study design: the blueprint for success tharyan.pdf · prathap tharyan md, mrcpsych. professor of...

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IASCT: Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai Study Design: The Blueprint for success Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore Director, South Asian Cochrane Network & Centre Prof BV Moses & ICMR Centre for Advanced Research & Training in EvidenceInformed Healthcare Christian Medical College, Vellore

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Page 1: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT: Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Study Design: The Blueprint for success

Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych

Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore

Director, South Asian Cochrane Network  & Centre

Prof BV Moses & ICMR Centre for Advanced Research & Training in 

Evidence‐Informed Healthcare

Christian Medical College,  Vellore

Page 2: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Don’t Just Do It

Do It RightBecause it matters……

If you want to conduct research……

Page 3: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Who needs reliable evidence?

Health Professionals at all levels, Health Researchers, 

Health Policy Makers, Care Givers and Patients. 

EVERYBODY

Page 4: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

THIS TALK IS DEDICATED TO ALL  OUR MOTHERS

Page 5: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

WHAT ARE WE TRYING TO AVOID?

Page 6: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Getting the evidence right: What Is The Truth Here?  Look out for my new book, “7 habits of highly successful 

and popular people who are 

also sensitive boyfriends. ”Biased publications: Cost?

Page 7: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

He doesn’t really know what I 

want….All he thinks of is his book..His friend is so much more 

sensitive to my needs

Confound it!What will they both 

do when they find 

out I’m gay?

Page 8: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Getting the evidence right: the effects of chance  

What are the chances 

of this happening?Is this a coincidence?Does it happen 

everyday?Or is this an Al Qaeda 

plot?

Surfers rule

Dolphins rule

Page 9: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Threats to Internal Validity

•Any 

factor 

or 

process 

that 

tends 

to 

deviate 

the 

results 

or 

conclusions of a trial systematically away from the truth•Deviation 

in 

results 

can 

occur 

due 

to 

systematic 

(bias) 

or 

random errors (chance)•Random errors reduce with increase in sample size; detected 

by p values•Bias 

can 

result 

in 

overestimates 

or 

underestimates 

of 

the 

results of a trial (cannot be detected by p values)•Bias 

can 

occur 

due 

to 

voluntary 

or 

involuntary 

reasons 

(not 

the same as fraud)

Page 10: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

The Gold Standard for assessing 

the evidence of the efficacy of  interventions 

Most prone to bias

A study design that minimizes bias, confounding and the  play of

chance

Least biased

Page 11: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; MumbaiPLOS Medicine August 2005

“In a chase for statistical significance”

Page 12: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

The use of 

many small randomized trials with 

clinically non‐relevant outcomes,

improper interpretation of statistical significance, 

manipulated study design, 

biased selection of study populations, 

short follow‐up, and 

selective and distorted reporting of results

has built and nourished a seemingly evidence‐based myth of 

antidepressant effectiveness

Philosophy, Ethics, and Humanities in Medicine 2008, 3:14  doi:10.1186/1747‐5341‐3‐14

Page 13: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Getting the evidence straight requires a special effort 

Needs a systematic review“A review in which bias has been reduced by the systematic 

identification, 

critical 

appraisal, 

and, 

if 

relevant, 

statistical 

aggregation 

(meta‐analysis) 

of 

all 

relevant 

studies 

on 

specific 

topic 

according 

to 

predetermined 

and explicit method.”

Modified from Moher

et al Lancet 1999

Page 14: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Getting the evidence straight 

What is needed?

Ensure all relevant research is considered

Critically appraise research for quality (risk of bias)  and applicability

Synthesize research findings using appropriate  methods

Page 15: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Page 16: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

GRADE separates

The overall quality of the evidence 

and confidence in the resultStrength of the recommendations

Strong recommendations: 

most informed patients would 

choose the recommended 

management

Weak recommendations: 

patients’

choices will vary 

according to their values and 

preferences

Grading of Recommendations: Assessment, Development  and Evaluation

http://www.gradeworkinggroup.org

Page 17: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

levels of ‘Quality’ (or confidence in the effect estimate)

4 = High

3 = Moderate

2 = Low

1 = Very low

Further research is very unlikely to change our confidence in the estimate of effect

Further research is likely to have an important impact on our confidence in the estimate of effect and may change the estimate

Further research is very likely to have an important impact on our confidence in the estimate of effect and is likely to change the estimate

We are very uncertain about the estimate

Page 18: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Grading of Recommendations Assessment,

Development and Evaluation

5 factors to consider• Study Limitations • Indirectness • Inconsistency • Imprecision • Other

Were the studies free of the risk of bias?Where; in whom; and how were the trials done?Is there unexplained heterogeneity?Is the result statistically and clinically important?Publication Bias? Conflicts of interest? Design

specific issues: cross-over trials etc

Grading of Recommendations Assessment,

Development and Evaluation

Page 19: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

5 criteria• Limitations (of study design) No serious limitations• Inconsistency (between results) Serious inconsistency (-1)• Indirectness (of evidence) Very serious indirectness (-2)• Imprecision (of measure of effect)• Other (publication bias)

1 Downgraded for serious inconsistency because……….2 Downgraded for very serious indirectness because…….

Quality of Evidence = VERY LOW

Page 20: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Page 21: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

The GRADE approach for guideline panels

• Decide on the overall quality of evidence across 

outcomes. 

• Include judgments about the underlying values and 

preferences  of management options & outcomes. 

• Decide on the balance of desirable and undesirable 

effects. 

• Decide on the balance of net benefits and cost. 

• Grade the strength of recommendation. 

• Formulate a recommendation. 

• Implement and evaluate. 

Page 22: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

The single best source of reliable and timely evidence

www.thecochranelibrary.com

Free to all in India thanks to ICMR

Page 23: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

www.cochrane.org

•Reliable•Independent•Timely

Page 24: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Page 25: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

EVIDENCE BASED MEDICINE

The integration of research 

evidence, clinical expertise 

and patient values

(Sackett

et al, 2000)

Evidence‐Based Medicine Working Group: Evidence‐based medicine. A new 

approach to teaching the practice of medicine. JAMA. 1992;268: 2420‐5

http://www.cebm.utoronto.ca/

Is the Evidence Valid?

Page 26: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Addressing the gaps between evidence and  practice

Practice

Research

Evidenc

e

Getting the evidence straight Getting the evidence used

Glasziou

P, Haynes B. ACP J Club. 2005

“Seeing through a dark glass dimly”

Presenter
Presentation Notes
We have remarkably little knowledge about what works for getting evidence to practice
Page 27: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Science and ethics are inseparable in research

Research 

that 

does 

not 

yield 

valid 

results 

is  unethical 

Research, even if valid, that 

does not 

follow ethical  norms is in‐excusable

Invalid and unethical research cause harms:•

from wrong evaluations or estimations; 

ineffective or harmful treatments; 

denial of effective interventions and 

betrayal 

of 

the 

trust   of   research 

participants 

and 

users 

of healthcare

Page 28: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

The current status of medical research

Not all research is meant to improve the lives of patients

Not all research is conducted using methods that eliminate 

bias and the effects of confounders and hence provide 

reliable results

Not all research is actually needed

Not all research that reports favourable

results actually has 

favourable

results

Not all reported research reflects all research that has 

been conducted

Not all clinical guideline developers understand or use 

evidence

Most clinicians believe what they read

Page 29: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Science & Ethics as it is today

Research SocietyEthical 

oversight

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Insert a picture illustrating a season in your country.
Page 30: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Science & Ethics as it should be

ResponsibleResearch

Responsive Society

Ethical oversight

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Insert a picture illustrating a season in your country.
Page 31: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

What contributes to ethical and valid  research?

Page 32: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

AREAS OF CONCERN WITH CLINICAL  TRIALS

Industry Trials

Investigator initiated trials

Page 33: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Industry trials

Social relevance vs. stock market relevance•

Patent expiring soon‐

replace with “me too”

drug

Disease mongering‐

to create a market

Advancing science (EBM) vs. advancing profits (MBM)•

Selection of participants

Choice of comparator (no equipoise)

Choice of  outcomes 

Statistical vs. clinical significance

Duration of follow up

Surrogate outcomes/ composite outcomes

Multiple outcomes/subgroups

Selective reporting

Studies

Outcomes/data from outcomes

Interpreting results

Page 34: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Investigator‐

initiated trials

Social relevance vs. academic relevance

No protocol

Inadequate knowledge of research methods

No sample size calculation

Quality of data collection

Improper study designs

Improper analyses‐

over‐reliance on p values

Not publishing (after presenting in a conference/ completing a thesis)

Inadequate reporting of data and outcomes

Selective reporting of outcomes and  data

Page 35: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

THE EVIDENCE FOR THESE  ASSERTIONS

Page 36: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Months0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Prop

ortio

n pu

blis

hed

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

month 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120# published 57 354 865 248 193 74 27 20 27 2 2# remaining 3,138 2,972 2,572 1,744 1,548 1,133 1,006 734 674 100 98

Cumulative Time from Presentation to Full Publication of RCTs

Source: Scherer et al, 2005. Systematic review of 79 reports. Cochrane Library

Page 37: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Research funded by drug companies was less likely to be 

published than research funded by other sources.

Studies sponsored by pharmaceutical companies were more 

likely to have outcomes favouring the sponsor than were 

studies with other sponsors (odds ratio 4.05; 95% confidence 

interval 2.98 to 5.51; 18 comparisons).

BMJ, 2003

Page 38: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Selective outcome reportingComparison of 102 trial protocols submitted in 1994‐1995 to and 

approved by the scientific‐ethics committees for Copenhagen and 

Frederiksberg Denmark, with 122 subsequent publications 

Chan AW et al. JAMA 2004

Findings•

Nearly two‐thirds of the studies had a change in at least one 

primary outcome between the protocol and publication•

Statistically significant outcomes had a higher likelihood of 

being reported compared to non‐significant findings

Page 39: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Suppression of  unfavourable

results

Presenter
Presentation Notes
British courts uncovered evidence of deliberate, systematic suppression of unfavorable Paxil research results – no evidence of efficacy in children and increased suicide risk. In early 2004, GSK agreed to settle charges of consumer fraud for $2.5 million (a small price to pay for the $2.7 billion in yearly Paxil sales at that time)
Page 40: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

A systematic review and meta‐analysis that avoids publication bias

Page 41: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

The Emperor’s New Drugs: Kirsch et al 2002

Analysis of the efficacy data from 47 RCTs

submitted  to the U.S. FDA for approval of the 6 most widely 

prescribed antidepressants approved between 1987  and 1999 (fluoxetine, paroxetine, sertraline, nefazodone, 

venlafaxine, citalopram)

Approximately 80% of the response to medication  was duplicated in placebo control groups, and the  mean difference between drug and placebo was 

approximately 2 points on the 17‐item (50‐pt) and 21‐ item (62‐pt) HAM D Scale.

Improvement at the highest doses of medication was  not different from improvement at the lowest doses. 

Page 42: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

PLoS

Med 2008;  5(2): e45. doi:10.1371/journal. pmed.0050045

•A previously published meta‐analysis (Kirsch et al, 2002)  of the 

published and unpublished trials on SSRIs

submitted to the FDA during 

licensing has indicated that these drugs have only a marginal clinical 

benefit. 

•On average, the SSRIs

improved the Hamilton Rating Scale for 

Depression score of patients by 1.8 points more than the placebo, 

whereas NICE has defined a significant clinical benefit for 

antidepressants as a drug–placebo difference in the improvement of 

the HRSD score of 3 points. 

Page 43: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; MumbaiPLoS

Med 2008;  5(2): e45. doi:10.1371/journal. 

•However, average improvement scores may obscure beneficial effects 

between different groups of patient, so in the meta‐analysis in this 

paper, the researchers investigated whether the baseline severity of 

depression affects antidepressant efficacy.

Page 44: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

•Data on all the clinical trials submitted to the FDA for the licensing of 

fluoxetine, venlafaxine, nefazodone, and paroxetine. 

• Meta‐analytic techniques to investigate whether the initial severity of 

depression affected the HRSD improvement scores for the drug and

placebo groups in these trials. 

•Confirmed first that the overall effect of these new generation of 

antidepressants was below the recommended criteria for clinical 

significance. 

Page 45: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

•Virtually no difference in the improvement scores for drug and placebo 

in patients with moderate depression and only a small and clinically 

insignificant difference among patients with very severe depression•The difference in improvement between the antidepressant and 

placebo reached clinical significance, however, in patients with

initial 

HRSD scores of more than 28—that is, in the most severely depressed 

patients. •Additional analyses indicated that the apparent clinical effectiveness of 

the antidepressants among these most severely depressed patients

reflected a decreased responsiveness to placebo rather than an 

increased responsiveness to antidepressants.

Page 46: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

• Conclusions: There is little reason to prescribe new‐generation  antidepressant medications to any but the most severely depressed 

patients unless alternative treatments have been ineffective. 

Page 47: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

OUCH! THAT HURTSWhat do we say to that?

Page 48: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Among 

74 

FDA‐registered 

studies, 

31%, 

accounting 

for 

3449 

study participants, were not published. 

Whether 

and 

how 

the 

studies 

were 

published 

were 

associated 

with the study outcome. 

total 

of 

37 

studies 

viewed 

by 

the 

FDA 

as 

having 

positive 

results 

were 

published; 

One 

study 

viewed 

as 

positive 

was 

not 

published. 

Studies 

viewed 

by 

the 

FDA 

as 

having 

negative 

or 

questionable 

results 

were, 

with 

exceptions, 

either 

not 

published 

(22 

studies) 

or 

published 

in 

way 

that, 

in 

the 

authors 

opinion, 

conveyed a positive outcome (11 studies). 

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Selective publication leads to clinicians believing what they read- that antidepressants are very effective when the truth is different
Page 49: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

According  to 

the 

published 

literature, 

it 

appeared that 94% of the trials conducted were  positive. 

By 

contrast, 

the 

FDA 

analysis 

showed 

that 

51%  were positive. 

Separate meta‐analyses of the 

FDA 

and 

journal  data sets showed that the increase in effect size  ranged from 11 to 69% for individual drugs and  was 32% overall.

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Selective publication leads to clinicians believing what they read- that antidepressants are very effective when the truth is different
Page 50: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

The drugs were bupropion

SR, citalopram, duloxetine,   escitalopram, fluoxetine, mirtazapine, nefazodone, 

paroxetine, sertraline, venlafaxine

and venlafaxine

XR

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Selective publication leads to clinicians believing what they read- that antidepressants are very effective when the truth is different
Page 51: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

One question

Is a difference in 2‐3 points on the HDRS  a clinically important outcome for 

people with depression?

Page 52: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

UNREAL TRIALS FOR THE REAL  WORLD

Exclusion criteria in clinical trials

Page 53: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

A Reevaluation of the Exclusion Criteria Used

in Antidepressant Efficacy Trials

Posternak

et al, Am J Psychiatry 2002; 159:191–200)

Page 54: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

WHY THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN  WHAT WE BELIEVE AND WHAT WE 

NOW READ?

What is the truth?

Is meta‐analysis rubbish or there more to it?

Page 55: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

What is needed are higher evidence standards

While placebo controls are needed due to the high placebo 

response rates in depression, comparisons with active drugs 

mostly show no differences for any class of antidepressant

Use of clinically relevant outcomes ( clinical improvement, 

employment, QOL, etc) rather than  rating scales.

Pragmatic trials with fewer exclusion criteria

Prospective registration of trials and making  data sets of results 

available

large long‐term trials and 

careful prospective meta‐analyses of individual‐level data

Philosophy, Ethics, and Humanities in Medicine 2008, 3:14 doi:10.1186/1747‐5341‐3‐14

Page 56: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Outcome measures used in psychiatric trials

Page 57: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Quality of Schizophrenia trials

Overall, the quality of reporting was poor•

Score of 3 or > was predefined as better 

quality ‐

33% of North American RCTs

‐ 36% of European RCTs

‐ 43% of ROW RCTs

(46% from Canada, Middle East & Asia) Thornley

& Adams. BMJ 1998

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Overall, just under two-thirds scored 2 or less, which means that the study barely, if at all, described any attempt to reduce the potential for introduction of bias at allocation or rating of outcome.
Page 58: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Quality in Schizophrenia RCTs

Average number of sample  = 65 with no  change over time

For an outcome to show clinically significant  improvement of 20% a study would need 150 

participants in each arm •

Only 3% of RCTs

were of this size or greater

Thornley

& Adams. BMJ 1998

Presenter
Presentation Notes
E.G. Outcome such as clinically important improvement in mental state to show a 20% difference between groups a study would need 150 participants in each arm with alpha at 0.05 and power of 85%
Page 59: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Sample size in 2000 trials Thornley

1998

Page 60: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Rating scales in Mental Health

No other branch of the health sciences uses as many rating 

scales as does mental health

Hardly any clinicians use rating scales in clinical practice to 

determine outcomes

Continuous outcomes (Mean & SD) from rating scales are 

assessed by significance tests and generate p values

Many researchers pay obeisance to the almighty p value

The almighty p value can be very deceptive as statistically 

significant results from rating scales may prove the effects of 

interventions are not  due to chance but do not indicate how 

effective the interventions are likely to be (statistical versus

clinical significance)

Page 61: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

What do changes in rating scales mean clinically?

Clinicians tend to assess:severity as mild /moderate /severe  andimprovement as worse, no change, mildly better, 

moderately better, much better, completely well 

Similar to the Clinical Global Impressions‐

Severity  &Improvement (CGI)

Presenter
Presentation Notes
This study attempted to correlate the commonly used BPRS with the Clinical Global Impressions (CGI) -severity and improvement scales that rates people on severity and on improvement using a format most similar to the ways clinicians and patients/carers think. A likert type scale rating improvement as not improved through mildly and very much improved to completely well.
Page 62: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

What do changes in rating scales mean clinically?

Page 63: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

What do changes in rating scales mean clinically?

Page 64: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Why not use better anchored versions of the CGI  for research?

There is a need for revising outcome measures used in 

psychiatric research to be more clinically meaningful and 

more reflective of clinical practice and use

outcomes of 

importance to clinicians and patients. 

Page 65: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Improving the standards of clinical trials

Catch them younger

Page 66: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

www.consort‐statement.org

Page 67: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Ethical  Considerations

Page 68: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

CRITICAL ISSUES ON THE DESIGN  AND REPORTING OF RCTS

Page 69: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Ingredients for a good protocol

Is there a justification for the trial based on the results of a

good quality systematic review?

Does the protocol contain a well constructed research 

question with details of participants, interventions, 

comparisons (including routes and doses) and outcomes, 

(primary and secondary) (PICO)?

Does the protocol describe adequately the methods to 

generate the randomization sequence, conceal allocation, 

blind participants and outcome assessors and evaluate 

blinding (if appropriate), and methods to deal with trial 

attrition?

Page 70: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Target Population

Allocation

Follow up Follow up

Exposed to intervention

Not exposed to intervention

Intervention group Control group

Blinding of investigator/

subjectBlinding ofoutcome

assessment

Intention-to-treatFollow up

Allocation concealment

Method to minimize

Selection

Performance

Detection

Attrition

OutcomeOutcome

Biases

Page 71: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Selection bias

systematic differences in participant characteristics

at the 

start of a trial

occurs at the time of allocation into comparison groups

Intervention group Control group

Page 72: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Selection bias

If groups differ at baseline in characteristics that alter 

prognosis, this will influence differences in outcomes 

between interventions

Inadequately concealed allocation in trials 

overestimate treatment effects by:

~ 30% ( 95% CI 21% ‐

38%) (Schulz et al, 1994)

Most important source of bias

Schulz KF et al. JAMA 1994; 272:125‐128

Page 73: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Allocation concealment vs

blinding

time

randomisation

Concealment of allocation Blinding

Selection bias Performance bias & outcome detection bias

•Blinding may not be always possible but allocation concealment is always possible (even in surgical trials)•Without allocation concealment, blinding may be difficult

Page 74: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

The effect of blinding on outcome

Inadequate 

blinding 

leads 

to 

performance 

bias 

(differential 

interventions) 

as 

well 

as 

detection 

bias

and 

differential placebo effects

Inadequately 

blinded 

or 

open 

trials 

tend 

to 

over‐estimate 

results than adequately blinded trials by•

17% (Schulz et al, 1995) 

35% (1% to 57%) (Juni

1999)

Schulz KF et al. JAMA 1995; 273: 408‐412

Page 75: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Attrition bias

Systematic differences in the loss of participants to follow 

up

between groups (and from start of trial)

Participants lost to follow up, or not included in the outcome 

assessment, could be different from those who remained in 

the trial

Occurs over the duration of follow up 

Avoiding attrition bias

Completeness of follow up

describe proportion of participants lost to follow‐up (with 

reasons)

Page 76: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Dealing with missing data•

Analysis of ‘completers’

only 

Intention to treat•

For continuous data 

Imputation of simple mean 

Imputation of regression mean 

Last observation carried forward 

For dichotomous data

Assuming worst case scenarios

Imputing event rates for missing values

Sensitivity analysis: comparing results of  completers versus ITT analyses

Page 77: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Ingredients…continued

Does the protocol describe in sufficient detail the  estimated sample size for the primary outcome(s)  and (if needed, secondary outcomes) and its 

justification? Are the outcomes clinically relevant?

Does the protocol describe adequately the  responsibilities of investigators and methods to 

ensure integrity of data collected and rules for  interim analysis?

Does the protocol ensure that all elements that are  required to be reported by the CONSORT and ICMJE  guidelines will be collected and recorded?

Page 78: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Ingredients‐

continued

Are ethical issues addressed adequately in  accordance with international and local 

regulations and requirements?

Has ethics committee approval been obtained?

Is the trial registered prospectively in a publicly  accessible Trials Register? (Avoiding  reporting 

biases)

Page 79: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Ingredients‐

when reporting results

Is the trial registration number reported?

Have deviations from the protocol been reported?

Is there a description or diagram of participant flow though 

the various stages of the trial?

Have absolute values been reported in addition to 

proportions for binary outcomes?

Have means as well as standard deviations (or standard 

errors) and numbers of participants for each intervention 

been reported for continuous outcomes?

Have effect measures and confidence intervals been 

reported in addition to (or instead of) p values?

Page 80: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Ingredients‐

when reporting results

Have drop‐outs and withdrawals been described? Was an 

intention to treat analysis used?

Have post‐hoc analyses and sub‐group analyses been kept to 

a minimum?

Have all important outcomes been reported?

Have funding sources and conflicts of interest been 

declared?

Page 81: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

HOW NOT TO DO IT

Assessing the validity of interventional  research in India

Page 82: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

The internal validity of RCTs from India“Sub-optimal …or shall I shall say..Poor show, old chap?”

Page 83: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

2004 & 2005 compared to 2007 & 2008

Of the 65 journals:•

38 

(59%) 

in 

2005 

and 

37 

(57%) 

in 

2008 

mentioned 

the 

ICMJE 

requirements in their instructions for authors, 

Only 

20 

(31%) 

in 

2005 

and 

22 

(33%) 

in 

2008 

specifically 

required

authors 

to 

submit 

manuscripts 

in 

accordance 

with 

the 

CONSORT 

statement. 

Of 

151 

RCTs

published 

in 

2004‐2005, 

and 

145 

RCTs

published 

in 2007‐2008:•

Only 4/13 (31%) of selected CONSORT items were reported in > 50%

of 

trial reports.

George A, Kirubakaran

P, Barnabas J, Tharyan

P. 3rd

South Asian Regional 

symposium in Evidence‐informed Healthcare Jan 2010

Page 84: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Unhappy Endings

Improved

Improved

Improved

No change

No changeNo change

No change

No change

No change

No change

Worse

Worse

Worse

Page 85: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Ethical Considerations

108 (71)107 (73)

103 (68)118 (81)

39 (25)66 (45) *

11 (7)60 (41) *

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Number of Trials (%)

Ethical Committee ClearenceInformed Consent

Source of FundingConflicts of Interest

Figure - II: Reporting of ICMJE Requirments

2007-2008(145)2004-2005(151)

*Conflicts of Interest

: Odds Ratio

2.4;

95% CI (1.4 ‐

4.0)

*Source of Funding

:   Odds Ratio

8.9; 95% CI (4.2 ‐

19.2)

Page 86: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

More unhappy endings: The internal validity of RCTs

in Mental Health in LMICs

Internal validity measure N=177 

Sequence generation 30 (17%)

Allocation concealment

Blinding

21 (12%)

109 (62%)

Assessment of blinding 0 (0%)

Page 87: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Poor quality of research

Fourth Congress on Peer Review in  Biomedical Publication concluded that:

Medical journals are full of serious  methodological errors 

Journal editors are giving no time, energy and  thought to their craft

Studies are published that reach false  conclusions

BMJ, 2001

Page 88: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Whose fault is this?

Editors

Peer reviewers

Researchers

Institutions

Institutional review boards•

Ethics committees

Research committees

Funders of research

Educational programmes

and educators

Implementers of research evidence

Consumers

The system of complacency

Chaltha

he!

Its only a PG thesisanyway

Page 89: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

IF YOU WANT A GREAT ENDING..

YOU NEED A GREAT BEGINNING…

AND MIDDLE…

Improve the design

and conduct of research.. 

To improve the reporting of results

of research

Ensure  that trials are prospectively registered with  IRB approval to prevent reporting biases

Page 90: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Clinical Trials Registry‐

India

www.ctri.in

The CTRI is a Primary Register of the WHO-ICTRP

Page 91: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Mission and Vision 

Mission•

Encourage 

all 

clinical 

trials 

to 

be

prospectively 

registered before enrolment of first patient•

To comply with ICMJE and WHO‐ICTRP requirements

Vision•

Ensure registration of all clinical trials prospectively

Ensure 

voluntary 

disclosure 

of 

all 

items 

in 

the  register :

To improve transparency

To improve internal validity of trials 

Conform to accepted ethical standards

Page 92: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Registration Data Set:  CTRI specific items 

Trial registration data set with explanations can be downloaded

Page 93: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Page 94: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Compliance

100% : 13/20

95‐99%: 5/20

90‐95%: 1/20

85‐90%: 1/20

Page 95: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Ethics committee 

approval:100%

Random sequence 

generation: 82.6%

Allocation 

concealment: 76%

Blinding 85%

Page 96: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Comparing the endings and beginnings

Journals  

2004‐2005(N=151 )

Journals 

2007‐2008(N=145 )

CTRI2009  Jan

(N=144)

CTRI2010Aug

(N=1002)

Verdict

Random 

Sequence 

Generation

38% 55% 83% 78%CTRI 

better

Concealment of 

allocation 16% 21% 76% 84%

CTRI 

better

Blinding 64% 46% 85% 88%CTRI 

better

Page 97: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Central Drugs Standard Control

Organization

Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government 

of India

http://cdsco.nic.in/

Page 98: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

E‐mail from Dr. Surinder

Singh; 

Drug Controller of India

“The registration of clinical trials is mandatory in most of the 

developed countries and  in India it was made Advisory in the 

Clinical Trial Permissions issued by office of DCG(I), 

However the clinical trial registry was made mandatory from 

15th

June, 2009 for all the applicants to whom the permission 

is  granted by office of DCG(I). 

It may be mentioned here that while the number of trials 

registered till Dec, 2008  was 137, the number of trials 

registered between Jan, 2009 to Nov, 2009 are 464, out of 

which around 373 trials are registered after 15th

June, 2009 

after it was made mandatory by the Office of DCG(I).”

Page 99: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

WHAT’S NEXTWhat about investigator initiated trials?

Page 100: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

WORKING WITH MEDICAL  JOURNAL EDITORS IN INDIA IN 

ENDORSING TRIALS REGISTRATION

Meeting with Medical Journal Editors (ICMR)

October 9 2007

Page 101: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Editorial policy on trials  registration

Page 102: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Page 103: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Get the Evidence Right

The Devil is in the Detail

Don’t

Just Do It; Do It Right

Page 104: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

“When you know something, to  hold that you know it, and when 

you do not know something, to  allow that you do not know it; 

that is knowledge.”

Confucius (551 BC ‐

479 BC)

Page 105: Study Design: The Blueprint for success Tharyan.pdf · Prathap Tharyan MD, MRCPsych. Professor of Psychiatry & Associate Director, CMC Vellore. Director, South Asian Cochrane Network

IASCT Clinical Trial Interfaces 2011; Mumbai

Join us: www.cochrane‐sacn.org