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1 Manitoba’s Rural Demography Structure and Trends An Update Webinar prepared for the Rural Development Institute Brandon University November 4, 2014 Ray D. Bollman [email protected] Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan

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Page 1: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Structure and Trends

An Update

Webinar prepared for the

Rural Development Institute

Brandon University

November 4, 2014

Ray D. Bollman [email protected]

Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University

Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan

Page 2: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

• The sources of population change are:

– Natural balance = births minus deaths

– Internal migration (voting with your feed regarding where to live)

– Immigration – some communities are attracting immigrants

• Youth migration: How many leave? How many return?

• 17% of Manitoba’s population reports an Aboriginal Identity

• From a short-distance society to an industrial society to an open society.

[email protected] 2

Page 3: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

On the topic of youth outmigration, the flyer mentioned I grew up in

Moline. Here is the Moline School, sometime in the 1950s. I spent 8 years

in the south room and by the time I was eligible to graduate to the north

room, the school bus came and took me to town for high school.

Page 4: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

[email protected] 4

Page 5: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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0

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1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

Potential entrants to the labour force (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age)

Potential labour market shortage from 2013/15 to 2021/27due to less than 100 labour market entrants

per 100 labour market retirees, Manitoba

Historical data

L: Low growth

Medium1 1981-2008 trends

Medium2 2006-2008 trends

Medium3 1988-1996 trends

Medium4 2001-2006 trends

High growth

A1 replacementfertility

A2 zeroimmigration

A3 1%immigration

Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates and Projections, CANSIM Tables 051-0001 and 052-0005.

Page 6: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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0

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Metro

Non-metro

* Reclassification is not an issue in this time series. These data have been tabulated within the 2006 boundaries of metro and non-metro.Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0046.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of number of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Demographic replacement of working age populationis still above 100%, non-metro Manitoba

Page 7: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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Metro Non-metro

Newfoundland and Labrador 79 63

Prince Edward Island n.a. 88

Nova Scotia 80 72

New Brunswick 83 70

Quebec 85 70

Ontario 101 81

Manitoba 100 122

Saskatchewan 107 105

Alberta 100 111

British Columbia 86 73

Canada 94 81

Number of potential labour market entrants

(10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of

number of potential labour market retirees

(55 to 64 years of age)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics.

CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0046.

Page 8: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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CD #1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) 50

CD #18 (incl. Gimli) 77

CD #15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) 79

CD #5 (incl. Killarney) 80

CD #17 (incl.Dauphin) 89

CD #13 (incl. Selkirk) 90

CD #20 (incl. Swan River) 90

CD #12 (incl. Beausejour) 95

CD #14 (incl. Stonewall) 96

CD #11 (Winnipeg) 99

CD #16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) 100

CD #7 (incl. Brandon) 100

CD #9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) 102

Manitoba 109

CD #4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) 109

CD #6 (incl. Virden) 113

CD #21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) 130

CD #10 (incl. St. François Xavier) 142

CD #8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) 144

CD #3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) 160

CD #2 (incl. Steinbach) 168

CD #19 (incl. Berens River) 276

CD #23 (incl. Churchill) 278

CD #22 (incl. Thompson) 286

Demographic labour market pressure index: Number of potential

entrants to the labour force (population 10-19 years) as a percent of the potential

exiters from the labour force (population 55-64 years), Manitoba, 2012

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

10 CDs

Page 9: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 10: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #18 (incl. Gimli)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 11: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 12: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #5 (incl. Killarney)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 13: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #17 (incl.Dauphin)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 14: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #13 (incl. Selkirk)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 15: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #20 (incl. Swan River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 16: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #12 (incl. Beausejour)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 17: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #14 (incl. Stonewall)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 18: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #11 (Winnipeg)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 19: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #16 (incl. Roblin & Russell)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 20: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #7 (incl. Brandon)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 21: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #9 (incl. Portage la Prairie)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 22: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 23: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #6 (incl. Virden)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 24: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 25: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #10 (incl. St. François Xavier)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 26: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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300

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 27: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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300

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 28: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #2 (incl. Steinbach)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 29: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #19 (incl. Berens River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 30: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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350

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500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #23 (incl. Churchill)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 31: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CD #22 (incl. Thompson)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)

as a percent of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)

Page 32: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

[email protected] 33

Page 33: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Non-metro as a percent of Manitoba's total population

* Reclassification is not an issue in this time series. These data have been tabulated within the 2006 boundaries of metro and non-metro.Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0046.

Non-metro represented40% of Manitoba's population in 2012

Page 34: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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0 20 40 60 80 100

Ontario

CANADA

Quebec

British Columbia

Alberta

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Nova Scotia

Newfoundland & Labrador

New Brunswick

Yukon

Northwest Territories

Nunavut

Prince Edward Island

Percent of the population residing in non-metro1 areas, 2011

1. Non-metro refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (i.e. areas with a core population of 50,000 or more and a total population of 100,000 or more, including all neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the employed residents commute to the CMA.

Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 2011.

In 2011, 40% of Manitoba's population resided in non-metropolitan areas

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0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST areas Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ No MIZ

Population

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Note: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns and

municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built -up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce that

commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; No metropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).

Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 2011.

Larger urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areas

In 2011, Manitoba's rural and small town populationwas 386 thousand

Page 36: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

[email protected] 37

Page 37: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

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-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1996

to1997

1997

to1998

1998

to1999

1999

to2000

2000

to2001

2001

to2002

2002

to2003

2003

to2004

2004

to2005

2005

to2006

2006

to2007

2007

to2008

2008

to2009

2009

to2010

2010

to2011

2011

to2012

Metro Non-metro

* Reclassification is not an issue in this time series. These data have been tabulated within the 2006 boundaries of metro and non-metro.Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0046.

Year-to-year percent change in total population

Manitoba's non-metro population has grown continuously since 1996

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MetroNon-

metroNon-metro recent trends

Newfoundland and Labrador 1.5 -1.0 Decline since 1996

Prince Edward Island n.a. 0.3 Growth since 2006

Nova Scotia 1.0 -0.7 Decline since 1996

New Brunswick 1.0 -0.4 Decline since 1996

Quebec 1.1 0.7 Growth since 2002

Ontario 1.4 -0.1 No change since 2006

Manitoba 1.6 0.6 Growth since 1996

Saskatchewan 3.7 0.7 Growth since 2006

Alberta 3.0 1.7 Growth since 1996

British Columbia 1.3 0.3 Growth since 2004

Canada 1.5 0.4 Growth since 1996

Percent change in total population from 2011 to 2012

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-

0046.

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Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) -1.6

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) -1.5

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) -1.1

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) -1.1

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) -0.6

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) -0.3

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) 0.0

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) 0.1

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) 0.5

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) 0.5

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) 0.5

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) 0.6

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) 0.6

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) 0.7

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) 1.1

Manitoba 1.2

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) 1.4

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) 1.4

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) 1.5

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) 1.7

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) 1.8

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) 1.8

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) 2.4

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) 2.8

Percent change in total population from 2012 to 2013

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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21,000

21,500

22,000

22,500

23,000

23,500

24,000

24,500

25,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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21,000

21,500

22,000

22,500

23,000

23,500

24,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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23,000

23,500

24,000

24,500

25,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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21,500

22,000

22,500

23,000

23,500

24,000

24,500

25,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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20,500

21,000

21,500

22,000

22,500

23,000

23,500

24,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000

19,500

20,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

42,000

44,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

64,000

66,000

68,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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35,000

37,000

39,000

41,000

43,000

45,000

47,000

49,000

51,000

53,000

55,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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600,000

625,000

650,000

675,000

700,000

725,000

750,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total population

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Page 63: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 39-40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

• The sources of population change are:

– Natural balance = births minus deaths

[email protected] 65

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66

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) -0.25

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) -0.18

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) -0.17

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) -0.16

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) -0.05

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) -0.05

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) 0.01

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) 0.27

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) 0.28

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) 0.31

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) 0.34

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) 0.35

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) 0.37

Manitoba 0.44

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) 0.46

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) 0.60

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) 0.60

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) 0.79

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) 0.88

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) 0.97

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) 1.04

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) 1.95

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) 1.99

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) 2.30

Natural Balance (births minus deaths) in 2012

as a percent1 of total population

1. The exact calculation was births minus deaths in the period from July 1, 2012 to

June 30, 2013 as a percent of the population on July 1, 2012.

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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[email protected] 87

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

as a percent of the total population

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Page 88: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 30% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

• The sources of population change are:

– Natural balance = births minus deaths

– Internal migration (voting with your feed regarding where to live)

[email protected] 91

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92

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) -1.7

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) -1.6

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) -1.4

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) -1.4

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) -1.3

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) -1.0

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) -1.0

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) -0.8

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) -0.8

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) -0.5

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) -0.4

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) -0.4

Manitoba -0.3

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) -0.2

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) -0.1

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) 0.0

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) 0.1

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) 0.3

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) 0.3

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) 0.6

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) 0.8

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) 1.1

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) 1.3

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) 1.4

Net internal migration1 in 2012 as a percent

2 of total population

1. Net internal migration is the number of individuals who moved into the census division (from any other census division in Canada)

minus the number of individuals who moved out of the census division (to any other census division in Canada)

2. The exact calculation was net internal migration from July 1, 2012 to June 30, 2013 as a percent of the population on July 1, 2012.

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

14 CDs

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[email protected] 93

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 94

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 95

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 96

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 97

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 98

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 99

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 101

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 102

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 103

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 104

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 105

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 106

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 107

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 108

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 109

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 110

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 111

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 112

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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[email protected] 113

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Net migration into this census division

from another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population

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Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 39-40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

• The sources of population change are:

– Natural balance = births minus deaths

– Internal migration (voting with your feed regarding where to live)

– Immigration – some communities are attracting immigrants

[email protected] 116

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[email protected] 117

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1996

to

1997

1997

to

1998

1998

to

1999

1999

to

2000

2000

to

2001

2001

to

2002

2002

to

2003

2003

to

2004

2004

to

2005

2005

to

2006

2006

to

2007

2007

to

2008

2008

to

2009

2009

to

2010

2010

to

2011

2011

to

2012

2012

to

2013

Immigrant arrivals per 100 inhabitants

Outside Winnipeg in 2012 to 2013,

0.31% of the population were immigrants who had arrived in the previous year

CD. No. 11 (Winnipeg) All other CDs

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0053.

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121

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) 1.6

Manitoba 1.0

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) 0.9

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) 0.7

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) 0.5

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) 0.5

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) 0.4

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) 0.3

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) 0.2

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) 0.2

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) 0.1

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) 0.1

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) 0.1

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) 0.1

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) 0.1

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) 0.1

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) 0.1

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) 0.1

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) 0.0

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) 0.0

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) 0.0

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) 0.0

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) 0.0

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) 0.0

Number of immigrant arrivals per 100 residents,

July 1, 2012 to June 30, 2013

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table

051-0052.

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[email protected] 122

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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[email protected] 124

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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[email protected] 125

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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[email protected] 137

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

Page 131: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 138

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

Page 132: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 139

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

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[email protected] 140

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

Page 134: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 141

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

Page 135: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 142

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

Page 136: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 143

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

Page 137: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 144

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of immigant arrivalsas percent of total population

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River)

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th.

Page 138: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

• The sources of population change are:

– Natural balance = births minus deaths

– Internal migration (voting with your feed regarding where to live)

– Immigration – some communities are attracting immigrants

– Summary

[email protected] 146

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147

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

Net internal

migration

Immigrant

arrivals

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) 1.5 pos neg POS

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) 2.8 POS POS pos

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) 1.8 pos POS pos

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) 1.4 .. POS pos

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) 0.7 POS .. pos

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) 0.6 pos pos ..

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) 2.4 POS .. ..

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) 1.8 POS neg POS

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) 1.7 pos POS pos

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) 1.4 POS POS pos

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) 1.1 pos neg POS

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) 0.6 POS NEG pos

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) 0.5 POS NEG ..

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) 0.5 neg pos pos

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) 0.5 POS neg pos

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) 0.1 POS NEG ..

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) 0.0 pos neg pos

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) -0.3 .. neg pos

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) -0.6 pos NEG pos

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) -1.1 neg NEG ..

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) -1.1 neg NEG pos

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) -1.5 .. NEG pos

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) -1.6 neg NEG ..

Manitoba 1.2 pos neg POS

Percent change in total population

from 2012 to 2013

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Metro census division

Partially-non-metro census division

Non-metro census division

Page 140: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

148

Natural Balance (births minus deaths)

Net internal

migration

Immigrant

arrivals

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) 1.5 pos neg POS

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) 2.8 POS POS pos

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) 1.8 pos POS pos

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) 1.4 .. POS pos

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) 0.7 POS .. pos

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) 0.6 pos pos ..

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) 2.4 POS .. ..

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) 1.8 POS neg POS

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) 1.7 pos POS pos

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) 1.4 POS POS pos

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) 1.1 pos neg POS

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) 0.6 POS NEG pos

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) 0.5 POS NEG ..

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) 0.5 neg pos pos

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) 0.5 POS neg pos

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) 0.1 POS NEG ..

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) 0.0 pos neg pos

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) -0.3 .. neg pos

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) -0.6 pos NEG pos

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) -1.1 neg NEG ..

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) -1.1 neg NEG pos

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) -1.5 .. NEG pos

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) -1.6 neg NEG ..

Manitoba 1.2 pos neg POS

Percent change in total population

from 2012 to 2013

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Metro census division

Partially-non-metro census division

Non-metro census division

Page 141: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

• The sources of population change are:

– Natural balance = births minus deaths

– Internal migration (voting with your feed regarding where to live)

– Immigration – some communities are attracting immigrants

• Youth migration: How many leave? How many return?

[email protected] 149

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150

Beginning

year

Ending

yearPeriod

Population

15-19 years

in beginning

year

Population

20-24

years in

ending year

Change

Percent

change

over 5

years

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,468 1,090 -378 -26

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 877 665 -212 -24

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,521 1,196 -325 -21

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,700 1,353 -347 -20

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,595 1,272 -323 -20

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,008 807 -201 -20

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,227 998 -229 -19

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,817 1,547 -270 -15

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,772 1,533 -239 -13

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 771 679 -92 -12

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,850 1,631 -219 -12

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 4,180 3,698 -482 -12

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 800 722 -78 -10

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 5,265 4,779 -486 -9

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,293 1,189 -104 -8

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 819 778 -41 -5

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,624 1,550 -74 -5

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 3,600 3,493 -107 -3

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 894 868 -26 -3

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 4,083 4,253 170 4

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 840 890 50 6

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 44,936 52,982 8,046 18

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 4,270 5,179 909 21

Change in population, 15-19 years of age in the beginning year

compared to the population 20-24 years of age, five years later

Name of census division

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052

Page 143: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

151

Beginning

year

Ending

yearPeriod

Population

20-24 years

in beginning

year

Population

25-29 years

in ending

year

Change

Percent

change

over 5

years

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 775 516 -259 -33

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 454 304 -150 -33

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,063 739 -324 -30

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 499 366 -133 -27

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,071 796 -275 -26

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,351 1,073 -278 -21

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,035 823 -212 -20

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,423 1,185 -238 -17

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,068 928 -140 -13

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 571 500 -71 -12

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 2,748 2,422 -326 -12

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 593 529 -64 -11

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 611 553 -58 -9

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,189 1,129 -60 -5

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 493 471 -22 -4

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 3,378 3,306 -72 -2

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 829 818 -11 -1

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 4,179 4,128 -51 -1

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 3,271 3,296 25 1

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 5,259 5,425 166 3

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 670 702 32 5

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,252 1,360 108 9

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 50,611 56,949 6,338 13

Change in population, 20-24 years of age in the beginning year

compared to the population 25-29 years of age, five years later

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052

Name of census division

Page 144: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

152

Beginning

year

Ending

yearPeriod

Population 25-

29 years in

beginning

year

Population

30-34 years

in ending

year

Change

Percent

change

over 5

years

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 936 801 -135 -14

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 601 516 -85 -14

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 4,581 3,992 -589 -13

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,308 1,193 -115 -9

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 2,996 2,896 -100 -3

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 932 921 -11 -1

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 398 394 -4 -1

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,249 1,248 -1 0

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 424 427 3 1

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 424 431 7 2

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 474 485 11 2

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 962 1,000 38 4

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 639 669 30 5

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 730 767 37 5

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,093 1,162 69 6

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 986 1,062 76 8

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 48,955 53,964 5,009 10

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 3,086 3,441 355 12

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 514 587 73 14

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 3,766 4,355 589 16

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 1,907 2,255 348 18

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 448 568 120 27

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) 2007 2012 2007 to 2012 884 1,123 239 27

Change in population, 25-29 years of age in the beginning year

compared to the population 30-39 years of age, five years later

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052

Name of census division

Page 145: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 153

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 20 (incl. Swan River)

Number t=1

Recall: 877 in 2007

Recall: 665 in 2012

Recall: -212 change

Page 146: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 154

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 20 (incl. Swan River)

Number t=1

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[email protected] 155

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 20 (incl. Swan River)

Number t=1

Page 148: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 156

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 20 (incl. Swan River)

Number t=1

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[email protected] 157

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 7 (incl. Brandon)

Number t=1

Page 150: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 158

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 7 (incl. Brandon)

Number t=1

Page 151: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

[email protected] 159

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 7 (incl. Brandon)

Number t=1

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[email protected] 160

-1,000

-750

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 17 (incl. Dauphin)

Number t=1

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-1,000

-750

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 17 (incl. Dauphin)

Number t=1

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[email protected] 162

-1,000

-750

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1996

to

2001

1997

to

2002

1998

to

2003

1999

to

2004

2000

to

2005

2001

to

2006

2002

to

2007

2003

to

2008

2004

to

2009

2005

to

2010

2006

to

2011

2007

to

2012

Stayerst=1 tot=5

Netmigrantst=1 tot=5

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.

Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),

Man CD 17 (incl. Dauphin)

Number t=1

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[email protected] 163

Pop. 15-19 yr (2007) Pop. 20-24 yr (2007) Pop. 25-29 yr (2007)

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) GAIN GAIN GAIN

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) loss loss GAIN

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) loss loss GAIN

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) loss LOSS GAIN

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) loss LOSS GAIN

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) LOSS loss gain

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) LOSS LOSS LOSS

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) gain gain GAIN

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) LOSS loss gain

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) LOSS LOSS GAIN

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) loss LOSS gain

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) GAIN gain LOSS

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) loss loss gain

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) LOSS LOSS loss

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) LOSS LOSS gain

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) LOSS LOSS gain

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) LOSS LOSS loss

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) LOSS LOSS LOSS

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) LOSS gain gain

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) LOSS LOSS loss

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) LOSS LOSS loss

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) LOSS loss loss

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) gain gain gain

Name of census division"Net" change in population from 2007 to 2012

Metro census division

Partially-non-metro census divisions

Non-metro census divisions

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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[email protected] 164

Pop. 15-19 yr (2007) Pop. 20-24 yr (2007) Pop. 25-29 yr (2007)

Man. Div. 11 (Winnipeg) GAIN GAIN GAIN

Man. Div. 2 (incl. Steinbach) loss loss GAIN

Man. Div. 10 (incl. St. Francois Xavier) loss loss GAIN

Man. Div. 12 (incl. Beausejour) loss LOSS GAIN

Man. Div. 13 (incl. Selkirk) loss LOSS GAIN

Man. Div. 14 (incl. Stonewall) LOSS loss gain

Man. Div. 1 (incl. Lac du Bonnet) LOSS LOSS LOSS

Man. Div. 3 (incl. Winkler, Morden, Altona) gain gain GAIN

Man. Div. 4 (incl. Pilot Mound & Somerset) LOSS loss gain

Man. Div. 5 (incl. Killarney) LOSS LOSS GAIN

Man. Div. 6 (incl. Virden) loss LOSS gain

Man. Div. 7 (incl. Brandon) GAIN gain LOSS

Man. Div. 8 (incl. Gladstone & Treherne) loss loss gain

Man. Div. 9 (incl. Portage la Prairie) LOSS LOSS loss

Man. Div. 15 (incl. Minnedosa & Neepawa) LOSS LOSS gain

Man. Div. 16 (incl. Roblin & Russell) LOSS LOSS gain

Man. Div. 17 (incl.Dauphin) LOSS LOSS loss

Man. Div. 18 (incl. Gimli) LOSS LOSS LOSS

Man. Div. 19 (incl. Berens River) LOSS gain gain

Man. Div. 20 (incl. Swan River) LOSS LOSS loss

Man. Div. 21 (incl. Flin Flon & The Pas) LOSS LOSS loss

Man. Div. 22 (incl. Thompson) LOSS loss loss

Man. Div. 23 (incl. Churchill) gain gain gain

Name of census division"Net" change in population from 2007 to 2012

Metro census division

Partially-non-metro census divisions

Non-metro census divisions

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

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Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

• The sources of population change are:

– Natural balance = births minus deaths

– Internal migration (voting with your feed regarding where to live)

– Immigration – some communities are attracting immigrants

• Youth migration: How many leave? How many return?

• 17% of Manitoba’s population reports an Aboriginal Identity

[email protected] 165

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[email protected] 166

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75+ years

Source: Statistics Canada. 2011 National Household Survey, Table no. 99-011-x2011026.ivt

Age group

In 2011, 29% of Manitoba's population under 5 years of age

had an Aboriginal Identity

Population with an Aboriginal Identity as a percent of the total population,

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[email protected] 167

NumberAs percent

of total

All age groups 1,174,345 195,895 17

0 to 4 years 76,070 22,425 29

5 to 9 years 73,295 20,370 28

10 to 14 years 78,035 19,935 26

15 to 19 years 84,935 20,875 25

20 to 24 years 80,560 15,990 20

25 to 34 years 150,615 25,760 17

35 to 44 years 150,245 24,005 16

45 to 54 years 177,030 22,890 13

55 to 64 years 146,055 13,980 10

65 to 74 years 86,450 6,975 8

75 years and over 71,060 2,700 4

Aboriginal Identity population as a percent

of the total population, Manitoba, 2011

Population with an

Aboriginal IdentityTotal

population

Source: Statistics Canada. 2011 National Household Survey, Table no. 99-

011-x2011026.ivt

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[email protected] 168

All areas of

residence

Residence:

On reserve

Residence:

Off reserve

All areas of

residence

Residence:

On reserve

Residence:

Off reserve

All areas of

residence

Residence:

On reserve

Residence:

Off reserve

All age groups 1,174,350 62,975 1,111,385 110,810 61,400 49,390 1,063,545 1,565 1,061,975

0 to 4 years 76,070 8,725 67,350 14,470 8,570 5,905 61,600 155 61,445

5 to 9 years 73,295 7,270 66,030 13,270 7,165 6,105 60,025 105 59,925

10 to 14 years 78,035 6,790 71,245 12,225 6,710 5,515 65,815 80 65,730

15 to 19 years 84,935 6,800 78,135 12,535 6,715 5,820 72,400 85 72,315

20 to 24 years 80,560 5,435 75,125 9,245 5,335 3,905 71,315 95 71,220

25 to 34 years 150,615 7,895 142,720 13,315 7,660 5,650 137,305 230 137,070

35 to 44 years 150,245 7,445 142,800 13,415 7,220 6,190 136,830 225 136,605

45 to 54 years 177,030 6,390 170,640 11,430 6,175 5,255 165,600 215 165,380

55 to 64 years 146,055 3,710 142,345 6,365 3,475 2,885 139,685 230 139,460

65 to 74 years 86,450 1,845 84,605 3,330 1,740 1,585 83,125 110 83,015

75 years and over 71,060 670 70,390 1,210 635 575 69,845 35 69,810

All age groups 100 5 95 9 5 4 91 0 90

0 to 4 years 100 11 89 19 11 8 81 0 81

5 to 9 years 100 10 90 18 10 8 82 0 82

10 to 14 years 100 9 91 16 9 7 84 0 84

15 to 19 years 100 8 92 15 8 7 85 0 85

20 to 24 years 100 7 93 11 7 5 89 0 88

25 to 34 years 100 5 95 9 5 4 91 0 91

35 to 44 years 100 5 95 9 5 4 91 0 91

45 to 54 years 100 4 96 6 3 3 94 0 93

55 to 64 years 100 3 97 4 2 2 96 0 95

65 to 74 years 100 2 98 4 2 2 96 0 96

75 years and over 100 1 99 2 1 1 98 0 98

Percent distribution of individuals with an Aboriginal Identity

Source: Statistics Canada. 2011 National Household Survey, Table no. 99-011-x2011026.ivt

Total population with an Aboriginal

Identity Registered or Treaty Indian

Person with Aboriginal Identity: Not a

Registered or Treaty Indian

Population with Aboriginal Identity, Manitoba, 2011

Number of individuals with an Aboriginal Identity

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[email protected] 169

Page 162: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

• The sources of population change are:

– Natural balance = births minus deaths

– Internal migration (voting with your feed regarding where to live)

– Immigration – some communities are attracting immigrants

• Youth migration: How many leave? How many return?

• 17% of Manitoba’s population reports an Aboriginal Identity

• From a short-distance society to an industrial society to an arena

society.

[email protected] 170

Page 163: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

171

Source: Persson, Lars Olaf, Erik Westholm and Tony Fuller. (1997) “Two Contexts, One Outcome: The

Importance of Lifestyle Choice in Creating Rural Jobs in Canada and Sweden,” Chapter 10 in Ray D. Bollman and

John M. Bryden (ed.) Rural Employment: An International Perspective (Brandon: Brandon University for the

Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation and Wallingford, U.K.: CAB International). Pp. 136 – 163.

Recall the “short-distance” society:

• all activity focussed on the community;

• high overlap of community systems

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172

Source: Persson, Lars Olaf, Erik Westholm and Tony Fuller. (1997) “Two Contexts, One Outcome: The Importance of Lifestyle Choice in Creating

Rural Jobs in Canada and Sweden,” Chapter 10 in Ray D. Bollman and John M. Bryden (ed.) Rural Employment: An International Perspective

(Brandon: Brandon University for the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation and Wallingford, U.K.: CAB International). Pp. 136 – 163.

Then, the industrial society:

• with hierarchical links between places because bigger places (e.g.

regional service centres) took on more functions; and

• greater separation of community functions.

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173

Source: Persson, Lars Olaf, Erik Westholm and Tony Fuller. (1997) “Two Contexts, One Outcome: The Importance of Lifestyle Choice in

Creating Rural Jobs in Canada and Sweden,” Chapter 10 in Ray D. Bollman and John M. Bryden (ed.) Rural Employment: An

International Perspective (Brandon: Brandon University for the Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation and Wallingford, U.K.: CAB

International). Pp. 136 – 163.

Today, the open society:

• high personal mobility with different destinations for travel to work,

education and pleasure;

• community systems overlap very little (become ‘non-coherent’).

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[email protected] 174

• We have moved from a community-centric society to an “open”

society where we all drive different directions for work, for

education, for recreation and for entertainment.

• What are the implications of functional economic areas being

larger than the “community”?

Some implications, to me,

• Less focus on community “economic” development (because of spillovers

with neighbouring communities); and

• More focus on regional “economic” development • to quote “Red Green” – “We are all in this together, I’m pullin’ for yer.”

• Thus, a move from “rural community” development to “rural regional”

development. • See, in particular, Partridge, Mark D. and M. Rose Olfert. (2011) “The Winners’ Choice: Sustainable Economic Strategies for Successful 21st-Century Regions.” Applied

Economic Perspectives and Policy Vol. 33, No. 2 (Summer), pp. 143-178.

• Importantly, “rural regional” development differs from “metro regional”

development, by definition of “rural”. • See Reimer, Bill and Ray D. Bollman. (2010) “Understanding Rural Canada: Implications for Rural Development Policy and Rural Planning Policy.” Chapter 1 in David

J.A. Douglas (ed.) Rural Planning and Development in Canada. (Toronto: Nelson Education Ltd.)

• For various delineations of functional economic regions in Manitoba, see • Stabler, Jack and Richard C. Rounds. (1997) “Commuting and Rural Employment on the Canadian Prairies.” Chapter 13 in Ray D. Bollman and John M Bryden (ed.)

International Perspectives on Rural Employment (Wallingford: CAB International and Brandon: Brandon University for the Canadian Rural Restructuring Foundation),

pp. 193 – 204.

• Munro, Anne, Alessandro Alasia and Ray D. Bollman. (2011) “Self-contained labour areas: A proposed delineation and classification by degree of rurality.” Rural and

Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 8, No. 8 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE) (www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-

X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng).

• Ashton, Bill, Ray D. Bollman and Wayne Kelly. (2013) Identifying and explaining self-contained labour areas in rural Manitoba. Paper prepared for Provincial-

Municipal Support Services, Manitoba Department of Local Government, April 25. (http://www.gov.mb.ca/ia/muniamalg/pdf/rdi_identifying.pdf#page=3)

Page 167: Structure and Trends An Update - Brandon University · Manitoba’s Rural Demography Outline • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Outline

• Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer

potential labour market entrants than potential retirees

• Non-metro has had 40% of Manitoba’s population since 1996

• Non-metro Manitoba is growing.

• The sources of population change are:

– Natural balance = births minus deaths

– Internal migration (voting with your feed regarding where to live)

– Immigration – some communities are attracting immigrants

• Youth migration: How many leave? How many return?

• 17% of Manitoba’s population reports an Aboriginal Identity

• From a short-distance society to an industrial society to an open society.

[email protected] 175

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176

Manitoba’s Rural Demography

Structure and Trends

An Update

Webinar prepared for the

Rural Development Institute

Brandon University

November 4, 2014

Ray D. Bollman [email protected]

Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University

Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan

Questions /

Discussion