by irrational and unscrupulous mortgage lending. With loans available to even the riskiest buyers, builders responded by putting up 1.7 million single-family homes at the peak of the construction boom in 2005, according to the U.S. census. That was about 5 million more than the 20-year average. When the lion’s share of those bad mortgages defaulted, and millions of homes went into foreclosure, home construction plummeted. In addition, about 5 million homes were bought by investors and turned into rentals during and after the crisis, further lowering for-sale inventory. Builders crawled back after that, focusing on mostly higher-end homes, where the margins are more attractive. But lower mortgage rates and the aging millennial population have ignited demand in the last few years, and while builders put up 888,000 homes in 2019, it was still not enough. “Simply put, new home starts are not keeping pace with demand. Homebuilders have a mountain of opportunity, but a big hill to climb,” said Javier Vivas, director of economic research at realtor.com. “The current inventory crisis and the need for 3.8 million new homes means a nearly insatiable appetite from potential buyers, especially in the lower end of the market.” Builders are starting to address the entry-level market, offering smaller, more basic floor plans with stripped-down amenities. That should help, but only if millennials are willing to move further away from the cities. Adding to the supply crunch is the new desire among baby boomers to age in place. Older Americans are not freeing up their homes at the same rate as previous generations did at their age. Part of that is because so many millennials moved back in with their parents during the recession, unable to afford to either rent or buy their own space. That has left a shortage of move-up homes in some communities. “Large populations of renters and well-qualified potential buyers with strong incomes are waiting in the wings,” added Vivas.

STUDY: HOUSING MARKET FALLING SHORT BY 4M HOMESADVERTISER NEWS Planters has leaked what appears to be its upcoming Super Bowl spot. That’s according to Ad Age, which says fans of Mr. Peanut will want to brace themselves. We’ll spare you all the specifics, but the spot features a Nutmobile crash and ends with the words “Mr. Peanut, 1916-2020,” appearing across a black screen. No word yet on whether this is the official Super Bowl ad, and if so, if it was leaked intentionally... Target and Whole Foods are among a group of retail stores

in Minneapolis not charging customers five cents for plastic and paper bags at the checkout. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports a new local ordinance, which requires retailers to charge customers a fee for each bag, went into effect Jan. 1.

Other retailers within the city limits are adding the bag fee to purchases... Starbucks is launching an ambitious initiative to give more than it takes from the planet. In a public letter, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson announced a multi-decade commitment and aspiration to becoming a resource-positive company by storing more carbon than it emits, eliminating waste and providing more clean, freshwater than it uses. The announcement included science-based preliminary targets for the reduction of carbon emissions, water use and waste by 2030... A new survey indicates millennial shopping habits are more complex than they are often given credit for. According to the 2020 Consumer Culture Report from public relations agency 5WPR, millennial shoppers age 18-34 are more likely to make impulse purchases (64%) than Gen X shoppers age 35-54 (53%) or baby boomer shoppers age 55 and older (36%). However, millennials are also more likely to watch carefully for sales before purchasing an item they really want (90%) than Gen Xers (85%) or baby boomers (79%). In addition, millennials (80%) are much more likely to keep a running wish list of items in their online carts at favorite e-commerce sites than Gen Xers (66%) or baby boomers (31%)... J.C. Penney is trimming its store portfolio. The department store retailer plans to shutter six stores by April 24, along with a call center in Lenexa, Kan. The closings, which were first reported by USA Today, will leave Penney with approximately 850 stores nationwide. The stores scheduled to close are Southgate Mall, Missoula, Mont.; Myrtle Beach Mall, Myrtle Beach, S.C.; Chapel Hill Mall, Akron, Ohio; North Hills Shopping Center, Raleigh, N.C.; Tulsa Promenade, Tulsa, Okla.; and Green Acres Mall, Valley Stream, N.Y. The company says the moves are part of an ongoing review of its store portfolio... Upscale stationery and gifts retailer Papyrus is closing up shop. The company, which is owned by Schurman Retail Group, is reportedly closing all locations. Papyrus once had more than 450 U.S. stores, but has been closing locations in recent years. The company now operates some 260 stores. According to the Chicago Tribune, employees were notified last week that all stores were expected to close in the next four to six weeks, with liquidation sales already underway in stores and online.

Page 2: STUDY: HOUSING MARKET FALLING SHORT BY 4M HOMES · Written by Tina Fey and Robert Carlock, the untitled project ... Night Live on Feb. 1 – the episode following this week’s Adam

PAGE 2 The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com

SINCLAIR STIRR APP DOWNLOADED 1.6M TIMES Sinclair Broadcast Group’s streaming app STIRR has been downloaded more than 1.6 million times since debuting a year ago, and more content is on the way, the Baltimore Business Journal reports. The broadcaster plans to launch a new channel during the week of Jan. 20 dedicated to live 2020 election events. STIRR will also soon offer on-demand viewing of popular shows like Wheel of Fortune, Jeopardy, Judge Judy and The Ellen DeGeneres Show after they have aired. Sinclair, which has been criticized in the past for its political views, will provide coverage of town hall meetings and stump speeches across the U.S. without any commentary to give viewers “the most transparent, bias-free view into the campaign trail.” Sinclair executives have said they are expecting a big boost in political advertising revenue during the 2020 election, with candidates raising more money than ever before. STIRR launched one year ago with 24 channels and now offers more than 100. The ad-supported, free app allows users to watch content from any of Sinclair’s local markets. The company has 191 TV stations in 89 markets.

NETWORK NEWS American Ninja Warrior is returning for a ninth season. NBC said it has renewed the series for a return this summer. Production will begin in the spring. Hosted by Matt Iseman and Akbar Gbajabiamila along with sideline reporter Zuri Hall, the obstacle course competition series will shoot in three cities this season: Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and St. Louis. The show’s national finals will once again take place in Las Vegas. American Ninja Warrior is a solid ratings draw for NBC, last summer averaging a 1.1 rating in adults 18-49 and 5.4 million viewers overall in Live+7 Nielsens... Vella Lovell (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend) has been cast as a series regular opposite Ted Danson, Holly Hunter and Bobby Moynihan in NBC’s untitled L.A. Mayor comedy series. Written by Tina Fey and Robert Carlock, the untitled project stars Danson as a wealthy businessman who runs for mayor of Los Angeles for all the wrong reasons. Once he wins he has to figure out what he stands for, gain the respect of his staff, and connect with his teenage daughter, all while humanely controlling the coyote population... ABC has given a pilot order to Prospect, a single-camera comedy. This is the first in-cycle comedy pilot by ABC this season. Written by Sherry Bilsing-Graham and Ellen Kreamer and to be directed by Randall Einhorn, Prospect is described as a comedic Western with a feminist twist. An idealistic young woman moves to the frontier to be a schoolteacher, but her ideals quickly are tested when she learns that her students are rowdy ranch hands, not children... Houston Texans’ defensive end J.J. Watt will guest host NBC’s Saturday Night Live on Feb. 1 – the episode following this week’s Adam Driver-hosted return from holiday hiatus – with RuPaul set for Feb. 8. Musical guest for the Feb. 1 show will be Luke Combs. Justin Bieber will make his third SNL appearance as RuPaul’s musical guest. This week’s Driver-fronted episode will feature musical guest Halsey.

1/22/2020

Jim Gaffigan

You always hear swimming’s the best exercise. But have

you seen how fat whales are? Whales, they’re like

swimming all the time. It’s not working, whales.

AVAILS WAVY-TV 10 and WVBT FOX43 in the Norfolk, Va., market seeks a results-driven Account Executive. This experienced sales professional must have a winning attitude and a desire to succeed! Responsibilities include managing agency business, new business generation, client relationship building, proposal preparation and presentation to a diverse customer base. The position requires excellent communication, customer service, and time management skills. 2 years of media sales experience and a Bachelor’s degree preferred. CLICK HERE for more info or to apply. No

calls, please. EOE/M/F/V/D. NBCUniversal Owned Television Stations’ Advertising Sales team is seeking a Political AE who will be an exceptional addition to our Political team. A Political Account Executive at NBC & Telemundo Owned Stations will own the execution of Political campaigns, create presentations, work with station personnel on implementation, and be a resource for our valued clients. The right person for this role is passionate about

Political, Government and Advocacy advertising campaigns and will want to grow their career in sales. For details and to apply, visit nbcunicareers.com and search 52998BR. EOE. KIMT-TV, the CBS Affiliate in Rochester, Minn., has an immediate opening for a Chief Engineer. This person is responsible for all studio and transmission technical operations, maintenance and information systems. As part of the station’s senior management team, this position plays a vital role in station strategic planning, budgeting and day-to-day operations. Rochester is a growing family-friendly community, rated as one of the best cities to live in the Midwest and the home of the world renowned Mayo Clinic. Apply at www.kimt.com or send cover letter/resume to: [email protected]. EOE.

See your ad here tomorrow! CLICK HERE for details.

NETFLIX ADDS 8.8M GLOBAL SUBSCRIBERS IN Q4 Netflix racked up 8.76 million global paid subscribers last quarter — hitting 167.1 million — beating expectations overall but still soft on U.S. additions. Earnings in the fourth quarter popped and revenue came in a hair higher than anticipated, the company said yesterday. The latest financial and subscriber numbers were hotly anticipated as testament to the streamer’s ability to withstand growing competition. Disney+ and Apple TV+ launched last fall. Two more heavyweight rivals, HBO Max and Peacock, will land this spring. Netflix had seen subdued growth in domestic subscribers versus international even before the glut of new entrants. To compete, it’s been ramping up spending on content and beachheads around the world, outlays of billions that has had some investors fretting. In its quarterly letter to shareholders yesterday, the company acknowledged that the launch of rival streaming services hurt results in the U.S. and Canada, where net additions came in at about one-third of where they were in the year-earlier fourth quarter.

Page 3: STUDY: HOUSING MARKET FALLING SHORT BY 4M HOMES · Written by Tina Fey and Robert Carlock, the untitled project ... Night Live on Feb. 1 – the episode following this week’s Adam

The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com PAGE 3

OUTLOOK: GROWTH FOR AD, MARKETING SPEND A new study from Winterberry Group indicates that advertising and marketing spending should grow significantly this year. The specialist management consultancy sees spending reaching $389.5 billion, an increase of 7.2 percent. That projected 2020 increase follows 2.7 percent growth last year and 15.1 percent in 2018. More than 57 percent of the total spending (or $223.1 billion) will be on offline channels like linear TV. Addressable TV should see the largest boost, with Winterberry Group predicting a 44 percent increase to $2.9

billion. Linear TV is anticipated to see a 1.9 percent increase to $65.5 billion, making it the largest category for offline spending, followed by experiential/sponsorship, which is expected to increase 3.1 percent to $48.5 billion. Online advertising is anticipated to grow across the board this year, increasing 14.5 percent to $166.4 billion. The study also sees a continued shift by consumers to pursue experiences (+6.3%) over actual goods. It also says

the top attributes to secure brand trust are reliability (40%), relevance (32%) and credibility (29%).

POLL: APPLE TV+ STRUGGLES TO GAIN TRACTION Only around 5 percent of U.S. streaming homes tried the new Apple TV+ SVOD service in the fourth quarter. Nearly 20 million U.S. streaming households, around 23 percent of the overall market, used Disney+ in December. And 90 percent of those users also subscribe to Netflix. That’s according to a poll of 18,946 consumers in the fourth quarter, conducted by HarrisX for equity research firm MoffettNathanson. The findings were reported by Next TV. The data revealed a maturing U.S. streaming market — penetration by streaming services in the U.S. only grew from 68 percent to 72 percent from October 2018 to December 2019, after expanding much faster previously in the decade. The news about Disney+’s fast uptake isn’t surprising, with Disney revealing close to 10 million signups in the first 24 hours after the service’s Nov. 12 launch. Users, the HarrisX poll said, were engaged, with 41 percent of them streaming content daily.

1/22/2020

FunnyTweeter.com

My cat’s birthday is tomorrow and my mean boss said I still have to come to work this week.

MONDAY NIELSEN RATINGS - LIVE + SAME DAY

BLOOMBERG DRIVING TV AD PRICES HIGHER Unprecedented campaign spending by Michael Bloomberg is a windfall for television stations across the U.S., but it might not be such a good thing for others — including the former New York City mayor’s fellow Democratic candidates, Politico reports. Just two months into his campaign, Bloomberg — who as of yesterday had a net worth of more than $60 billion, according to Forbes — has already spent nearly a quarter of a billion dollars. Eight weeks into his presidential campaign, Bloomberg has already spent more money on advertising ($248 million) than most candidates could spend in years. That amount has squeezed TV ad inventory in nearly every state, lowering supply and causing stations to raise ad prices at a time of high demand, as candidates around the country gear up for their primaries. Average prices for political ads across the nation have increased by 20 percent since Bloomberg’s campaign commenced, Politico says. But media buyers cited in the report say Bloomberg’s pursuit of the Democratic presidential nomination isn’t the only factor driving prices higher: Inventory is growing increasingly scarce as early primary states will begin voting in the upcoming weeks. This is leading to concerns that down-ballot candidates won’t be able to execute advertising strategies. “There is no doubt that rates are being driven up and it is making it much more expensive for congressional candidates and other down-ballot races to communicate in their own primaries,” a Democratic strategist said. “In some ways that is difficult for candidates and campaigns that have been disciplined about raising money and are now faced with the fact that their money will not go nearly as far.”

HEDGE FUND PUSHES TEGNA FOR SALE, MERGER Another large investor in Tegna wants the U.S. regional TV station operator to pursue a merger or sale, arguing a tie-up could be very valuable at a time the industry is facing a wave of consolidation, two people familiar with the matter tell Reuters. Hedge fund HG Vora Capital Management, which owns about 4 percent of Tegna’s stock, is the third investor to push for changes at Tegna. Standard General has laid the groundwork for a proxy contest and Donerail also wants changes to be made. Standard General, which owns 9.7 percent of Tegna shares, last week said that it plans to nominate four directors to the company’s 11-member board, including Soohyung Kim, Standard General’s founder and portfolio manager. Talks between Tegna and Standard General about board seats have faltered, with the company saying publicly that it has “serious concerns (about Kim’s) prior business and board service.” Tegna said it will evaluate Standard General’s three other nominees. HG Vora, run by Parag Vora, is likely to be supportive of Standard General’s board nominees, one of the people said. HG Vora oversees $5.3 billion in assets.