student loan abs sector moderated by: linda stesney, managing director moderated by: linda stesney,...
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Student Loan ABS Sector
Moderated by:
Linda Stesney,Managing Director
Moderated by:
Linda Stesney,Managing Director
American Securitization Forum
January 30, 2006
2
Our Panelists
Sharon Asch—Director ABN AMRO Inc.
John Hupalo—Executive Vice President Group Head, First Marblehead Corp.
Leo Subler—Managing Director—Sallie Mae
Amy Vespasiano, Director—Lloyds TSB Bank
Linda Stesney—Managing Director, Moody’s Investors Service
3
Our Goals
Summarize 2005 Issuance and 2006 Outlook
Review Impact of Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 on Student Loan ABS
Perspective on Private SLABS
Credit and Cash Flow Analysis on Private SLABS
4
2005 Highlights
Record Issuance--$73.3 Billion
FFELP Consolidation Loans Dominated--$38 Billion
Private Loan Securitized Volume--$9.4 Billion
Deficit Reduction Act of 2005
5
Student Loan ABS Issuance
-10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
$ in
mill
ion
s
For-Profit Non-Profit/State Agency Total Volume
6
2005 Private Loan Volumes
Private Loan Origination Volume by Academic Year($ in Billions)
$0
$5
$10
$15
1995-96 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Source: CollegeBoard
7
Consolidation Loan Volume
Consollidation Loan Volume
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
$ in
mill
ions
Direct FFELP Total
8
Deficit Reduction Act of 2005—Key Proposals
Reduce government guarantee
– (from 98% to 97%; from 100% for Exceptional
Performers to 99%)
Stafford and Plus Loans go fixed rate (6.8% and 8.5%, respectively)—SAP continues to float
“Floor Income” rebated back to government
– =excess of borrower rate over quarterly SAP
9
Deficit Reduction Act of 2005—Key Proposals (cont’d)
Eliminates in-school consolidation and virtually eliminates two-step consolidations
PLUS loans available to grad and professional students
Loan limits increased on Staffords
Recycling of 9.5% loans virtually eliminated
10
Know Your Audience
Q1: Which category best describes you role in student loan ABS?
– Investor
– Intermediary
– Issuer
– Other
11
Know Your Audience (cont’d)
Q2 Describe your exposure to student loans—
– I am considering investing in student loans and want
to learn more about the product
– I already invest in student loans but want to deepen
my understanding of:
• A. FFELP Loans
• B. Private Loans
--Student loans make up a significant portion of my
portfolio
12
Q3 Audience Follow-Up
In 2006 do you expect to allocate more investment dollars to Student Loan ABS?
– I will increase holdings in FFELP ASB
– I will increase holdings in private loan ABS
– I expect to decrease holdings in FFELP ABS
– I expect to decrease holdings in private loan ABS
– I expect to maintain the same allocation