strategies in the 2008 presidential campaign christopher arterton dean of the gspm

805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu

The Graduate School of Political Management

POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE

Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign

Christopher ArtertonDean of the GSPM




Definition of Strategy in Electoral Politics

A road map defining an objective* and

specifying the means* to achieve it

* Precision and concreteness matter!




Elements of Strategy in Electoral Politics

1. Goals – coalition of voters to support candidacy

2. Available Resources – money, staff, volunteers

3. Deployment of Scarce Resources

4. Messages




Messaging in Electoral Politics

POLICIES: Proposals advanced by candidate

IMAGES: Unique qualities of candidate

NARRATIVE: Unique history of candidate

FRAME: Question to be decided by election




McCain’s General Election Strategy (A)

Goals:

• Unify party particularly social conservatives • Reach toward undecided voters in middle• Attract women disaffected by treatment of

Clinton• Focus on “Bush states” from 2000 and 2004




McCain’s General Election Strategy (B)

Resources:

• Federal Public Funding: $84 million • RNC Party Funds: $150 Million (?)• Party committees in “Red States”• Choice of Vice-Presidential Running

Mate• Highly Centralized Campaign Structure




McCain’s General Election Strategy (C)

Messaging:

• “Mavericks” will reform Washington • National Security Expertise: “Country First”• Obama: Cultural “Celebrity” (Not Leader)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ocngIAeXjQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id1IKJGVkvg

4. Obama: Untested and Inexperienced5. Obama: “Tax-and-Spend Liberal” 6. Obama: “Un-American”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w




Obama’s General Election Strategy (A)

Goals:

• Unify party particularly Clinton supporters • Reach toward undecided voters (“Change

Election”)• Mobilize Young Voters (18 to 30)• Increase African-American & Hispanic turnout• 35 states = multiple paths to Electoral College

victory




Obama’s General Election Strategy (B)

Resources:

• Ability to raise money ($151 Million in September)

• Three million plus on mybarackobama.com• Organization built during primary campaign• Wholly owned campaign organization • Cohesive structure of “insurgent” campaign• 80% of public believing nation on “wrong track”




Obama’s General Election Strategy (C)

Messaging:

• “Change we can believe in” • “Yes we can!” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTji3oiUKnA

• Middle-class tax cut http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BDyz4J-QA

• Jobs, healthcare, environment, energy independence

• McCain = Bush http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PluoMotgl2w




Competing Frames: McCain

This election is about

► effective, experienced leadership; a genuine hero

► a choice for “mavericks” that can and will change

Washington (except in matters of national security)

► choosing a team that will put “Country First”

► times are too critical to elect Obama

an untested, unknown leader

with liberal policies, and

ties to radical elements




Competing Frames: Obama

This election is about

► Change … change we can believe in

► Uniting Americans in a quest: “we are all one people”

► “This is our time” (for greatness): generational shift

► Republican policies have produced the economic crisis

► McCain equals third term for Bush

► Choosing a candidate that embodies change & progress

low key persona and moderate policies

bi-partisan approaches to public policy

the first African-American president




Electoral College Results 2004 and 2008

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/




BATTLEGROUND 2008 Tracking Poll

October 23, October 26 - October 29, 2008

N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.




40%39%39%39%40%40%40%41% 41%42%41%

42%43%43%42%43%43%

42%41% 41%45%

47%48%48%47%47%45%46%45%

43%43% 45%45%44%45%45%45%44%

43%44%44%41%

11%12%12%13%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%13%12%12%11%12%14%13%14%14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 45% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40%

Obama 41% 44% 44% 43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47%

Barr 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Nader 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Unsure 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%

Week 1

Week 2

9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15

UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)




25%

44%40%

16%

9% 9% 9%11% 11%

8%

24%24%22%26%25%

20%

31%

22%

41%44% 45%

43%41%

35%35%

25%20%22% 22%

19%21%17%

28%24%

18%

7%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Very Satisfied 22% 20% 31% 25% 26% 22% 24% 24% 25%

Somewhat Satisfied 35% 35% 41% 43% 44% 45% 41% 44% 40%

Somewhat Dissatisfied 24% 28% 17% 21% 19% 22% 22% 20% 25%

Very Dissatisfied 18% 16% 7% 9% 9% 9% 11% 11% 8%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for president this year -- are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?




Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL BRING CHANGE TO WASHINGTON

28%28%28%28%

32%

29%

34%

59%58% 57%61%

57%55%52%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

McCain 34% 32% 29% 28% 28% 28% 28%

Obama 52% 55% 57% 61% 58% 57% 59%

9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?IS A STRONG LEADER

46%45%

43%

46%46%

50%52%

51%48%

44%43%

46%

41%43%

41%

37%37%

43%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 48% 52% 51% 50% 46% 46% 43% 45% 46%

Obama 43% 37% 37% 41% 41% 43% 46% 43% 44%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL CREATE JOBS*

51% 51%

37%36%

33%32%34%

38%39% 39%

33%

53%52%

55%

49%47%

48%

54%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 33% 39% 39% 38% 34% 32% 33% 36% 37%

Obama 54% 48% 47% 49% 52% 55% 53% 51% 51%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?KEEPING AMERICA SAFE AND SECURE

55%56%

52%

57%55% 55%57%

37%39%37%35%37%36%33%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 57% 55% 55% 57% 52% 56% 55%

Obama 33% 36% 37% 35% 39% 37% 37%

9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUS

45%

48%

40%39%

37%36%38%

41%

43% 43%

41%

47%46%

49%

45%44%43%

47%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 41% 43% 43% 41% 38% 36% 37% 39% 40%

Obama 47% 43% 44% 45% 46% 49% 47% 45% 48%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL UNITE THE COUNTRY

32%

52% 53%

33%32%33%34%

37%36%

39%

33%

52%52% 53%

49%47%

50%

53%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 33% 36% 39% 37% 34% 33% 32% 33% 32%

Obama 53% 50% 47% 49% 52% 53% 52% 52% 53%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?FIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME

38%

53% 52%

38%

35%35%37%

39%39%42%

33%

53%52% 53%51%

48%48%

53%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 33% 39% 42% 39% 37% 35% 35% 38% 38%

Obama 53% 48% 48% 51% 52% 53% 53% 53% 52%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?SHARES YOUR VALUES

44%43%

40%42%

43%45%

46%

45%

43%

47%47%

50%

47%

50%

46%46%

43%

46%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 43% 46% 45% 45% 43% 42% 40% 43% 44%

Obama 46% 43% 46% 46% 47% 50% 50% 47% 47%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American?

7% 7% 6% 6%

20%21%22%21%19%20%

18%18%

30%27%27%

30%

31%

27%

32%

27%

32%34%

29%

32%32%35%

31%

37%

6% 5%6%7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Extremely comfortable 18% 20% 18% 19% 21% 22% 21% 20%

Very Comfortable 27% 32% 27% 31% 27% 30% 27% 30%

Somewhat Comfortable 37% 31% 35% 32% 32% 29% 34% 32%

Not at all Comfortable 7% 6% 6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 6%

8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old?

16%

24%21%

23%

9%9%8%9%7%

9% 10%11%

16%14%

18%16%17%18%

19%

43%43%39%

42%40%40%39%40%

24%21%25%25%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Extremely comfortable 11% 9% 10% 7% 9% 8% 9% 9%

Very Comfortable 19% 18% 17% 16% 14% 18% 16% 16%

Somewhat Comfortable 40% 39% 40% 40% 42% 39% 43% 43%

Not at all Comfortable 27% 25% 21% 25% 24% 24% 21% 23%

8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate – John McCain, or Barack Obama -- do you think is running a more negative campaign?

13%9% 7% 8% 8% 7%

19% 21% 19%

57%52%

56%53%

47%42% 44%

50%

15%14% 14%13%12%12%

10%

4%4%4%6%4%5%9%9%8%10%

11%

28%32%

20%21%

28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

McCain 50% 42% 44% 47% 53% 56% 52% 57%

Both 10% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 15% 13%

Neither / No difference 9% 9% 5% 4% 6% 4% 4% 4%

Undecided 11% 10% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7%

Obama 21% 28% 32% 28% 20% 19% 21% 19%

8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29




40%39%39%39%40%40%40%41% 41%42%41%

42%43%43%42%43%43%

42%41% 41%45%

47%48%48%47%47%45%46%45%

43%43% 45%45%44%45%45%45%44%

43%44%44%41%

11%12%12%13%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%13%12%12%11%12%14%13%14%14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 45% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40%

Obama 41% 44% 44% 43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47%

Barr 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Nader 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Unsure 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%

Week 1

Week 2

9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15

UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)




SUMMARY (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….

► … the economy tanked (63% said most important: 53/44)*

► … Bush disapproval (51% strongly disapproved: 82/16)

► … a “Change Election” (34%: 89/9)► … he raised more money ($639M to $360M

for McCain)► … the African-American turnout (11% in ’04;

13% in ’08: 95/4)




SUMMARY Cont. (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….

► … the Latino vote (9% of electorate; 67/31)► … the young voters (+1% in ’08 to 18%:

66/32)► … the gender gap (men = 47%: 49/48;

women = 53%: 56/43)► … a surge in turnout (17% did not vote in

’04: 71/27; increase from 124M to 126M)► … better organization (26% contacted by

Obama: 64/34; versus 18% contacted by McCain (38/60)

strategies in the 2008 presidential campaign christopher arterton dean of the gspm

Documents

change change

obamathis election

mccainthis election

bush http

elements of strategy

unamerican http

undecided voters

middleclass tax cut