studies of columnar observations and model outputs brian mapes university of miami with thanks to...
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Studies of columnar observations Studies of columnar observations and model outputsand model outputs
Brian MapesBrian Mapes
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami
with thanks to many data producers and sharerswith thanks to many data producers and sharers
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Looking under the hood of monthly mean data “points”
• Time sections: f(submonthly time x pressure)
– a vast, rich domain– complementary to typical climate model
examination space (lat x lon x months)– Natural domain for observations– Sensible domain for physical processes
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Shortcomings• Free-running climate model time axis not directly
comparable to observations– statistical comparisons of course
• Models have climate-regime offsets in space, biasing comparisons at a fixed geo-location– non-mean statistics that is
• Submonthly variations (dynamics-driven) a poor proxy for climate sensitivity (thermo-driven)– tough luck, we do what we can
• Eulerian viewpoint a perverse view of weather– you’re free to leave
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inescapable programming tediumCOARE obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAMGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
Common data format,
variables,names,units,
flux sign conventions,
etc.
standard raw plots
standard stat plots
inescapable programming tedium
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Datasets COARE obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE(more: ARM? etc?)
KWAJEX 3D CRM
NCAR CAMGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(more: CAM-SP?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
All obs are from warm-wet tropics so far - what I have & know best
Cloud obs rare: satellite TOA rad in~GCM-grid areas, but cloud profiles at
only a few points (cloud radar)
the most GCM-comparable cloud dataset
Driving the whole exercise -- an AMIP, at the very least
weird experiments,not done real carefully so far.
Future?
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What variables?
COARE obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAMGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
TOA radiation and cloud forcing
cloud fraction and condensed water content (p)
humidity (p)
vertical motion (p)
physical tendenciesheating and drying (p)
rain
CLIMATEIMPACT SCALAR
SCALARLINK TO HYD CYC
structure structure within within tropo-tropo-spheresphere
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What plots?COARE IFA obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAMGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
CRF: LW+, SW-, net ~0 [obs needclear-sky assumptions]
rain
RHcld frac [ crude f(RH) here ]
Q1, CWC (no obs)
wind divergence and vertical grid
0
100
%
note: net <0 at rainiest times
IFA OBS
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What stats?COARE IFA obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAMGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
Lag regressions I: scalars vs. reference variable (here, ref = qbudget-derived IFA rain)
reflected SW
reduced OLR
net
(here, other obs. estimates models, other rain types)
TOA rad up:
Other rain vars:
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What stats?COARE IFA obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAMGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
regressions vs. IFA rainfall
~1 mm/h x 1d ~24 mm rain
net
longwave atm heating longwave atm heating ~ 15% of latent heating~ 15% of latent heating
ocean shading*ocean shading* ~ -20% of latent heat in rain~ -20% of latent heat in rain
* straight regression incl. nocturnal zeroes - not really right approach ~6am diurnal rain peak
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What stats?COARE obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAMGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
II. lag-height regressions of profile fields vs. surface rain
~1/2 day timescale at a point
44 km radius“MCS-resolving”
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What stats?COARE IFA obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAMGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
regressions vs. surface rainfallSYNOPTIC SCALE (IFA)
multiscale (incl. several-day timescales)
but no cloud profile observations
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What should areal cloud
statistics look like?
KWAJEX 3D CRMthanks Marat
TOA: obs TOA: obs-forced CRM
4-8 units, vertical
up to 16, vertical
condensatecan’t blow
away
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What stats?COARE IFA obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAM - IFAGFDL AM2 - IFANASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
regressions vs. surface rainfall - AM2
layers
upward development
time jitters sometimes
TOA about balanced, long
time scales
zigzag layers
july - 10 mm/d
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What stats?COARE IFA obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAM - IFAGFDL AM2 - IFANASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
AM2 - a different month
slow upward development
TOA closely balanced, long
time scale
zigzag layers
nov - 11 mm/d
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What stats?COARE IFA obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAM - IFAGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
regressions vs. surface rainfall - CAM
3-day waves
vertical thanks to ‘convective’ fraction but…
CRF not well linked to rain
events
…condensed water not
coherent in vertical
jan - 7 mm/d
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What stats?COARE IFA obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAM - IFAGFDL AM2 - IFAGMAO 140E/8N July(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
regressions vs. surface rainfall - GMAO
upward development, zigzag layers
a bit stark but about like IFA
2xKwajCRM ice content
freezing level schism
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rain event met fields - obs
<-KWX
IFA->
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rain event met fields - CAM-IFA
<-Jan
Dec->
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rain event met fields - 3 models
CAM AM2GMAO
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But are these brief rain-event fluctuations a Climate Process?
• hypothesisDivergence profile in tropical rain events
linked to profile of divergent winds
linked to profile of total winds?
( -> coupling issues…climate by any standard)
? Let’s look
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CAMGMAO
Top- stats of div regression sections (lag-height) Bottom- stats of total wind speed (time-height)
each curve shows 1 month of data
AM2IFAmean
stdev w/in 6-day lag section
mean
stdev
All 3 GCMs have unrealistic surface-intensified div fluctuations
but no near- surface enhancement of wind fluctuations
KWAJEX is 3rd line; LBA 4
CAM-jangly wind profiles
1000 vs 850 not right
GMAO-midlevel swoop
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wind profile results
• hypothesis too simplistic
• BUT– Systematic windspeed profile differences from
observations are clear at low levels!
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Regressions wrt TOA CRF “events”?
• Weird idea: submonthly TOA CRF has ~no feedback to the weather that causes it, so there’s less expectation of a repeatable “life cycle”
• Proxy for climate sensitivities? – ? Maybe, if tau << {days, years, decades, etc.} ?
• Anyway, try it (but I have no obs yet)– use 24h smoothing to kill diurnal cycle
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24h-smoothed TOA -CRF as base time series -- CAM 85W 20S
CRF<0, big slow changesSWup>0
Whiter w/clouds at 975 not 925
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Another month at 85W 20S -- CAM
Complicated mixture of events
SWup>0CRF<0
faster changes, polymodal pdf?
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AM2 - 85W 20S whiteness varies little; regression structure not stable
steady -30ish CRF
(Q1 data missing) PBL-based clouds rise to ~550mb here !?Minghua’s AM2 “midlevel” cloud (ISCCP)
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Cross-forced SCMs (CAM <-> AM2)
• V. advection of SCM fields by prescribed vertical velocity from other GCM
• H. advection prescribed (non-interactive)
• Look at LBA (Amazon) just for fun
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LBA obs (via Minghua’s shop), & GCMs
AM2CAMLBA obs
(warning: clear sky not careful)
(sorry: Q1 missing)
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AM2CAMLBA obs
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LBA models
AM2 CAMSCAM driven by AM2omega
Cloud style CAMlike
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LBA models
AM2 CAMSCAM2 driven by CAMomega
Cloud style AM2 ish
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Future plans - team efforts?COARE obsKWAJEX obsLBA obsEPIC, JASMINE
KWAJEX CRM
NCAR CAMGFDL AM2NASA GMAO(super-CAM soon?)
cross-forced SCMs•SCAM2 driven by CAM•SCAM driven by AM2
Common data format,
variables,names,units, sign
conventions
standard raw plots
standard stat plots
clickable from Bony index plot
co-ra.com/~bem
more to come
MORE DATAin (p,t) space
SCMs! CRMs!EXPERIMENTS!
OBS! other people