strategic risk management and agribusiness
TRANSCRIPT
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Strategic Risk Management and Agribusiness
Farm Credit West Young Farmer and Rancher Executive Institute
Avila Beach, California Thursday, 21 February 2013
Steven Slezak, Lecturer
AGB – CAFES, Cal Poly
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“Risk management is not a checklist; it is a mentality that needs to be top-of-mind.”
– Frederick W. Smith, Chairman, President, CEO FedEx Corporation
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Need to Know the Costs • Costs are Determined by Industry Structure
• Difficult if You Don’t Know Costs of – labor – water, seed, fertilizer, feed, services – regulation – equipment – maintenance – shipping
• Most Don’t Know Cost of an Important Input
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What Does Money Cost? • Very Important Input
– what does money cost? – A = L + E – WACC = wdrd(1 – t) + were
• Part of Cost of Risk
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Risk and Uncertainty Are the Rule • Risk and Uncertainty are Not Well Understood • Tendency to Confuse Risk and Uncertainty • Uncertainty Implies Risk; Risk Implies Danger;
Danger Implies Loss • Risk is Quantifiable; Uncertainty is Not
– if we can measure we can try to manage – we can see it – if we can’t measure or see it, it is unknown, uncertain
• Examples?
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Greater Risk and Uncertainty Ahead • Typical Responses
– insurance (buy policies, build reserves) – focus on managing revenue – change inventory levels (buffer stocks) – diversify production geographically – pay down debt; deleverage; sell assets – reduce time exposure to risk – try to time markets – restructure operations
• Benchmark: Do Nothing; Hope for the Best
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Broad Trends Driving Risk • Global Demand for Agricultural Products
– growth rate of 2% to 3% per year • Increasing Productivity in Agriculture
– yield growth rate of 0.5% to 1.0% per year – needs to grow 1.5% per year to keep up with
population growth • Ag Biotech
– could increase productivity rate to 3% to 3.4% per year by 2030
Sources: The Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
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Re-examine Risk Management • No Risk, No Reward
– no one has problem with prices going up – when prices go down there is trouble – can’t have one without the other
• Ag Risk Understood Generally in Terms of – prices – yields – revenues
• Result: Risk Management Focus on Revenues
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Risk Represents a Cost • Company is Portfolio of Assets
– assets have value (A = L + E)
• Risk is About Future Losses • Managing Risk Incurs Costs Today
– insurance, opportunity, loss of assets, capital losses, etc.
• Reduces Present Value of Firm’s Operations – increased cost of capital
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What Risks to Manage? • Financial and Market Risk Are Most Familiar
– faced by most actors in supply chain – common tools and strategies available
• Many Variables to Consider – what is the scope of your market? – global, international, national, regional, local – who are your financial partners? – Farm Credit West, others (commercial, local,
regional, national, too-big-to-fail)
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Risk is Built In to the Industry Structure
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Where Are You in the Big Picture? • Risk Depends on Industry Structure • Supplier? Buyer? Producer? Distributor?
Processor? Exporter? Retailer? Ag Support Services? Established? New Entry?
• Substitute Products? Complementary Products? • What Are Their Specific Risks? • How Do Risks Differ by Role in Industry? • How Do You Fit into Supply Chain?
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How Do You Fit In?
Exporters
Processors
Distributors/Brokers
Producers
Input Suppliers
US Markets
Retailers
Ag Support
Foreign Markets
Logistics
Finance
Technical
Services
Fina
ncia
l Flo
ws
Pro
duct
Flo
ws
Info
rmat
ion
Flow
s
Source: World Bank, ARD
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Source: dairyfootprint.org
Faml Oistribu lion
... ................ ...: Whey
Consumption End-of-life
Comvmer transport
U!G!ND
• : Oul·of~cope • ....... · Sequestration
'""J Agricullurol emissions
0 Refrigerant emissions
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Source: Glenn Seymour, ConAgra Foods
Demand-Driven Supply Chain (DDSC) is a set of capabilities that enables enhanced value chain performance and profitability
Old Way Of Thinking
Retailer Focus
Standard Assortment
Warehouse Orientation
Order Management
Demand Driven Value Chain Leveraging POS. and Predictive
Analytics
MANUFACTURER AND OUTSOURCEO SUPPUERS
············· .. ·· ........ •' ""' .· .. ~ _. .. .. " r •' .. ···
lnio<mallOil n ... . . . : . : . ·. . . \~ ·.. . ··. ·· ..... .. ..... .............
INTEGRATED MARKETING
New Way Of Thinking
Shopper Focus
Smart Assortment
Store Execution
Orientation
Consumption Management
New Data+ Greater Detail+ Faster Decisions= A New Way to Win
800l- & Company
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Source: http://guides.library.duke.edu/food_energy
THE FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN System lmpcJis I Stlflt>ly Ch.WI Stage I
Imports
~ ~: ~ ~---Eh....;e~._din-g ----. B:l~dln<J Gto~~~o~ "'-.!r.lrl:S~ I Seed Production
f~et$ •
\ Mi»chin~ ~ I ADricu•ur.liGiowirMJ
I
\ Woller ' ~ + i{tetOY ~ c / : Packlr11J
Tra~porl "»J1. ~ ~ M.llet~s I Pt ocesslrMJ
Equ[JHner~ 1\ ___ ...._ · ---Chernic<lls \ [ '{ FttrJI M~lllfacttu
WJC&t "- I MtiCh<lfltS
EMt W \ Jx • t--'-'"- '-'' _t•o_n_--1 tF~ _.....,.. 'Mtol sal t s
I ! I I
!
Outputs
!1 I
I I I ! I J I I.___, ! .__Elll_•_ll,._n_eu_• _,._...,..r __ ,-=;:::::::, ~ PM""' 4.
Retailer$ I Food Sef'Aee Green Glocets I
W•lller ~ / EnetOY
t--y-,,-"n_s_po-,t---1 r----.....J u
EquiJiment I CONSUMERS
I I ! I I I
I
Exports
Ail Emissions
W aste
Ail Emisslous
W<1S11e Wolter
W<~ste
Ail EmiUIOIIS
Alf EmlssiOus
Waste
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Hard to See the Forest for the Trees • Risk Picture is Very Complicated • We See Only Our Link and a Few Others • Our Links Fail; Disaster for Us (and
Possibly Others) – certainly trouble for others
• Their Links Fail; Disaster for Them (and Possibly Us) – other links fail beyond our control – risk? or uncertainty?
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Some Goals • Minimize Risks
– cannot eliminate risks
• Understand Risk-Return Relationship – maximize returns for risks we take – a definition of efficiency
• Learn from Failure – cannot avoid failure
• Assure Failure is not Catastrophic – need to manage failure
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Re-examine Risk Management • Need to Diversify Our View of Risk
– what are our immediate risks? – what are risks of those we are linked to? – what are other risks in the system?
• Understand Our Risks – risks we take – risks others take that we are exposed to
• Understand Risks We Present to Others – risks we expose others to
• Risk Management is Strategic For System
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Rice Prices, 1970 to 2010
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Rice Yields, 1970 to 2010
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Orange Prices, 1970 to 2010
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Orange Yields, 1970 to 2010
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Strawberry Prices, 1970 to 2010
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Strawberry Yields, 1970 to 2010
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Almond Prices, 1970 to 2010
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Almond Yields, 1970 to 2010
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What About Costs? • Must Manage Revenue Side • Costs are Major Source of Risk
– land, fertilizer, energy, water, seed, weather, pests, disease, regulations, technology, food safety, foreign currency
– all require management
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Nominal and inflation-adjusted farm production expenses, 1970-2013F
$ bllhon
375~------------------------------------------------~
300
225
150
~ Nominal production expenses 75 ~
0+--r~--r-~-r~--r-~-r~~r-~-r~--r-~-.~--r-~~
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013F
··~ F =Forecast. Values are adjusted using the chain-type GOP deflator, 2005-=100. • • • Source: Fann Income and Wealth Statistics, Economic Research Servace, USDA. • • • Data as of February 11 , 2013. ERS
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Principal crop-related and fuel/oil expenses, 2003-2013F
$ bllhon 30~------------------------------------------------~
23
15
Pestlades
8
0 +---~---------.~--~----.----r----.----.----.---_,
2003 2004 2005 2006
F = Forecast.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
··~ ••• Source: Fann Income and Wealth Statistics, Economic Research Servace, USDA. • • • Data as of February 11 , 2013. ERS
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Anhydrous Ammonia, 1970 to 2012
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CA No 2 Diesel Prices, 1995 to 2012
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Interest Rates, 1962 to 2012
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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Regulatory Risk, Economic Loss
Source: The Impact of California Regulatory Compliance Costs on California Orange Producer Profitability Jay E. Noel, Mechel Paggi, and Fumiko Yamazaki, July 2008.
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Government payments, 2003-2013F
$ bllhon 25 ,....-------------1 • All other payments 31
• Conservabon payments
20 Payments that are a funcbon of crop pnces 2/ • Fixed payments 1/
15
10
5
O 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
F ::: Forecast. 1/ Producbon flexibili ty contract payments and direct payments whereby payment rates are fixed by legislabon. 21 Counter-cyclical payments, average crop revenue election (ACRE) payments, loan deficiency payments, marketing loan gams, and certificate exchange gains in which oommodity payment rates vary with market prices. The certificate exchange program ended after making payments for the 2009 crop year. 31 All other payments include disaster relief payments, tobacco transition payments, and dairy program payments. Source: FSA, NRCS, and CCC. Data as of Februa 11, 2013.
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Hope is Not an Option • Risk Management is a Strategic Function
– core competitive advantage • Major Management Responsibility
– operations, harvest, distribution, sales – operations and finance intersect in margins – integral part of strategic activities – contributes to success or failure of company – needs daily attention, high level of expertise, and
good information
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Reconsider Our Treatment of Risk • Mistake to Focus Mainly on Prices
– ignores effect of financing and capital costs
• Must Focus on Revenues and Costs – Margins • Margin Risk Management is Key Strategic
Competence
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Two (Related) Types of Ag Risk • Operations and Financing
– price, cost, and yield – debt (including interest expense)
• They Can be Related – debt incurred to cover thin or negative margins
• Address Margin Risk Perspective – revenue is volatile; a function of price and yield – costs are volatile – margin risk results
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Managing Margin Risk • Operational and Financial Risks Intersect in
Margins – low prices, high costs, low yield – margins indicative of risks in other areas – manage margins and address broader risk issues
• Important Strategic Function – success or failure can depend on margin
management strategy • Revenues, Input Costs, and Yields Volatile • Margin Volatility Even Greater (2× to 4×)
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U .S. Farm Gross Cash Income Total Cash Receipts Plus Other Farm-Related Income
• Record Farm Cash Receipts expected In 2012 & 2013
• Other Farm-Related Income at historic levels in 2011 & 2012 drought years
• Crop insurance indemnity payments is major component of Other Farm-Related Income
Ill c: 0
$400
$350
$300
$250
~ $200
SlSO
S100
$50
$0 ._ .......... ~~--.-...... ~--~~--~----~~ 1998 1999 2000 200 1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 1 2012F2013F
• Other Farm-Re ated rncome Crops a. LJ~restock • Government Paymer~ts
Source: 1998 - 2011. USDA 1l February 2013 2012F - 2013f . ~re & comp ny f ore t i.'IS or 13 Febru ry 2013
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Net farm income and net cash income, 2000-2013F
$ bllhon
150~------------------------------------------------~
120
90
80 / Net farm income (and 10-year average)
30
0+-------.-------~------~------~------~------~~ 2000 2002 2004 2008 2008 2010
F = Forecast. Source: Farm lnoome and Wealth Statistics, Economic Research Servace, USDA. Data as of February 11 , 2013.
2012F 2013F
··~ ••• ••• ERS
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Finance: a Central Strategic Function • Credit Harder to Acquire • Agribusinesses Have to Manage Margins
− stabilize margins at some acceptable range
• Agribusinesses to Become More Cost Sensitive − more input needed to meet additional demand − reluctant to let costs eat into margins
• Agribusinesses to Become More Efficient − demand same from suppliers
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Farm Credit Administration Says • A Borrower Needs to Demonstrate to Lenders
He (or She): – has risk management plans in place – understands risk management practices (strengths
and weaknesses) – can report on your evolving risk management
practices – can maintain sufficient working capital and
liquidity for bad times
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Farm Credit Administration Says • Borrowers Should Have
– business and marketing plans – a succession plan – hedging and insurance strategies – separate line of credit for risk management
activities
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Managing Revenue Risk
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Managing Cost Risk
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Managing Margin Risk: Two Goals • Minimize Volatility
– revenues – costs
• Maintain Revenues in Excess of Costs – margin will squeeze; that’s OK – minimize chance of going negative
• Do These Simultaneously
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Managing Margins
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Margin Management at Work: The Case
• Iceberg Lettuce Grower and Shipper – leases 1500 acres in Salinas Valley – two harvests a year – 850 cases per acre average – borrows 50% of cultural costs – rule of thumb: hedge 80% of production
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The Problem • Farm Credit Wants Operator to Manage Margins
– default risk too high – operational (not credit) issue – condition of credit – manages risk to revenue using forwards – hedge ratio insufficient – no management of risk to costs
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Revenues Driven by Spot and Yield Year Average Spot Price
Yield (40 lbs per carton)
2004 $ 8.10 850 2005 $ 7.93 804 2006 $ 10.75 725 2007 $ 12.38 830 2008 $ 11.93 824 2009 $ 9.08 928 2010 $ 12.88 983 Mean $ 10.44 849
Correlation Matrix Yield Average Price
Yield (40 lbs per carton)
1 0.2082 Average Spot Price 0.2082 1
Forward Contract Prices Vary with Spot Price Between $11.50 and $12.50 on Sliding Scale ($0.25 Increments)
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0.94
0.33
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
+Yield / Stochastic (Empirical Distribution)
+Price / Stochastic (Empirical Distribution)
Coefficient Value
Total Revenue, 50% Leverage, $12.50 Contract Regression Coefficients
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Seed $144.00 Total Production Costs $7,457.06 Fertilizer $359.00 Weed Control/Thinning Labor $146.00 Cash Overhead per acre $130.00 Pest Management (includes PCA costs) $582.00 Land Rent per Acre $1,100.00
Water $280.00 Interest on Operating Capital (based on 6.275% per year on half of cultural cost) $38.98
Irrigation Labor $241.70 Total Overhead Cash Cost $1,268.98 Tractor Labor $148.35 Fuel $172.93 Depreciation and Interest on Investments $50.00 Tractor and Machinery Cost $255.58 Supervision and General Labor $105.00 Total per Acre Cost $8,776.04 Compost $50.00 Total Cultural Costs $2,484.56 Total Cost less Harvest Cost $3,803.54 Fresh Market Harvest Cost ($/Carton) Cut/Pack/Haul $5.85 Average Yeld/Acre (Cartons) 850 Total Harvest Cost (cooling, palletize, and sell) per acre $4,972.50
Production Costs (per Acre, Single Harvest)
Harvest Costs Variable (Yield Driven) Cultural Costs Fixed
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$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
$11,000
$12,000
$13,000
1 10
19
28
37
46
55
64
73
82
91
100
109
118
127
136
145
154
163
172
181
190
199
208
217
226
235
244
253
262
271
280
289
298
307
316
325
334
343
352
361
370
379
388
397
406
415
424
433
442
451
460
469
478
487
496
Sim
Res
ults
No Hedge, 50% Leverage
Total Revenue
Total Cost
σRevenue = $1464 σCost = $498
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$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
$11,000
$12,000
$13,000
1 10
19
28
37
46
55
64
73
82
91
100
109
118
127
136
145
154
163
172
181
190
199
208
217
226
235
244
253
262
271
280
289
298
307
316
325
334
343
352
361
370
379
388
397
406
415
424
433
442
451
460
469
478
487
496
Sim
Res
ults
100% Hedge, 50% Leverage, $12.50 Contract
Total Revenue
Total Cost
σRevenue = $894 σCost = $492
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8
7
cis -.. 14 J
3
2
1
0
l ! ":'"
No Hedge: Net Income, Total costs, Total Reven ...
0 ...
$7,111.07 .10,517.25 $8.771.25
• Tobol fleolau:
$4M.(7 500
$6,(1(11.18 .U,490.99
$6,997.71 .1 ... ~!10 500
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Hedge at $12.50: Net Income, Total costs, Totll Reven ... $3
90 .. .. 0. .. .
-$1,217.33 .. ,24$.0~ 51.48'1.1& ti,IJIII.I&
/il)l)
· -/!lot-..
• Tollll """"""'
Mnmm ~.96
-~ _, $:1.0)Sl.U !5l:lj .,.. $1101..54
'---~ VII""' SI)O
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The Hedge • Analysis Says 100% Hedge at $12.50 is Sensible • In Practice, 80% Hedge Ratio
– acting as though contract price is $11.25 – locking in a reduction in net income
• Why Take the Risk? – retail market and supply chain dynamics – strategy not focussed on minimizing margin risk – trading upside for chance at extra $150 per acre – self-insured; moral hazard; “What the hell?” attitude
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-$5,000 -$4,000 -$3,000 -$2,000 -$1,000 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000
Cum
Pro
babi
lity
Net Income
80% Hedge Ratio (@ $11.25 Contract Equivalent)
All Hedge, $11.25 Contract
No Hedge
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-$5,000 -$4,000 -$3,000 -$2,000 -$1,000 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000
Cum
Pro
babi
lity
Net Income
Net Income with 50% Leverage
All Hedge, $12.50 Contract
All Hedge, $11.25 Contract
No Hedge
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-$5,000 -$3,000 -$1,000 $1,000 $3,000 $5,000
Cum
Pro
babi
lity
Net Income
P&L For Resulting Hedge
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80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-$1,000 -$900 -$800 -$700 -$600 -$500 -$400 -$300 -$200 -$100 $0 $100
Cum
Pro
babi
lity
Change in Net Income
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Strategic Implications • Manage to Stabilize Margins
– focus on managing costs as well as revenue
– no perfect hedge; basis risk remains
• Use Crop Insurance When Needed
• Optimize Leverage – pay down debt if overleveraged
– don’t overextend financial situation
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Strategic Implications • Prepare to Adapt and Change
– in other words, research, develop, innovate
• There Will be Failure; Risk Taking Required – small scale failure (no catastrophes)
– fail quickly, learn, move on
– risk management more important than ever
• Innovation Creates Value – share risks and benefits with others in supply chain
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Margin Risk Management Benefits • Improve Financial Position
– build up financial reserves
• Provides for Moderate Growth – costs of capital should increase in future
• Strengthens Cost Controls
• Improves Operational Efficiencies
• Requires Focus on Strategic Investments
• Makes Your Lender Happy
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Data Sources • Dr. Jay Noel, Chair, Agribusiness, Cal Poly
• University of California Cooperative Extension (2009)
• USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News
• Monterey County (CA), Office of the Agricultural Commissioner
• Proprietary Sources
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Contact Information For additional information, please contact:
Steven Slezak, Lecturer Agribusiness Department College of Agriculture, Food and Environmental Sciences Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, California 93407 Phone: 805-756-5008 e-mail: [email protected]