Structural Change for

Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development

Geneva, 5 November 2018

Frank Van Rompaey

2

3

Structural change and manufacturing

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Structural change and manufacturing… country-average shares

Structural change and manufacturing… Share of aggregate MVA in the total GDP of developing countries (at 2005 constant price)

Share of aggregate manufacturing employment in the total employment o developing countries

Source: Haraguchi, et al (2017)

6

Structural change within manufacturing…

Source: UNIDO’s elaboration based on CIC 2009; UNIDO Database (2012a).

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Structural change within manufacturing……increasing sophistication and diversification

VA p

er c

apita

(US$

)

1,097 2,981 8,103 22,026Real GDP per capita (US$)

Food and beverages TextilesWearing apparel ChemicalsBasic metals Fabricated metalsElectrical machinery and apparatus Motor vehicles

Textiles

Wearing apparel

Food and beverage

Chemical

Electrical machinery and apparatus

Fabricated metals

Basic metals

Motor vehicles

Structural change within manufacturing-development patterns

9

Food and beverages Textiles Wearing apparel

Man

ufac

turin

g va

lue

adde

d pe

r cap

ita (2

005

$)

Source: UNIDO elaboration based on UNIDO INDSTAT 2

Wearing apparel

Textiles

Basic metals

Fabricated metals

Rubber and plastics

Motor vehicles

Chemical

Electrical machinery and apparatus Machinery and

equipment

Source: UNIDO elaboration based on UNIDO INDSTAT 2

Food and beverage

Textiles

Chemical

Electrical machinery and apparatus

Motor vehicles

Fabricated metals

Basic metals

Wearing apparel

Rubber and plastics

Machinery and equipment

Inclusive Industrial Development-manuf. employment

Source: Estimated based on UNIDO INDSTAT2

12

Sustainable Industrial Development…CO2 emissions Material Use

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

Highincome

Upper-middleincome

Lower-mediumincome

Lowincome

Gro

wth

(per

cent

)

Total growth Growth due to scale effectGrowth due to composition effect Growth due to intensity effect

-50

-20

10

40

70

100

130

160

Highincome

Upper-middleincome

Lower-mediumincome

Lowincome

Source: Mazzanti and Nicolli (2017) based on the Eora Multi-Region Input-Output database

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Industrial policy: UNIDO’s position

Process-oriented, multi-stakeholder-driven, flexible

Strategic approach

No ‘one-size-fits-all’

Supporting and challenging

Ensuring impact

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Towards a strategic approach

15

16

Manufacturing employment and manufacturing-related service employment

Germany: textiles and wearing apparel Germany: motor vehicle industry

Source: UNIDO elaboration based on World Input Output Database 2015

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ISIC full descriptionAbbreviation used in

this reportISIC code Revision 3 Technology group

Food and beverages Food and beverages 15 Low techTobacco products Tobacco 16 Low techTextiles Textiles 17 Low techWearing apparel, and fur & leather products, and footwear

Wearing apparel 18 & 19 Low tech

Wood products (excluding furniture) Wood products 20 Low techPaper and paper products Paper 21 Low techPrinting and publishing Printing and publishing 22 Low techFurniture; manufacturing n.e.c. Furniture, n.e.c. 36 Low techCoke, refined petroleum products, and nuclear fuel

Coke and refined petroleum 23 Low/medium tech

Rubber and plastic products Rubber and plastic 25 Low/medium techNon-metallic mineral products Non-metallic minerals 26 Low/medium techBasic metals Basic metals 27 Low/medium techFabricated metal products Fabricated metals 28 Low/medium techChemicals and chemical products Chemicals 24 Medium/high tech

Machinery and equipment n.e.c. & office, accounting, computing machinery

Machinery and equipment 29 & 30 Medium/high tech

Electrical machinery and apparatus & radio, television, and communication equipment

Electrical machinery and apparatus 31 & 32 Medium/high tech

Medical, precision and optical instruments

Precision instruments 33 Medium/high tech

Motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers & other transport equipment

Motor vehicles 34 & 35 Medium/high tech

CLASSIFICATION OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES BY TECHNOLOGY GROUP

n.e.c = not elsewhere classified.Note: Shades rows represents the manufacturing industries analysed ISIC=International Standard of Industry ClassificationSource: UNIDO’s elaboration based on UNIDO Database (UNIDO 2012a).